LTA's MLB Plays

[apurvaas]

waiting for the other one... Yesterday missed last play and i don't want that :P
i will keep checking before every game had to put the reminded in phone.. wish you had other ways to let your followers know when you put the play..
Cant ask you to tweet as you don't use twitter..
Thanks LTA for all your plays and analysis.. Learning a lot from you
I feel you are one of the Sharps in the industry and if you go tout any given day, I will be a paid client (which you said you won't.. again i am sad as i hate missing your plays, if you go tout, you have to email your plays lol... just kidding man...)


Thanks a lot once again!

[Les_Nuts]

Love zona tonight, just waiting to see how the giants blow this for me. If they lose this I will find it hard to bet them again.

[TC Woods]

Love zona tonight, just waiting to see how the giants blow this for me. If they lose this I will find it hard to bet them again.

You gonna take the -1 or ML?

[Les_Nuts]

I've already got them ml and will add a little run line as I can't get -1 at my books

[meader99]

I've already got them ml and will add a little run line as I can't get -1 at my books

Yeah, I gotta take them -1.5. Still like it.

[Redscot]

I've already got them ml and will add a little run line as I can't get -1 at my books

Nor can I Les, but all you have to do is put they amount you risk at -1 1/2 as the amount to win on the ML, that will give you the -1 ratio.

For instance Pinny atm:

risk 655 to win 500 m/l
risk 500 to win 650 R/L

you pretty much get even odds in this case and a one run victory gives a push.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/12/2012

Play #1

Reds/Nationals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop in price as the morning progresses so im locking this one up now at -110. The reds have not seen much of Gio and that "unfamiliarity" gives him the edge. I am a big Latos guy and he needs a bounceback performance. The reds bats are not as sharp now as they will be later in the season which gives us some value on this play. I have this game set at 6.45 giving us just over a run of value. It would take a final score of 8 to beat us and I dont think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Cubs under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I would rather get the plus odds and risk the push than pay -130 for the hook. There is nicer weather than yesterday but these are two pitchers we will be backing all year. I have this game set at 6.1 and I usually like a full run of variance with the books' line, but I think this one stays under and im rolling tjat way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Diamondbacks -1 RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Most dback hitters have faced bass before and know what to expect. AZ is sporting a full lineup tonight with their biggest bats in there and they should be ready to roll after getting limited by luebke to one run last night (where was that last week when we backed luebke on the under). This is a "public" play with very little moneyline moves and the money has gone back and forth. Nevertheless, kennedy is the better pitcher for a better team with a better lineup that should be sharp tonight. That's not always a recipe for success but I think it will be enough tonifht to cash. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the diamondbacks on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[Les_Nuts]

Nor can I Les, but all you have to do is put they amount you risk at -1 1/2 as the amount to win on the ML, that will give you the -1 ratio.

For instance Pinny atm:

risk 655 to win 500 m/l
risk 500 to win 650 R/L

you pretty much get even odds in this case and a one run victory gives a push.

Yeah I often have to do this to create a synthetic -1 line. Giants gave me a sweat in the 9th as I expected but pulled through. I am liking marlins a bit but will probably pass

[mikea33]

I like Marlins as well.
I took
-1.5 .5 to win .7
ml .7x to win .5

Thanks lta

[Sidetracked]

how about -1.5 runline on dbacks?? or just roll with the ML?

[Les_Nuts]

how about -1.5 runline on dbacks?? or just roll with the ML?

Check redscots post above, that way you can create a synthetic -1 line as if dbacks win by 1 then it is a push

[Vasco]

Yep. If D-Backs lose by 2 or more, you will lose a little more than if you were able to get -1. On the flip side, you'll win a little more with -1.5 and ML if the D-Backs win by 2+. If the D-Backs win by 1, you push either way.

[mikea33]

lets get this zona game for a winning day!

[mikea33]

Kennedy is throwing DARTS. 17 out of 20 batters have 1st pitch strikes or something like that........

[bmur714]

Cash that baby!!! And a little extra with the ML.. Thank you les and red for the little tip

Doin work LTA!

[mikea33]

Thanks LTA

Chris Young hit a rope for the run-line cover in the 8th

[apurvaas]

any thought on AZ/col over 8.5 tomorrow?

[pacocn]

Nice night Lta all the way around

[Sidetracked]

happy i hoppped on arizona with 1.5 and ML thanks LTA

[Redscot]

Nice finish to a good day. . Only ump we know so far today is Schrieber in Washington who rocks one of the stingiest strike zones, game opened at 8 and is down to a heavily juiced 7 over.

Lot of 8ish totals today LTA, what do you think? First glance:

That Yank total has me .
Boston/Tampa seems high too
If WSox game hits 9 gonna be hard for me not to go under there.
Brew Crew +$ intrigues, despite travel, kind of a Jurrjens fade
Could get interested in Col under
Oakland at +150, hmmmm

Looking forward to another day at the grind.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/12/2012 Recap

2 - 1 = +1.01x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

15 - 12 = +3.03x

Good luck on Friday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/13/2012

Play #1

Diamonbacks/Rockies under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Hudson has pitched well against the rockies in the past (small sample) and nicasio has never faced colorado. AZ has not found their offensive rhythm without drew and I think nicasio can take advantage of AZ's unfamiliarity with his sinker/slider by forcing ground ball outs. Last year, nicasio was lights out at home. There is no certainty thay he will pitch that great at coors again, but I will take my chances with a guy who has a GB/FB over 1.6 for his career. We all know hudson's numbers and even you think he will regress somewhat like I do, he is more than capable of giving us a quality start. There is a slight chance this goes up to a juiced up under at 9, but I think we are more likely to see sharp money hit the under based on theses SP's and force the juice on the under at 8.5. I have this gane set at 7.55 giving us almost a full run of value and it will take a final score of 9 to beat us. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[guil0000]

I was just looking at that game and was leaning pretty heavily on the Rockies for most of the reasons you mentioned. Any thoughts on this? I just think the Rockies hit righties better then Arizona does and I feel like pitchers are most likely washes

[TC Woods]

Found this at another site, not sure if it's common knowledge

Top 5 Bullpens ERA: (1) Pirates 1.59 (2) Arizona 1.83 (3) White Sox 2.08 (4) NYY 2.11 (5) Colorado 2.25


Worse 5 Bullpens ERA: (1) Tampa Bay 8.03 (2) Cleveland 6.55 (3) Chicago Cubs 6.06 (4) Boston 5.89 (5) SF 5.63


Top 5 Starting Rotations ERA: (1) Philadelphia 1.60 (2) Kansas City 1.85 (3) Washington 1.99 (4) St. Louis 2.28 (5) Texas 2.42


Worse 5 Starting Rotations ERA: (1) Boston 6.68 (2) Minnesota 6.68 (3) SF 5.56 (4) Milwaukee 5.54 (5) Colorado 5.34

[Redscot]

Schrieber in Washington -----------tight strike zone
Dimuro in New York
Johnson in Chicago ----------------tight strike zone
Emmel in K.C. ------------------generous strike zone
Randazzo in Boston -----------------

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/13/2012

Play #1

Diamonbacks/Rockies under (8.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Hudson has pitched well against the rockies in the past (small sample) and nicasio has never faced colorado. AZ has not found their offensive rhythm without drew and I think nicasio can take advantage of AZ's unfamiliarity with his sinker/slider by forcing ground ball outs. Last year, nicasio was lights out at home. There is no certainty thay he will pitch that great at coors again, but I will take my chances with a guy who has a GB/FB over 1.6 for his career. We all know hudson's numbers and even you think he will regress somewhat like I do, he is more than capable of giving us a quality start. There is a slight chance this goes up to a juiced up under at 9, but I think we are more likely to see sharp money hit the under based on theses SP's and force the juice on the under at 8.5. I have this gane set at 7.55 giving us almost a full run of value and it will take a final score of 9 to beat us. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Mets/Phillies under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wright should return but that broken pinkie will take some adjustment. Both pitchers have performed well against these lineups and the bullens are strong. Both lineups are struggling just a bot right now and I have this game set at 5.6. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Mets/Phillies under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Wright should return but that broken pinkie will take some adjustment. Both pitchers have performed well against these lineups and the bullens are strong. Both lineups are struggling just a bot right now and I have this game set at 5.6. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Looks like no Wright tonight, Turner manning 3rd. GL

On another note, threw a 1/4 unit on the Cubbies Action +170. Rain delayed....have a feeling if the Cards think it will be a stop and go game, won't put Wainwright through that.

[Redscot]

Whitesox game delayed because the grounds crew messed up on the batters boxes, . Cabrera came up with two outs in the first and pointed it out to the ump. Very early but Peavy looks sharp, and he'll need to be against this offense.

[Les_Nuts]

I'm liking mets tt under 3 with no wright and lee pitching

[bleedtoledo]

I'm liking mets tt under 3 with no wright and lee pitching

I really like that, too. Juiced at 40 points though so I'm just gonna lay off this game. Good luck guys, rootin for the under

[JM92]

wowwww

[dlunc3]

that is the worst beat of the yr including nba

[Dmil]

Daniel Murphy

[dlunc3]

slow rolling right to him and the 2nd baseman allows it to roll right between his legs

[BiffTFinancial]

Sick, sick beat on Mets/Phillies under. Daniel Murphy is a real piece of shit.