LTA's MLB Plays

[bmur714]

SlickRick, if you missed this in LTA's NBA thread check it out. Some useful information is discussed about sports odds making and gambling.

18mins in they specifically talk about setting the lines, sharp betters, etc...

To help improve your knowledge of this business. This sheds some true light on how lines are set in the "new world" of sports investing. Enjoy!

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=4560

[dlunc3]

bay drops a pretty standard deep fly ball with two outs to allow 2 to score and basically rape our under

[SlickRick1382]

the 3 or 4 "sharps" on sbr arent gonna move a line... and even with that 62%, there could be more money on the 38% side as we have no clue how much money is being wagered

I wasn't referring to sharps on SBR at all. I'm not that naive to think the 3 or 4 so called sharps on here would move a line. I wasn't able to be more detailed since I was at a client and commenting from my Ipad.

Regardless, I was referring to people I know here in the NY / NJ area that bet major figures on games ....

[SlickRick1382]

SlickRick, if you missed this in LTA's NBA thread check it out. Some useful information is discussed about sports odds making and gambling.

18mins in they specifically talk about setting the lines, sharp betters, etc...

Thank you very much for the link and info. Appreciate it ...

[Love The Action]

bay drops a pretty standard deep fly ball with two outs to allow 2 to score and basically rape our under

Just got home from a LONG day of work to see your post about this bullshit play and then watch Lester give up 4 runs with two out. Unreal

[speez11]

at least its only the 5th

[dlunc3]

Just got home from a LONG day of work to see your post about this bullshit play and then watch Lester give up 4 runs with two out. Unreal

yea, i mean it wasnt the easiest play in the world, but you gotta make that catch... and yea nothing like watching lester implode after looking solid through 4 innings thusfar

[dlunc3]

crazy how this boston team just finds ways to screw up

[speez11]

crazy how this boston team just finds ways to screw up

[brucethebear]

yea, i mean it wasnt the easiest play in the world, but you gotta make that catch... and yea nothing like watching lester implode after looking solid through 4 innings thusfar

I agree, it was a regulation back hander that should have been taken.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/24/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back the Nationals in this spot at a decent price. Richard is no Gonzalez, he is a poor man's Gonzalez. Gio is the better ground ball pitcher, which is Richard's specialty. As far as strikeouts, it's not even close as Gonzalez dominates with a lifetime K% of 22% to Richard's 15%. Offensively, these teams are not that far apart and the Pads actually have the advantage in some advanced categories. However, the Nationals completely dominate when it comes to the bullpen. Considering that the Padres have not excelled at situational hitting like the Nats, I give the edge to Washington on Tuesday. I have the Nats set at -118 giving us 8 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/24/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back the Nationals in this spot at a decent price. Richard is no Gonzalez, he is a poor man's Gonzalez. Gio is the better ground ball pitcher, which is Richard's specialty. As far as strikeouts, it's not even close as Gonzalez dominates with a lifetime K% of 22% to Richard's 15%. Offensively, these teams are not that far apart and the Pads actually have the advantage in some advanced categories. However, the Nationals completely dominate when it comes to the bullpen. Considering that the Padres have not excelled at situational hitting like the Nats, I give the edge to Washington on Tuesday. I have the Nats set at -118 giving us 8 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

I think we see an early run on Sanchez so I'm locking this one in now. I think we are getting 10 cents of value here and I suspect we see Sanchez make some adjustments since earlier in the year when he was rocked by the Indians. The whole world will be on the Indians with the old-man Lowe pitching and Cabrera returning at shortstop. However, I think the Royals break out of the slump behind a solid outing by Sanchez. KC has the better lineup and know what to expect from Lowe who might not make the adjustments that Sanchez will, considering that Lowe pitched pretty well. As I mentioned, I have this game set at +115 giving us 10 cents of value here and I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

[Laissez Faire]

thanks for the write ups LTA

[SlickRick1382]

Royals poised to finally win one !!!!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/23/2012 Recap

2 - 1 - 1 = +0.85x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

40 - 31 = +8.38x

Another push with the Red Sox, but that was the risk we took playing the -1RL and we move on. Good luck.

[SlickRick1382]

A plus money day is always plus money.

Can never be mad a that. Good work bro .... Look forward to tomorrow ....

[LoneStar]

LTA been following your threads for some time now, nice write-ups and congrats on all the hits yesterday. If you don't mine me asking whats your thoughts on the following 2 games

4/24
NYY@TEX - I'm leaning TEX with Yu Darvish although the Japanese sensation hasn't been completely seamless despite having the better ERA (3.57) over our counter partner. I have reason too believe that we have TEX at a fair price -139 as TEX knots the series up 1-1.

SEA@DET

I'm leaning SEA+172 here due to the fact that Vargas is the better pitcher with plus money in this match and what better time for SEA to snap a 4 game losing streak! SEA, has had some success with DET last year in which SEA limited DET too a 4 run average winning 6 of 10.

Whats your thoughts...?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/24/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back the Nationals in this spot at a decent price. Richard is no Gonzalez, he is a poor man's Gonzalez. Gio is the better ground ball pitcher, which is Richard's specialty. As far as strikeouts, it's not even close as Gonzalez dominates with a lifetime K% of 22% to Richard's 15%. Offensively, these teams are not that far apart and the Pads actually have the advantage in some advanced categories. However, the Nationals completely dominate when it comes to the bullpen. Considering that the Padres have not excelled at situational hitting like the Nats, I give the edge to Washington on Tuesday. I have the Nats set at -118 giving us 8 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

I think we see an early run on Sanchez so I'm locking this one in now. I think we are getting 10 cents of value here and I suspect we see Sanchez make some adjustments since earlier in the year when he was rocked by the Indians. The whole world will be on the Indians with the old-man Lowe pitching and Cabrera returning at shortstop. However, I think the Royals break out of the slump behind a solid outing by Sanchez. KC has the better lineup and know what to expect from Lowe who might not make the adjustments that Sanchez will, considering that Lowe pitched pretty well. As I mentioned, I have this game set at +115 giving us 10 cents of value here and I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Dodgers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm a little leery about this play as I think it might hit plus odds, but it also has a nice shot at getting juice big time on the under. Minor has unfamiliarity on this side and is starting to round into shape. We have been backing him a lot and will continue to do so in the right spots. Harang is nothing spectacular but will generally give you a quality start and that's all we will need in this game. Both offenses are very solid in the top 3rd of most advanced stats and the Braves have killed Harang in the past, but I feel he will pitch better tomorrow. There are no weather factors supporting the over the ump is Cousins who is relatively neutral. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Lakers714]

I like the Nats in SD as well but it just seems too easy. I know Richard is SDs best hurler but the Pads r horrendous. I dunno. Is there a reason not to unload on the Nats?

[Love The Action]

LTA been following your threads for some time now, nice write-ups and congrats on all the hits yesterday. If you don't mine me asking whats your thoughts on the following 2 games

4/24
NYY@TEX - I'm leaning TEX with Yu Darvish although the Japanese sensation hasn't been completely seamless despite having the better ERA (3.57) over our counter partner. I have reason too believe that we have TEX at a fair price -139 as TEX knots the series up 1-1.

SEA@DET

I'm leaning SEA+172 here due to the fact that Vargas is the better pitcher with plus money in this match and what better time for SEA to snap a 4 game losing streak! SEA, has had some success with DET last year in which SEA limited DET too a 4 run average winning 6 of 10.

Whats your thoughts...?

I don't like answering these types of questions because I don't like talking people out of winning plays. However, you have to realize that if I am not playing a game, it's because I don't like it for one reason or another. In this case, I don't like either of those plays and don't see any value.

Although Darvish should be the better pitcher, that is not necessarily the case. Kuroda is the most seasoned MLB pitcher and I am sure he will be motivated to go against a Pacific-based player that gets more press than he does. I like Kuroda and until I see more from Darvish, there is no way he should be priced around -145ish. I think the value is squarely on the Yankees in that game, but it's a better pass imho.

As far as Seattle, I don't see any value there as I think that price is fairly accurate. I don't know what makes you think Vargas is a better pitcher than Sherzer, but I would strongly disagree with that statement. To me, Detroit has the clear advantage in both pitcher and offense and that price is accurate. No play for me.

Good luck in whatever you choose and I hope you cash.

[Love The Action]

I like the Nats in SD as well but it just seems too easy. I know Richard is SDs best hurler but the Pads r horrendous. I dunno. Is there a reason not to unload on the Nats?

Because it's poor money management to "unload" on anyone. I am playing the Nats for 1x and they are no more than a 1x play. GL.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/23/2012 Recap

2 - 1 - 1 = +0.85x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

40 - 31 - 5 = +8.38x

I think I am going to keep track of pushes this season. Here is my updated record from last night with pushes for the year. Last year I had an inordinate amount of pushes and this season has started out the same way. Let's hope those pushes turn to wins soon....good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta, i am happy to see that you are on play 1 and 2 also,
gives me a great vote of confidence. Bol today .
I also like the Athletics in this spot.

[Les_Nuts]

Love the Nationals play, Gio has been looking great so far

[guil0000]

Any thoughts on Alvarez? I have been high on him last season but he has disappointed me so far this year.

[MidgetTossers]

Giants playing good ball right now and Cain is on the bump tonight..Hes given up 3 hits in his last 18 inning pitched..seems like a great price..Maybe too good?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/24/2012

Play #1

Nationals ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

No reason not to back the Nationals in this spot at a decent price. Richard is no Gonzalez, he is a poor man's Gonzalez. Gio is the better ground ball pitcher, which is Richard's specialty. As far as strikeouts, it's not even close as Gonzalez dominates with a lifetime K% of 22% to Richard's 15%. Offensively, these teams are not that far apart and the Pads actually have the advantage in some advanced categories. However, the Nationals completely dominate when it comes to the bullpen. Considering that the Padres have not excelled at situational hitting like the Nats, I give the edge to Washington on Tuesday. I have the Nats set at -118 giving us 8 cents of value and I am rolling with the Nationals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Royals ML (+125) 1x (Locked)

I think we see an early run on Sanchez so I'm locking this one in now. I think we are getting 10 cents of value here and I suspect we see Sanchez make some adjustments since earlier in the year when he was rocked by the Indians. The whole world will be on the Indians with the old-man Lowe pitching and Cabrera returning at shortstop. However, I think the Royals break out of the slump behind a solid outing by Sanchez. KC has the better lineup and know what to expect from Lowe who might not make the adjustments that Sanchez will, considering that Lowe pitched pretty well. As I mentioned, I have this game set at +115 giving us 10 cents of value here and I am rolling with the Royals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Braves/Dodgers under (7.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I'm a little leery about this play as I think it might hit plus odds, but it also has a nice shot at getting juice big time on the under. Minor has unfamiliarity on this side and is starting to round into shape. We have been backing him a lot and will continue to do so in the right spots. Harang is nothing spectacular but will generally give you a quality start and that's all we will need in this game. Both offenses are very solid in the top 3rd of most advanced stats and the Braves have killed Harang in the past, but I feel he will pitch better tomorrow. There are no weather factors supporting the over the ump is Cousins who is relatively neutral. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Giants/Reds under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 6.46 giving us over one run of value and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[BigBoi]

I remember last year that your model loves games when Matt Latos is pitching. Today I guess isnt any different and rightfully so after SF flying in after a double dip with Cain on the bump.

[kts]

Cincinnati 5x
NY Mets 5x

[Blood Drake]

Units across sports

LTA and followers,

I am relatively new to sports betting. About 2 years on football and one year on hoops. I would like to start following baseball but was unsure of how to approach unit size in a sport with so many games each and everyday. I usually bet 1 - 5 units per play on the other sports ($100 on football and $50) on basketball. Bets are usually spreads and totals. How would you suggest transitioning that to wagering on baseball where games are ML or total runs? How do I select unit size when wagering on ML bets that have varying amounts?

Any helpful comments or directions to other resources would be greatly appreciated.

[absolutkaos]

LTA and followers,

I am relatively new to sports betting. About 2 years on football and one year on hoops. I would like to start following baseball but was unsure of how to approach unit size in a sport with so many games each and everyday. I usually bet 1 - 5 units per play on the other sports ($100 on football and $50) on basketball. Bets are usually spreads and totals. How would you suggest transitioning that to wagering on baseball where games are ML or total runs? How do I select unit size when wagering on ML bets that have varying amounts?

Any helpful comments or directions to other resources would be greatly appreciated.

I started the MLB season at about 1/2 of my unit size that I play in NBA. It really ultimately depends on the size of your bankroll, as with MLB, I'm finding that LTA offers up a fair number of games every day, and you want to be sure that your BR can "weather the storm" if a bad streak of variance hits.

LTA also mentioned its a good idea to start the season off with smaller units, and then as the stats improve his model, he would suggest moving up your unit to something that you feel more comfortable with.

In the NBA he has always said that you should be looking at the following ratio: (1 unit = 3-5% of BR)

I can only assume this carries over into MLB. Good luck with the MLB this year, it's my first year investing on MLB as well.

[Blood Drake]

Don't really have a static bankroll...probably something that I should look at after the beating I took the last two weeks in the NBA! Usually just bet whatever left over money I have that isn't paying bills or going into savings. Since this is new I think that would be good for baseball.

The ML still confuses me. Royals are ML +125 so I get betting 100 wins 125 but how does that work if I want to bet 20, 25, 50, etc for a unit size?

[BigBoi]

you win 1 and a quarter of what you are risking on the royals.
EX:
20 wins 25
25 wins 31.25
50 wins 62.50

For the Nats its the other way at -110 you risk
22 wins 20
27.50 wins 25
55 wins 50

[Blood Drake]

Thanks BigBoi, that makes more sense now. It was the negative MLs that were giving me problems. Guess now all I gotta do is follow the thread and learn how to spot value plays.

[BiffTFinancial]

Don't really have a static bankroll...probably something that I should look at after the beating I took the last two weeks in the NBA! Usually just bet whatever left over money I have that isn't paying bills or going into savings. Since this is new I think that would be good for baseball.

The ML still confuses me. Royals are ML +125 so I get betting 100 wins 125 but how does that work if I want to bet 20, 25, 50, etc for a unit size?

there are two ways of doing this:

(1) making all of your bets a flat amount (say, $100) regardless of whether you're playing + or - ML (so if -120, you lay 100 to win 83.33; if +120, you lay 100 to win 120)

(2) your + ML risk amount = your - ML to win amount (so if -120, lay 120 to win 100; if +120, lay 100 to win 120)

some people here use one, some the other. the difference it how you treat a ML fave, as both ways treat dog the same way.

i can't speak for LTA, and surely, his insight is more valuable than mine. i use the latter method (in part because i don't play big ML faves, prefer not to go above -120 and rarely above -130), and i think that the key is that you use whatever method you employ consistently.

hope this helps.