Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[Nickelicious]

Considering the fact that 70% of MLB games have been decided by 1 run since 2000 (according to research done in the thread linked in the first post of this thread), I'd like to have that on my side.

I think Blargh is right, as shown by one of the other quotes from the original thread:

"Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up: League Wide: 72.5%"

I also got a little bit freaked out when Bildo said this system went to an "I" bet earlier in the season, regardless of it being in April or not. That's serious money to only profit what you were chasing on the A bet. The system that Bildo has based his system on has never went passed the D bet (when using the 1 run win as a push instead of a loss) when backtracked and only made it to the C a "handful of times". I'm going to try a bit of a combo of both systems. I'll use Bildo's method for determining the pick so that I'll always get the better than positive runline and then the original method for making the wager.

Yeah, I like that as well. I downloaded ScreaminPain's Excel spreadsheet and I like the data. You'll need a larger bankroll to make the same profit though.

I'm not familiar with Morrison's MLB system, only his NBA system. What is involved in his MLB system? Is it basically if a team swept another team last time, then bet on them to win at least one game the next time they face? I can't imagine this would be without filters because chances of a team like Washington getting swept twice in a row by a team like Philly is still pretty good.

Your assumption is correct. There is one filter: The ESPN RPI number for both teams involved in the play must be within .01 of each other or there is no official play. The system is 20-0 this year and two series start tomorrow; the plays are on Atlanta and Houston. Your team must be the favorite or you must play the +1.5 run line.

[mikeveli20]

Yeah, I like that as well. I downloaded ScreaminPain's Excel spreadsheet and I like the data. You'll need a larger bankroll to make the same profit though.

I haven't ran the numbers yet or anything, but my initial feeling is that while it would be the best practice to have a larger bankroll in case things go south, since each chase is ending before the 4 game mark instead of the 6 game mark, it would even out to be about the same or even less. I could be way off, that was just what I thought.

Your assumption is correct. There is one filter: The ESPN RPI number for both teams involved in the play must be within .01 of each other or there is no official play. The system is 20-0 this year and two series start tomorrow; the plays are on Atlanta and Houston. Your team must be the favorite or you must play the +1.5 run line.

Just to make sure I got this right. The lines from my book for the Atlanta series are: Atlanta -160ML/+134RL. So in this case I would bet the ML? But if the numbers were reversed and it was +160ML/-134RL (thus making them the underdog), I would bet the -134 for the +1.5RL?

Also, I had said in a post above that all the games were open for Pinnacle when I checked, but I was wrong and there is still 3 games OFF. Not sure how I overlooked that, but either way I'm comfortable with my Yankees pick.

Are you only running this system and the JM system or are there any other MLB systems you're going with? I'm testing out the system I found here. I'm being strict with filters since the system has lost a few times as detailed in the thread. With the filters I think it's much better. I started after the All-Star break and cashed in on the Dodgers series and the Reds series. I also started playing the Marlins series, but didn't play the final game after game 3 was postponed. Since I didn't put too much on the A bet it wasn't tough to take. It was unfortunate though because I believe the game that got rained out could have and was going in the Marlins favor.

[Nickelicious]

Just to make sure I got this right. The lines from my book for the Atlanta series are: Atlanta -160ML/+134RL. So in this case I would bet the ML? But if the numbers were reversed and it was +160ML/-134RL (thus making them the underdog), I would bet the -134 for the +1.5RL?

That is precisely correct. There are threads on this board that detail the system and also post each new game the night before it happens. John Morrison has gotten thousands of people to pay for his system (including me, before I discovered SBR), but there are thousands more mooching off the system for free. More power to them! With the RPI filter, it has performed exceptionally well.

I am not really running any other MLB systems. Between this one/the original one and the Morrison system, that's more than enough chase systems for me. I did look into the one you are following and I dislike it. Nothing against anybody, but after reading how people have lost 1/3 of their bankroll just two months after the system was posted, I don't think I would touch it.

[Nickelicious]

I am sending you a PM as well, so be on the lookout for it.

[FreeFall]

I am sending you a PM as well, so be on the lookout for it.

Mind sending me a PM? Any back testing? I'm still following the topic posters idea is that a horrible idea?

[Nickelicious]

I'm not familiar with the "idea" you mentioned, freefall. Can you give me a little more detail?

And backtesting on what? The Morrison system?

[billdo75]

Play for 7/20/2009:

B - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +135 (-165 ML / 2nd)

As mentioned earlier, when I post the results tonight, I will include the system record capped at C bets (a C bet counts as a loss and you resume with an A bet next game) as well as uncapped. I will also tally up the records using the -1 RL hedge both ways for the players that want to try that.

And just for the record...since 7/2, all the qualifying plays have gone 28-30 overall for +4.21 units if bet straight with the "official" picks going 7-7 for +1.24 units overall.

Good luck today!

[Blargh]

My play was the Yankees. Got a +103 RL from Pinnacle.
Damn you Matsui
On to my C Bet which will be Dodgers tommorrow night.


For those you looking at hedging the -1.5 RL with the ML, You would have won my A and B bets and won all six games since I started.
I started July 12th. Currently 4-2, +1 unit and chasing.

[johncrud]

So what is the record for this system?

[mikeveli20]

My play was the Yankees. Got a +103 RL from Pinnacle.
Damn you Matsui
On to my C Bet which will be Dodgers tommorrow night.


For those you looking at hedging the -1.5 RL with the ML, You would have won my A and B bets and won all six games since I started.
I started July 12th. Currently 4-2, +1 unit and chasing.

That is exactly my status as well. I'm going to combine the -1.5RL with the ML for the next game after this chase ends and see what happens. GL!

[Blargh]

That is exactly my status as well. I'm going to combine the -1.5RL with the ML for the next game after this chase ends and see what happens. GL!

Actually I deviated from the system with a second play in the same night. If the Dodgers were good enough for billdo75 as a system play, then they are good enough for me as a secondary play. It'll either be a A game or a D game for me tommorrow.

[billdo75]

Dodgers win 7-5. As promised, here are the system records to date with different betting strategies:

Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 8-10 L1, -0.63 units
B plays: 6-4 L1, +5.05 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 18-0, +18.00 units

Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 8-11 L2, -1.46 units
B plays: 6-5 L2, +3.30 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 18-1, +13.51 units

Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 11-7-4 L1, +4.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2, +5.49 units
Chase record: 18-0, +18.00 units

Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 12-7-6 L1, +5.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 18-1, +13.51 units

[Nickelicious]

Outstanding, Billdo, simply outstanding. Thanks.

[FreeFall]

thanks a lot billdo, not sure how you figure all that out so easily, but excellent work. I'm going to stick with the three game chase and hope it keeps coming out ahead!

It definitely fluctuates your bankroll alot more than my normal bet size of 2.5% my BR.

[Nickelicious]

Dodgers win 7-5. As promised, here are the system records to date with different betting strategies:

Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 8-10 L1, -0.63 units
B plays: 6-4 L1, +5.05 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 18-0, +18.00 units

Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 8-11 L2, -1.46 units
B plays: 6-5 L2, +3.30 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 18-1, +13.51 units

Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 11-7-4 L1, +4.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2, +5.49 units
Chase record: 18-0, +18.00 units

Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 12-7-6 L1, +5.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 18-1, +13.51 units

Billdo, I do have one question: Why are the first two "Standard" plays with the Cap and the No Cap different in performance? They are all RL bets with -1 1/2 runs, so shouldn't they have identical records for the A and B bets? The only difference between the two system variations is how the C bet is managed. Does the C bet management affect the return on the first two bets in the system? And even if that is true, why is the W/L record different for the first two wagers, when all you are doing is capping the chase at 3 bets or not capping it at all?

Just curious, don't sweat it, love what you're doing.

[peterpan19]

Billdo, I do have one question: Why are the first two "Standard" plays with the Cap and the No Cap different in performance?

bc when you start again with an A bet on the capped system it would be D bet for the uncapped system... so add D to A record, E to B record and F to the C record for the capped system... and you see why they are different... and still have the same record overall...

[Nickelicious]

Okay, after reading through it, that makes sense, peterpan. Thanks.

[peterpan19]

looks like det is the play today... at least it looks like that for me...
GL

[billdo75]

Play for 7/21/2009:

A - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +105 (-200 ML / 1st), 0.95 to win 1.00 units

NOTE: Right after I booked the play, the line moved to even odds...

[mikeveli20]

Dodgers just won big to cash me in on my C bet. My play for tomorrow is the Rockies, even though when I checked 10 mins after my bet the Dodgers were the play. Not sure if it changed or if I just missed it. Either way, I'm happy with the pick.

I put money on the ML and the -1.5RL to give me a push if Rockies win by 1. I know Bildo said he was using the 1-run insurance method with the original chase system and never needed it, but both my A and B bets for the last chase would have been pushes had I used it. It's not too much more and I like the added insurance. Go Rockies! (and Dodgers for those who's play is that game instead )

[billdo75]

Dodgers win 12-3. 7 teams met the filtering criteria yesterday - LAD, NYY, DET, HOU, COL, WAS, and LAA. Colorado was the only one that failed to cash. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 9-10 W1, +0.37 units
B plays: 6-4 L1, +5.05 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 19-0, +19.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 9-11 W1, -0.46 units
B plays: 6-5 L2, +3.30 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 19-1, +14.51 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 12-7-4 L1, +5.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2, +5.49 units
Chase record: 19-0, +19.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 13-7-6 L1, +6.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 19-1, +14.51 units

All filtered plays: 47-41, +13.85 units, +19.10% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/22/2009:

A - Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +130 (-165 ML / 4th), 0.77 to win 1.00 units

[Blargh]

Based on Pinnacle it's the Dodgers again -201/+111. Looking for a Dodger series sweep and a Dodgers RL series sweep and the 5th Dodger play in the past 6.

[Axis]

^^
It depends on when the lines are taken, because when the lines first came out, Toronto was the play.

So really, it just depends when and where you take the line...I always wait just before the games to be played...but I use the same basic principle as Billdo. Haven't had to go to a bet past B doing this...though I took a week off from betting, and I'm not sure what would have happened that week (I was on vacation)

[mikeveli20]

(I was on vacation)

Paid for by your winnings?

[Blargh]

I'd be interested to see how much the book makes a difference.
I am assuming with pinnacle since you can get the heavier ML favs at + RL, you should end up with a better W-L. But in doing so you end up having higher bets since you tend to end up with a lower RL odds than other books.
Without doing any legwork on this, my assumption would be that you end up with more units using pinnacle but would be betting higher on a chase to get your unit.

[billdo75]

Blue Jays win 10-6. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-10 W2, +1.37 units
B plays: 6-4 L1, +5.05 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 20-0, +20.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-11 W2, +0.54 units
B plays: 6-5 L2, +3.30 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 20-1, +15.51 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-7-4 W2, +6.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2, +5.49 units
Chase record: 20-0, +20.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-7-6 W2, +7.95 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 20-1, +15.51 units

All filtered plays: 48-41, +14.85 units, +20.27% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/23/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +110 (-175 ML / 4th), 0.91 to win 1.00 units

[peterpan19]

looks like we will have a B bet on friday...

[mikeveli20]

My play is on the D-backs over the Pirates tonight. Using Pinnacles lines. -201 ML and +108 RL when I made the bet.

[n1co35]

My play is on the D-backs over the Pirates tonight. Using Pinnacles lines. -201 ML and +108 RL when I made the bet.

i also played d-backs but gor it at +105 RL on beted. either way

[billdo75]

Braves lose 1-5. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-11 L1, +0.46 units
B plays: 6-4 L1, +5.05 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 20-0, +20.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-12 L1, -0.37 units
B plays: 6-5 L2, +3.30 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 20-1, +15.51 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-8-4 L1, +6.04 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 20-0, +20.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-8-6 L1, +7.04 units
B plays: 4-3-0 L1, +2.85 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 20-1, +15.51 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays: 48-44, +12.37 units, +16.33% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/24/2009:

B - Detroit Tigers (Gm1) -1½ +105 (-175 ML / 2nd), 1.82 to win 1.91 units

[Axis]

Hmm...Seeing how Detroit has scored only 1 run in 4 of their last 5...seems risky to me, but does seem to currently be the play...

I think I may personally wait on this one. g/l

[kmarinouofm]

i think since they have only scored 1 run 4 of the last 5 means they are probably due huge tonight..


oops didn't realize it was a day game.. .. well 1 to 4.. looks like i might have been right