System Integrity?

[do5000]

both PHI and CHC are at 159 now, so maybe PHI is the way to go.
i'll wait to see what happens tomorrow.

either way its an afternoon game, so dont take a late lunch!

[coreygman]

ya I just checked mine and Phi and Cubs are both at -165. Phi shows run line of +125 and the cubs game does not show yet

[do5000]

i dont remember if the system was biggest ml fav of the day, or biggest opening ml fav of the day.
anybody know?

[coreygman]

Well if we look at it for pitchers, hamels has been getting rocked for Phil and Zambrano for cubs seems to be getting better. But he is also going up against a tougher pitcher.

[do5000]

forget that, i found screaminpain's old post "I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar".
i guess this means its PHI. assuming neither LAA or DET open at higher than -175, which seems unlikely.

[do5000]

thats a good point, but i think we need to setup conditions so theres no opinion involved.
its tough to go against your gut, but i think this is supposed to work based on lines only.
we probably shouldnt even be looking at the teams playing.

[HarleyRoadKing]

ScoresandOdds had the Philly opening line at -175 and its now at -165... Cubs opened at -165 and are now at -160.... Looks like Philly is today's play fellas....

[do5000]

ok, PHI it is!

[dchecks]

I like both teams.. Phils is the correct play for the system but I think I'm gonna play the cubs also.. Hopefully they both cover..Go Philly good luck everybody!!

[ploben]

PHI is the play here today. The PHI line has fallen more than the CHC line, but again we see a lack a confidence in the favorite...kinda like yesterday with NYY.

I got PHI @ +125 RL

[ploben]

Interesting note (depending on when you started playing this) but I think this is the best RL we have seen so far this year. Most, if not all, the offshore books are @ +125,

[dchecks]

PHI is the play here today. The PHI line has fallen more than the CHC line, but again we see a lack a confidence in the favorite...kinda like yesterday with NYY.

I got PHI @ +125 RL

Not a lack of confidence, Philly is the play for the system.. I'm on board with Philly! Just merely stating that I'm bookin the cubs on my own play. Good Luck ploben and everybody else including me!!

[do5000]

ok, so we're agreed on PHI.
i'll make my bets now. pinnacle had phi -1.5 at +135, now its back down to +128

[ploben]

Not a lack of confidence, Philly is the play for the system.. I'm on board with Philly! Just merely stating that I'm bookin the cubs on my own play. Good Luck ploben and everybody else including me!!

I meant the public's lack of confidence, not this little group of system players. The public started hitting MIL and drove the PHI line down.

[coreygman]

I am going Phil to, my book its the highest now


PHI C HAMELS -L-180 u9½ -105 -1½ +115

[coreygman]

Interesting note (depending on when you started playing this) but I think this is the best RL we have seen so far this year. Most, if not all, the offshore books are @ +125,

I agree, and we were just talking about that to. Well I came to late and mine was at +115 only.

[ploben]

Well at least we know we won't have to sweat out another 14th inning HR with the Yanks tomorrow as our pick.

[ploben]

NYM @ -270 ML hosting WAS with Santana pitching. No doubt about that one.

[whatisit]

Gonna re-read this thread so I can properly learn this system. It's not meant to be played in APril right?

[do5000]

yeah, both PHI and CHC arent exactly "winning".
hopefully we'll make it back on the mets tomorrow.

[ploben]

Wow....NYM -290 ML/-130 RL (Bookmaker). I mean it is the Nats and it is Santana...things have to change for the Mets. I would advise holding out until like 6:30pm and see what this line does. Might be able to shave a few off the RL.

[floridagolfer]

Wow....NYM -290 ML/-130 RL (Bookmaker). I mean it is the Nats and it is Santana...things have to change for the Mets. I would advise holding out until like 6:30pm and see what this line does. Might be able to shave a few off the RL.

I actually think -130 is a decent RL price considering it's Santana at home against the worst team in baseball. But good luck if you decide to wait until later in the day.

[do5000]

I think i'm going to get in on the Mets now, seems like the line is climbing. opened at -265 and most books have them at -280, -290.

on an unrelated note, what do you guys think about adjusting each chase bet (after bet A) so that a win results in profit for the chase, not just breaking eve.
I thought about changing my B bet for today so if i win i'll be up 5% or 10% for this chase.
you can only make money after 2 consecutive wins, so if the chase keeps going for a month, but keeps resetting, you havent lost, but you havent won.
i think a flat 5% at least keeps you moving in the right direction and doesnt break the bank if you need to add it to each bet (for B to F).

[coreygman]

I think i'm going to get in on the Mets now, seems like the line is climbing. opened at -265 and most books have them at -280, -290.

on an unrelated note, what do you guys think about adjusting each chase bet (after bet A) so that a win results in profit for the chase, not just breaking eve.
I thought about changing my B bet for today so if i win i'll be up 5% or 10% for this chase.
you can only make money after 2 consecutive wins, so if the chase keeps going for a month, but keeps resetting, you havent lost, but you havent won.
i think a flat 5% at least keeps you moving in the right direction and doesnt break the bank if you need to add it to each bet (for B to F).

Maybe I am misunderstanding, but you are suppose to bet above your opening bet during the chase so you still win. For example if you are starting out with $20.00 then you would bet $20.00 over your chase bet to get your money back.

[coreygman]

here is my line on the mets...


NYM JO SANTANA-L -290 u8EV -1½ -130

[coreygman]

Hey guys, on a side note, I am looking at adding a 2nd book to use for lines and bets, what do you guys recommend?

[do5000]

thats right, but im saying if you bet $20 and lose, instead of making your next bet win $20, you make your next bet win you $21.00.
the idea is not just break even, but show a small profit on every chase win.

as an example if you chased a $20 for 3 days and won on the 4th, you would end up even.
if you chase a $20 for 3 days but adjusted the bet to win 5% more each time, on the 4th day you wouldnt be even.

not sure if i'm explaining this clearly or not.
bascially im saying
Bet A = 1 units
Bet B = Bet A + 0.05 units
Bet C = Bet B + 0.05 units ...
Its a small increase but at the end of a chase your win gets you a profit, not just a break even.

[floridagolfer]

thats right, but im saying if you bet $20 and lose, instead of making your next bet win $20, you make your next bet win you $21.00.
the idea is not just break even, but show a small profit on every chase win.

as an example if you chased a $20 for 3 days and won on the 4th, you would end up even.
if you chase a $20 for 3 days but adjusted the bet to win 5% more each time, on the 4th day you wouldnt be even.

not sure if i'm explaining this clearly or not.
bascially im saying
Bet A = 1 units
Bet B = Bet A + 0.05 units
Bet C = Bet B + 0.05 units ...
Its a small increase but at the end of a chase your win gets you a profit, not just a break even.

Yes, the idea is to make a profit when the chase ends, not just break even. You have it figured out.

I don't know how others do it, but I determine a profit I want to make with each series. If it's $10, your second game following a loss would be whatever provides you with $10 more than what you lost in Game 1. I guess you could do the same thing with a percentage instead of a dollar amount.

[do5000]

wow, i guess i misunderstood the whole thing.
i thought the goal was to keep potential losses in check by only trying to recoup losses and starting fresh.

looking back now, that seems "conservative" at best.

[ploben]

RIght...the idea is to have a "chase" amount in mind, say $10. So your A bet is to win $10. If you lose, then your B bet will be:

$10 + Whatever you risked on A

You try to win back your losses plus the amount you are trying to chase.

[ploben]

Bookmaker opened the NYM RL @ -130 now down to -120...it was inflated. Depending on your book, the lines might differ but this morning around 70% was on the NYM ML, so a good portion were betting WAS, this is why I made my statement about waiting out the RL. If NYM has 90% on them I would say bet the chalk right away because the books would be trying to drive the NYM lines way up to get some action on WAS. 70% on such a heavy favorite is poor, people obviously saw value in the WAS line and the books would have to compensate.

I don't see the RL falling much more, in fact it might jump back to -130, seeing the NYM ML has little to no value and the public is slamming it.

Booked NYM RL -120

[coreygman]

Yes, the idea is to make a profit when the chase ends, not just break even. You have it figured out.

I don't know how others do it, but I determine a profit I want to make with each series. If it's $10, your second game following a loss would be whatever provides you with $10 more than what you lost in Game 1. I guess you could do the same thing with a percentage instead of a dollar amount.

Yes that is fine to, but remember each time you increase, and lose then it makes it for a bigger bet the next bet, so you need to have a lot of money to risk on the line to win if we make it all the way to the 6 game chase.

[floridagolfer]

Yes that is fine to, but remember each time you increase, and lose then it makes it for a bigger bet the next bet, so you need to have a lot of money to risk on the line to win if we make it all the way to the 6 game chase.

You are correct. There are no easy games after you've lost four or five in a row, and the problem is compounded when your losers include a couple of heavy favorites.

[whatisit]

Hey guys, on a side note, I am looking at adding a 2nd book to use for lines and bets, what do you guys recommend?

5Dimes is great for baseball lines

[BTTNext]

I'm just wondering who decided to play the -1.5RL and who decided to play the -1RL?