Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[Blargh]

If you play Pinnacle, your early play for July 25th would have been the Red Sox who opened -206/+101. But if waited until Friday's nights games were done, the Red Sox became -218/-101 making the new play Mariners -171/+124. Perhaps if you wait on it, the Red Sox RL will go back to a + making them the play once again.
So not only does it matter at which site you play it. It matters at what time you place your bet.
I locked in the Mariners RL at +124.
Pinnacle plays as I have bet them are 8-2 since July 12th.

[billdo75]

Tigers win 5-1. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-11 L1, +0.46 units
B plays: 7-4 W1, +6.96 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 21-0, +21.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-12 L1, -0.37 units
B plays: 6-5 W1, +5.21 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 21-1, +16.51 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-8-4 L1, +6.04 units
B plays: 5-3-0 W1, +4.76 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 21-0, +21.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-8-6 L1, +7.04 units
B plays: 5-3-0 W1, +4.76 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 21-1, +16.51 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 52-46, +14.94 units, +18.52% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 52-31-15, +27.17 units, +33.69% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/25/2009:

A - Seattle Mariners -1½ +110 (-175 ML / 3rd), 0.91 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Colorado Rockies +125/-165
Los Angeles Dodgers +115/-160
Detroit Tigers +140/-155

NOTE: When Covers.com uses the 8¢ line as the opener, I convert that to a 20¢ for my purposes. Using the no-vig line, I find the 20¢ line closest to the 8¢ line. I mainly do that because I don't want to lose any plays (like Detroit above) just because the line was pulled from someplace else. Since Covers has a 20¢ line listed as the OPEN line the majority of the time, that's the standard I want to use to judge plays.

[mikey360]

Whats everyone got today? I wen't with Boston last night but im not sure they would still be the play at this time, its looking like Texas or Philladelphia as the other options.

[peterpan19]

I would say it looks more like ARZ or NYY right now to me... ??

[billdo75]

Mariners lose 3-10. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-12 L2, -0.45 units
B plays: 7-4 W1, +6.96 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 21-0, +21.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-13 L2, -1.28 units
B plays: 6-5 W1, +5.21 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 21-1, +16.51 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-9-4 L2, +5.13 units
B plays: 5-3-0 W1, +4.76 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 21-0, +21.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-9-6 L2, +6.13 units
B plays: 5-3-0 W1, +4.76 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 21-1, +16.51 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 53-49, +13.45 units, +16.02% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 53-32-17, +27.26 units, +32.47% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/26/2009:

B - New York Yankees -1½ +105 (-175 ML / T-3rd), 1.82 to win 1.91 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Arizona Diamondbacks +105/-175
Philadelphia Phillies +120/-165
Detroit Tigers +140/-150

[mikeveli20]

My play for today is the Rockies. When I made the wager the ML was -191 and the RL was +106. Last time I checked the ML had moved to -213 and RL to -105 or something.

[Blargh]

My play for today is the Rockies. When I made the wager the ML was -191 and the RL was +106. Last time I checked the ML had moved to -213 and RL to -105 or something.

A pinnacle play. I got in on the +106 as well. The line moved all the way to -110 for the runline. The Giants were the early pinnacle sports play for Monday (opened RL +105) but are now at -101. At this moment the pinnacle play is the Cards -166/+133 vs the Dodgers.

[mikeveli20]

A pinnacle play. I got in on the +106 as well. The line moved all the way to -110 for the runline. The Giants were the early pinnacle sports play for Monday (opened RL +105) but are now at -101. At this moment the pinnacle play is the Cards -166/+133 vs the Dodgers.

I got the Monday play for the Giants when it was at +101. They were the biggest favorite on the board when I made the wager so I'm glad I was able to make a play on them with the better than even odds on the RL.

[billdo75]

Yankees win 7-5. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-12 L2, -0.45 units
B plays: 8-4 W2, +8.87 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-13 L2, -1.28 units
B plays: 7-5 W2, +7.12 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-9-4 L2, +5.13 units
B plays: 6-3-0 W2, +6.67 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-9-6 L2, +6.13 units
B plays: 6-3-0 W2, +6.67 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 56-50, +15.73 units, +18.00% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 56-33-17, +29.55 units, +33.81% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/27/2009:

A - Seattle Mariners -1½ +110 (-180 ML / 3rd), 0.91 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals +130/-170
Cincinnati Reds +110/-170
Milwaukee Brewers +120/-160
Los Angeles Angels +120/-160
Baltimore Orioles +115/-150

[FreeFall]

Billdo, not sure how hard it is for you. But I remember last time this year that really big favs tended to blow teams out more often than not. I remember someone tracked the month of AUG and made money on taking the RL straight for the biggest fav even with the juice and made money. Do you have a record of that going?

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

WHat did you get for Boston?

[billdo75]

Mariners lose 4-11. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-13 L3, -1.36 units
B plays: 8-4 W2, +8.87 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-14 L3, -2.19 units
B plays: 7-5 W2, +7.12 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-10-4 L3, +4.22 units
B plays: 6-3-0 W2, +6.67 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-10-6 L3, +5.22 units
B plays: 6-3-0 W2, +6.67 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 58-54, +14.29 units, +15.44% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 58-37-17, +28.10 units, +30.37% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/28/2009:

B - Cincinnati Reds -1½ +140 (-160 ML / 4th), 1.36 to win 1.90 units

Other qualifying games on record:
New York Yankees +105/-150
Colorado Rockies +120/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Boston Red Sox -120/-215
Los Angeles Angels -115/-210
Milwaukee Brewers -105/-180

[billdo75]

Reds lose 2-3. All 6 teams favored at -150 or more lost yesterday. Ouch. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-13 L3, -1.36 units
B plays: 8-5 L1, +6.97 units
C plays: 3-1 L1, +8.09 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-14 L3, -2.19 units
B plays: 7-6 L1, +5.22 units
C plays: 4-1 W1, +11.67 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-10-4 L3, +4.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +4.77 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-10-6 L3, +5.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +4.77 units
C plays: 2-1-0 L1, +4.71 units
Chase record: 22-1, +17.51 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 58-57, +11.79 units, +12.40% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 58-40-17, +25.60 units, +26.94% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 0-3, -3.40 units, -100.00% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 0-3, -3.40 units, -100.00% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/29/2009:

C - Boston Red Sox -1½ +110 (-185 ML / 2nd), 2.97 to win 3.27 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Los Angeles Angels +105/-180
San Francisco Giants +140/-155
Flordai Marlins +135/-155
Cincinnati Reds +135/-155
New York Mets +155/-155
Minnesota Twins +140/-155
Kansas City Royals +110/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Milwaukee Brewers -105/-210
Chicago Cubs -110/-175
Toronto Blue Jays -115/-175
Philadelphia Phillies -110/-155

[brandon m]

Thanks for the work your putting into this billdo thats good stuff.

[Blargh]

Much appreciation to Billdo75 for putting the time in doing the records and daily plays.

[Blargh]

Another poor night for the favs on the RL.
Official qualiflying plays went 2-5 and the non-qualifiers went 2-2.
Luckily the Brewer finally put something together. I had two B bets (RL and RL+) and a C bet (4gm series Home team)on the Brew Crew tonight. I jumped out of my chair when my Yahoo Sports screen refreshed to show a pinch hit HR by Mr McGehee. The run in the 8th was gravy. I was really worreid about a D bet on the Brewers winning at home and laying huge chalk with Gallardo, -265.
It looks like the Cubs tommorow for the RL+ chase. +105 at the Greek, nothing posted on almost all other sites at the moment. If you can't get RL+ odds on the Cubs then Reds, Orioles and Braves (road team) all opened as -150 ML.

Good luck everyone. Hope to met you on a A game on Friday and everyday after.

[billdo75]

Red Sox lose 6-8. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-13 L3, -1.36 units
B plays: 8-5 L1, +6.97 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.12 units
D plays: 0-1 L1, -4.57 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 10-14 L3, -2.19 units
B plays: 7-6 L1, +5.22 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.70 units
Chase record: 22-2, +11.73 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-10-4 L3, +4.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +4.77 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
D plays: 1-0-2 W1, +5.49 units
Chase record: 22-0, +22.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 14-10-6 L3, +5.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +4.77 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
Chase record: 22-2, +11.73 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 60-62, +9.80 units, +9.73% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 60-43-19, +25.04 units, +24.87% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 2-5, -3.65 units, -46.79% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 2-4-1, -2.50 units, -32.05% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 7/29/2009:

D(A) - Chicago Cubs -1½ +105 (-185 ML / 3rd), 5.94(0.95) to win 6.24(1.00) units

Other qualifying games on record:
Baltimore Orioles +125/-160
Atlanta Braves +105/-160
Cincinnati Reds +125/-150
Texas Rangers +115/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Boston Red Sox -175/-335
Milwaukee Brewers -145/-275

[brandon m]

Nice cubs hit for me today, was a nice pickup.

[billdo75]

Cubs win 12-3. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-13 L3, -1.36 units
B plays: 8-5 L1, +7.51 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.12 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 23-0, +23.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 11-14 W1, -1.19 units
B plays: 8-6 L1, +5.77 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.70 units
Chase record: 23-2, +13.28 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-10-4 L3, +4.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +5.31 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.73 units
Chase record: 23-0, +23.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 15-10-6 W1, +6.22 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +5.31 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
Chase record: 23-2, +13.28 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 64-63, +13.00 units, +12.37% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 64-44-19, +28.24 units, +26.88% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 4-5, -1.65 units, -15.00% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 4-4-1, -0.50 units, -4.55% ROI

NOTE: I made an error on the B results during this chase. The results above are correct, just in case anybody wondered why the B results changed...

[billdo75]

Play for 7/31/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +115 (-180 ML / 2nd), 0.87 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Texas Rangers +110/-165
St Louis Cardinals +105/-155
Minnesota Twins +120/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -120/-200
Philadelphia Phillies -120/-165
Detroit Tigers +100/-150

[Blargh]

Aug 1st is looking like a no play on pinnacle. All three teams that opened with -150 or higher ML odds all have -RL at the moment.
Rays -270/-121
Cards -219/-105
Red Sox -165/-107

All other games opened with lower than -150 odds. The Giants are now over -150 (-151/+152) but don't met the requirements. They opened at -145.
I may wait til I head off to be. If the RSox RL hasn't moved to +, then I think I will stray from the system and bet the Giants. I really hope the Card RL doesn't go to +. I already placed a ML on the Astros. Wandy had a 0.75 ERA in July including a start vs the Cards. A +201 on the ML for the Astros was too juicy to pass up. I know if I end up playing the Cards on the RL it's a guaranteed one run win by the Cards.

[billdo75]

Braves lose 0-5. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-14 L4, -2.23 units
B plays: 8-5 L1, +7.51 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.12 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.58 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.65 units
Chase record: 23-0, +23.00 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 11-15 L1, -2.06 units
B plays: 8-6 L1, +5.77 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.70 units
Chase record: 23-2, +13.28 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-11-4 L4, +3.35 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +5.31 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.73 units
Chase record: 23-0, +23.00 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 15-11-6 L1, +5.35 units
B plays: 6-4-0 L1, +5.31 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.74 units
Chase record: 23-2, +13.28 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 64-67, +9.44 units, +8.68% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 64-46-21, +26.54 units, +24.43% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 6-6, -0.65 units, -4.51% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 6-5-1, +0.50 units, +3.47% ROI

[billdo75]

Aug 1st is looking like a no play on pinnacle. All three teams that opened with -150 or higher ML odds all have -RL at the moment.
Rays -270/-121
Cards -219/-105
Red Sox -165/-107

If there are no plays on Pinnacle, then I'm sure Bodog is out. Works out though as I've got an early start tomorrow and probably won't be able to play any games. If I make it home in time and a qualifying game is available, I might play it.

[brandon m]

Looks like St Louis would be the play -200/+110 but I'm staying away from that game basically 2 aces going out there today, I think the game could go either way very easily.

[billdo75]

Play for 8/1/2009:

B - St Louis Cardinals -1½ +105 (-205 ML / 2nd), 1.78 to win 1.87 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Chicago Cubs +110/-155

Non-qualifying games on record:
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -160/-260
Boston Red Sox -115/-165
Colorado Rockies +100/-155

[billdo75]

Cardinals win 3-1. Holliday's solo HR for the win!

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 10-14 L4, -2.23 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 24-0, +24.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 11-15 L1, -2.06 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 24-2, +14.27 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 13-11-4 L4, +3.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 24-0, +24.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 15-11-6 L1, +5.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 24-2, +14.28 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 65-68, +9.53 units, +8.62% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 65-46-22, +27.54 units, +24.92% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 9-6, +2.35 units, +12.95% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 9-5-1, +3.50 units, +19.28% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 8/2/2009:

A - Texas Rangers -1½ +110 (-185 ML / 3rd), 0.91 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Colorado Rockies +115/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals -140/-275
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -140/-270
Philadelphia Phillies -115/-180
Boston Red Sox -115/-170

[billdo75]

Rangers win 4-2. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 11-14 W1, -1.23 units
B plays: 9-5 W1, +9.38 units
C plays: 3-2 L2, +5.13 units
D plays: 1-1 W1, +1.67 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 25-0, +25.00 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 12-15 W1, -1.06 units
B plays: 9-6 W1, +7.64 units
C plays: 4-2 L1, +8.69 units
Chase record: 25-2, +15.27 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 14-11-4 W1, +4.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
D plays: 2-0-2 W2, +11.72 units
Chase record: 25-0, +25.00 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 16-11-6 W1, +6.35 units
B plays: 7-4-0 W1, +7.18 units
C plays: 2-2-0 L2, +1.75 units
Chase record: 25-2, +15.28 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 67-68, +11.53 units, +10.27% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 67-46-22, +29.54 units, +26.31% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 10-9, -0.60 units, -2.58% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 10-8-1, +0.55 units, +2.37% ROI

[billdo75]

Play for 8/3/2009:

A - Chicago Cubs -1½ +120 (-155 ML / 4th), 0.83 to win 1.00 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Pittsburgh Pirates +135/-150
San Francisco Giants +125/-150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers -130/-260
Los Angeles Dodgers -115/-210
Arizona Diamondbacks -110/-185