Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

[billdo75]

Play for 8/17/2009:

A - Atlanta Braves -1½ +130 (-165 ML / T-3rd), 0.77 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals +105 / -160

Non-qualifying games on record:
Chicago White Sox -120 / -250
New York Yankees -130 / -200

Parlays:
1 - 1x 2 teams using ATL/STL, 0.50 to win 1.86 units overall

GL, everybody!

[billdo75]

This thread was started June 12th. In about 2 months, the straight bets at -1 has shown good profit. In anyone's expert opinion, would one believe that this could have worked the whole year? +33.79 units in a little over 2 months. +180 units the whole year? This way of betting is easy as pie. Could it be too good too be true.

Guess we'll have to wait until next year to find out A few notes:

1.) I started only tracking the official play for each day
2.) On 7/3, I started tracking the other qualifying games
3.) On 7/28, I started tracking the unqualified games

After reading this, I also realized that there was a minor screwup on my part. In order to work a -1 RL, you need a negative money line and a positive run line. The numbers you referenced above refer to the qualifying plays and nothing changes with them. The 5 pushes on the unqualified plays become losses and the hedged record mirrors the standard at 35-28. The only way to push on an unqualified play is to have even odds on the run line and a 1 run margin of victory, which hasn't happened yet. I will update the records.

[do5000]

looks like were all on ATL today
GL

[keel44]

You can work a -1 line with negative M/L and negative R/L. All you have to do is: bet to win the amount on the M/L to equal the amount risked on the R/L. I did it today with the White Sox. I bet $13.37 to win $11.63 on the R/L ..... I also bet $30.75 to win $13.37 on the M/L

-1 line ..... risked total of $44.12 to win $25

good thing. I needed it.

[billdo75]

Braves win 9-4. Parlay went 0-1 for -0.50 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 18-16 W1, +4.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 34-0, +34.01 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 21-17 W2, +6.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 34-4, +13.42 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAA

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 21-13-4 W1, +9.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 34-0, +34.01 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 25-13-6 W2, +13.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 34-4, +13.43 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAA

All filtered plays at -1½: 87-90, +13.78 units, +9.40% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 87-64-26 +35.05 units, +23.91% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 35-30, -0.15 units, -0.19% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 35-24-6, +6.90 units, +8.91% ROI

Parlays: 11-66, -7.05 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/18/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110 (-174 ML / 4th), 0.91 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
Texas Rangers +110 / -152
Boston Red Sox +105 / -148

Non-qualifying games on record:
San Francisco Giants -145 / -225
New York Yankees -145 / -220
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -140 / -201
Atlanta Braves -115 / -165
Chicago Cubs -120 / -164
Colorado Rockies -115 / -160
Los Angeles Dodgers +100 / -160

Parlays:
4 - 3x 2 teams, 1x 3 teams using PHI/TEX/BOS, 0.50 to win 9.03 units overall

GL, everybody!

[AceofSP2107]

bildo plays look good especially my home and fav team ...do you not post the other picks no more

[billdo75]

Nope. After going up nearly 70 units in 14 days at the beginning, it was a consistent loser. I think it had one other little spike upwards, but for the most part, it was a leisurely stroll downhill. I might look into it again this offseason. The 4-unit plays were strong throughout. I also need to backtest it for a couple seasons. Until then, I decided to just stick with what has been working for me all season long.

[MrMike]

Thanks for all the work you put in to this billdo. Just out of curiosity... do you have any system you use or are working on for NBA or do you just do MLB? I have just been enjoying this system and I hate to see the season coming to an end.

[BlueJays]

Thank you Billdo! I started watching your picks only last week, and I see your great results. Keep up the good work!

[billdo75]

Phillies win 5-1. Parlays went 0-4 for -2.00 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 19-16 W2, +5.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 35-0, +35.01 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 22-17 W3, +7.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 35-4, +14.42 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAA

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 22-13-4 W2, +10.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 35-0, +35.01 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 26-13-6 W3, +14.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 35-4, +14.43 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAA

All filtered plays at -1½: 88-92, +12.92 units, +8.65% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 88-65-27 +35.14 units, +23.53% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 38-34, -2.05 units, -2.38% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 38-26-8, +7.55 units, +8.75% ROI

Parlays: 11-70, -9.05 units

[AceofSP2107]

nice work

[billdo75]

Play for 8/19/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +125 (-168 ML / 4th), 0.80 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
Toronto Blue Jays +130 / -160

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers -130 / -300
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -125 / -250
Colorado Rockies -105 / -170
Atlanta Braves -120 / -170
Milwaukee Brewers -115 / -165
Chicago Cubs -130 / -154

Parlays:
1x 2 teams using PHI/TOR, 0.50 to win 2.09 units overall

GL, everybody!

[BlueJays]

Thank you Billdo for another great pick!

[billdo75]

Phillies win 8-1. Parlay went 0-1 for -0.50 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-16 W3, +6.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 36-0, +36.01 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAAA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 23-17 W4, +8.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 36-4, +15.42 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 23-13-4 W3, +11.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 36-0, +36.01 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAAA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 27-13-6 W4, +15.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 36-4, +15.43 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA

All filtered plays at -1½: 89-93, +13.15 units, +8.71% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 89-66-27 +10.46 units, +4.83% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 41-37, -2.55 units, -2.73% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 41-28-9, -4.92 units, -3.85% ROI

Parlays: 11-71, -9.55 units

NOTE: Discovered another error in my record-keeping. All of the -1 totals were previously using just the run line for determination of the units won and return on investment. That's not the case, however. Take a +125/-160 game for example. Previously, the +125 was used as the line of record, but because of the hedge on the money line, the true price of that play becomes ~-115:

+125 RL - $44.44 to win $55.56
-160 ML - $71.11 to win $44.44
Total - $115.55 to win $100.00 (-115)

I've adjusted the records above, but I've used overall averages for the filtered and unfiltered plays. The filtered plays come out to an average true line of -119, while the unfiltered plays come out to an average true line of -164. The records have been adjusted accordingly, but using the averages.

[billdo75]

Play for 8/20/2009:

A - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110 (-185 ML / 3rd), 0.91 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals +110 / -170
Colorado Rockies +110 / -160
Los Angeles Angels +105 / -155
Detroit Tigers +125 / -150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Tampa Bay Devil Rays -135 / -325
Texas Rangers -115 / -200
Boston Red Sox -120 / -175

Parlays:
26 - 10x 2 teams, 10x 3 teams, 5x 4 teams, 1x 5 teams using PHI/STL/COL/LAA/DET, 2.60 to win 25.77 units overall

GL, everybody!

[EXhoosier10]

Billdo, what kind of results are you seeing on the games under "Other qualifying games on record"? You're top plays are definitely doing well and I appreciate your picks.

[jaltiere]

Can someone please explain to me how the hedged -1 RL works? I'm liking this system, trying to figure out the best way to set it up for next year.......

[mikeveli20]

Can someone please explain to me how the hedged -1 RL works? I'm liking this system, trying to figure out the best way to set it up for next year.......

Whatever you are risking on the RL, bet to win on the ML. This way, if your team wins only by 1 run, you lose your RL wager but win that amount on the ML to make it a push. What I would do is put just over half a unit on the RL and then the same amount on the ML to cover instead of just putting 1 single unit on the RL.

Your total bet will be slightly more than what you're hoping to win since you're laying down on the -ML. I used this hedged system for awhile and even though I got the push a couple of times, I was having to put up a lot more money so I switched back. I found on average, the amount I would put up in total to get to a C bet would be close to the same it would cost to get to an E bet when just betting on the +RL.

Here's an equation I used to figure out the values if you want to give it a shot:

W - Total amount you want to win
R - Run line wager
RL - Run line odds
M - Moneyline wager
ML - Moneyline odds
T - Total wager


R = W / ((RL/100)+1)

M = ((-1*ML)/100) * R

T = R + M

[AceofSP2107]

billdo outstanding pick tonight

[brandon m]

Phillies cashed 3 days strait thats what I'm talking about. This system is money!

[billdo75]

Phillies win 12-3. Parlays went 4-22 for -0.35 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 21-16 W4, +7.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 37-0, +37.01 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 24-17 W5, +9.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 37-4, +16.42 units
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 24-13-4 W4, +12.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 37-0, +37.01 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 28-13-6 W5, +16.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 37-4, +16.43 units
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

All filtered plays at -1½: 92-95, +14.40 units, +9.26% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 92-67-28 +12.07 units, +5.41% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 43-38, -1.90 units, -1.95% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 43-29-9, -4.62 units, -3.47% ROI

Parlays: 15-93, -9.90 units

[billdo75]

Billdo, what kind of results are you seeing on the games under "Other qualifying games on record"? You're top plays are definitely doing well and I appreciate your picks.

Played as straight bets at -1½ and not a chase, the top plays since I started tracking have gone 37-29 for +12.23 units and +21.59% ROI. The extra qualifying games have gone 55-66 for +2.17 units and +2.20% ROI. The non-qualifying games have gone 43-38 for -1.90 units and -1.95% ROI.

[jaltiere]

Thanks mikeveli20, makes sense now.

[BlueJays]

Thanks Billdo for another great pick! I hope we'll not go to a D bet too soon!

[billdo75]

Play for 8/21/2009:

A - Colorado Rockies -1½ +125 (-175 ML / 4th), 0.80 to win 1.00 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
St Louis Cardinals +120 / -155
Detroit Tigers +115 / -155
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +125 / -150
Los Angeles Dodgers +140 / -150

Non-qualifying games on record:
Atlanta Braves -115 / -205
Chicago White Sox +100 / -200
Houston Astros -105 / -200
Philadelphia Phillies -120 / -185

Parlays:
4 - 3x 2 teams, 1x 3 teams using COL/DET/TBD, 2.00 to win 10.35 units overall.

I was going to use STL in the parlay, but I'm also playing SDP +1½ via another system. I've decided to just stick to the top 3 for parlays. That would've been a sweep yesterday. Oh well. There have been a couple times since I started the parlays that the top 3 yielded a profit, but teams 4 and/or 5 ended up killing me. Hard to believe I've wagered over 100 parlays in just a couple weeks time. Jesus!

GL, everybody!

[ZBOIZ]

I was thinking of parlaying Houston RL and Colorado RL..WHAT YOU THINK ?

[mikeveli20]

I was thinking of parlaying Houston RL and Colorado RL..WHAT YOU THINK ?

Those are two of the teams I have. I also have the White Sox. The lines I get on Pinnacle are slightly different than Bildo's so I end up with different plays from time to time.

Questions for Bildo. Since you're now only doing the top 3 teams for parlays from here on out, are you going to continue putting 0.5 unit to risk on each parlay or are you going to change your money management now that it's only always going to be the top 3 (or 2 if only 2 qualify)?

[BlueJays]

COL looking...BAD!

[mikeveli20]

These parlays are killing me. No sweeps since I started, down almost 9 units.

[AceofSP2107]

billdo well get them tomarrow Col on the other hand

[billdo75]

Rockies lose 3-6. Parlays went 0-4 for -2.00 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 21-17 L1, +6.36 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 37-0, +36.21 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 24-18 L1, +8.53 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 37-4, +15.62 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 24-14-4 L1, +11.94 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 37-0, +36.21 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 28-14-6 L1, +15.94 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 37-4, +15.63 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

All filtered plays at -1½: 93-99, +12.18 units, +7.64% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 93-69-30 +10.34 units, +4.50% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 43-42, -6.30 units, -6.20% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 43-32-10, -10.73 units, -7.52% ROI

Parlays: 15-97, -11.90 units

[billdo75]

Play for 8/22/2009:

B - Atlanta Braves -1½ +115 (-180 ML / 3rd), 1.57 to win 1.80 unit

Other qualifying games on record:
New York Yankees +105 / -165
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +115 / -165

Non-qualifying games on record:
Philadelphia Phillies -145 / -230
St Louis Cardinals -125 / -230
Chicago White Sox +100 / -185
Colorado Rockies -110 / -175

Parlays:
1 - 1x 2 teams using ATL/TBD, 0.50 to win 1.81 units overall.

High volume day, today! I've got 10 plays booked. Let's all make some money today...

[kimbluntzz]

Non-qualifying games on record:
Philadelphia Phillies -145 / -230
St Louis Cardinals -125 / -230
Chicago White Sox +100 / -185
Colorado Rockies -110 / -175
B - Atlanta Braves -1½ +115 (-180 ML / 3rd), 1.57 to win 1.80 unit

Thanks bildo75 i hit a 5 team parlay becasue of you took ur ATL pick with the non-qualifying games and hit a 2 team with STL & Phil $$$

your the ****ing man, too bad ATL won by one lets get it tomorrow baby

[billdo75]

Braves lost 4-3. Parlay went 0-1 for -0.50 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 21-17 L1, +6.36 units
B plays: 9-8 L3, +4.61 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 37-0, +34.64 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAFAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 24-18 L1, +8.53 units
B plays: 9-9 L3, +2.87 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 37-4, +14.05 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACCBAACBABABAAAXCAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 24-14-4 L1, +11.94 units
B plays: 7-6-1 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 37-0, +36.21 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAADAABBDBAAAAADAADAAAA

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 28-14-6 L1, +15.94 units
B plays: 7-6-1 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 37-4, +15.63 units **Chasing**
Results: BBACABAACBAAAAAAAXAAABBXABAAAAAXAAAXAAAA A

All filtered plays at -1½: 93-102, +9.49 units, +5.85% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 93-70-32 +9.07 units, +3.88% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 47-42, -2.30 units, -2.16% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 47-32-10, -6.70 units, -4.49% ROI

Parlays: 15-98, -12.40 units