System Integrity?

[coreygman]

+105 @ Bookmaker....very nice to see plus money for a change...but that just means the books think it's less likely to happen.

Is anyone else keeping a spreadsheet or something like that for this system? I will be on vacation and unable to be near any Internet (cruise) from the 16th till the 25th and just want to see what I miss when I get back. I will be cutting the chase early as it gets closer so I am not in the middle of one when I leave.

Hey buddy! I am keeping a spreadsheet, where I just added 2009 onto the excel sheet the other guy made earlier.
Are you keeping one? Have a great cruise, looks like a long one! Where ya going?

[coreygman]

Here is how my spreadsheet looks so far, this is a copy and paste from Excel, so does not look at good

DATE '09 HOME M/L AWAY SCORE RL To Win RISK WIN LOSS
13-AprNYM -105 SDP 5 6 EV $30.00 $30.00 L
14-AprBOS-150OAK56110$66.00$60.00L
15-AprCUBS-215COL25110$132.00$120.00L
16-AprNYY-250Clev210-110$240.00$264.00L
17-AprNYY-215Clev56-105$504.00$530.00L
18-AprBOS-270Bal64-130$1034.00$1344.00W
19-AprNYY-230Clev73-125$30.00$38.00W
20-AprBOS-220Bal121-115$30.00$35.00W
21-AprTOR-240Tex45-110$30.00$33.00L
22-AprNYY-250OAK97-130$48.00$62.00W
23-AprPHI-180MIL16115$35.00$30.00L
24-AprNYM-290WAS43-120$45.00$58.50L
25-AprNYM-185WAS82105$109.00$104.00W
26-AprSDP-200PIT38115$35.00$30.00L
27-AprCWS-205SEAPOSTPONED!110$50.00$45.00POSTPONED!
28-AprPHI-185WAS71110$50.00$45.00W
29-AprMIL-210PIT10105$32.00$30.00L
30-AprNYY-240LAA74-115$45.00$52.00W
01-MayCUBS-275FLA86-130$30.00$39.00W
02-MayNYY-265LAA84-135$30.00$41.00L
03-MayLAD-210SDG73-110$56.00$62.00W
04-MayTAM-235BAL48-115$30.00$35.00L
05-MayTAM-200BAL105$53.00$50.00

Up $160 right now

[eidolon]

I had a chase system at one time. All it got me was gonorrhea and syphilis.

[ploben]

It wouldn't really be a "chaste" system them...

Turks and Cacos and the Bahamas. I am keeping a spreadsheet, probably from the same guy you got yours from, but I will miss about a weeks worth of games. I want to track this season in full because it seems like a great system and I would like to try some different things against all the data to maybe tweek it.

[ploben]

Can't believe how the money is going to BAL. I haven't seen it on my book yet but the TAM line is bottoming out.

[Slanina]

I'm still mad I didn't check the start time last night. I had no clue it was an early game. I assumed it was at 7pm. Wow. Looks like I'll have to just take the loss from yesterday and start with game #1 again. That's a setback of two wins.

[ploben]

Yea I had to double check but I booked it before I left work. It didn't look good but the Rays have some bats and speed.

[ploben]

Looks good tomorrow....Lets.....Go......Mets

[corona]

might as well play the dodgers tomorrow too, if the mets game ends soon enough.

they're hot at home. lots of moneylines last year were over -200 (aka -150 to -199)....so i dont think it really matters that much if its the biggest favorite of the day or simply a large ml.

[do5000]

i cant figure out why the mets line is so high. LAD seems like the most obvious choice.
but the system says highest opening lne and thats NYM for today.
cant imagine anybody else likes it, but its an A bet, so its not too bad.

ps ploben, enjoy your trip! hopefully we wont all be broke by the time you get back.

[ploben]

Hahah...thanks do. If anything this system will allow the drinks to flow freely out on the open waters.

Not only is LAD a good play (but we have to stay the straight and narrow with the system) but the Mets ML is just crazy. Line opened at -240, jumped to -265, all the early action then swung to PHI, and now the mets are back down to -250. Covers.com shows no support the Mets so this might be one of those lines today.....wait and see what happens next.

Plus Park sucks so automatically the NYM RL is high, -120 @ Bookmaker

[coreygman]

Looks like Mets in my book also!


NYM JO SANTANA-L -255 u8½ -105 -1½ -120

Lets go Santana!

[coreygman]

It wouldn't really be a "chaste" system them...

Turks and Cacos and the Bahamas. I am keeping a spreadsheet, probably from the same guy you got yours from, but I will miss about a weeks worth of games. I want to track this season in full because it seems like a great system and I would like to try some different things against all the data to maybe tweek it.

I am sure you will have a blast! You going on Carnival? Just msg me when you get back, and I can get you all the updated games from when you were gone.

[ploben]

I am sure you will have a blast! You going on Carnival? Just msg me when you get back, and I can get you all the updated games from when you were gone.

Yeah, Carnival leaving out of NY. Been lookign forward to it since we booked in Jan.

[coreygman]

Yeah, Carnival leaving out of NY. Been lookign forward to it since we booked in Jan.

I used them for a cruise once, out of Miami. We were on the boat Fascination. Good times!

[do5000]

mets line seems to be pulling back a bit, mine went from -130 to -125.
i'll wait till later on to pull the trigger.

[ploben]

I can't see how this line doesn't fall later today. No backing of the NYM

[Slanina]

I booked mine at 1pm at -120. And it still is -120 at my book.

[coreygman]

Still at -120 in mine also

[owll52]

Ploben

They have internet service on the ship, don't know the cost but it is available. Remember SPF 30

[Slanina]

So is anyone considering going against the rules and going with the dodgers as a game #2 for the chase.

[jellobiafra]

You guys are doing a good job keeping this thread rolling. Looks like the system is proving to be successful so far. I'm considering jumping back on.

A thought just occurred to me though. I see that the overall W/L record for these plays is still below 50%, which is what I think it was at when I left it. What do you guys think about the profitability of running an alternate system - not a chase - that would involve betting the +1.5 line on the biggest underdog of the day in conjunction to this play . In other words, betting both sides of the same game but only chasing on the favorite like you are doing now. If it were averaging (+) odds this might actually be worth testing. It'd be small profit, but would help ease the pain of the losses and over the long run be marginally profitable if these win percentages hold up. Just a thought.

[jellobiafra]

Maybe not in conjunction. I haven't really thought this out. I just see the win percentages and like I said, if these plays are basically breaking even you might be better off just flipping the system without the chase. I haven't really thought it out.

[Slanina]

Maybe not in conjunction. I haven't really thought this out. I just see the win percentages and like I said, if these plays are basically breaking even you might be better off just flipping the system without the chase. I haven't really thought it out.

If I remember correctly, last year it went 65-56 for the favorites. So chasing the dog with the runline wasn't very profitable.

[floridagolfer]

I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but in the last week and a half or so, haven't we on the RL lost a 2-hit shutout AND a 3-hit shutout? Ouch.

[jellobiafra]

I still feel like there's something there. It's like a sneeze that I can't get out. If you look at them as two completely independent bets, and you assume that the chase is going to cash every time by 6 games.... Yes, you are losing every time you are winning, but you are winning every game. And when the chase hit's it's really only paying for the wager and profit owed from the first game that lost...which you cashed on the other side. I guess it would just become a matter of you paying juice because you'll be spinning wheels on plays where the favorite wins the first game out. Oh well, it seemed like I might be on to something. Guess not. Never mind!

[ploben]

Tough loss tonight and an even tougher board tomorrow. Both the Red Sox and Cards opened at -165. No huge fav tomorrow so we should get + money.

We have been on a win,loss,win,loss patern so I like our chances tomorrow.

[Slanina]

Tough loss tonight and an even tougher board tomorrow. Both the Red Sox and Cards opened at -165. No huge fav tomorrow so we should get + money.

We have been on a win,loss,win,loss patern so I like our chances tomorrow.

Where the heck did you get lines so early? Wasn't even 11pm when you posted that. Covers.com still has todays action or do you go by your own book? Which is ...

[Slanina]

Bodog just now posted their moneylines for tomorrow. It looks like it'll be the cardinals. And I'm pretty excited about this. How can you not feel confident with Pujols on your side. And on top of that he is lights out right now. They have it at -210 while the 2nd closest is at -168, which are the dodgers.

I had to check his numbers to be exact. In the past week he is batting .500 with 4 homers.

[ploben]

Here's where I got opening lines. Later in the night they post all the next day's game's lines:
covers.com/sports/mlb/baseball-matchups.aspx

Sox are banged up anyway so STL isn't a bad pick. Plus money today

[do5000]

BOS opened at -162 and STL at -165.

if you go to the link ploben posted it shows all the days games and odds. if you clikc on each individual matchup sometimes it shows opening lines on the page for that specific game, even if its not on scoreboard yet.

either way, its STL today.


jello, did you mean playing dog RL and fav ML?

[johncrud]

Here is how my spreadsheet looks so far, this is a copy and paste from Excel, so does not look at good

DATE '09 HOME M/L AWAY SCORE RL To Win RISK WIN LOSS
13-AprNYM -105 SDP 5 6 EV $30.00 $30.00 L
14-AprBOS-150OAK56110$66.00$60.00L
15-AprCUBS-215COL25110$132.00$120.00L
16-AprNYY-250Clev210-110$240.00$264.00L
17-AprNYY-215Clev56-105$504.00$530.00L
18-AprBOS-270Bal64-130$1034.00$1344.00W
19-AprNYY-230Clev73-125$30.00$38.00W
20-AprBOS-220Bal121-115$30.00$35.00W
21-AprTOR-240Tex45-110$30.00$33.00L
22-AprNYY-250OAK97-130$48.00$62.00W
23-AprPHI-180MIL16115$35.00$30.00L
24-AprNYM-290WAS43-120$45.00$58.50L
25-AprNYM-185WAS82105$109.00$104.00W
26-AprSDP-200PIT38115$35.00$30.00L
27-AprCWS-205SEAPOSTPONED!110$50.00$45.00POSTPONED!
28-AprPHI-185WAS71110$50.00$45.00W
29-AprMIL-210PIT10105$32.00$30.00L
30-AprNYY-240LAA74-115$45.00$52.00W
01-MayCUBS-275FLA86-130$30.00$39.00W
02-MayNYY-265LAA84-135$30.00$41.00L
03-MayLAD-210SDG73-110$56.00$62.00W
04-MayTAM-235BAL48-115$30.00$35.00L
05-MayTAM-200BAL105$53.00$50.00

Up $160 right now

nice nice... A loss will be devastating because it will take half of a season to cover the losses. to be exact, it takes 31 wins assuming the RL is even money.

[ploben]

STL had the better RL anyway (closer to - money) so they are the clear fav today. No worries

[coreygman]

Jello, I get what you are saying, and if we all bet on the biggest underdog this year, we would have made more money. But most of the time they are not always + either ya know. Its hit or miss just like we have now, sometimes its + but most of the time its -.

Looks like the Cards for me in my book today.


STL WELLEMEYER-R -200 u9½ -120 -1½ +105

[ploben]

Booked it.

STL +105 RL.

Let's cash.