Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[billdo75]

Giants lose 4-10.

A plays: 9-10 L1, + $1.89
B plays: 6-4 L1, + $22.10
C plays: 3-0 W3, + $52.42

Overall: 18-0, + $90.06 ** Chasing **

[billdo75]

Hey everyone. Please excuse my extreme noobness (as you can tell by my post count and sign up date), but could someone go into a little more detail on how this works? I've been following the thread for a few weeks now and am very impressed with the results. I'm relatively new to sports betting, but have been a sports lover my entire life. Here are a few questions I have if someone wouldn't mind answering:

1) What are the betting advantages of this system over the one it's based on as indicated in the opening post? I noticed in the original system someone has posted a record of 40-0 (since the beginning of the season) and this one is at 18-0 (in about a month). Since both of those records are 100%, why go with this one over the other? Is there a higher chance to win or is it a safer bet?

This system uses a similar premise. We're just betting that heavily favored teams are going to win and win big more often than not. The advantage to using this system over the original is that we're only taking positive odds on our run line wagers. This disadvantage, others might say, is that you might be dropping into games that aren't quite as much a "sure thing." As if there is such a thing... With the original, you could be in a situation facing a bet deep into the chase and having to lay -140 to win your money. This system strives to still pick heavy favorites, but pay a much lighter price to back them. Say you were 3 games into a chase and you had been laying -120 for every game. The fourth game would cost you $63.89 (at the $5 level) to hit your $5 win amount and cover all previous losses. If you had been taking +120 for every game, that fourth game will only cost you $25.68 to achieve the same result.

2) Does this method use the revised method of the original chase system where it's a push if there is only a 1 run difference in the final score?

I haven't been playing it that way. Earlier in the year, I was running the chase from the aforementioned thread and I was playing the 1 run insurance method. Not a single game during the stretch I played was impacted by that play, so I decided not to keep doing it. It is nice to have that little bit of insurance, but it gets expensive and if it doesn't have a significant impact, I don't want to do it.

3) I'm still a little confused as to how to make bets with this system and how the game to bet on is determined. I understand you have the ML and the RL, but how do you determine which game is the one to go with? And say you want to start off the chase with a $5 bet, does this get split ($2.50 each) over the ML and the RL or is it $5 for each?

First off, we're only using the ML to determine the play. Once the play is determined, the ML is off the table. Basically, what I do is first thing in the morning, I will hit Covers.com and go to their MLB Live Odds page. I will go through each game and if one team's Opening Line is at -150 or greater (-150, -170, -300, etc), they get added to my list in order from largest favorite on down. When Bodog releases the run lines, I match those up to the list I have from earlier and place my bet on the first team in the list with positive odds. I posted a while back about tiebreakers in case more than one team is tied at the money line or run line level. For example, here was today's list:

ML/RL/Team/Pitcher
-300 -150 BOS Beckett
-255 -120 DET Verlander
-215 -120 PHI Happ
-200 +100 TBD Shields
-165 +160 SFG Zito
-160 +140 COL Hammel
-160 +110 NYY Sabathia
-160 +130 SEA Bedard
-150 +145 CHC Zambrano

The first 3 games (BOS, DET, and PHI) are eliminated because of having to lay money on the run line. TBD was also eliminated because of even odds, leaving SFG as the play because they were the first team in the list with postiive run line odds. Does that help?

4) Is it possible to win either the ML or the RL without the other? What happens if this is the case?

Thanks.

Sure. Not with this system, though, because we're only wagering on the RL. The ML is only used to determine the play, then it disappears from the equation.

[billdo75]

It was my play on this system and I ended up with Philly -205 ML/+108 RL. I am using Pinnaclesports.

Give this man a hand

While he was cashing a 5-2 win the the Phillies, the other three teams mentioned for today's play all lost. Playing at Bodog, I never get the good lines I see everyone else posting, but then again I'm a purely recreational player. Congrats on the win, Blargh, and let's see if the rest of us can cash the C bet after the break...

[mikeveli20]

The first 3 games (BOS, DET, and PHI) are eliminated because of having to lay money on the run line. TBD was also eliminated because of even odds, leaving SFG as the play because they were the first team in the list with postiive run line odds. Does that help?

Very much so, thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. The one thing I'm still a bit confused about is the ML. Using your SFG example from above as the pick, they had a ML of -165 but in your original post you said the pick cannot be less than -150 on the ML. When you say can't be less than -150, do you mean if you were too look at it without the negative? Do ML negative numbers work the opposite of negative numbers in general? For example in the ML world, -150 is higher than -130 (whereas using the same set of numbers in general mathematics, -150 would be less than -130).

Also, if I'm using a different sportsbook like PinnacleSports and you're using Bodog, we might have different bets for the same day if they have different RLs right?

[billdo75]

Mathematically, the more negative the line a team has, the more heavily favored they are. A -150 favorite line corresponds to an expected 60% (150/250) winning percentage. A -250 favorite line corresponds to 71.4% (250/350). A +135 underdog line corresponds to 42.6% (100/235). The wording can sometimes get a little confusing, but it sounds like you've got it. Just look for all lines (mathematically) equal to or below -150.

The second point about different books is spot on. With a million different books, there can be a million different sets of run lines. That's just the nature of the game, I guess. As long as the system is followed, the teams wagered on should all be heavy favorites and we should have a pretty decent shot at cashing.

[mikeveli20]

Mathematically, the more negative the line a team has, the more heavily favored they are. A -150 favorite line corresponds to an expected 60% (150/250) winning percentage. A -250 favorite line corresponds to 71.4% (250/350). A +135 underdog line corresponds to 42.6% (100/235). The wording can sometimes get a little confusing, but it sounds like you've got it. Just look for all lines (mathematically) equal to or below -150.

The second point about different books is spot on. With a million different books, there can be a million different sets of run lines. That's just the nature of the game, I guess. As long as the system is followed, the teams wagered on should all be heavy favorites and we should have a pretty decent shot at cashing.

Sounds good, thanks again for answering my questions. Any sports books in particular you would recommend? I was looking at PinnacleSports as mentioned above as they seem to have good reviews from this site.

[billdo75]

I've heard good things about Pinnacle and they seem to be a staple around these forums. Unfortunately, I'm in the USofA and they won't accept business from us Any of the top-rated books at the top of the page will probably be just fine. Good luck!

[mikeveli20]

I decided to go with Pinnacle. I live in Toronto so no problems with signing up. It sucks that the US is so strict towards online gambling that some sites won't even accept residents as members.

I'm going to start the chase on Thursday's game. Would you recommend placing my wager as soon as the RL is released since I've read it can fluctuate as it gets closer to game time?

Also, when looking at the lines on Covers.com, do I use the ML lines from PinnacleSports only to make my list of games or do I use the best (highest negative number) ones that I can find?

Good luck to you and everyone else for the rest of the season. Too bad a system like this couldn't be used year-round!

[cocknocker]

The testing is over now. So you either up your bet amounts to make real and not virtual money, or put a feather in your cap for being smart and having a higher iq than earnings. The objective is not about being able to master the action. It's about building up your bankroll. To me it looks as if you are getting more shorts than props. Something is going to have to change

[Nickelicious]

I'm a noobie here, too, but not in Vegas. I'm buying in until the fat lady kicks the bucket (I love a senseless mixed metaphor).

Thanks billdo75. Keep it up.

And trust me, cocknocker, I will be putting in some real money into this system.

[mikeveli20]

Hey Bildo,

Just to make sure I got this right, I just checked the lines on Covers.com and the only two that qualified were:

-205 Cleveland
-170 Atlanta

So when Pinnacle (my sportsbook) releases their run lines tomorrow, I would go with the team that has the highest ML and a positive RL? And if neither of those two teams listed above has a positive RL, then I skip the day and go to the next. Is this correct? Or do I need to wait for Pinnacle to release their ML as well and then base my list off of that?

[mikeveli20]

GL mate!

If you can hit over %40 on the long run, you can use Labouchere (Cancellation system)

How would the Labouchere system be applied to the system proposed by Bildo?

[Nickelicious]

Cleveland (largest ML - 1st possibility) is not a play as they are EVEN on the RL. Atlanta (2nd largest ML - 2nd possibility) is the play as they are +120 on the RL.

[mikeveli20]

Cleveland (largest ML - 1st possibility) is not a play as they are EVEN on the RL. Atlanta (2nd largest ML - 2nd possibility) is the play as they are +120 on the RL.

Atlanta was my bet as well. On PinnacleSports, Cleveland had a RL of just above even (102), but Atlanta's was 121 so I went with them since Cleveland's was barely above even and they're the 2nd worst team in the league.

[Nickelicious]

Let's ride with Atlanta, Mike. GL! I hope we can keep this thread alive the rest of the season to confirm every eligible wager. Is Atlanta a C bet? I am new to this system and not sure if I should go heavy on this bet (which is my first).

[mikeveli20]

It's my first bet as well. I'm chasing 1% of my bankroll. I just deposited $500 so that would be $5. Haven't decided yet if I'm going to use the adjusted system where the chase amount is a multiple of the original amount for each following game. GL to all!

[Nickelicious]

My current BR is ~$4,000 and I'm going 2% on this, so I put down $80 to win 96. Quite a bit more than yours, but clearly we are small-timers compared to the sharps on this board.

I am willing to chase this into a fourth bet if necessary. The system here was modified from a system that goes six bets deep as needed, which is insane (but it has worked 100% of the time).

Bear in mind, if I want to win that $96 on a 4th bet, based on +120 odds per bet (which is optimistic) I would need to wager about $920 and would have $1,700 at risk for the 4 bets. This is not for the faint of heart.

Your risk ($5 to win 6) is 1/16th of mine, so on a fourth bet you would need to risk about $57 and would have over $100 at risk for the 4 bets. Just to win $5. That is, if you decide to use the adjusted system and chase your original winnings. If you just wager individually on each qualifying game in this system, the W/L record is 18-14 (with more than +100 odds, mind you). The pure system series wagers are 18-0.

[Nickelicious]

And the system bets have only gone to a 3rd wager 3 times out of 34 games and won all 3. Haven't gone to a 4th game yet. I am comfortable going to that 3rd wager.

[Nickelicious]

And I still don't get how you determine a C bet from an A bet. Theoretically, you would start from the beginning of the season and move on from there, but for clowns like us who catch on late, you might start with any game at any point in the season. The crux of the system is that the wager won't lose more than twice in a row. Compare that to the original system, which allowed for betting on even bigger favorites and still had one 5th bet and one 6th bet in 111 games.

A six-game chase is unworkable. On paper, with lower odds, this system would seem to invite a 7 or 8 game chase, which is virtually pointless because you'd be risking like $10,000 to win $1 (I haven't done the math). So everyone should be careful.

This kinda shit is why I am still loyal to the JM systems. Until I hit a 3-loss season, I maintain my bankroll.

[MainEventOrBust]

GL mate!

If you can hit over %40 on the long run, you can use Labouchere (Cancellation system) as well, it's more safe than martingale.

Do you know the longest losing streak?

Can you point to a good resource for Laboucher?

[peterpan19]

My current BR is ~$4,000 and I'm going 2% on this, so I put down $80 to win 96. Quite a bit more than yours, but clearly we are small-timers compared to the sharps on this board.

I am willing to chase this into a fourth bet if necessary. The system here was modified from a system that goes six bets deep as needed, which is insane (but it has worked 100% of the time).

Bear in mind, if I want to win that $96 on a 4th bet, based on +120 odds per bet (which is optimistic) I would need to wager about $920 and would have $1,700 at risk for the 4 bets. This is not for the faint of heart.

Your risk ($5 to win 6) is 1/16th of mine, so on a fourth bet you would need to risk about $57 and would have over $100 at risk for the 4 bets. Just to win $5. That is, if you decide to use the adjusted system and chase your original winnings. If you just wager individually on each qualifying game in this system, the W/L record is 18-14 (with more than +100 odds, mind you). The pure system series wagers are 18-0.

ok guys...lets make some real money here...I am in too... to win $500 for the A bet so lets do it ...I will take ATL RL +120 risking $416.66 to win $500 today... I will give the system 1 week... hell maybe its so good and I will up the amouint to win after a week or so... ... line jumped too much...so its not a play anymore right now for me...only +100 or worse...or maybe I wait and see what bodog has as line today...

...just to make things a bit more interesting guys... I know there are probably bigger players out there but just so you know your not alone...

GL today...

[billdo75]

Bodog run lines are up. Cleveland at -105 and Atlanta at +100. I'll check again at 10:00, but if I don't have a play at that point, I'm ruling no action and picking up tomorrow.

[be4orr]

Hey billdo75 I took Cle-1.5 @ +102. Is that the correct play ?

[mikeveli20]

My current BR is ~$4,000 and I'm going 2% on this, so I put down $80 to win 96. Quite a bit more than yours, but clearly we are small-timers compared to the sharps on this board.

I am willing to chase this into a fourth bet if necessary. The system here was modified from a system that goes six bets deep as needed, which is insane (but it has worked 100% of the time).

Bear in mind, if I want to win that $96 on a 4th bet, based on +120 odds per bet (which is optimistic) I would need to wager about $920 and would have $1,700 at risk for the 4 bets. This is not for the faint of heart.

Your risk ($5 to win 6) is 1/16th of mine, so on a fourth bet you would need to risk about $57 and would have over $100 at risk for the 4 bets. Just to win $5. That is, if you decide to use the adjusted system and chase your original winnings. If you just wager individually on each qualifying game in this system, the W/L record is 18-14 (with more than +100 odds, mind you). The pure system series wagers are 18-0.

Yeah, I just decided to start out really small and then go from there. I'm trying out another MLB system as well so if both were to lose in the first week, I wouldn't want to lose like 2gs right out of the gate lol.

I too am considering only going 4 bets deep for the chase as I also discovered that so far this system hasn't even went passed the 3rd bet and some other systems I was comparing too only went passed the 4th bet once. We'll see what happens. GL and let's go Braves!

[mikeveli20]

Hey billdo75 I took Cle-1.5 @ +102. Is that the correct play ?

Can't speak for him, but I believe technically yes it's correct, but I went with the Braves game because Cleveland is the 2nd worst team in the league and the RL was barely above even. My own little filter I decided to put on lol.

However, since I made my bet, Cleveland's RL on PinnacleSports has jumped to 108 and Atlanta's dropped from 121 to 106 but I was able to get my bet in at since I made it as soon as the RLs came out.

[Nickelicious]

Bodog run lines are up. Cleveland at -105 and Atlanta at +100. I'll check again at 10:00, but if I don't have a play at that point, I'm ruling no action and picking up tomorrow.

That's quite a move in our favor on the Atlanta line, from +120 to +100 (my book still has them at +105). But billdo's gotta play the system the way he designed it and if he rules no action, then there is no action.

Officially.

I still like the match-up against the Mets and will ride with Atlanta. Since it's an A bet for me, my risk is still pretty low.

[Nickelicious]

Can you point to a good resource for Laboucher?

This came from SBR John right on this Forum:
Labouchere System

This system is also called the 'Cancellation' system. There are many variations. In its simplest form, A player writes down a series or a set of numbers; say, 1 2 3 4 5 6. The series can be short or long and not necessarily sequential such as 1 1 1 3 3 5 7. The choice of a particular series depends on the type of game you want to apply it to and the odds of the bet.

Each number represents the amount in units or chips to bet. You bet the first and last of these numbers. In this example 1 and 6, which totals 7 units. If you win, you cross out the two numbers and bet the next two 'ends' (the outside numbers). In this instance 2 and 5. If you win again you bet on the next two remaining numbers 3 and 4, and if you win that too, you would have made a 'coup' or completed one game. Then you start all over again. If you lose, then you add that one number to the end of the series. Say you lost your first bet of 7 units (1+ 6). Then you add number 7 to the end of the series to look like this: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and your next bet would be 8 units (1+ 7). If you won the first bet but lost the second 2 and 5, then the series of numbers would look like this: 2 3 4 5 7.

If you work it out, you will see that when the series is completed or when you make a 'coup', there is always a profit. The negative side of this system is that you could end up betting large sums of money even if your initial bet is small.

[Nickelicious]

My book now has the Dodgers as a play (unofficial). ML -150 / RL +150

Unofficial because it meets the basic ML/RL criteria but it did not open at those odds.

Don't mean to overload this thread unnecessarily, but the Dodgers are usually a popular play. Facing off against Houston's Wandy Rodriguez tonight, though (8-6, ERA 2.96).

[Nickelicious]

Atlanta hit tonight. Score one for the unofficial system play!

Cleveland hit, too, though I didn't get in on that one.

Helluva system, billdo.

[mikeveli20]

So do we now wait until tomorrow when Covers.com releases their lines to make our bets? My book already has their lines out for tomorrow so should I bet now?

[Nickelicious]

Hell, Mike, it ain't my system. But I can tell you what I like to do. Bet the overnight lines before everyone piles in after the sharps. I've got Atlanta again as the pick tomorrow (-190 ML, +105 RL). They've got Jurrjens on the mound and he's been pretty consistent all year. For the Mets, Pelfrey has been a bit up and down and his recent performances in Atlanta have been so-so. The Mets line-up is still banged up, too.

But capping isn't a part of the system. If there's one thing I've learned about systems, it is not to deviate from the system! The system says bet this one and I'm doing it now (2 units). I'm not super confident that the Braves beat the Mets by 2+ runs two nights in a row, but I'm following the system. Of course, last night we won on an unofficial play!

I hope billdo will weigh in with his stamp of approval sometime in the next 12 hours. By that time, Atlanta could drop to +100 and we don't have an official play again. I'm going with it tonight, though. It worked last time. And again, this is an A bet for me and 2 units is no big deal. I think billdo has an official bet C as the next wager, so he might be more cautious.

[mikeveli20]

Atlanta is the play for me too. My book gave it +115 on the RL. I'm skeptical since we just bet on Atlanta, but I'm going to follow the system as it's supposed to be.

What exactly is the difference between an unofficial and official play?

[Nickelicious]

Well, as billdo stated on the first post, he checks Covers for the ML and then uses Bodog for the RL. I like Covers (nice site, lotsa people there, good forum, but I like SBR better), but I don't have a BR with Bodog anymore.

So an official play would need to follow the system precisely: check Covers for the overnight money line, check Bodog for the morning run line and determine the first team on the list that qualifies.

Which is what we are doing, but with our own books. With the variance in books (just look at your RL +115 to my RL +105), it is quite possible that we would identify a play that billdo would find at +100 and declare it as a "no play." But like I said, I want overnight lines. I'm a night owl (after 2:00 AM here) and I can't wait for billdo to declare an official play many hours after I've already set up critical wagers for my card.

Billdo might very well agree that Atlanta is an official play tomorrow. It seems likely, since I doubt they will slip to +100 or less. And in the future, if you and me found a play with a +130 RL with little chance of another team usurping it, it would probably be an official play in the morning.

Bottom line, if this system is worth the time and money we plan to put into it, it will succeed with overnight lines as well as morning lines. If anything, it should work even better, because with the passage of time big favorites tend to get even bigger more often than not. But since I'm not the author of the system, it would take a clear cut candidate for me to say, "Yeah, this is gonna be an official play, no doubt!" Atlanta +105 is not clear cut enough for me to say that.

But as long as it keeps working, I say we keep playing.

[mikey360]

Atlanta is the play for me too. My book gave it +115 on the RL. I'm skeptical since we just bet on Atlanta, but I'm going to follow the system as it's supposed to be.

What exactly is the difference between an unofficial and official play?

I went with Atlanta tonight, it may not end up being Billdos pick since its dropped to +100 on some books.

Its still higher on Pinnacle which is what I use, but I don't know, I wish there was a clear cut selection everyday.

[billdo75]

Play for 7/17/2009:

C - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +130 (-155 ML / T-5th, W vs W), $22.04 to win $28.65

Braves and Cards were at -105 RL, Yankees were at -120 RL, SF was at +100 RL, and LA was tied at -155 ML with the Mariners, so Dodgers were the play based on tie breaker. As always, GL everybody!