Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[mikeveli20]

Play for 7/17/2009:

C - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +130 (-155 ML / T-5th, W vs W), $22.04 to win $28.65

Braves and Cards were at -105 RL, Yankees were at -120 RL, SF was at +100 RL, and LA was tied at -155 ML with the Mariners, so Dodgers were the play based on tie breaker. As always, GL everybody!

Man, your lines are so different than the ones I get at Pinnacle. For me, Braves are at +107 (+115 when I made the bet), Cardinals +109, Yankees -113, and SF +111. Looking at the lines now, had I waited until now to make my selection, the Cards would be the pick since they had the highest ML and now have a better than even RL.

What do you advise as far as when to make the pick? I made my pick for today last night, but as I just stated, the pick I'm supposed to make based on the system has now changed and it's too late for me.

[mikey360]

Man, your lines are so different than the ones I get at Pinnacle. For me, Braves are at +107 (+115 when I made the bet), Cardinals +109, Yankees -113, and SF +111. Looking at the lines now, had I waited until now to make my selection, the Cards would be the pick since they had the highest ML and now have a better than even RL.

What do you advise as far as when to make the pick? I made my pick for today last night, but as I just stated, the pick I'm supposed to make based on the system has now changed and it's too late for me.

Pinnacle runline are actually the exception (I think) as they are low juice, BetCRIS and BetJam are more in line with Bodogs, im not sure of any others as low as Pinny, after today im going to wait and just go with what Billdo says and take the pinny line for higher odds.

[Nickelicious]

Works for me. Glad to have a play. I was playing the Dodgers pretty heavy anyway, but now I'll do it on the RL more.

[billdo75]

Man, your lines are so different than the ones I get at Pinnacle. For me, Braves are at +107 (+115 when I made the bet), Cardinals +109, Yankees -113, and SF +111. Looking at the lines now, had I waited until now to make my selection, the Cards would be the pick since they had the highest ML and now have a better than even RL.

What do you advise as far as when to make the pick? I made my pick for today last night, but as I just stated, the pick I'm supposed to make based on the system has now changed and it's too late for me.

I place the bets as soon as I can, but Bodog doesn't put their run lines up until 9:30am local. If I had access to overnight run lines, I would probably bet those. Again, the actual picks probably don't matter as much as the philosophy.

[do5000]

billdo,

not to start trouble, but on covers it shows CHW opening at -170 (+125 RL on bodog) and LAD opening at -155 (+130 RL on bodog).
if youre going by covers opening lines, would CHW be the play for today?
to be fair, that line was posted late.

[mikeveli20]

I place the bets as soon as I can, but Bodog doesn't put their run lines up until 9:30am local. If I had access to overnight run lines, I would probably bet those. Again, the actual picks probably don't matter as much as the philosophy.

So in that regard, my Atlanta pick was the correct one for me?

[Hip2Bsq]

I played Atlanta on Thurs. as well.

[billdo75]

billdo,

not to start trouble, but on covers it shows CHW opening at -170 (+125 RL on bodog) and LAD opening at -155 (+130 RL on bodog).
if youre going by covers opening lines, would CHW be the play for today?
to be fair, that line was posted late.

Was that the one? I remember running across a game that was OFF when I compiled the list this morning. I usually do that first thing in the morning when I get to work and leave it on the back burner until the run lines are posted later, so if it's OFF when I'm pulling the list, it doesn't get any consideration. I also don't like playing on doubleheaders, so I'll usually exclude those as well.

So in that regard, my Atlanta pick was the correct one for me?

Sure.

[Nickelicious]

Braves destroyed the Mets, White Sox crushing Baltimore in the 8th, and the Dodgers getting creamed by Houston in the 3rd.

Maybe the White Sox should be considered the official play. Don't want to rewrite history, but they were actually the first qualifying candidate. Maybe the official play shouldn't be declared until the odds are available for every game.

Billdo said the actual picks probably don't matter as much as the philosophy. That may be true, but when it comes to a C bet, I would want my money on the team that fits the criteria the closest.

Regardless, still a terrific system.

[williebob777]

Billdo, www.scoresandodds.com posts overnight lines.

[Blargh]

3 for 3 since I started.
Yankess line not up yet but it'll be either the Dodgers (-174/+127) or Yankees tommorrow.
Let's keep this streak going.

[Hip2Bsq]

Maybe the White Sox should be considered the official play. Don't want to rewrite history, but they were actually the first qualifying candidate. Maybe the official play shouldn't be declared until the odds are available for every game.

Billdo said the actual picks probably don't matter as much as the philosophy. That may be true, but when it comes to a C bet, I would want my money on the team that fits the criteria the closest.

Regardless, still a terrific system.

I played the CHW game today because it was +120.

[billdo75]

Braves destroyed the Mets, White Sox crushing Baltimore in the 8th, and the Dodgers getting creamed by Houston in the 3rd.

Lucky me...

I have family obligations tomorrow, so I probably won't be able to make any plays. If I get a break during the day, I may sneak on and see what's available. Otherwise, I guess my chase continues with the D bet on Sunday...

[billdo75]

Dodgers lose 1-8.

A plays: 9-10 L1, + $1.89
B plays: 6-4 L1, + $22.10
C plays: 3-1 L1, + $30.38

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06 ** Chasing **

[mikeveli20]

2-0 so far. Both came from Braves wins. Didn't think they'd win today, but they destroyed the Mets 11-0.

I've already placed my play for tomorrow on the Dodgers. Covers.com had them as the only team with a greater than -150 ML and Pinnacle had them at +127 on the RL so I went with them. However, as Nickelicious stated above, I think from now on I'm going to wait until all the MLs are released because as of right now there are still 3 teams that are OFF. So the Dodgers are going to be the "unofficial play" for tomorrow and then for Sunday's games I'm going to wait until all the lines are released.

Although I might wait till Monday's games to wait for all MLs to be released because I like to sleep in on Sundays and might not wake up in time to make my bet before the 1PM EST games start

[Nickelicious]

The system has turned into a bit of a crapshoot. That's not to say I don't buy into it, because I do. But sorry, Billdo, any chase system that resorts to a D bet is essentially unplayable, unless you are willing to bet .25 units on the A bet.

I'm not. Face it, Billdo, the White Sox were the official play last night. Just because the odds were off when you checked it doesn't mean they should have been eliminated from consideration. I agree with you that the philosophy is more important than the picks, but your own philosophy demands that the highest ML line with a +105 or higher RL is the official play. Last night, that WAS the White Sox, and they cruised to a 12-8 win that wasn't as close as the final score.

I think we need to get off the Covers and Bodog line shit and just play the system as it naturally presents itself.

Unfortunately, some MLB lines don't come out until later in the day. For instance, for the Yankees game that kicks off in less than six hours, but there is still no line on Covers for ML or RL. What the hell is an overnight bettor supposed to do with that? Not a damn thing, I suggest.

Which means that if you suspect ANY game might eliminate the game you have targeted for this system, then you have to delay your wager until all lines have been released. On most nights, you won't have any issues. But on some nights, with injuries and all sorts of crap going on, you might have to wait. Like we are waiting with the Yankees tonight. Do we really think the Yankees will be a -150 favorite against the Tigers with Verlander on the hump? If we do, then we HAVE to wait for those odds to be released. If we don't want to wait, then we should bet on the next-best candidate for the system.

Ideally, every ML would be eligible for the system plays. Which means the official system plays cannot be played on overnight lines that exclude any ML contest (such as the White Sox last night). Which would also mean that the White Sox were the play last night and therefore we are not staring into the face of a D bet today.

Gentlemen, I'm afraid this is going to be a sensitive system that will require at least a little bit of handicapping expertise to make it play out to the best results. Unfortunate for pure system players, but not unexpected for veteran cappers. If concrete lines for every game were issued by midnight every night, this wouldn't be the case, but that's not the world we live in.

And I'm not prepared to venture into D bet territory very often. Even though the original system had the potential (and the track record) for going into F bet territory.

[mikeveli20]

The system has turned into a bit of a crapshoot. That's not to say I don't buy into it, because I do. But sorry, Billdo, any chase system that resorts to a D bet is essentially unplayable, unless you are willing to bet .25 units on the A bet.

I'm not. Face it, Billdo, the White Sox were the official play last night. Just because the odds were off when you checked it doesn't mean they should have been eliminated from consideration. I agree with you that the philosophy is more important than the picks, but your own philosophy demands that the highest ML line with a +105 or higher RL is the official play. Last night, that WAS the White Sox, and they cruised to a 12-8 win that wasn't as close as the final score.

I think we need to get off the Covers and Bodog line shit and just play the system as it naturally presents itself.

Unfortunately, some MLB lines don't come out until later in the day. For instance, for the Yankees game that kicks off in less than six hours, but there is still no line on Covers for ML or RL. What the hell is an overnight bettor supposed to do with that? Not a damn thing, I suggest.

Which means that if you suspect ANY game might eliminate the game you have targeted for this system, then you have to delay your wager until all lines have been released. On most nights, you won't have any issues. But on some nights, with injuries and all sorts of crap going on, you might have to wait. Like we are waiting with the Yankees tonight. Do we really think the Yankees will be a -150 favorite against the Tigers with Verlander on the hump? If we do, then we HAVE to wait for those odds to be released. If we don't want to wait, then we should bet on the next-best candidate for the system.

Ideally, every ML would be eligible for the system plays. Which means the official system plays cannot be played on overnight lines that exclude any ML contest (such as the White Sox last night). Which would also mean that the White Sox were the play last night and therefore we are not staring into the face of a D bet today.

Gentlemen, I'm afraid this is going to be a sensitive system that will require at least a little bit of handicapping expertise to make it play out to the best results. Unfortunate for pure system players, but not unexpected for veteran cappers. If concrete lines for every game were issued by midnight every night, this wouldn't be the case, but that's not the world we live in.

And I'm not prepared to venture into D bet territory very often. Even though the original system had the potential (and the track record) for going into F bet territory.

So do you suggest we make our wager once our own book releases all of the their ML and RL? How do you recommend we play the system as it naturally presents itself? Thanks.

[n1co35]

i also would like to know when to decide the play for this system.
i use bodog aswell n i dont get RL till like 12pm est.

[tb06]

New to this forum, but not new to the game... Was reading up on this chase system last night and thinking about giving it a go, barring we can get these few kinks fixed.

[FreeFall]

Would you really be set back that far assuming you could all C bets loses and just start over with A the next day?

[billdo75]

The system has turned into a bit of a crapshoot. That's not to say I don't buy into it, because I do. But sorry, Billdo, any chase system that resorts to a D bet is essentially unplayable, unless you are willing to bet .25 units on the A bet.

I'm not. Face it, Billdo, the White Sox were the official play last night. Just because the odds were off when you checked it doesn't mean they should have been eliminated from consideration. I agree with you that the philosophy is more important than the picks, but your own philosophy demands that the highest ML line with a +105 or higher RL is the official play. Last night, that WAS the White Sox, and they cruised to a 12-8 win that wasn't as close as the final score.

I think we need to get off the Covers and Bodog line shit and just play the system as it naturally presents itself.

Unfortunately, some MLB lines don't come out until later in the day. For instance, for the Yankees game that kicks off in less than six hours, but there is still no line on Covers for ML or RL. What the hell is an overnight bettor supposed to do with that? Not a damn thing, I suggest.

Which means that if you suspect ANY game might eliminate the game you have targeted for this system, then you have to delay your wager until all lines have been released. On most nights, you won't have any issues. But on some nights, with injuries and all sorts of crap going on, you might have to wait. Like we are waiting with the Yankees tonight. Do we really think the Yankees will be a -150 favorite against the Tigers with Verlander on the hump? If we do, then we HAVE to wait for those odds to be released. If we don't want to wait, then we should bet on the next-best candidate for the system.

Ideally, every ML would be eligible for the system plays. Which means the official system plays cannot be played on overnight lines that exclude any ML contest (such as the White Sox last night). Which would also mean that the White Sox were the play last night and therefore we are not staring into the face of a D bet today.

That's the way I've been playing it since the start. This wasn't the first time a line was off the board early and posted late. It won't be the last. In this instance, that switch in the play would've resulted in a win. Another time, that switch could've resulted in a loss. I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're placing way too much importance on this one instance compared to all the other plays.

All things considered, I went against the rules tonight. When I managed a brief window at home in the afternoon, I saw that the Yankees looked like the official play, but the game was over already. The only other game with a -150+ favorite was the Dodgers again, so I placed a D bet on the Dodgers at -120 on the RL and cashed it 5-2. Because it didn't fit the system, I don't feel right about including it in the record. I'm going to include the Yankees at +120 (I think that's the last I saw...Bodog's lines don't really move a whole lot, so it was probably at least close to their opening run line) in the official record which resulted in a D bet loss...

Yankees lose 2-1.

A plays: 9-10 L1, + $1.89
B plays: 6-4 L1, + $22.10
C plays: 3-1 L1, + $30.38
D plays: 0-1 L1, - $46.40

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06 ** Chasing **

This may get confusing, but I will track tomorrow's play as an E bet, even though I'll be back on my A bet. As a matter of fact, I think I might just track all bets and not really classify a chase loss cutoff. Later!

[FreeFall]

why not just chalk it up as a lose instead of going into D plays or E that sounds like this could all backfire.

[Nickelicious]

Well, FreeFall, that's the thing. As I mentioned before, since the Billdo system is based on a system that has gone to D, E and F bets in the past with parameters that should provide better results because you are betting on heavier favorites, it makes sense that the Billdo system could chase into a 7th or 8th wager on a really horrific streak. It hasn't happened yet and it may not happen for years for all we know, but the risk is evident because of the backtesting done on the original system.

I don't want to buy into a 4-game chase, much less an 8-game chase. I might be willing to go 4 games IF I knew the system was flawless for several years. We don't know that here.

Given the issues with lines being released late, books having different lines and lines fluctuating all night and day, this baby is going to be hard to pin down. The original system has it easier, because the "Number One Favorite" of the day is usually pretty obvious from the overnight lines and rarely changes throughout the day. But Billdo's system is built to increase payout and reduce daily risk, and I'm all about that!

Bottom line, like it or not, I think you have to maintain some degree of handicapping expertise to play this system to optimum results, especially because of some lines being released so late. And you are going to have rely on YOUR book and the lines YOU see to make the play. For Billdo, that ended up being the Dodgers and he won (I had the same play). But the system indicated the Yankees on his book, and they lost and now the system has a D bet loss. I think it is valuable for Billdo to keep tracking the W/L record of official system plays as he is doing, but everyone needs to play the system according to their book and their understanding of the philosophy behind the system.

Which is diametrically opposed to the advice I gave earlier here: Play the system to the letter of the law. But it is what it is. You can also cut off your chase after an official C bet loss and move on (18-1 this year, then). Billdo said in his most recent post that he "might just track all bets and not really classify a chase loss cutoff." But the chase system is 18-0 going into an E bet or 19-0 going into an A bet, depending how you bet. Just playing the games one at a time, the parameters have only produced an 18-16 record so far (always with plus odds, bear in mind).

On my book, the Dodgers are the play tomorrow. I've already put my money down.

[FreeFall]

Either way the "team" doesn't matter it's the line you get. Assuming the lines are fair market lines +120 is 45% of the time. So 45%^4 (four losing bets in a row) = 4% chance of it occuring. AKA it will happen so why not just chalk up your loses and move on.

out of 100 "chases"

96 units are won and 4x5 units lost. So your still ahead 76 units. I think digging deeper into the hole will just bring you problems. Am I on the right track here?

FWIW I'm trying to get dodgers rl tom at matchy

[billdo75]

My official play for today is Tampa Bay at +105. I think I might start presenting the records both capped at C bets and uncapped. Uncapped, today's play is an E bet. Capped, it would be a B bet. When the day is done, I'll get all that squared away.

FYI, I did some backtesting with the system using KillerSports.com. Early in the season, it did go on some long stretches (all the way to an I bet once). Those were closing lines, though, and when compared to the picks I've been making since I started this thread, only 4-5 actually matched what I had played, so I didn't really see any validity in those results.

[FreeFall]

My official play for today is Tampa Bay at +105. I think I might start presenting the records both capped at C bets and uncapped. Uncapped, today's play is an E bet. Capped, it would be a B bet. When the day is done, I'll get all that squared away.

FYI, I did some backtesting with the system using KillerSports.com. Early in the season, it did go on some long stretches (all the way to an I bet once). Those were closing lines, though, and when compared to the picks I've been making since I started this thread, only 4-5 actually matched what I had played, so I didn't really see any validity in those results.

Thanks billdo, I'm going to use this with Capping at C bets and a bigger unit size. We'll see how I do, but the end of the season. BOL.

[peterpan19]

lets hope TB covers today...so far not so good, but I am rooting for ya bildo...

GL

[Nickelicious]

My official play for today is Tampa Bay at +105. I think I might start presenting the records both capped at C bets and uncapped. Uncapped, today's play is an E bet. Capped, it would be a B bet. When the day is done, I'll get all that squared away.

FYI, I did some backtesting with the system using KillerSports.com. Early in the season, it did go on some long stretches (all the way to an I bet once). Those were closing lines, though, and when compared to the picks I've been making since I started this thread, only 4-5 actually matched what I had played, so I didn't really see any validity in those results.

I would think that placing your bet as soon as feasible would tend to work better with this system. It won't always work to your advantage, but the betting public tends to drive heavy favorites into higher odds, making the RL less profitable later in the day.

I can also see where early season system betting would not be as consistent. Not only are the odds a little shakier, but teams either build or lose confidence after a couple dozen games and that tends to carry over throughout the season, if the teams have the talent to back it up (KC didn't, SF did). We will get more consistent results if we skip April every year.

I will appreciate your keeping the official records both capped and uncapped, Billdo. That will provide interesting insights on how to best play the system.

[peterpan19]

oh boys... lokks like we are headed to an E bet on Monday... oh well... maybe the Rays can pull off a miralce here.... GL

[mikeveli20]

I would think that placing your bet as soon as feasible would tend to work better with this system.

Do you think we should then use the MLs from whatever book we use? I'm on Pinnacle and they've already released their ML and RLs for tomorrow's games and Covers.com won't release theirs for awhile.

As of now, Pinnacle has the Yankees as the play at -191ML/+103RL.

EDIT: Dodgers just won, but only by 1 run so I'll be playing my first B bet tomorrow with the Yankees to beat Baltimore by 2. So far 3-0 and Chasing.

[Nickelicious]

Are any lines still off, Mike? There are still 3 lines here that are off. But I don't think any of the three would replace the Yankees play.

On Wsex, the Yankee ML is +190 and the RL is even. The next option is the Braves -165/+130 against visiting SF. I think Billdo wouldn't play the Yankees now, but Bodog could have the Yanks at +105 RL by the morning.

This could be a no play day. Baltimore is also an unofficial JM System pick (they were swept 3-0 by the Yankees in their last series). But it's one of the worst match-ups for an unofficial system pick I've seen in a while and I'm not touching it.

Also bear in mind, Billdo arbitrarily chose a +101 RL as a minimum play. He was trying to reduce risk, as the original system will play a -155 RL if it comes up. Since you have positive odds, you still fit the Billdo System. And despite the even RL, I am planning to play it, too. Baltimore crushed the White Sox today, 10-2, to avoid a sweep. I think their bats are spent and Andy Pettite will beat them tomorrow. GL!

Meanwhile, peterpan, the official system is moving into an F bet, not an E bet. An F bet is like a C bet if you cap the system at three bets.

[FreeFall]

I'm going by pinnacles lines and I see NYY as the biggest line @ -191. The run line there is +103 and I'm trying to get it at matchy for +112 right now.

[mikeveli20]

Are any lines still off, Mike? There are still 3 lines here that are off. But I don't think any of the three would replace the Yankees play.

When I made my bet, all lines were open so that was the play according to the system.

Since I'm still betting small, I'm thinking about tinkering with it a bit for the next series after the chase ends. Considering the fact that 70% of MLB games have been decided by 1 run since 2000 (according to research done in the thread linked in the first post of this thread), I'd like to have that on my side. It will cost slightly more in order to split the bet over the ML and RL to cancel each other out in a 1 run game, but at least you don't lose any money this way.

I also got a little bit freaked out when Bildo said this system went to an "I" bet earlier in the season, regardless of it being in April or not. That's serious money to only profit what you were chasing on the A bet. The system that Bildo has based his system on has never went passed the D bet (when using the 1 run win as a push instead of a loss) when backtracked and only made it to the C a "handful of times". I'm going to try a bit of a combo of both systems. I'll use Bildo's method for determining the pick so that I'll always get the better than positive runline and then the original method for making the wager.

Baltimore is also an unofficial JM System pick (they were swept 3-0 by the Yankees in their last series). But it's one of the worst match-ups for an unofficial system pick I've seen in a while and I'm not touching it.

I'm not familiar with Morrison's MLB system, only his NBA system. What is involved in his MLB system? Is it basically if a team swept another team last time, then bet on them to win at least one game the next time they face? I can't imagine this would be without filters because chances of a team like Washington getting swept twice in a row by a team like Philly is still pretty good.

[Blargh]

I think its actualy 70% of MLB games have been decided by more than one run. The Nationals had 61 one run games in 2005 (38%), no other team has played 60 or more one run games since. So the league average can't be 70% when the league leader is at 38%.

[mikeveli20]

I think its actualy 70% of MLB games have been decided by more than one run. The Nationals had 61 one run games in 2005 (38%), no other team has played 60 or more one run games since. So the league average can't be 70% when the league leader is at 38%.

I was just going by what was in the other thread. This is the quote:

RUN LINE BETTING ODDS
In considering run line wagering, a couple of numbers you should know. About 70% of all games played since 2000 are decided by a single run. Home favorites win by one run just over 18% of the time and road favorites win by one run a little under 12 percent.

Not sure where those numbers came from. Regardless, the original chase system that was using this as a guideline never went to the D game. I like those odds.