LTA's MLB Plays

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 09:17 AM

Ok, I have too much time on my hands this week, but I'd thought I'd share this on Baseball hall of famer Rube Waddell. This from the web site Bleacher Report:

Waddell, a Hall of Fame pitcher who won 193 games as one of the top pitchers at the turn of the century, would not have been allowed anywhere near a baseball field in today's world.

He would often leave the dugout and chase firetrucks on their way to fires, and he was easily distracted by fans who would wave shiny objects in the stands. But it goes on from there, as he wrestled alligators in the offseason and reportedly forgot how many times he was married.
He was an admitted alcoholic, and still, and many now speculate that he had either ADD, autism or some form of mental retardation. While he was one of the best pitchers to ever toe the rubber, he was a loose cannon to say the least and far from an ideal teammate.

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 09:19 AM

Cubs opened at 7.5, I assume that will be down to 7 in no time, Greinke's road splits notwithstanding.

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 09:28 AM

AT 7 +100 at mine

**No coincidences** · 04-12-12, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Liriano got into a really good groove down here in Winter ball, pounding the strike zone, and carried it over into spring training. I am cautiously bullish on him returning to form this year...4.36 era is where my numbers put him for the year....but he is a true enigma...at the rate he gets swinging strikes he is always just a step away from being dominant.

It's hard to ever get a true read on Liriano, which makes his games almost unbettable. He seems to have baseball ADD at times. He'll cruise through the lineup and then absolutely implode when you least expect it. If you think those days are behind him, be my guest and roll the dice with the Twins or the under. I just can't make that assumption yet.

I'm not a big Haren fan at all personally. I'd be careful toying with the under here, but that's just me.

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/12/2012

Play #1

Reds/Nationals under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

I expect this to drop in price as the morning progresses so im locking this one up now at -110. The reds have not seen much of Gio and that "unfamiliarity" gives him the edge. I am a big Latos guy and he needs a bounceback performance. The reds bats are not as sharp now as they will be later in the season which gives us some value on this play. I have this game set at 6.45 giving us just over a run of value. It would take a final score of 8 to beat us and I dont think it gets there. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Brewers/Cubs under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I would rather get the plus odds and risk the push than pay -130 for the hook. There is nicer weather than yesterday but these are two pitchers we will be backing all year. I have this game set at 6.1 and I usually like a full run of variance with the books' line, but I think this one stays under and im rolling tjat way for 1x. Good luck.

**No coincidences** · 04-12-12, 09:41 AM

I think Greinke's going to make a Cy push again this year. I watched him against the Cards the first time out and he was outstanding.

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

It's hard to ever get a true read on Liriano, which makes his games almost unbettable. He seems to have baseball ADD at times. He'll cruise through the lineup and then absolutely implode when you least expect it. If you think those days are behind him, be my guest and roll the dice with the Twins or the under. I just can't make that assumption yet.

I'm not a big Haren fan at all personally. I'd be careful toying with the under here, but that's just me.

Totally agree about Liriano NoCo. But you are gonna have to come at me with some reasoning for the Haren comment. His 28.2 WAR over the last 5 seasons places him 4th overall major league starters in that time frame, behind Halladay, Sabbathia and Verlander. His SIERA and XFIP also both place him 4th over that time frame.

**No coincidences** · 04-12-12, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Totally agree about Liriano NoCo. But you are gonna have to come at me with some reasoning for the Haren comment. His 28.2 WAR over the last 5 seasons places him 4th overall major league starters in that time frame, behind Halladay, Sabbathia and Verlander. His SIERA and XFIP also both place him 4th over that time frame.

Yeah, I know all about his advanced stats. I've had him on my fantasy teams on and off for years. Just always seems to make the wrong pitch at the wrong time.

**bleedtoledo** · 04-12-12, 09:49 AM

Regarding Liriano, last year he was something like 0-5, he was on a terrible streak. I told my friend that I would have sent him to triple a. Watched the game later that day, they were talking about how manager & pitching coach decided they'd give him one last start...of course that last chance turned out to be his "no-no."

And if I were manager I wouldn't have given him that start!

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 10:26 AM

My local just moved off 8 back down to 7.5 for the twins under. That is a very strong lean, but I cant play it at less than 8 with all the big bats in the lineup today.

**streakyrocket22** · 04-12-12, 10:36 AM

LTA, any thoughts on the over 9 in Detroit?

**Les_Nuts** · 04-12-12, 11:48 AM

Huge movement in our favour on the first under

**NotJoshRay** · 04-12-12, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Dan Haren is every bit as Good as Weaver, and if you go off advanced stats, better. Compare there last 4 years siera and xfip. Weaver is just sexier or something

, Haren plays 2nd fiddle.

Liriano got into a really good groove down here in Winter ball, pounding the strike zone, and carried it over into spring training. I am cautiously bullish on him returning to form this year...4.36 era is where my numbers put him for the year....but he is a true enigma...at the rate he gets swinging strikes he is always just a step away from being dominant.

The problem is that the step is always going to be use of his slider. I'm sure you know about his use rate of that pitch going down because of the strain it does to his elbow. Its pretty hard to guage Liriano for a one game handicap. He is only the Liriano we hope to see everytime when he throws the slider alot. How can we honestly predict how much he uses the slider for any given game...and in my opinion he will never throw that pitch again at the level he needs to in order to be the prodigy he was going to be. So he might have a few good starts but like Red said. Its going to be so inconsistent and random.

**mbs4** · 04-12-12, 01:11 PM

Does anyone have a site where you can pick a day and get a player's stats for that season prior to that day. Teamrankings.com offers this for team stats but not player stats. Thanks.

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 01:24 PM

Baseball reference

**mbs4** · 04-12-12, 01:37 PM

Any way to do it other than one player at a time and manually selecting all their games before that date? I could just download everyone's game log and figure it faster than that.

**cboogie** · 04-12-12, 01:47 PM

Anyone worried about the cin wsh under with 2 on the board and 5 innings left? I am

**Vasco** · 04-12-12, 01:56 PM

Why even bother scoreboard watching if you're nervous when it's 2-0 in the 5th and the under is 7.5?

**jbess** · 04-12-12, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by cboogie

Anyone worried about the cin wsh under with 2 on the board and 5 innings left? I am

Not at all.

**bmur714** · 04-12-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by cboogie

Anyone worried about the cin wsh under with 2 on the board and 5 innings left? I am

I'm not... we can go scoreless for 8 innings then get screwed at the end as well... It's way too early to be worried about anything so pop a xanax and chill

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 03:19 PM

greinke got shelled.

barring 4 runs in extras in the nats game we should break even on the early plays.

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 03:23 PM

Thats your ballgame.

Thanks LTA

**WVU9494** · 04-12-12, 03:26 PM

Break even? You need to add in the juice. I had $150 on each and lost $50

QUOTE=mikea33;14428888]greinke got shelled.

barring 4 runs in extras in the nats game we should break even on the early plays.[/QUOTE]

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 03:31 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Break even? You need to add in the juice. I had $150 on each and lost $50

Well, then you bet a bad line because everyone else bet the cubs under at +100 or +105 like I recommended and broke even.

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 03:31 PM

WVU

What juice?

Milwaukee was +105.....lol

**mikea33** · 04-12-12, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Well, then you bet a bad line because everyone else bet the cubs under at +100 like I recommended and broke even.

Yes lol.
That means you got -150 on the milwaukee under.

you need to find a new book or unless you got the hook at 7.5, which LTA said was not worth it

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 03:35 PM

Nothing you can do about that Greinke performance, it happens. Would take that play again when it presents itself. Nice call in Washington

.

**WVU9494** · 04-12-12, 03:46 PM

Used 5 dimes son. Now down $2650 in 2 months just on these picks (and basketball)

Originally posted by mikea33

Yes lol.
That means you got -150 on the milwaukee under.

you need to find a new book or unless you got the hook at 7.5, which LTA said was not worth it

**IXL** · 04-12-12, 03:50 PM

Nice call on the under on the nats game.

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by WVU9494

Used 5 dimes son. Now down $2650 in 2 months just on these picks (and basketball)

How do you lose money if you took the cubs under at plus odds, son? If you didnt take it at plus odds like I recommended, then you have no one to blame but yourself. If youve lost so much, you should fade and see how that works out. In the meantime, I'll just keep on grinding out profit in both sports like I always have and always will.

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 03:59 PM

Arizona looks good. A little "square" but interesting nonetheless.

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Arizona looks good. A little "square" but interesting nonetheless.

Square or no square, I expect them to bounce back with vengeance tonight. Gibson and his coaching staff are a high intensity bunch, team will be up for this one. Although I think Kennedy's sub 3 era last year won't happen again, he remains a very good pitcher and has owned S.D..What do you think of the RL -1 in this situation to get a little more value?

**Redscot** · 04-12-12, 04:07 PM

On another note LTA, I think Bumgarner is fully capable of repeating last years success. Vogelsong, not so much.

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Square or no square, I expect them to bounce back with vengeance tonight. Gibson and his coaching staff are a high intensity bunch, team will be up for this one. Although I think Kennedy's sub 3 era last year won't happen again, he remains a very good pitcher and has owned S.D..What do you think of the RL -1 in this situation to get a little more value?

If I play it, it will probably be at (-1)(+101). I think if AZ wins, it will be by more than one run and it makes sense to risk the push in order to avoid the heavy juice in the case of an upset. Good luck buddy.

**Love The Action** · 04-12-12, 04:10 PM

What sucks is that we could have cashed the cubs game if not for the error which allowed the 7th and 8th runs.....oh well onto the next one.