Is Pelfrey done?
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It depends on a few factors but I was a little surprised to see the NYM @ -200 ML and EV for the RL. Take a look at the line for BOS tonight...-165 ML and EV RL. The Sox are obviously an offensive threat so they respect the multi-run win for the sox. As it is now, the Mets just left bases loaded in the 6th, so a multi-run win was correctly capped by Vegas...if they even win this game SU.Comment -
Damn Machine...KC to win it all? Best of luck man but damn...throwing money away. How bout you give me the 100 and ill let you kick me in the balls...you'll enjoy it more
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Reminds of comments we might have heard about Tampa last April. The Royals have pitching. Pitching makes anything possible.Comment -
Boogity boogity boogity boys, let's go chasin'Comment -
Looks like your play for tomorrow is going to be Boston or St LouisComment -
As a die hard Red Sox fan I hope to God it's not BOS tomorrow because they have looked hooooooooorible. Their next win might be only by 1 run.Comment -
Looks like Texas to me. (-145 ML at Pinnacle)
Red Sox, Cardinals, Royals and Braves are all a very close second on the ML. (around -138 to -143)
You could choose Texas based on the criteria that the O/U is set at a high number which gives a lesser likelihood of having a close game.Comment -
i got royals at - 150Comment -
looks like braves ml will be the highest at -155. strange thing is boston is at -150 with a runline of +105...braves runline is +140. volstad vs vazquez to me is a tossup and i am a braves fan...wont be surprised to see florida taken this one so i might lean towards bostonComment -
Bookmaker: BOS and ATL ML @ -153. BOS RL @ +105 and ATL RL @ +140. I do not like how BOS has been playing as of late and neither do they so are they due for a breakout game?
What's everything think?Comment -
According to covers.com STL actually opened at the highest @ -160 above everyone else. KC was second @ -155 and then BOS @ -150.Comment -
The Cardinals opened yesterday as the slightly biggest favorite on BetJam. For a time it was the Royals and Rangers. Now it's the Braves followed ever so closely by the Red Sox.
I don't really like any of those teams on the R/L. I really don't like the Braves and Red Sox. I don't even think the Braves win their game and the Red Sox can't score to save their life right now.
I've thought it over and decided to go my own way on this thing from now on fellas. I don't think it's that important that you pick the biggest ML favorite each night, as long as you pick a heavy favorite. I've come to the conclusion that it's more important to me to have the option of hedging this bet with a M/L wager. So I am going to be actually involving some handicapping into this. I'm going to pick the team out of the top few favorites that I think has a good shot at scoring some runs and also offers a good price on the R/L. For today I've chosen to back the Brewers. They are facing Bronson Arroyo who I believe still has some health question marks. He gave up 8 hits and 6ER vs. the Mets last time out. I think the Brewers could touch him up. MIL is pitching Parra - a LH and the Reds are not as strong vs LH pitching. Best of all this wager offers +155 odds, so there's an easy hedge involved.
I'm not going to be posting my picks here because the last thing anybody should do is tail me. I posted this one just to give you an idea of my thought process on this decision. I think the Cardinals might be a strong play but they are only +115 R/L. I also think the Rangers could be a good move, but the way Baltimore is hitting right now I didn't want to bet against them.
I'll still be popping in here from time to time to see how things are coming along. You guys know how the picks are to be made if you are playing these strictly by the book. You don't need someone to post them evey day for you. You are all capable of making your own decisions on these. You have the foundation of this system. You understand the principle behind it. Use it as you see fit. Go forth and prosper.
Best of luck to everyone.Comment -
I agree with your views on the Sox and Braves. I feel the BOS line is extreamly inflated due to their capability and how they have recently performed. ATL's recent performance against a horrible WAS team is a poor indicator on this team's capacity. Last time Vazquez pitched, against PHI...well...you know.
Anyone else? Time to weigh in.Comment -
Just checked my book, It has the redsox as the favorite. For now I am going to stick with how the system is set, and chose the biggest favorite. Thats they way screamin had it figured out, so might as well give it a try.
So how do my lines on my book compare to yours? I use 2betez.
Team Pitcher M Line Total Run Line
Apr 14 919 BOS D MATSUZAK-R -155 o8-115 -1½+110
Here are what some others show for me right now
9:40 PM 905 STL CARPENTER -R -140 o9-105 -1½+115
8:10 PM 918 KAN K DAVIES -R -150 u9-105 -1½+140
7:10 PM 902 ATL J VAZQUEZ -R -140 u9EV -1½+150
8:05 PM 914 TEX B MCCARTHY-R -145 u11EV -1½+130
8:05 PM 904 MIL M PARRA -L -135 u9-105 -1½+155Comment -
Atl are highest ML @ Betjam
902Atlanta Braves
J Vazquez -R -1½ +140 -148 Action
-148 Listed PitchersComment -
covers.com/sports/mlb/baseball-matchups.aspx
Each matchup will show different books' lines.Comment -
Some companies own multiple books and the lines are the same. Not sure who owns your book or if it is standalone.
I think I am riding with STL today. I feel it's the best value for the RL.Comment -
So I got my bet in, on the Red Sox....
Chase Day 2 (starting bet $30.00, but lost yesterday so now bet $60.00 to get my $30.00 back an win for the day)
MLB STRAIGHT BET [919] BOS -1½+110 ( D MATSUZAK-R / D EVELAND -L ) Risk 60.00 / To Win 66.00Comment -
If you're using Excel 97-2000, I think this will work. This is the calculator only. Once you get familiar with the calc. you can reproduce the results yourself. This is simply a handy tool.
Good Luck on your action...Comment -
If you're using Excel 97-2000, I think this will work. This is the calculator only. Once you get familiar with the calc. you can reproduce the results yourself. This is simply a handy tool.
Good Luck on your action...
Screamin,
Thank you sir....it worked perfectly!!!Comment -
Hotlanta -1.5 +140 bookedComment -
GL all...looks to be a spread out day for picks on the system. Hope we all come out the other side in the same boat.
I'd be interested to see what others booked for today's system bet.
cpscincy - ATL
jello - MIL
corey - BOS
ploben - STLComment -
Yeah, this will be a nice little test case. Some of us will win, some will lose, some may push. Whatever happens, a lot of us will be on our own starting tomorrow - either on an A bet, a B bet, a C bet, or off this this train completely. Maybe I'll cut losses if MIL doesn't cover and start all over again with an A bet following this thing just like it's mapped out - biggest M/L favorite at open. I doubt it though. The pull of that M/L hedge option is just too strong for me. I think it'll allow for a lot less risk through an entire season of this.
Regardless of how tonight plays out, this should be interesting. Personally, I hope all these favorites roll and make it easy on us. BOL.Comment -
On Atlanta for the chase.... I also have plays on Texas, Mets (tom), Milwaukee, and Texas to win at least 1 game at home in their current series. A Home Favorite Chase essentially.... so Good luck fellas on the plays today!!! As Jello has stated....play small...last year's results don't warrant this years success!!!Comment -
i'm on ATL tonight, sticking with the system. certainly dont love them to beat FLA, but i'm dying to see if this method would work without any capping, just by the numbers.
GL!Comment -
This new development actually adds a nice little twist, I think. The system has become a little less systematic. There's room for individuality in it. What I'm planning to do is run the system with my own picks, under the assumption that one of my picks will hit before it loses 4 times in a row (the opportunity for pushes being essential in how I want to play it). This allows me to have some say over where I'm placing my money on a daily basis. I actually like it better this way.Comment -
How did we determine the mets?
I thought the system was the favourite on the runline if so it would be boston?
My book has Texas as the moneyline favourite but runline is +125 and atalnata are +130
mmmmmmmmmComment -
IM playing BOSTON REDSOX +115Comment -
That's what Jello is saying...there are going to be twists to the sytem contingent upon what book you use for the lines. I use Pinnacle...however, if you cap the games and you have 3 heavy ML favs and don't want to throw down on the biggest favorite you should still be alright. I don't have the research to validate whether or not you will never lose a game if you do not go with the highest OPENING line by Pinnacle...but with the system I read it was dedicated to using Pinnacle as the OPENING line and then betting the RL with that in a 6 game chase. I like the adjustments in this forum though and love the 3 game or 4 game chase with the -1RL being added. It's less risk overall and should win with a higher frequency. Again though....remember... it's a CHASE...and a CHASE is ALWAYS RISKY regardless of past results. Wager small!! I am afraid that is this system has 4 losses in a row which it very well may...that there will be a ton of negative posts...despite the CAUTION TAPE being put up right now!!
BEST OF LUCK to ALL
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Well, that's another reason I like the individuality we are finding possible in this. If you choose to play this as a system chase, and you choose the picks to play each day, then you only have yourself to blame if it fails. The flip side of that is you can give yourself a little bit of credit if it succeeds. You're not just blindly following picks posted on a message board, voiding yourself of all responsibility. You actually have some control here if you want it. I think that makes this "system" not only potentially less risky, but infinitely more fun.Comment
