System Integrity?

ploben · 04-20-09, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by do5000

3 in a row!
last two were easy covers.

no lines out for tomorrow yet, although Doc at home against the rangers looks to be up there.

Bookmaker has lines out and it's the same old story:

OAK @ NYY -275
CIN @ CHC -230
TEX @ TOR -230

aneurysm00 · 04-20-09, 02:28 PM

Missed the Red Sox bet today as I got up too late. (stupid 11am starts

).

I'll probably play the Yankees though it looks like it might be rained out along with a whole host of other games tonight.

owll52 · 04-20-09, 04:55 PM

Very wise statement Brooksie.... Fellas, as soon as you start injecting your opinions and a lack of discipline in commiting to the fundamental system, you will inevitably screw up it's success... Case in point yesterday... System play was NYY, which covered... Some didn't like the way NY has been underperforming (understandable) and went with BOS, who by the way only won by one run....

Your right HRK. I lost faith in the Yanks so I hedged my bet on the BoSox an with their 1 run win I got a push. Went with the system today and got a win. Only problem now is that the only account I have open is at Bodog and they are slow at getting their lines out. Was using Betjm and they no longer take echeck to fund your account, but in a while I'll figure out something because I need to get 3 accounts going.

brooks85 · 04-20-09, 07:24 PM

hey betterbob thanks for the work earlier on backtesting this. Do you have any information stored on NHL lines. I was thinking how this system would work for the nhl.

ploben · 04-20-09, 08:07 PM

Well I see CHI-town now in the fav lead with -250 and TOR @ -240. I like Halladay tomorrow. RL @ -115...little chalky

brooks85 · 04-21-09, 08:56 AM

TOR -1.5 is the play.

do5000 · 04-21-09, 09:20 AM

the NYY lines arent up everywhere, so as of now, TOR seems to be it for today.

ps does anybody have any data on a chase like this using the totals?
maybe betting the under on the highest total of the day (or vice versa). since the o/u lines are normally much closer to each other (if you pick over or under), it might have a more steady pace. less likely youll have to bet $100 to win $40...

ploben · 04-21-09, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

TOR -1.5 is the play.

How can you not ride the Halladay train? Only given up 7 ER, 1.05 WHIP...very nice numbers here.

TOR RL -110 / -240 ML

coreygman · 04-21-09, 09:51 AM

Here is what I see on my lines...

NYY A PETTITTE-L -210 No Money Line -1½ -115
TOR R HALLADAY-R -240 u8-105 -1½ -110
CUB R HARDEN -R -235 No Money Line No Run Line

So right now looking like Tor for me...

do5000 · 04-21-09, 09:53 AM

seems as though its a mix of TOR, NYY and CHC for top spot.
Pinny has Tor -215, Chc -220, NYY -210, betonline has Tor -220, Chc -230, NYY -220.
Sportsinteraction has TOR as the biggest fav (all above are ML).

i think we'd all like to stick with TOR, but if its not the heaviest fav, its not part of the system.
In this case i may stick with Halladay since one book has TOR as the biggest fav.

ploben · 04-21-09, 10:10 AM

It's funny cause I have Ian Kinsler on my MLB.com fantasy team, who has been rediculously white hot, so I am like, well maybe he can have a easy 1-4 day today if I bet TOR....lol

brooks85 · 04-21-09, 10:40 AM

I hope this system holds true because I don't know shit about baseball.

bsebal7 · 04-21-09, 10:49 AM

Best of luck today gentlemen!!!!

ploben · 04-21-09, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

I hope this system holds true because I don't know shit about baseball.

A wiser man once told me "Never bet on anything you don't understand", no matter at the casino, with a friend, or sports.

brooks85 · 04-21-09, 10:56 AM

Well, it is a good thing i am not betting, i am investing.

ploben · 04-21-09, 11:06 AM

Well played sir

brooks85 · 04-21-09, 11:11 AM

coreygman · 04-21-09, 11:39 AM

ya man Kinsler is rocking in Fantasy, rated #1 right now!

So you all playing Tor also? They have updated my line to include all bets now. From looking at last years stats, there seems to be a lot of - juices at the start of this year on the run line compared to last year? Thoughts?

TOR R HALLADAY-R -240 u8 -105 -1½ -110
NYY A PETTITTE-L -215 u9½ -115 -1½ -115
CUB R HARDEN -R -235 u8 -120 -1½ -105

do5000 · 04-21-09, 11:53 AM

i'm taking TOR and hoping for the best.

ploben · 04-21-09, 12:22 PM

I feel the juice is jacked up across the board, chalkier MLs, bigger gaps between favs and opp. Could be because of the early going we have streaky teams that continue to impress.

Thsi looks eerily familiar to CKs "1st inning run scored" system where the past years have always had + lines for a majority of the games and this year are all - lines.

I think the game has evolved also...bigger bats, crappier bullpens and overall teams are still trying to find a footing this early in the season. If anything, bet small now and maybe bump your chase amount up in a few weeks.

trinitiy · 04-21-09, 12:35 PM

I'm going with chicago cubs(r) harden, r -220 -230 / -240 / -230 -220 -1.5(-105)

aneurysm00 · 04-21-09, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by trinitiy

I'm going with chicago cubs(r) harden, r -220 -230 / -240 / -230 -220 -1.5(-105)

Me too. Biggest fav on Pinnacle when I took it.

As for the 1st innings, I'm not sure if this year has been any different to other years with respect to the odds. It's quite obviously set according to the total runs market of the match. Higher total runs - lower odds on a 1st innings score... and vice-versa.

Marvelboy · 04-21-09, 01:56 PM

Im gunna start a double chase which sounds stupid kinfda but my book has the cubbies and the blue jays and exactly the same on moneyline and runline so im gunna play both

Slanina · 04-21-09, 04:27 PM

This was deleted because it was a useless idea.

floridagolfer · 04-21-09, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by aneurysm00

Me too. Biggest fav on Pinnacle when I took it.

As for the 1st innings, I'm not sure if this year has been any different to other years with respect to the odds. It's quite obviously set according to the total runs market of the match. Higher total runs - lower odds on a 1st innings score... and vice-versa.

My site has the Cubs as the biggest favorite of the day, so that's what I went for. I understand those who think Halladay is the way to go, but the premise of this is to go with the day's biggest favorite, so that's what I did. Good luck to all.

Slanina · 04-21-09, 04:36 PM

So you are finding the team with the worst moneyline and betting on that team with the runline?

ploben · 04-21-09, 05:51 PM

You find the best team, biggest - ML, and play their RL. We had a few books put the Cubs at that spot and a few books had the Blue Jays at that spot. Seems like the board is split so hopfully they both win.

Slanina · 04-21-09, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by ploben

You find the best team, biggest - ML, and play their RL. We had a few books put the Cubs at that spot and a few books had the Blue Jays at that spot. Seems like the board is split so hopfully they both win.

Cool, thanks. Wanted to make sure. What is the record so far for 09? I might jump on this bandwagon but only for 5 bucks. Not going to lose 1k on a system I never seen in action.

ploben · 04-21-09, 06:35 PM

Records have been back tested in this forum and we got all the way to chase game 6, the last day, but hit. I think April is too early for most MLB systems but we have like 4 or 5 wins, not sure the offical count because some of us are playign different teams. We try, for the most post, to be on the same team.

Tonight we had a split between TOR and CHC.

aneurysm00 · 04-21-09, 10:35 PM

Maybe we should use opening lines to decide the favorite on the day so we can reduce the variability in the picks we seem to make. Today, CHC opened up as favorite and later on in the day TOR was showing up as favorites for a few hours before it moved back to CHC again.

If the opening lines are the same, we could probably set up some other criteria to decide on the favorite between the options.

Slanina · 04-22-09, 03:47 AM

I decided to give it a try starting last night. And took the blue jays. That worked out well.

Slanina · 04-22-09, 04:11 AM

It looks like it'll be the yankees with C.C. on the mound. Safe to assume this wll be the unanimous bet today. Considering nothing I see is even in the 200's and that game is at -270.

ploben · 04-22-09, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

It looks like it'll be the yankees with C.C. on the mound. Safe to assume this wll be the unanimous bet today. Considering nothing I see is even in the 200's and that game is at -270.

It is definatly safe to assume the Yanks will be the play BUT I would hold out betting untill this afternoon. Early money actually is moving towards OAK @ ~64%. I think we can get a better price on the NYY RL, which I see @ -130 (Bookmaker).

HarleyRoadKing · 04-22-09, 07:17 AM

For the purpose of uniformity in this thread, may I suggest that in determining the biggest favorite, we simply refer to the current lines in scoresandodds... Yesterday, that site had the cubs as the biggest favorite and not Toronto... Today, it is clearly the Yankees...

1:05 PM EDT 917 oakland athletics(l) anderson, b 9o20 9o20 9o15 +1.5(+106) betting closed 918 new york yankees(l) sabathia, c c -275 -275 -1.5(-116)

do5000 · 04-22-09, 07:53 AM

i had one book that had TOR and one that had CHC. picked the wrong one....

from now on i'm going to follow the odds at covers.com. if by some fluke there are two teams with the same odds, ill defer to the away team. id both are away, ill flip a coin.