Modified Chase System (Covers, +RL)

VegasPlayer · 08-14-09, 09:07 PM

Ouch!!!! Nunez gives up the slam to a guy hitting .131 on the road? That's baseball. We'll get em tommorrow.

brandon m · 08-14-09, 09:09 PM

Ouch I was kicking myself in the ass for the past 3 hours because I had took cincy instead of florida today, but looks like they both lost, oh well we'll get em tomorrow

.

billdo75 · 08-15-09, 10:49 AM

Reds lose 0-2. Parlay went 0-1 for -0.50 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-16 L1, +3.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-3 L3, +2.19 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 32-0, +29.43 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 19-17 L1, +4.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-3 L2, +5.75 units
Chase record: 32-3, +14.52 units **Chasing**

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-13-4 L1, +8.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
D plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 32-0, +29.43 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 23-13-6 L1, +11.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-3-0 L3, -1.19 units
Chase record: 32-3, +14.53 units **Chasing**

All filtered plays at -1½: 83-86, +13.11 units, +9.37% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 83-61-25 +33.43 units, +23.88% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 30-26, -0.30 units, -0.45% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 30-21-5, +5.55 units, +8.27% ROI

Parlays: 10-54, -4.80 units

billdo75 · 08-15-09, 10:54 AM

Play for 8/15/2009:

C - Cincinnati Reds -1½ +115 (-180 ML / T-2nd), 3.10 to win 3.57 units

Other qualifying games on record:
Chicago Cubs +120 / -175
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +115 / -175
Minnesota Twins +130 / -165

Non-qualifying games on record:
Detroit Tigers -120 / -235
St Louis Cardinals -120 / -235
Los Angeles Angels +100 / -165

Parlays:
11 - 6x 2 teams, 4x 3 teams, 1x 4 teams using CIN/CHC/TBD/MIN, 2.20 to win 16.80 units overall

GL, everybody!

AceofSP2107 · 08-15-09, 11:47 AM

GL

mikeveli20 · 08-15-09, 12:47 PM

We need a sweep on these parlays to recoup some losses and then some. BOL

brandon m · 08-15-09, 02:51 PM

Well Leg one down, 3 to go!

brandon m · 08-15-09, 07:17 PM

Reds getting the score run up on them. No more reds plays plz!!

VegasPlayer · 08-15-09, 07:43 PM

It's a chase, Twins got smoked at home too.

brandon m · 08-15-09, 08:18 PM

Yeah, but the reds should never be -175 vs anybody. I mean were talking about the reds here

VegasPlayer · 08-15-09, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by brandon m

Yeah, but the reds should never be -175 vs anybody. I mean were talking about the reds here

Yea, Hindsight is 20/20. Both teams that didn't cover are below .500, but the Reds have split their last 10 games tho. Minny is just playing out the string I'm afraid. They are losing to teams that they should be beating easily. I had to work today, so I didn't pay alot of attention to this play. I may think twice next time when the system spits out a team under .500. I'm happy overall tho, picked up 10+ units so far and not done yet. And, the chase is still on.

Blargh · 08-15-09, 10:49 PM

I use the opening lines in the SBR live odds. They had Tampa at -170 and the Reds at -168.
Using a combo of SBR opening lines and Pinnacle, I am on a 6 game win streak and is 11-4 for August so far.
But I think this is first time I ever noticed that my play and the official play differed due to opening lines. It often differs due to me getting a higher ML fave but at lower RL odds.

brandon m · 08-15-09, 11:43 PM

So you use the opening lines? Or the ones that have changed?

brandon m · 08-15-09, 11:45 PM

Because when I was just looking at it based on what you said, detroit opened at -103 or something on the runline now they are +105. So they are not the play if you use opening lines, but they would be if you bought it now.

Blargh · 08-16-09, 01:19 AM

I use the opening lines in the Live Odds link for SBR at the top of the page. I have been tempted at time to use a line that has moved but the system seems to work best when using the opening lines instead of current.
I use whatever team has the highest ML and a runline of +101 or more at the time I place the bet. The time at which you place the bet can make a large difference in what team you get. Earlier in the week, the Twins was the play when I was going to make the pick but when I looked at the runline movement I saw that earlier in the day I could have had the Red Sox, Braves or another team as dogs on the RL but they had all since moved to favs on the RL.
I think using Pinnacle with the 10 cent RL has really helped.
Since July 12th, the offical picks has been 14-18.
Using Pinnacle lines the picks have been 24-8 as the picks I ended up with. The timing of your picks would likely change the record.
The only real downside I see is that since you get bigger favs at closer to +100 Rl odds, is that when a long chase occurs, each bet will be largre compared to the offical picks.
Other than using SBR opening lines and pinnacle for the RL odds, I have followed the system blindly and have not allowed any personal judgements on the teams or on what I predict the outcome to be. On one occasion the underdog I liked the most was facing the team that qualified for this system. I went with the system over my gut and came out a winner for that night.

FreeFall · 08-16-09, 11:38 AM

no play for 8/16?

mikey360 · 08-16-09, 11:45 AM

Im rolling with Detroit today, managed to get them at +105 im not sure if they opened a higher ML fav than Tampa though, so it might not be what the official play is.

FreeFall · 08-16-09, 11:54 AM

STL is the play b/c bodog has det and tam at higher than +101

billdo75 · 08-16-09, 11:55 AM

Reds lose 6-10. Parlays went 1-10 for -1.25 units. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-16 L1, +3.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 2-1 W2, +7.85 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 32-0, +26.33 units **Chasing**

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 19-17 L1, +4.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 32-4, +11.42 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-13-4 L1, +8.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 unitsD plays: 3-0-2 W3, +17.90 units
Chase record: 32-0, +26.33 units **Chasing**

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 23-13-6 L1, +11.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 32-4, +11.43 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 85-88, +13.47 units, +9.40% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 85-63-25 +33.79 units, +23.58% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 33-26, +2.70 units, +3.83% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 33-21-5, +8.55 units, +12.12% ROI

Parlays: 11-64, -6.05 units

Play for 8/16/2009:

D(A) - St Louis Cardinals -1½ +125 (-180 ML / T-4th), 5.34(0.80) to win 6.68(1.00) units

Other qualifying games on record:
Minnesota Twins +135 / -160

Non-qualifying games on record:
Chicago Cubs -145 / -260
Detroit Tigers -110 / -230
New York Yankees -125 / -185
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +100 / -180
Los Angeles Dodgers -105 / -155

Parlays:
1 - 1x 2 teams using STL/MIN, 0.50 to win 2.14 units overall

GL, everybody!

do5000 · 08-16-09, 11:58 AM

I am also on DET.

this system has worked great but bodog lists lines much later than most other books. using other books allows you to get a +105 fav before it gets pushed to -105 byt 11:30am (est).

i think i am also going to follow pinnacle (or 5dimes) and see if it works out better. aside from CHC games that are always posted later, i think it will allow me to get a bet in earlier.

we'll see how it goes....

GL

mikey360 · 08-16-09, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by FreeFall

STL is the play b/c bodog has det and tam at higher than +101

I can't even find baseball listings on Bodog, it looks like MLB has been removed for UK members.

jj28 · 08-16-09, 12:02 PM

Thanks Bildo for posting. Thought you were asleep. so many early games today, didnt know what to bet on....was getting worried. haha

brandon m · 08-16-09, 12:58 PM

You should use Betjam or bookmaker. Betjam has cheaper lines but not as many options and props. Bookmaker has slightly inflated lines but they offer everything, and they have tomorrows lines up right now probably.

mikeveli20 · 08-16-09, 07:05 PM

Walk off 2 run blast cardinals!!! Wooooooo!!

Just cashed 3 out of 4 parlays and my chase bet with that one.

brandon m · 08-16-09, 07:31 PM

Wow what a finish I actually stopped paying attention to it in the eight after pujols got out. Lol looked back and I'm like WTF. LOL NICE WIN

jj28 · 08-16-09, 07:39 PM

wow. that was a miracle. I seriously said,

"god, please let them get a double, then a single to tie the game, and then a homerun to win it." I said this before the inning started, and thats exactly what happened. haahahahahahahahah.
Whew, this was a bet d for me, and i could've been down a lot. Thank goodness for rausmas.

AceofSP2107 · 08-16-09, 07:46 PM

i was doing that on my way home i cut off all types of sports when it was 5-4 then i just look unreal good job

VegasPlayer · 08-16-09, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by brandon m

Yeah, but the reds should never be -175 vs anybody. I mean were talking about the reds here

Originally posted by VegasPlayer

Ouch!!!! Nunez gives up the slam to a guy hitting .131 on the road? That's baseball. We'll get em tommorrow.

I just got home. Left after the 8th also. This one made a so-so day OK. These things have a way of balancing themselves out. If you stick with it, the bad beats are offset by 9th innings like today.

brandon m · 08-16-09, 08:31 PM

Yeah I been on the good end of a few of these 9th inning wins by teams in the past few days, Boston and now STL. Its nice to be on the good end of these.

VegasPlayer · 08-16-09, 08:36 PM

Yea, me too. Almost forgot about that one. Got beat by the Met's today in the 9th tho. 8 Units.

keel44 · 08-16-09, 09:45 PM

This thread was started June 12th. In about 2 months, the straight bets at -1 has shown good profit. In anyone's expert opinion, would one believe that this could have worked the whole year? +33.79 units in a little over 2 months. +180 units the whole year? This way of betting is easy as pie. Could it be too good too be true.

do5000 · 08-16-09, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by Blargh

I use the opening lines in the Live Odds link for SBR at the top of the page. I have been tempted at time to use a line that has moved but the system seems to work best when using the opening lines instead of current.
I use whatever team has the highest ML and a runline of +101 or more at the time I place the bet. The time at which you place the bet can make a large difference in what team you get. Earlier in the week, the Twins was the play when I was going to make the pick but when I looked at the runline movement I saw that earlier in the day I could have had the Red Sox, Braves or another team as dogs on the RL but they had all since moved to favs on the RL.
I think using Pinnacle with the 10 cent RL has really helped.
Since July 12th, the offical picks has been 14-18.
Using Pinnacle lines the picks have been 24-8 as the picks I ended up with. The timing of your picks would likely change the record.
The only real downside I see is that since you get bigger favs at closer to +100 Rl odds, is that when a long chase occurs, each bet will be largre compared to the offical picks.
Other than using SBR opening lines and pinnacle for the RL odds, I have followed the system blindly and have not allowed any personal judgements on the teams or on what I predict the outcome to be. On one occasion the underdog I liked the most was facing the team that qualified for this system. I went with the system over my gut and came out a winner for that night.

Hey blargh,

using pinny what is the longest your chases have gone?
with regards to the 24-8 record.

brandon m · 08-16-09, 11:52 PM

I thought that Bildo was using pinnacle lines?

Blargh · 08-17-09, 12:54 AM

I know Bildo wasn't using Pinnacle lines. He mentioned the book he uses a few times earlier in the thread. I think he said Bodog but I can't remember for sure.

Went to a D bet once. Aug 7-10th. WSox, Tigers, Giants losers and then DBacks winners.
3 B chases, 1 C chase and one D chase.
But I have a B bet tommorrow. Tigers qualified for the Pinnacle play today. Yankees was the early qualifying play for tomorrow except there has been a pitching change and Pinnacle pulled the game and hasn't reissued it yet. Otherwise it's the Braves. Unless the WSox RL which has gone from -114 to -105 keeps moving. The timing of the bet really makes a big difference.

billdo75 · 08-17-09, 11:02 AM

Cardinals win 7-5. Parlay was 0-1 for -0.50 unit. Updated records:

I. Standard -1½ RL with no cap:
A plays: 17-16 L1, +3.16 units
B plays: 9-7 L2, +6.18 units
C plays: 3-4 L4, -0.91 units
D plays: 3-1 W3, +14.53 units
E plays: 0-1 L1, -9.57 units
F plays: 1-0 W1, +19.62 units
Chase record: 33-0, +33.01 units

II. Standard -1½ RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 20-17 W1, +5.33 units
B plays: 9-8 L2, +4.44 units
C plays: 4-4 L3, +2.65 units
Chase record: 33-4, +12.42 units

III. Hedged -1 RL with no cap:
A plays: 20-13-4 L1, +8.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
D plays: 4-0-2 W4, +24.58 units
Chase record: 33-0, +33.01 units

IV. Hedged -1 RL with chase capped at C bets:
A plays: 24-13-6 W1, +12.74 units
B plays: 7-6-0 L2, +3.98 units
C plays: 2-4-0 L4, -4.29 units
Chase record: 33-4, +12.43 units

All filtered plays at -1½: 86-89, +13.73 units, +9.48% ROI
All filtered plays at -1: 86-64-25 +34.05 units, +23.51% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1½: 35-28, +2.35 units, +3.14% ROI
All unfiltered plays at -1: 35-23-5, +8.20 units, +10.94% ROI

Parlays: 11-65, -6.55 units