Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

**do5000** · 07-08-09, 11:48 AM

hi billdo,

thanks for all the work.
you mentioned you use bodog lines. do you have a link to where they are posted?

GL

**billdo75** · 07-08-09, 11:08 PM

Astros win 5-0.

A plays: 6-9 W1, - $8.57
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 15-0, + $75.05

**billdo75** · 07-08-09, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by do5000

hi billdo,

thanks for all the work.
you mentioned you use bodog lines. do you have a link to where they are posted?

GL

[Click] for the page listing the baseball lines. They usually have the 20¢ overnight lines up until about 11:30am EST, then they update the lines to the 10¢. That's when they add the run lines as well. As the start times of the games draw near, they usually start to add all the prop bets as well. Hope that helps!

**brandon m** · 07-08-09, 11:15 PM

I read through this thread the other day and decided to try it. I screwed up and actually picked a diff money line fav the DBacks but they still covered. So since the astros/whoever got picked lol won today that means a new chase starts tomorow?

**brandon m** · 07-08-09, 11:24 PM

Ok so I was looking at the money lines. SF is -290 money line I don't think anything else was even close so this is the pick for tomorow then starting a new chase?

**do5000** · 07-09-09, 08:25 AM

thanks for the link billdo. thats exactly what i was looking for.
those seem to be the lines, but not opening lines. meaning if games are close the pick would be different depending on when you check the site, correct?

**billdo75** · 07-09-09, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by brandon martinez

I read through this thread the other day and decided to try it. I screwed up and actually picked a diff money line fav the DBacks but they still covered. So since the astros/whoever got picked lol won today that means a new chase starts tomorow?

Originally posted by brandon martinez

Ok so I was looking at the money lines. SF is -290 money line I don't think anything else was even close so this is the pick for tomorow then starting a new chase?

Correct, since the Astros (and in your case, the DBacks) covered and won, we start back at the basic A level with today's bet. San Francisco has the highest opening money line for today at -290, but the run line is at -125, so we move down the list. The next one in line is Boston at -210/+100, so we move down again. The 3rd game is Seattle at -180/+115 which is the play. We want the highest money line favorite (using the opening lines from Covers.com) with a >+100 run line. Granted, like I said earlier in the thread, different books may have different run lines, so Boston might actually be the play at another book. For me, using Bodog's lines, Seattle is the play. Unfortunately, it appears they're having some technical issues with the site. When I try to place the wager, it says the line has expired even though it hasn't moved. I've tried about 10 times to place that wager now and no go...

**billdo75** · 07-09-09, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by do5000

thanks for the link billdo. thats exactly what i was looking for.
those seem to be the lines, but not opening lines. meaning if games are close the pick would be different depending on when you check the site, correct?

The opening lines I use come from Covers.com. Since Bodog doesn't post the daily lines until 11:30, I'll go to Covers.com and list all the >-150 favorites in order. Once the lines are up, I pair the run lines to the favorite listing and make the pick.

**billdo75** · 07-09-09, 11:33 AM

Play for 7/9/2009:

A - Seattle Mariners -1½ +110 (-180 ML / 3rd, W vs W), $4.55 to win $5.01

**do5000** · 07-09-09, 12:13 PM

thanks for the clarification, makes sense now.

go mariners!

**Blargh** · 07-10-09, 12:11 AM

I was looking at the other RL chase system as well. I was also thinking what kind of effect would it have if a you set to limit how much chalk to put down. Not putting a limit on the line would require you to start with a higher bankroll to ensure you could follow through on a 6 game chase. Especially if you start getting odds -150 or worse into your 5th or 6th game of your chase like some of RL the Yankees were posting earlier in the season.
So if the one month you have completed happens to be an accurate account for the overall success of the system, then it is one fine looking system.

**billdo75** · 07-10-09, 09:07 AM

Mariners win 3-1.

A plays: 7-9 W2, - $3.56
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 16-0, + $80.06

**do5000** · 07-10-09, 10:26 AM

this does look great. im guessing its impossible to backtest since RL lines dont seem to be easy to find.

**billdo75** · 07-10-09, 11:16 AM

Play for 7/10/2009:

A - San Francisco Giants -1½ +135 (-180 ML / 3rd, W vs L), $3.70 to win $5.00

**billdo75** · 07-10-09, 12:09 PM

I'm considering possibly tweaking my money management on this system. Because we're only taking positive odds on the run line, I was thinking about possibly looking to chase $5 each day as opposed to overall.

Standard chase strategy (assuming the worst odds we'll take):
A Game - +105 $4.76 to win $5.00 - Net result +$5.00 if W (+105.0% ROI)
B Game - +105 $9.30 to win $9.77 - Net result +$5.00 if W (+35.6% ROI)
C Game - +105 $18.15 to win $19.06 - Net result +$5.00 if W (+15.5% ROI)
D Game - +105 $35.44 to win $37.21 - Net result +$5.00 if W (+7.4% ROI)

Adjusted chase strategy:
A Game - +105 $4.76 to win $5.00 - Net result +$5.00 if W (+105.0% ROI)
B Game - +105 $14.06 to win $14.76 - Net result +$10.00 if W (+53.1% ROI)
C Game - +105 $32.21 to win $33.82 - Net result +$15.00 if W (+29.4% ROI)
D Game - +105 $67.65 to win $71.03 - Net result +$20.00 if W (+16.9% ROI)

As far as money goes, the adusted stategy detailed above is nearly identical to a standard chase laying -124 on each game. I'm not sure yet if I'll follow through. The chase systems have been good to me thus far. I'm just thinking about some other ways to play it and increase profit. Obviously, it's going to hurt more the further into a chase we go. Maybe I'm just getting too greedy...

We'll see if the Giants help give me a little more time to think about it...

**Foghorn** · 07-10-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by billdo75

Play for 7/10/2009:

A - San Francisco Giants -1½ +135 (-180 ML / 3rd, W vs L), $3.70 to win $5.00

Good Work the last few nights. On your pick for today, was that line given when Randy Johnson was the starter? THe line is down to -144, and I think it was because they inserted Sanchez instead of Johnson. Otherwise, I would think this game might not be a go, and go with the next highest play.

Just asking, you seem to be doing so well. Thanks. Foggy

**billdo75** · 07-10-09, 12:48 PM

Those shifty bastards! Like I said, I make the list early, then match up the run lines later. Looks like I wasn't on the ball and keeping track of the starters. Oh well. I already placed the wager for San Francisco. The current play for today is:

Play for 7/10/2009:

A - Tampa Bay Devil Rays -1½ +125 (-160 ML / T-3rd, W vs L), $4.00 to win $5.00

I went ahead and placed that one as well and will actually chase that one if it loses. If San Francisco loses, I'll just eat it.

**Foghorn** · 07-10-09, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by billdo75

Those shifty bastards! Like I said, I make the list early, then match up the run lines later. Looks like I wasn't on the ball and keeping track of the starters. Oh well. I already placed the wager for San Francisco. The current play for today is:

Play for 7/10/2009:

A - Tampa Bay Devil Rays -1½ +125 (-160 ML / T-3rd, W vs L), $4.00 to win $5.00

I went ahead and placed that one as well and will actually chase that one if it loses. If San Francisco loses, I'll just eat it.

Sorry, I was just following your system, and I couldn't figure out how you came up with SF..............just win 'em both....

**Hip2Bsq** · 07-10-09, 01:46 PM

I screwed up todays play but it might work out ok. I clicked the link to this thread from my inbox and it went to page 2 and at the bottom of that page on that day the play was Houston. So I played Houston today -1.5 with Oswalt. MB has it at +121 and they are playing the Nats who I been fading every chance I get, as long as Zimmerman or Lannan are not on the mound.

**jakeandba** · 07-10-09, 10:35 PM

just to ask a question...how much weight do you put on the pitching match up after narrowing teams and the ml greater than -150? can you disclose any other factors for evaluating the pitching match ups? Thanks for ur help.

**billdo75** · 07-10-09, 11:36 PM

There is no evaluation of the pitching matchup. If you asked in response to my post earlier, I was using the money line for SF with Johnson pitching, but the run line with Sanchez pitching. With Sanchez pitching, the money line dropped enough that the game fell off the list. So, no pitching matchup...the pitcher has already been accounted for in the line. We're just taking the largest money line favorite (using opening lines from Covers.com) with a better-than-even run line. That's it. Billy Crystal could be pitching for the Yankees, but if they are -185/+110 on the board, that would be a qualifying play. This is a system, after all...standard handicapping is not necessary.

**dreamjob** · 07-10-09, 11:48 PM

Great job Billdo

Just looking through your thread. Looks like a winner.

**billdo75** · 07-11-09, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by Foghorn

Sorry, I was just following your system, and I couldn't figure out how you came up with SF..............just win 'em both....

Done.

Giants win 8-0 and Devil Rays win 6-0.

A plays: 9-9 W4, + $6.44
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06

**jakeandba** · 07-11-09, 07:11 AM

Thanks for the clarification

**billdo75** · 07-11-09, 11:32 AM

Play for 7/11/2009:

A - Tampa Bay Devil Rays -1½ +110 (-180 ML / 3rd, W vs L), $4.55 to win $5.01

**billdo75** · 07-11-09, 11:44 PM

Devil Rays lose 2-7.

A plays: 9-10 L1, + $1.89
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06 ** Chasing **

**mikelius** · 07-12-09, 06:36 AM

and today?
Colorado, San Francisco or both?
Good luck everybody

**peterpan19** · 07-12-09, 06:53 AM

TB ?... if I understand the system correctly...

**mikey360** · 07-12-09, 09:51 AM

This is a nice system you have going, i've just been using a simple progression so far of:

A $10.00
B $20.00
C $30.00

Back testing all your results so far at average odds of +105 it would have yielded $164.50, at worst case if a C bet lost you would lose $60 so at this time it would still be $100 profit if that happened.

The only thing is the C bet does not really profit but just win back the losses, the profit all comes from A and B's, but its a slightly less agressive method.

I really like the fact its always + odds, keep up the good work Billdo.

**Foghorn** · 07-12-09, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by billdo75

Done.

Giants win 8-0 and Devil Rays win 6-0.

A plays: 9-9 W4, + $6.44
B plays: 6-3 W3, + $31.20
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06

Hit on a double-header,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,great job

**billdo75** · 07-12-09, 11:19 AM

Play for 7/12/2009:

B - San Francisco Giants -1½ +160 (-165 ML / 5th, W vs L), $9.10 to win $14.56

I decided to go with the more agressive scheme I mentioned a few posts back. Give it a shot and see how it goes...

Tampa Bay could've been the play. They were at +100 when I made the play, so I moved down the list. Look like a LOT of people are backing SD in this game. The current line is down to -127 at Bodog. GL, everybody!

**peterpan19** · 07-12-09, 12:28 PM

well I had TB at +110...so I hope both SF and TB cash today...

GL

**mikeveli20** · 07-12-09, 02:07 PM

Hey everyone. Please excuse my extreme noobness (as you can tell by my post count and sign up date), but could someone go into a little more detail on how this works? I've been following the thread for a few weeks now and am very impressed with the results. I'm relatively new to sports betting, but have been a sports lover my entire life. Here are a few questions I have if someone wouldn't mind answering:

1) What are the betting advantages of this system over the one it's based on as indicated in the opening post? I noticed in the original system someone has posted a record of 40-0 (since the beginning of the season) and this one is at 18-0 (in about a month). Since both of those records are 100%, why go with this one over the other? Is there a higher chance to win or is it a safer bet?

2) Does this method use the revised method of the original chase system where it's a push if there is only a 1 run difference in the final score?

3) I'm still a little confused as to how to make bets with this system and how the game to bet on is determined. I understand you have the ML and the RL, but how do you determine which game is the one to go with? And say you want to start off the chase with a $5 bet, does this get split ($2.50 each) over the ML and the RL or is it $5 for each?

4) Is it possible to win either the ML or the RL without the other? What happens if this is the case?

Thanks.

**peterpan19** · 07-12-09, 03:35 PM

well not lookng good for both teams...

**Blargh** · 07-12-09, 09:27 PM

It was my play on this system and I ended up with Philly -205 ML/+108 RL. I am using Pinnaclesports.