System Integrity?

[ploben]

Play it like I see it....took the NYM @ +120 RL

[Slanina]

todays bet should be NYM, not SD (if we go by opening lines).
mets opened at -185 and SD opened at -171.

i'm on the mets today, hopefully they can do it twice in a row.

ps johncrud, you meant if you do a 6 game chase on RL right? (not ML)

The padres were the favored according to my lines at 2am last night. And they still are the favorites as I'm looking now. I still have the padres at -200 and the mets at -171. What book are you using that the lines between our books is such a huge gap?

[Slanina]

Play it like I see it....took the NYM @ +120 RL

How the heck can the runline be +120 but also be the favorite according to the moneyline. I have them at +110 and they aren't even close to being the favorite today.

[ploben]

How the heck can the runline be +120 but also be the favorite according to the moneyline. I have them at +110 and they aren't even close to being the favorite today.

We decided on opening lines to judge the system pick....
NYM - covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_6.html

SD - covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_22.html

At like 11:30am EST NYM RL was @ +120, and right now Bookmaker still has the NYM @ +120 RL.

Unless there is an significant injury that was released between the opening lines and the game, then we need to stick with the highest opening ML as the board fav.

[Slanina]

We decided on opening lines to judge the system pick....
NYM - covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_6.html

SD - covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/matchups/g4_summary_22.html

At like 11:30am EST NYM RL was @ +120, and right now Bookmaker still has the NYM @ +120 RL.

Unless there is an significant injury that was released between the opening lines and the game, then we need to stick with the highest opening ML as the board fav.

Fantastic. Well lets hope we both win cause I already placed my bet on the padres. Guess I shouldn't get the lines from an individual book.

[coreygman]

Well I have been just going with whatever is the favorite when I log in that morning.

[peterpan19]

well mest not looking too good...maybe the Padres hit later on...

GL

[do5000]

mets blew it.
CHW is tomorrow's bet.

[brooks85]

I don't think people have faith for any kind of chasing systems. Even if you are sacrificing 19 units to win 1 unit like the JM system, you still have people complaining about it.

If you do a 6 game chase on ML, the system is flawless to date.... the question is do you have the balls to do it. of course if you are planning to use a chase system, make sure your bankroll can support several series losses.

main difference between the two is that in the JM, when you lose, you dont lose nearly as much. This system, you dont win much per series. And again if the numbers are true, 824 wins with 13 loses, so that right there shows you there is no profit to be made. Run the chase on +100 odds and see how much a chase would cost even at 10 dollars a series.

[coreygman]

Lets Go SD! tied 2-2 right now in 5th

[coreygman]

scratch that, 3 run bomb for the bad guys

[Slanina]

Think I may give up on this. Since I've started I have won 2x for 20. And have chased to a game 2,3, and a 2 again pending tomorrow's chase. The W/L record is horribly bad.

[ploben]

I don't get the lack of faith because I thought this syetm did not lose last year at all. Hitters are getting better and bullpens across the board are worse.

I think Machine might have said earlier that chasing $10, $20, even 50 wasn't profitable. YOu would have to chase $100.

[coreygman]

ya the system has not failed yet, so I am not sure what you are doing wrong.

Prelim lines look like the white sox which confuses me, since Seattle is playing well this year


CWS J DANKS -L -210 u9 -115 -1½ EV

Next closest
PHI J BLANTON -R -175 u10½ -110 -1½ +120

[Slanina]

I don't get the lack of faith because I thought this syetm did not lose last year at all. Hitters are getting better and bullpens across the board are worse.

I think Machine might have said earlier that chasing $10, $20, even 50 wasn't profitable. YOu would have to chase $100.

My bankroll isn't big enough to chase to a game 6 for 100. Couldn't imagine myself betting that much on a single game if it were to go 6 games. Was hoping to win 200-300 and step it up to 25.

[ploben]

Like I said before, earlier in this thread Machine posted some good info on starting bankrolls depending on how much you were chasing. This held true for me when we chased all the way to 5, and some people the 6th day.

[ploben]

With the CHW line, because SEA has been good as of late with a good 7-3 road record, only 77% of the action is riding with the Sox. I would hold out on the RL untill later. I see it @ 110 right now and we might see it get a little better for our 2nd chase day.

[do5000]

sees like it should be CHW no matter what, as they opened highest.

[coreygman]

With the CHW line, because SEA has been good as of late with a good 7-3 road record, only 77% of the action is riding with the Sox. I would hold out on the RL untill later. I see it @ 110 right now and we might see it get a little better for our 2nd chase day.

Yep good call, mine is at +110 now

CWS J DANKS -L -205 u9 -115 -1½ +110

[johncrud]

I don't get the lack of faith because I thought this syetm did not lose last year at all. Hitters are getting better and bullpens across the board are worse.

I think Machine might have said earlier that chasing $10, $20, even 50 wasn't profitable. YOu would have to chase $100.

you are welcome to win 100 bucks per series if you have 6300 bucks. for me its just extra income. bet to win 10 bucks per each series, you can make 50 bucks to 100 bucks per month.

two days ago, the bettors who had Met RL were pissed off and letting their emotions out, while I had ML myself and won that game.

in the long run, i will be winning 25% more games with ML while chasing shorter series.

[do5000]

johncrud,

theres no question that you will win more games and have much shorter chases. but when there are really heavy favorites (in the -250, -300) range youre going to have to pay a lot to stay in the chase. a 3 or 4 game chase will bankrupt half the followers due to bankroll.

i think taking Fav -1 RL is a good way to split the difference.

bottom line is what each person wants and what works for them. if you cant sleep at night, its not worth it.

either way, if your ML system works 100%, it would take a VERY deidcated hater to tell you its not worthwhile.

ps how many seasons did you backtest your ML system on?

[brooks85]

betting to win 100 a series, being generous at even money, a chase would cost you 6300. So, for the past 10 years you would have won 82400 and lost 81900. Solid. If the system did not lose last year, thats awesome, too bad we didn't play it last year. I don't see how I can risk money on a system that is barely profitable over long term. I am going to follow the games and maybe make bets, when a chase goes to game 5. It won't happen very often, but it seems like it will be a high % play.

[johncrud]

i basically used bettorbob's data and reanalyzed with ML instead. so i guess its 2003 to present.

this is not one of my best system being that the ML cost is too high, and RL is just too dangerous sometimes (it easily push the chase to 6 games).. I rather spend 2X money on my over/under 5 game chase system instead. plus, if you use matchbook, it saves you 5% to 10% of your bankroll. let say, if it takes 63 units to chase one, you can end up with only 58 units to 1.

[brooks85]

o shit, i did the math wrong, I kept thinking the Wins was 824, but its 925. So, at 100 series that would 92500 won and 81900 lost. Which is a lot better than the original 500 profit i had. A 1000 a year still does not seem to appetizing but are we sure the system went undefeated the past 2 years? Sorry to bother you again betterbob or if this was already asked, but do you have a breakdown for year by year results?

I also forgot about the -1 line, i might have to switch books. Which U.S. books offer -1 lines?

[do5000]

dont know if pinnacle is ok for US residents, but i use it and its pretty good.
they offer different lines where you can choose ML, -1, -1.5, -2, or -2.5 or for the dogs, +1, +1.5, +2 or +2.5

[coreygman]

dont know if pinnacle is ok for US residents, but i use it and its pretty good.
they offer different lines where you can choose ML, -1, -1.5, -2, or -2.5 or for the dogs, +1, +1.5, +2 or +2.5

I wish Pinnacle would let us USA people in on there book! But we are blocked.

[Slanina]

I have the whitesox at -105. The one time I wait to check the lines. Son of a ... I'll wait till 5 or so and hope it gets better.

[ploben]

RL got pounded and the ML is getting hit hard this late in the day. Hope everyone else got there bet in earlier.

[Slanina]

I'll postpone your mom

[ploben]

I'll postpone your mom

LOL...I didn't get this when I read it until I went to look for the CWS score.

[ploben]

Looking to hit em hard tomorrow with the B bet. Looks like PHI will be the play against the horrible-on-the-road Nats.

[do5000]

got in on PHI, one book at +105 and one at +115.

[ploben]

Confidence seems high with PHI so I wouldn't wait around to drop the bet.

PHI +105 RL (Bookmaker)

[coreygman]

Looks like my bet will be on Philli also per BetJamaica.com

Philadelphia Phillies C Hamels -L R/L = -1½ +110 M/L = -183

[coreygman]

well off to a good start! With a 6-0 lead!