CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[cocknocker]

therber

You had it exactly right on example A) with the highest wager being $600.00 on the triple down. Answer to your second question just games that are nationally televised or playoff games.

And I bet ALL games 1st inning all the way through the World Series.

[therber2]

Thanks for the clarification on "doubling" CK. I am still confused though. Are you saying you only double on nationally televised games, but play bet A for every game of the day? Is this correct?

One other thing while we're on the subject of nationally televised games...take a gander:

SPORTSWATCH
MLB Network bets depth, lore will appeal to fans
New baseball cable channel supplements local team coverage

By David B. Wilkerson, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:41 p.m. EDT April 2, 2009Comments: 4
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Having been accused over the years of not understanding its core fan base well enough, Major League Baseball is hoping that its new cable network will prove otherwise.
The recently launched MLB Network is ready for its first baseball season and its main bet is that coverage of your local team won't be enough to satisfy your craving for the sport. The channel is available in more than 50 million homes across the U.S........

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/New-MLB-Network-bets-depth/story.aspx?guid={744EE3A4-D57A-4560-8C71-3FD295A4B014}&dist=hplatest

[netinfo]

Pretty cool system!

I have a question about a possible filter.

I am making an assumption that on games where the aces are pitching (1st or 2nd on the pitching rotation), then these games will result in slightly more losing bets (no score in first inning) than winning bets (score in first inning) for us.

A second assumption is that on games where the least effective starters (4th or 5th on the pitching rotation) are pitching, then these games will result in much more winning bets than losing bets for us.

And the third assumption is that on games where the 3rd starter is pitching, then the results will be even between winning and loosing bets, or more slightly winning bets than loosing bets.

The above are just assumptions, and would love for them to be proved or disproved.

My question is in regards to a possible filter:

Would it increase our profit margin (winning bets - losing bets) if the following strategies are used?
- Skip those games where the first two starters are pitching.
- Bet those games where the last three starters are pitching.

I'm new to baseball betting, so another related question is this:

Would the odds be reflected differently for games where the aces are pitching versus those on the middle and bottom of the rotation? If so, are they so different, that they will significantly cancel out any benefit that can be achieved with the above filter?

Thanks for this thread. My above questions are addressed to anyone who would like to answer.

netinfo

[ICE-BLOOD]

CK, nice thread

i've f*cked around with run scored in 1st inning before

the line for this is pretty much set according to the game total

a game total of 9 will give a line of about yes -115 and no run -115

higher game totals mean pay more juice on a run scored in 1st inning
example-texas rangers games

lower game totals will give a + return for a run scored in 1st inning
example- 2 good starters

also, i think betus lowered their juice on this after a few months into last season to -110, making their site a good place to play this

shopping for the best line will help in the long run, the lines do vary and move at some books, some middle oppurtunities show up too...keeping in mind that there are limits

anyway, good luck, this prop is alot of fun and profitable too

[JayRow]

Okay. I'm going to take $1,000 in May... betting $25 a game.

CK- Simplified, Can you tell me if i'm missing anything?
1. Bet every game 1st inning, over
2. Chase nationally televised games.

That's it, right?

[JayRow]

By the way guys... I'm currently doing an analysis of a filter for Jeff Sagarin Pitchers... results will be up shortly.

[whatisit]

What site are you guys going to be using for the live in game betting? I really don't feel comfortable with BetUS at all...does TheGreek have this option?

[Dexter]

question - are these prop bets usually all up the night before on betus?

sounds like thats the best book for this.

[therber2]

Yeah I'm at greek, betus, and bookmaker. Greek is the only one I see that is doing a first inning prop, but it is for April 5th, and the line isn't out. I'm assuming these prop bets only pop up for the regular season. How does it work CK?

[bsebal7]

Good Question!!

Okay. I'm going to take $1,000 in May... betting $25 a game.

CK- Simplified, Can you tell me if i'm missing anything?
1. Bet every game 1st inning, over
2. Chase nationally televised games.

That's it, right?

CK-

I was curious on the same page as JayRow on that line of thought....when May rolls around.....are you doing both the 1st inning and chasing on the televised games or just the 1st innings?

Also, in terms of profitability....I saw that in the playoffs and WS there is a ton of money to be made on the 3 inning chase...but what about during the course of the regular season in doing this on televised games? Do you utilize a particular website to view the specific games that will be "Nationally" televised...or just stick with ESPN/FOX/WGN etc.?

This system seems to be unreal...and I appreciate your posts and time and look forward to following this system all year long. I finally may have found a way to pay off the damn student loans that have haunted me for years

[Mr.Bushido]

each pitcher's record

C.Lee

4 1-4
5 4-1
6 3-2
7 3-3
8 2-3
9 3-2

1st inning Scores　16
1st inning NO Scores　15

R.Halladay

4 2-4
5 3-3
6 2-4
7 0-5
8 5-1
9 4-1

1st inning Scores　16
1st inning NO Scores　18

D.Matsuzaka

3,4 2-4
5 3-2
6 1-1
7 3-2
8 3-3
9 4-1
P 2-1

1st inning Scores　18
1st inning NO Scores　14

J.santana

3,4 2-4
5 2-3
6 2-4
7 1-4
8 3-3
9 4-2

1st inning Scores　14
1st inning NO Scores　20

T. Lincecum

4 2-4
5 2-3
6 1-5
7 3-2
8 2-4
9 3-3

1st inning Scores　13
1st inning NO Scores　21

J. Peavy

3,4 3-3
5 2-1
6 3-1
7 2-3
8 1-5
9 1-2

1st inning Scores　12
1st inning NO Scores　15

[JayRow]

Maybe we Could tie in the filter with the "hitters park rankings" listed earlier in this thread. maybe no-plays on the bottom three+ jeff sagarin top 20 pitcher starting? thoughts?

[MaddCapper25]

2004 Season:

If you played just the 1st Inning Score Prop on every single game from April to October of 2004 (and not live betting chasing for nationally televised games), these would be the results (according to www.erikberg.com)

APR - 179 wins, 151 losses = +28
MAY - 208 wins, 203 losses = +5
JUN - 203 wins, 195 losses = +8
JUL - 203 wins, 205 losses = -2
AUG - 228 wins, 190 losses = +38
SEP - 212 wins, 202 losses = +10
OCT - 42 wins, 38 losses = +4
TOTAL = +91

If you wagered 1/40th of your bankroll on every game, your percentage gain at the end of the season is 227.5%. So if you started with 1,000 and bet 25 on each game, you would end up with 3,275 (assuming of course that the average line is +100).

[joanapoker]

Okay. I'm going to take $1,000 in May... betting $25 a game.

CK- Simplified, Can you tell me if i'm missing anything?
1. Bet every game 1st inning, over
2. Chase nationally televised games.

That's it, right?

Also have my doubts just like JayRow!

As most europeans baseball is like chinese to me, so I couldn't understand everything explaind in the CK Grand Slam Baseball System.

Should I bet every single game each day and only chase the televised ones? If yes, how can I know wich ones are nationally televised in the US? And betting with a $4K bankroll u bet $200 in every game?? I'm sure I making confusing with a lots of things.........

If you could help me a little more........

thx CK (and all others who can help)

[peterpan19]

well so for the first game of the season its -105 at the greek right now...

joanapokers

I think you start to bet 1/40 of your bankroll, in august double it ... national games are probably all the games on espn on wednesday and the games on fox saturdays (plus wgn, tbs and espn2... I would say all the games betus offers live betting...)

or even better I think we will post here on which games we do live betting...

GL

[Killer Chihuahua]

No problem, trumpdown. In the 96 wins the cash came before the 3rd inning. Some in the 1st and some in the 2nd and some on the 3rd. In the 20 losses the third inning came and went without a run being scored. In those 96 wins you negated the loss of the previous innings by surpassing what you put up on those prior innings, much like the JM system when an A bet looses and either the B or the C bet cashes the ticket.

And let's be generous with the 20 number as I said roughly, and that means just that... "rough". To say that doubling up consitutes a loss is to say that the JM system for wagering on NBA doesn't work. Anyone who says that the JM system doesn't work is a person who obviously has not tried the system with real money, and therefore would not be qualified to speak on it's effectiveness. The JM system works and so does this one.

If the system doesn't seem like it will work for you, you are more than welcome to sit on the sideline and then come back and see what those who actually used it will say when the season is over. I think that that woud be enough proof for you for next year.

Im confused here! I get the 1st inning bet and agree that 100+ wins in a season is a nice profit at 200$ a bet...even better at 300$ a bet as long as it is even money.
The part Im confused on is the live betting.... If you win in the first 3 innings 96 times with a run scored, negate the 1st and 2nd inning loss and collect on the third inning win, you would have a total of 19,200$ (96 x 200 profit from bet). Now on the "roughly" 20 loses, you wager 200$ first inning, 400$ second inning, and 600$ third inning. All three innings lost for a total of -1,200$ for that game( 200 + 400 + 600 = 1200$ ) If you lost 1200$ on 20 games, that equals 24,000$ ( 1200$ x 20games = 24,000$). This would give you a negative balance of 4800$ ( +19,200 - 24,000 = -4800$ ).

Is this correct or am I missing something? and even if you are betting 200, 400, 600 per inning and won the bet in the third inning, you are not profiting in the third inning cuz that only covers the first two bets.

Only trying to learn and and follow along so please dont take this as Negativity....thanks in advance

[Cheme82]

Ok guys, I got spreadsheets for 2006, 2007, and 2008 for anyone interested. Thanks to all the people that helped put those together. All 3 years show a profit of at least +150 units, assuming even money on the bets you would end up with at least 20k at the end of the season starting with 4k and doing 100 a game all season long.

My spreadsheet does not have chasing till the 3rd, inning but it does have another column where you calculate 1/40th of your bankroll every day and place all wagers for that amount. That change in strategy maximizes profits in an exponential way (with all years finishing over 100k and 2007 at over 600k).

Like I said before, those numbers might be unrealistic since you have limits on the amount you can bet, but it could generate more profit if you share your starting bankroll into different accounts.

All this was assuming even odds on the bet, but even at -110 you could still generate a decent profit. I guess we'll have to wait and see what lines we can get once the season starts.

[joanapoker]

I'm still a little lost in all this.....maybe when the season starts and a few examples end up here......

[cocknocker]

Chihuahua,

it rarely gets to the 3rd inning when you do live betting. But with live betting I usually will start with $100, then go $300, then go $600 in the thiird if it diesn't hit. I guess that I didn't fully answer the guy's question. My bad. But there are much less live batting games than straight games, and most of the time they are marquee type games.

[cocknocker]

All that i know is if you let curiousity get the better of you, you may lose out on something great. What other sytem do you know of in baseball that will get you 150 more wins than losses? The proof is there if you do your homework. And if you don't like the live betting aspect of it, then by all means just get your 150 wins. I will continue doing the live betting because i already know what it will do in terms of wins.

[MaddCapper25]

Is everyone waiting until May or am I the only one starting tomorrow? I've only seen April results for 2004 and 2007, but there were both pretty good at +28 and +34 respectively. My starting bankroll is 1000 and I'll be wagering 25 a game.

[bailey]

My only concern is that I think we may be laying odds(105-120) on most of these plays.Tomorrows game with #1 starters going for both teams(you would expect + odds) we are laying -105 at the Greek.Ck do you have details of last years plays with the odds you had the games at?

[cocknocker]

No I don't but you're way off base with your thoughts. I'd say that 75% of these plays will be made with positive or + money, and not negative vigorish as you indicate. As the author I do know that it is rare to have a line that is really high for a firdst inning run to score, and when there is one, it almost always hits. I have seen them range from +170 to -160 on certain occasions (most notably at Wrigley Field when the wind os blowing out to center) Your worries are not founded.

And BTW, I am not starting until the 1st week of May, not tomorrow. You are on your own doing them from the beginning of the season and not playing the system correctly. Give the hitters time to catch up with the pitching.

[cocknocker]

So anyone who wishes to play my system please take note of the following:

Do not play these types of plays before the 1st week of May. The results will be disasterous, and then you will want to lay blame on me instead of yourself for not following instructions. This warning is to be heeded by all. Do not place blame on me for your own foolishness.

[whatisit]

1st week of May, excellent still have another month to get the cash proper

[peeiempee]

Question CK. So you bet all 1st inning games for a run to be scored. The same number of units despite a win or a loss right? Are you selective about the pitcher? If so will you be posting your plays?

[mcbain]

CK has already stated he bets every game for the same amount. Pitchers are irrelevant for this system.

[cheesehead004]

Yo CK, sorry if this has been asked but, for how many years have you used this system? And has it been profitable every season?

[bailey]

No I don't but you're way off base with your thoughts. I'd say that 75% of these plays will be made with positive or + money, and not negative vigorish as you indicate. As the author I do know that it is rare to have a line that is really high for a firdst inning run to score, and when there is one, it almost always hits. I have seen them range from +170 to -160 on certain occasions (most notably at Wrigley Field when the wind os blowing out to center) Your worries are not founded.

And BTW, I am not starting until the 1st week of May, not tomorrow. You are on your own doing them from the beginning of the season and not playing the system correctly. Give the hitters time to catch up with the pitching.

CK,I knew you weren't playing these until May.Just used tonights line as an example.Hope we see all plus lines.Will be playing along with you May 1

[joanapoker]

Chihuahua,

it rarely gets to the 3rd inning when you do live betting. But with live betting I usually will start with $100, then go $300, then go $600 in the thiird if it diesn't hit. I guess that I didn't fully answer the guy's question. My bad. But there are much less live batting games than straight games, and most of the time they are marquee type games.

CK

sry for being a pain in the ass, but you didn't answered my first doubts. If we start with a $4k bankroll and bet every game at $100 (even without the chase live bet system) isn't that dangerous?? some days you have 15 games, thats $1500 beted = 37,5% of the bankroll.....that's a little dangerous, right?

What am I missing???

thx

[MaddCapper25]

So anyone who wishes to play my system please take note of the following:

Do not play these types of plays before the 1st week of May. The results will be disasterous, and then you will want to lay blame on me instead of yourself for not following instructions. This warning is to be heeded by all. Do not place blame on me for your own foolishness.

Not trying to be a d*ck as I think your system is excellent, but why would playing April lead to disaster? Prior research indicates that April has had a positive net, at least in the past five years. It seems to me that if you have another month that ends up with positive results, you'd want to take advantage of it. Surely these hitters have had time to get their bats going in ST and WBC. I'm gonna go ahead and try my luck with April and if it doesn't work out, I promise I won't blame you for my foolishness.

[Bobby518]

How long before the games start are the 1st inning prop bets available?

Another quick P-I-A Question, CK:

How long before the games start are the 1st inning prop bets available?
For example, today's ATL/PHI game begins at 8pm. It's now just after 8am (est), and BETUS shows no action on the game other than the spread/sides and the o/u total.

Is the first inning bet like only available, say, during the hour before the game starts? If so, gotta live with it, but I was hoping to be able to place a day's worth of bets at one time. Like tomorrow (no, not betting tomorrow), games start just about every hour from 1 to 9pm.

I'll deal with it in any event (gotta love wireless internet!)

Thanks

[Jimbo42]

OMG, everyone...CK has been talking about this system for months... He has never once deviated from the script...He has described it the same way every time...I understand the concern, it is YOUR money, but one thing I have learned from watching CK on a daily basis is that he is extremely honest, upright and trustworthy.. Listen to the man... play this exactly as he says..don't get the system twisted around to "your filters" or whatever... begin May 1st...and watch the money roll in...
Your questions are good if you don't quite yet understand the system but stick to the system and it will be all good!
Good Luck to everyone!

[peterpan19]

jimbo

why fix something that ain't broke ? ... no reason to do it... and if 4k into 60k are not enough for you and you want to make 70k out of it... hell shouldnt be 60k be enough ? seriously....

GL guys

[RoagBettor]

Line out for today's game:

YES - RUN SCORED IN FIRST INNING - EVEN
NO - RUN SCORED IN FIRST INNING -130