LTA's MLB Plays

[No coincidences]

no helton is going to cause you to not play the rockies?

Yeah, that's an interesting comment.

[Love The Action]

Yeah, that's an interesting comment.

You don't value a lifetime .322 hitter who had a solid season last year despite injury? His slow start simply tells me an upward tick is on its way. Especially against a crafty righty like McDonald who has held Gianni hitless in six ab's. When combined with price jump up to -115, the absence of Helton had kept me undecided. I may still play it, but much of the value is gone

[taxe91]

hey LTA, what does your model think of kyle drabek?

hes looking like he could have a year similar to weaver's 2011, his babip is underground (.230) compared to a career mark of .300 and his LOB% is ridiculously close to 90% at the moment. admittedly its only through 18 innings of work so far but would this make him a fade opportunity seeing as he is overvalued or would I look to ride his wave instead?

[WVU9494]

I can be just as big an ahole as you dude if you want to go that route. Many many times I have looked for lines within minutes of your posts and have NEVER found the same line. What's going on here?



Action;14556482]So your time is more valuable than mine? I take time to help and you continue to act like a douchebag. Have a nice life dude, I will waste no more time on you.[/QUOTE]

[BiffTFinancial]

I can be just as big an ahole as you dude if you want to go that route. Many many times I have looked for lines within minutes of your posts and have NEVER found the same line. What's going on here?



Action;14556482]So your time is more valuable than mine? I take time to help and you continue to act like a douchebag. Have a nice life dude, I will waste no more time on you.

clearly, there is no doubt about your first statement.

i'll try to translate in West Virginia-speak for you (live in Ohio and have a couple of friends from the great state of WV). LTA uses a local book that is not available to you or i, unfortunately. this book bases its lines upon 5D, Pinny and Legends lines, but is slower to move them than the online books. when LTA sees 5D, Pinny or Legends move a line, he knows that his local is likely to follow, albeit with some lagtime (maybe 10 minutes, maybe a half-hour, maybe more). this is a huge advantage for him, to know when he is "on the clock" for a potential line move. as such, it is completely believable that LTA books plays at lines unavailable for you or i. if we don't like it, we can either move to Chicago to use the same local book, or just shut up already about a pretty trifling point. LTA has addressed this point dozens of times with people who, frankly, appear more interested in arguing with strangers in an online forum than discussing sports.

have a nice day and BOL to you with your plays.

[No coincidences]

You don't value a lifetime .322 hitter who had a solid season last year despite injury? His slow start simply tells me an upward tick is on its way. Especially against a crafty righty like McDonald who has held Gianni hitless in six ab's. When combined with price jump up to -115, the absence of Helton had kept me undecided. I may still play it, but much of the value is gone

Not in solely determining my bet, no. Todd Helton? This isn't 2003.

[WVU9494]

Not a bad explanation, thank you.


UOTE=BiffTFinancial;14556908]clearly, there is no doubt about your first statement.

i'll try to translate in West Virginia-speak for you (live in Ohio and have a couple of friends from the great state of WV). LTA uses a local book that is not available to you or i, unfortunately. this book bases its lines upon 5D, Pinny and Legends lines, but is slower to move them than the online books. when LTA sees 5D, Pinny or Legends move a line, he knows that his local is likely to follow, albeit with some lagtime (maybe 10 minutes, maybe a half-hour, maybe more). this is a huge advantage for him, to know when he is "on the clock" for a potential line move. as such, it is completely believable that LTA books plays at lines unavailable for you or i. if we don't like it, we can either move to Chicago to use the same local book, or just shut up already about a pretty trifling point. LTA has addressed this point dozens of times with people who, frankly, appear more interested in arguing with strangers in an online forum than discussing sports.

have a nice day and BOL to you with your plays.[/QUOTE]

[WVU9494]

You saying west Virginia people are slow?? I am frOm no where near there but have found he people to be very nice and intelligent. You should grow up with your 50's stereotypes

clearly, there is no doubt about your first statement.

i'll try to translate in West Virginia-speak for you (live in Ohio and have a couple of friends from the great state of WV). LTA uses a local book that is not available to you or i, unfortunately. this book bases its lines upon 5D, Pinny and Legends lines, but is slower to move them than the online books. when LTA sees 5D, Pinny or Legends move a line, he knows that his local is likely to follow, albeit with some lagtime (maybe 10 minutes, maybe a half-hour, maybe more). this is a huge advantage for him, to know when he is "on the clock" for a potential line move. as such, it is completely believable that LTA books plays at lines unavailable for you or i. if we don't like it, we can either move to Chicago to use the same local book, or just shut up already about a pretty trifling point. LTA has addressed this point dozens of times with people who, frankly, appear more interested in arguing with strangers in an online forum than discussing sports.

have a nice day and BOL to you with your plays.

[BiffTFinancial]

You saying west Virginia people are slow?? I am frOm no where near there but have found he people to be very nice and intelligent. You should grow up with your 50's stereotypes

i did not say that people from WV are slow. i was goofing around, but the long and short of it was that i was taking the time to explain a point that LTA does not wish to take the time to explain for the 1,000th time. apologies if that came across as mean-spirited, i guess. my friends and i goof on where each other is from all the time. i'm from Virginia and hear similar stereotypes in Ohio about the South, and it doesn't affect my blood pressure at all. you should grow up with your need to fight with strangers on the internet. i honestly do not comprehend what makes people go into threads and fight and argue - seems like a waste of time to me. have a nice day, seriously.

[Vasco]

LTA, any lean on the Seattle/Detroit total? King Felix vs Wilk, I see a low scoring game. Do you see any value in the under?

[taxe91]

LTA, any lean on the Seattle/Detroit total? King Felix vs Wilk, I see a low scoring game. Do you see any value in the under?

the tigers dont have good numbers against felix except for miggy. and miggy has a 1.202 ops against him, not sure if that helps your decision at all

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/25/2012

Play #1

Phillies/Diamondbacks under (8) 1.5x (Locked)

I am jumping on this one now at -110 before it drops. I would not be surprised to see this one dip into the rare 7.5 territory for a Chase Field game. The roof is scheduled to be closed http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof and with this being an early getaway day game, a few of the regulars may sit. We have Hamels going against Cahill with both pitchers able to get the ground ball out with GB/FB over 1.5 (over 2 in Cahill's case) and get the crucial timely strikeout with K%'s over 15% (over 20% in Hamel's case). Both pitchers have faced limited action against these lineups and in that time have pitched very well. The ump is Rapuano who generally favors the over, but even in the seasons where he had more overs still had a high strike rate. I have this game set at 7 even and it's going to take a final score of 9 to beat us. I don't think this one gets there and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rockies -1RL (+112) 1x (Locked)

Although I respect McDonald, I value Nicasio more. As the season goes on, I think Nicasio establishes himself as a solid three as his command improves after the accident. Although Helton is out, which some may not deem as important as I, the rox lineup is still superior to Pittsburgh. Theres not a ton of value here as I have the rox set at -121 on the ML, but I feel as though Nicasio will pitch deeper in the game while McDonald innefficiency and tendency for a high pitch count will lead to an early shower allowing the rox to get to the bullpen. I expect the rox to win this by 2 or more so I am going to risk the push on the -1RL at plus money. Good luck.

[WVU9494]

I'm not fighting at all, got a snotty response from a simple question. I play alot of live poker and you guys can't hold a candle to how big of aholes those guys are.

QUOTE=BiffTFinancial;14556996]i did not say that people from WV are slow. i was goofing around, but the long and short of it was that i was taking the time to explain a point that LTA does not wish to take the time to explain for the 1,000th time. apologies if that came across as mean-spirited, i guess. my friends and i goof on where each other is from all the time. i'm from Virginia and hear similar stereotypes in Ohio about the South, and it doesn't affect my blood pressure at all. you should grow up with your need to fight with strangers on the internet. i honestly do not comprehend what makes people go into threads and fight and argue - seems like a waste of time to me. have a nice day, seriously.[/QUOTE]

[TC Woods]

Can we get back to discussing "Baseball" and not all this other whiny %$#@

[WVU9494]

Let's go Rockies!!!!

[bleedtoledo]

..here's the part where I jinx MacDonald's no-no

[speez11]

Amen tcwoods.

[Les_Nuts]

Insane, every time this last week you have played -1 RL it has pushed. It's like the gambling gods are sending a message lol

[Dexter]

You don't value a lifetime .322 hitter who had a solid season last year despite injury? His slow start simply tells me an upward tick is on its way. Especially against a crafty righty like McDonald who has held Gianni hitless in six ab's. When combined with price jump up to -115, the absence of Helton had kept me undecided. I may still play it, but much of the value is gone

i ask because i am contemplating dumping ike davis and helton is on the waiver wire.....since you are also bullish on a helton uptick, i am gonna make the move....lol

[mikea33]

LTA.
Sorry to hear your MLB thread has turned into a Soap Opera as well.

You always help me out, though....so I will just weed out all the pointless comments.

[Love The Action]

Can't believe Arizona gave up a two run single to the pitcher hamels with two outs to cost us this play. One run through innings and then az's bullpen gives up 5 in one inning. Now that is frustrating

[dlunc3]

still should have been fine... hamels gets an easy dp ball and backup 2nd baseman Pete Orr muffs it... should be 6-1

[Love The Action]

Unreal

[Vasco]

Damn, that was brutal. Looking at any later games? That Seattle total dropped to 7.5.

[Love The Action]

Damn, that was brutal. Looking at any later games? That Seattle total dropped to 7.5.

Probably not. I had a strong lean on the KC/Indians under, but that was unplayable once it moved to 7.5. I'm sure it will hit now that I passed. Between the early game push and the bullshit loss on the Philly under that should have cashed easily, this was a very, very frustrating day. We had so many chances to cash that under that it makes me sick. I have a lean in the late game, but for now I just want to get away from the frustration of sports. Going to head home, forget about the bad beats, hang out with the baby and reevaluate the late game in a few hours. Good luck if you play anything.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/25/2012 Recap

0 -1 -1 = -1.65x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

42 - 34 - 6 = +6.68x

Don't want to think about yesterday's bad beat ever again. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/26/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Mets under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Locked this play up last night before bed and it looks like it's about 5 cents more expensive this morning, but I would still play it at -120. This is a big year for Niese and Nolasco with both guys needed by their teams to have solid seasons. No time for a full writeup but I have this game at 6.4 giving us over one full run of value, the wind is blowing in and the ump is Dale Scott who favors the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Laissez Faire]

today is a new day so let's get it my man

[Love The Action]

today is a new day so let's get it my man

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/26/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Mets under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Locked this play up last night before bed and it looks like it's about 5 cents more expensive this morning, but I would still play it at -120. This is a big year for Niese and Nolasco with both guys needed by their teams to have solid seasons. No time for a full writeup but I have this game at 6.4 giving us over one full run of value, the wind is blowing in and the ump is Dale Scott who favors the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

Looks like I missed +120's overnight which is unfortunate, but I will play this at +117 giving me 7 cents of value. I have this game set at +110 and with Doubront having the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor, I like the value with Boston. Despite the no-hitter, I expect a regression for Humber and it's never easy facing the Red Sox lineup even though Humber has fared well against them in the past. The wind will be blowing across the field toward the right field corner which sets up for some of Boston's big lefty bats that are finally rounding into form, albeit against Twins pitching. I think Boston wins this game and I am rolling with the Red Sox for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/26/2012

Play #1

Marlins/Mets under (7.5)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Locked this play up last night before bed and it looks like it's about 5 cents more expensive this morning, but I would still play it at -120. This is a big year for Niese and Nolasco with both guys needed by their teams to have solid seasons. No time for a full writeup but I have this game at 6.4 giving us over one full run of value, the wind is blowing in and the ump is Dale Scott who favors the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Red Sox ML (+117) 1x (Locked)

Looks like I missed +120's overnight which is unfortunate, but I will play this at +117 giving me 7 cents of value. I have this game set at +110 and with Doubront having the unfamiliarity factor working in his favor, I like the value with Boston. Despite the no-hitter, I expect a regression for Humber and it's never easy facing the Red Sox lineup even though Humber has fared well against them in the past. The wind will be blowing across the field toward the right field corner which sets up for some of Boston's big lefty bats that are finally rounding into form, albeit against Twins pitching. I think Boston wins this game and I am rolling with the Red Sox for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants/Reds over (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

All I can get is -105 on this despite Pinny and 5D being at -101, but I will roll with that price as I think we see some over money come in soon. I have this game set at 8.99 which is almost a full run of value and in this game I think that is enough. I think Vogelsong regresses this season and he has not fared well in the past against the Reds. Bailey could be solid long-term, but I think he gives up some runs in this game also against a lineup he has not had much success. The ump is Welke who is a long-time over guy and the wind is blowing straight out to center. It's always a bit risky betting overs on early getaway games, but in this case I am going to take that risk. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Volquez and SD are an interesting play tonight if you can get +110 or more. It just dropped to +105 so I'm going to wait and see where this ends up.

[pacocn]

Lta, nice looking card, bol today

[CHAZ]

Play #3

Giants/Reds over (8)(-105) 1x (Locked)

All I can get is -105 on this despite Pinny and 5D being at -101, but I will roll with that price as I think we see some over money come in soon. I have this game set at 8.99 which is almost a full run of value and in this game I think that is enough. I think Vogelsong regresses this season and he has not fared well in the past against the Reds. Bailey could be solid long-term, but I think he gives up some runs in this game also against a lineup he has not had much success. The ump is Welke who is a long-time over guy and the wind is blowing straight out to center. It's always a bit risky betting overs on early getaway games, but in this case I am going to take that risk. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Really like this picK today! Lets cash it LTA

[bleedtoledo]

Damn, you still got a good number on Boston. I bet it's easier to throw a perfect game against the mariners, who've a 28th obp, than sox 4th obp.