CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[cocknocker]

suicidekings your talking only about chasing? 1st/2nd/3rd at 1/2/3 units each? I assume that, so for the first innings only, a +100 average, would be far enough with the over shown by the stats for 1st innings >50%

One thing I think CK didnt mention, is if he wager the same amount in all plays (1st innings) no matter what is the line + or -. I mean, you just wager 1 unit risk, not to win 1unit when there is -EV. If your standard wager is, lets say 200 a play, when a line is for instance -115, you play just 200 too right?

Correct. I place flat wagers without adding on any extra to cover vigorish, no matter if the line is +120 or -120. I won't be trying to WIN $300.00, I will be RISKING $300.00. So many guys are putting a new spin on things, and I see in the future that guys will not playing the system with purity.

[suckatmyjob]

man cant wait till this starts thanks for the great info CK

[cocknocker]

Secondly I want to know how all of these opinions on how the system will work (for a season that last from April through late November/early December) are being formulated after what a half a week of baseball? I give the board something spectacular and it is being picked over so much to the point that doubters have surfaced only after two or three days of the season are gone by. While the doubters and researchers are coming up with better ways to use the wheel than the creator, I will be playing them blindly every morning after I pour my coffee as I always have before any of you came into knowledge of this system. I will kick things off May 1st.

[bailey]

CK,I'm not here to bash or give you a hard time but with the way these lines are coming out(granted its only 3 days)are you serious that you will blindly play all of these at -120,-125,-135 and -140 or will you only play the plus lines.I don't have Betus but Greek,5Dimes and Bookmaker have put out many - lines for the first 3 days

[suicidekings]

suicidekings your talking only about chasing? 1st/2nd/3rd at 1/2/3 units each? I assume that, so for the first innings only, a +100 average, would be far enough with the over shown by the stats for 1st innings >50%

One thing I think CK didnt mention, is if he wager the same amount in all plays (1st innings) no matter what is the line + or -. I mean, you just wager 1 unit risk, not to win 1unit when there is -EV. If your standard wager is, lets say 200 a play, when a line is for instance -115, you play just 200 too right?

Recalculating the break-even point for just the first inning, and assuming a 53% success rate, you break even at an average line of -112 (1.89). Today's average at the Greek is -110/1.91 (-106/1.94 at my book). So technically, you're still at the breakeven threshold today, however, because there are so many games (15), the sensitivity of the system is more apparent today.

If you assume the 53%/75%/86% distribution of wins in the 1st/2nd/3rd innings, that translates to approximately 8/11/13 wins, leaving you with two losses for the day. Two losses after the 3rd inning mean a net loss of 6 units each, and while the figures above represent a breakeven over the long term, that doesn't mean you're not going to have losing days. The expected 8/11/13 distribution would leave you with at least a 2 unit loss for the day. A third loss would push you to around an 8 unit loss for the day, which, represents 20% of your bankroll, and leaving your net at around -3u for the season to date.

That's why I was asking about how much these lines fluctuate from day to day, as I have no background data to compare it to. Is it normal to have big negative days like this one on days where there are lots of games and lots of attention on those games?

[suicidekings]

Secondly I want to know how all of these opinions on how the system will work (for a season that last from April through late November/early December) are being formulated after what a half a week of baseball? I give the board something spectacular and it is being picked over so much to the point that doubters have surfaced only after two or three days of the season are gone by. While the doubters and researchers are coming up with better ways to use the wheel than the creator, I will be playing them blindly every morning after I pour my coffee as I always have before any of you came into knowledge of this system. I will kick things off May 1st.

No offense intended CK. I'm following your lead on starting in May (using your criteria), and simply tracking the system in April for my own interest/enjoyment. Thanks again for sharing the system.

[Cassidy]

Key here is, IMO, circunstances. CK circunstances may change the whole of a thing or a result. This system sucess is clearly proven so far, past years stats don't lie. But circunstances this year are different, given that this year, the system is a little more public. Like in the stock market, a rumor, or any movement can unleash a chain reaction, with lots of consecuences.

Well, getting back to the point, what I'm thinking, is about what money volume this kind of wager (1st inning O/U) may achieve for books on both sides? bc if now we all start juicing $200 a play each, all at the same play (over .5), this would be surely a fact of matter for the books to fix the lines, to adjust the market. If our wagers volume in this specific prop bet are far higher than the rest of public on the other side, i see obvious at books reacting pretty quickly.

I repeat, not against the system, just analyzing all possible angles, given the fact that maybe this season, circunstances may change things. Hope not.

[TheCommish]

Thanks for posting your system CK.

Regardless of what people are picking apart, you've proven it to work for you, and have been decent enough to share it with the rest of us.

I'll be playing it as you've designed (with the exception of starting early - today was day 1 for me).

BoL to all, and thanks again CK.



Cheers,
The Commish

[cocknocker]

So do you guys think that because we are wagering on it that the runs will suddenly stop being scored in the 1st inning? Synergy just is what it is. Three days and all of this. Just play the damn things. No one in your lives has given you 150 wins for free per year in any sport in this thing of ours. Frankly it is just funny. Every one has all of this +- EV talk and statistical reasoning why they should be played only in certain pitching matchups, etc.

Look it is what it is. Play the damn things and count your money. Then let's have this talk after the season when your pockets are full and you didn't have to do any homework to get it. Then I can buy what everyone is selling right now. Sounds like fear to me.

I understand. It's hard to think that someone could come up with a home-made system like this that has that kind of statistical success annually in a sport that is considered the hardest to handicap.

The People's Champ is always looking out for the common man. I didn't give an insider secret away for the books. I gave it to the people who are struggling in this recession and need some steady income. It's what I do. Whether you like me or not, I know how to generate money without having to pick up a shovel or a suit, and I am also open to sharing it with my brothers.

CK Grand Slam Baseball System

"Just play the damn things"

[jellobiafra]

CK, I don't doubt at all the success you've had with this. I'm just afraid that with the increased attention this bet will be getting at the books, they will start to adjust the lines to get this prop back in the houses favor on a macro-scale.

[The_Kid]

The decision is solely up to each individual. If you guys are really doubting this system, don't play it.

[Panekkkk]

Guys,

Beware the live betting:

As cheme82 pointed out: If you were to chase every single game $200, $400, $800 you would lose 101 units. And you need to chase 200 400 800 if you want to make a 1 unit profit on third inning wins ($800 spent - [$200+$400] = $200).

2008
Total games: 2,043
First 3 innings when run/s scored: 1,775
First 3 innings with no run/s scored: 268
Differential: -101 [1,775-(7*268)]

In order for chasing to be profitable you need to hit better than 7 wins to 1 loss ratio (1 loss = 7 units [200+400+800] if your unit is $200).

Chasing only nationally televised games assumes that they achieve better than a 7 to 1 ratio (the season average is 6.6).

I went back over FOX's 2008 schedule. Live chasing of Saturday night FOX games worked out to a profit of +2 or +9 (some discrepancies with what was televised). It is possible if you don't play every game to only hit winners, but that's a risk, because you might hit a few losers. Seems like a lot of work for small gains.

Games in bold = win
Games in italics = loss
I didn't count the all star game
Saturday, April 5, 2008
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Saturday, April 12, 2008
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Saturday, April 19, 2008
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Saturday, April 26, 2008
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Detroit Tigers
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Saturday, May 3, 2008
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals
New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Saturday, May 10, 2008
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs

Saturday, May 17, 2008
Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Saturday, May 24, 2008
New York Mets at Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Chicago White Sox

Saturday, May 31, 2008
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

Saturday, June 7, 2008
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

Saturday, June 14, 2008
Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

Saturday, June 21, 2008
St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers

Saturday, June 28, 2008
New York Yankees at New York Mets
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

Saturday, July 5, 2008
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Saturday, July 12, 2008
Colorado Rockies at New York Mets
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers

Tuesday, July 15, 2008
79th All-Star Game — Bronx, NY — Yankee Stadium (8p.m. ET)


Saturday, July 19, 2008
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals


Saturday, July 26, 2008
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Saturday, August 2, 2008
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at New York Yankees
Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves

Saturday, August 9, 2008
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks

Saturday, August 16, 2008
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Cleveland Indians
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins

Saturday, August 23, 2008
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Saturday, August 30, 2008
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Saturday, September 6, 2008
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (POSTPONED)
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Saturday, September 13, 2008
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (2 games b2b, 1 had scoring in the first 3 innings and 1 did not. I know for a fact that the one with scoring was televised but I'm not sure if the second one was as well)
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

WINS/LOSSES
58-8*7 = +2 (assuming FOX televised both the first and the second of the b2b series)
58 – 7*7 = +9 (assuming FOX only televised the first of the b2b series which is confirmed)

[trinitiy]

So do you guys think that because we are wagering on it that the runs will suddenly stop being scored in the 1st inning? Synergy just is what it is. Three days and all of this. Just play the damn things. No one in your lives has given you 150 wins for free per year in any sport in this thing of ours. Frankly it is just funny. Every one has all of this +- EV talk and statistical reasoning why they should be played only in certain pitching matchups, etc.

Look it is what it is. Play the damn things and count your money. Then let's have this talk after the season when your pockets are full and you didn't have to do any homework to get it. Then I can buy what everyone is selling right now. Sounds like fear to me.

I understand. It's hard to think that someone could come up with a home-made system like this that has that kind of statistical success annually in a sport that is considered the hardest to handicap.

The People's Champ is always looking out for the common man. I didn't give an insider secret away for the books. I gave it to the people who are struggling in this recession and need some steady income. It's what I do. Whether you like me or not, I know how to generate money without having to pick up a shovel or a suit, and I am also open to sharing it with my brothers.

CK Grand Slam Baseball System

"Just play the damn things"

CK is right, for evrything in life there has always been fear. With the way the world is today we have to be more positive as a group and believe this system will work. Money is becoming super tight and nobody wants to give it up just to lose it. Again please do not risk what you can not afford. WE have to stop thinking what if this is wrong and start thinking what if this is RIGHT. All the info researchers are doing a terrific job giving us the heads up on this system. Good info or not , it is just info until we play the game in real time over the season to see it unfold. I just wanted thank CK again for trying to help the people out. Even if the system fails ( prob NOT ), no one can see into the future but CK was kind enough to help guide the way. Lets do this ****ing thing.

[killawatt]

So do you guys think that because we are wagering on it that the runs will suddenly stop being scored in the 1st inning? Synergy just is what it is. Three days and all of this. Just play the damn things. No one in your lives has given you 150 wins for free per year in any sport in this thing of ours. Frankly it is just funny. Every one has all of this +- EV talk and statistical reasoning why they should be played only in certain pitching matchups, etc.

Look it is what it is. Play the damn things and count your money. Then let's have this talk after the season when your pockets are full and you didn't have to do any homework to get it. Then I can buy what everyone is selling right now. Sounds like fear to me.

I understand. It's hard to think that someone could come up with a home-made system like this that has that kind of statistical success annually in a sport that is considered the hardest to handicap.

The People's Champ is always looking out for the common man. I didn't give an insider secret away for the books. I gave it to the people who are struggling in this recession and need some steady income. It's what I do. Whether you like me or not, I know how to generate money without having to pick up a shovel or a suit, and I am also open to sharing it with my brothers.

CK Grand Slam Baseball System

"Just play the damn things"

Seriously guys... why don't you just listen to what the master CK has to say about it.

While we're on the subject, I have another system that's based on what CK has been telling us. Every day, find the biggest favorite, and bet it. In July, you should double your bet because as the weather warms up, the dogs can't handle the hot weather and favorites clean up. I ran this system last year, and my record was 97-65. Run it with your wife/SO and you are guaranteed 64 more wins than losses (32 each).

[Vreston]

CK do you think you could have a look at my post earlier #256 on page 8 and give me your opinion?

Thanks

[Panekkkk]

Kill the hype. Delete the thread? lol

[Bobby518]

Kill the hype. Delete the thread.

[suckatmyjob]

wow havent been on that much and man people here need to just stfu if it works great use it to your advantage everyone keeps forgetting we are here to make money from bookies so if you dont anything good to say then STFU --- all i care about is making money and if you cant afford to lose 4k for any sports then why the f are you betting??? i mean really get the f out of here go somewhere else to make money b/c this is where the big boys play and come on it's only 4k

anyway this is my first year in MLB so going to give CK a shot and JM and let's see what happens

I was on a few of CK's SP plays and really it took alot out of thinking and made the bets easy so take care and that's my 2 cents for now

and for all those other that can't risk 2k or 4k go somewhere else to make money --- this is the adult forum --- kiddies should be at chucky cheese

[cocknocker]

Kill the hype. Delete the thread

[cocknocker]

CK do you think you could have a look at my post earlier #256 on page 8 and give me your opinion?

Thanks

Uh I would make a lot query into several books until i find one that offers this prop wager. Thre are a ton of them that do. I would adjust your plays to 1/40th of your overall bankroll to start off.


FYI, I played all of them today just for shits and giggles. There were too many games today for me not to do it!

[suckatmyjob]

I did too but very very very minimal however it seems NL is at better win rate then AL

I think current record for last 3 days is 13 W - 12 L

NL 9 - 5
AL 4 - 7

today NL is 3 - 0

[therber2]

Uh I would make a lot query into several books until i find one that offers this prop wager. Thre are a ton of them that do. I would adjust your plays to 1/40th of your overall bankroll to start off.


FYI, I played all of them today just for shits and giggles. There were too many games today for me not to do it!

So you are ignoring the fact that the lines are not in the favor of the system, and you are starting before 1 week into May?

CK, we don't want to bash this system at all, but simple calculations show that if the average lines are as they are now, you are going to end up with a negative bank account. Why are you starting now?

[spongerat]

Have you guys noticed how many views this thread has? I just don't think this is going to last. When they notice 5,000 more people playing this prop bet across the board every day they are going to adjust the lines. Looks like the Greek is already on to us.

'

yep i warned everyone in post 226. it sucks that so many people know about it but it was bound to happen. I still have a couple books that I can get great lines at until they figure me out, but I will NOT be sharing them for the reason here, sorry

[DuffMan]

delete this thread

[cocknocker]

So you are ignoring the fact that the lines are not in the favor of the system, and you are starting before 1 week into May?

CK, we don't want to bash this system at all, but simple calculations show that if the average lines are as they are now, you are going to end up with a negative bank account. Why are you starting now?

A one day thing. There were too many games today for me to ignore this opportunity

[cocknocker]

I'm with DuffMan, although I am not too fond that you have the nerve to come to my thread of all places after you ran to the mods and got the People's Champ thrown out at our former home. Duffield PM me. You and I have something to talk about.



Delete this thread, please!

[therber2]

I'm with DuffMan, although I am not too fond that you have the nerve to come to my thread of all places after you ran to the mods and got the People's Champ thrown out at our former home. Duffield PM me. You and I have something to talk about.



Delete this thread, please!

I vote yes to that!
(Deleting the thread) Mods: its CK's. Should be his decision.

[therber2]

A one day thing. There were too many games today for me to ignore this opportunity

CK, sorry for the double post. I'm just wondering: what is the logical reasoning for starting in May?

Also take a look at me and Cheme's spreads in the sticky. Do you notice the drop midseason? I would assume is the pitchers getting aclimated to the batters' styles. Same goes for starting one month in, vis versa; yay? nay?

[Dexter]

wow havent been on that much and man people here need to just stfu if it works great use it to your advantage everyone keeps forgetting we are here to make money from bookies so if you dont anything good to say then STFU --- all i care about is making money and if you cant afford to lose 4k for any sports then why the f are you betting??? i mean really get the f out of here go somewhere else to make money b/c this is where the big boys play and come on it's only 4k

anyway this is my first year in MLB so going to give CK a shot and JM and let's see what happens

I was on a few of CK's SP plays and really it took alot out of thinking and made the bets easy so take care and that's my 2 cents for now

and for all those other that can't risk 2k or 4k go somewhere else to make money --- this is the adult forum --- kiddies should be at chucky cheese

bro - why are you telling someone they need thousands of dollars to play the system? you can have $100 and play them at $2

dont take this the wrong way suck, but its posts like the one you just made that make people hate on cocknocker.

[Dexter]

So you are ignoring the fact that the lines are not in the favor of the system, and you are starting before 1 week into May?

CK, we don't want to bash this system at all, but simple calculations show that if the average lines are as they are now, you are going to end up with a negative bank account. Why are you starting now?

im missing something here - how would this end up in the red?

[Dexter]

def close this thread.

[cocknocker]

Kill the hype destroy the thread.

[cocknocker]

I just requested that this thread be destroyed. No one is to mention this unless it's via PM now. You all know what to do. Those who know know. Those who don't know tell a friend. And let's leave it at that. The first rule of the CK Grand Slam Baseball System is that it doesn't exist. The second rule is to refer to rule number 1.

Kill the hype-Destroy the thread.

[trinitiy]

Lets start a PM party!

[mcbain]

I got all I needed from CK's first post and cheme's spreadsheets.

KILL THIS THREAD!

No need to let anyone else see it.