CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[CashMoney]

Panekkk is using 200$ a game, not 100$ like in your example which is the bet amount to bank roll ratio that CK suggested.....he is correct in that a -21 game month would kill your bankroll! just the chance we are all going to take

Again, incorrect. With a $4K bankroll it's $100 a game until August in which you double your bet to $200 a game. WTF????

I stand by my original comment....CK IS THE MAN

[Skelaton4]

I think I will be using Bookmaker for this.

[nonsense48]

HOLA! CK, DEX and the rest of the gang who are too many to name. my baseball bank is fat and i'm ready to learn from my 2 friends about this game of theirs that i know zero about. i can't even name one pro player but i do know most of the team names. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.

[suicidekings]

I found a resource that lists all the nationally broadcast games for the season all in one place if anyone is interested. It shows games from Fox, ESPN, TBS, and the MLB Network.

http://30boxes.com/external/widget?refer=ff&url=webcal%3A%2F%2Ficalx.com%2Fpublic%2Ffurcalchick%2F2009%2520MLB%2520National%2520TV%2520Schedule.ics

[ploben]

Someone said they had the 2006 calculated but I wanted to look at May (the possible make or break month)

May 2006
Total Games: 413
Run in 1st: 227
No run in 1st: 186
Diff: +41

Might be a few off but it was a healthy profit. So May 05 was the only bad may in the past 4 years I guess.

I bring this up because I know someone said they had the past years already calculated and I wad wondering if anyone noticed the split between AL and NL in this system. For some reason, when I ran through May 06 it seemed like a lot more NL games scored in the 1st, which surprised me.

Might be something to look into for the whole season or a month by month breakdown, but I got a feeling the numbers were totaled up by all games and not split by leauge.

Looks tight CK.

[Mr.Bushido]

Will there be a score in the 1 inning

NY Mets (Jo Santana) @ CIN Reds (A Harang) +110　LOSE

CLE Indians (C Lee) @ TEX Rangers (K Millwood) -130 LOSE

COL Rockies (A Cook) @ ARI Diamondbacks (B Webb) +110 WIN

NY Yankees (C Sabathia) @ BAL Orioles (Jeremy Guthrie) even LOSE

WAS Nationals (J Lannan) @ FLA Marlins (R Nolasco) +105 WIN

PIT Pirates (P Maholm) @ STL Cardinals (A Wainwright) +105 LOSE

CHI Cubs (C Zambrano) @ HOU Astros (R Oswalt) +105 WIN

LA Dodgers (H Kuroda) @ SD Padres (J Peavy) +130 WIN

DET Tigers (J Verlander) @ TOR Blue Jays (R Halladay) +110 WIN

SEA Mariners (F Hernandez) @ MIN Twins (F Liriano) +110 LOSE

OAK Athletics (D Braden) @ LA Angels (J.Saunders) even LOSE

These are sample. not system play.

today
5-6 (-0.7unit)

April
6-6 (+0.3unit)

[cocknocker]

Thank you ever so much Mr. Bushido for your efforts. I don't want anyone to make slight of Mr. Bushido's findings as it is a very tedious job to do what he is doing and to keep it up for the balance of the season. At least this way one can get the idea as to why I don't play April with the system. It's only three weeks anyway...

[Karate]

these are my favorite types of bets.
i followed a system last year that was very profitable.
The Base:
no team has gone more than 10 games without them or there opponent scoring in the 1st inning.
on top of this each team had a number, this was the longest number of games they went that year without scoring.
I only played the NL because the AL is so inconsistent.
the team numbers would adjust.
some people played the number as an out of ten games.

so good luck to all im waiting ten games into a teams season to bet on these seriously but at this point i will chase the whole board.

CK i like your strategy and would like to discuss with you, about details between the two strategys.

SO GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!

[suicidekings]

I've built myself an excel spreadsheet that does the bulk of the work for me in tracking this system in action. I know the chase is only intended for the nationally televised games, but for the purposes of tracking the system in April, I'm applying the chase rule to all games and will compare the national TV filter vs no filter after I've built up some data. The sheet is starting with a $1000 bankroll for simplicity, and automatically calculating the following day's wager amount from the updated bankroll (using 1 unit = 2.5% of bankroll for each bet). Prices for future days will all be taken from Bet365.

Day 1 (Chasing all games to the 3rd inning as needed):

Score by the end of the first inning: 5-6 (-0.4u)
Score by the end of the second inning: 7-4 (-4.7u)
Score by the end of the third inning: 10-1 (+1.5u)

Once again, CK, this system of yours is amazing. All the advice / knowledge you've been sharing is greatly appreciated.

[peeiempee]

I was thinking about this system. Does Betus offer live wagering throughout the game? If so can't you just keep on doubling up until a run is scored. There has to be a winner, so can't you keep doubling up until a run is scored? This way you will never have a loss. Or does betus limit the run scored to 3 innings?

[Vreston]

CK your system and effort are truly impressive!

I would love to follow but for the following reasons I can't.

1. I don't have that kind of bankroll for betting to start off (wish I did).

2. I live overseas and it's hard to follow live games. I have to stay up until 3, 4, or 5 in the morning and go to work the next day, kids, etc. (I have an 8 hour time difference ahead of Eastern time)

3. I use an online sportsbook (bwin) and they don't offer some of the bets you suggest. For example I can't bet up to the 5th inning. And others.

4. They also don't offer some of the games of each day. For example I wanted to bet on the Reds-Mets game yesterday and it wasn't available to bet on! That was really frustrating.

5. I can't get live baseball games here even on satellite TV. I just have the internet for information and it's different if you can visually follow teams and players.

I could go on, but I don't want to tire you and the others reading.

I would really appreciate an answer (if you have time bcs I know you're busy) as to how you think I can bet on baseball. I mean will it be enough to follow your daily leans thread since I can't follow your system? Will that be enough to come out of this with a profit?

If you have any suggestions I would really appreciate it!
In the time I've been here I've learned to respect your opinion.

Thanks in advance! And I wish everybody a very profitable baseball season!

(Here I'd like to mention that I also value a lot of the other people's input. I don't want to be ungrateful for all the great stuff I've read in this forum.)

[Mriswith]

I would love to follow but for the following reasons I can't.

I'm roughly in the same situation, so I'll take the liberty and make a few suggestions :

1. I don't have that kind of bankroll for betting to start off (wish I did).

Play w/ a smaller roll - as stated before in this thread, you could go with any roll, just make individual bets not > 1/40 of your roll.

2. I live overseas and it's hard to follow live games. I have to stay up until 3, 4, or 5 in the morning and go to work the next day, kids, etc. (I have an 8 hour time difference ahead of Eastern time)

Just play early games on days you can follow, for other games cut the chasing part ( or leave chasing at all).

3. I use an online sportsbook (bwin) and they don't offer some of the bets you suggest. For example I can't bet up to the 5th inning. And others.
4. They also don't offer some of the games of each day. For example I wanted to bet on the Reds-Mets game yesterday and it wasn't available to bet on! That was really frustrating.

Open an account at a book that suits your needs.

5. I can't get live baseball games here even on satellite TV. I just have the internet for information and it's different if you can visually follow teams and players.

League Pass, Internet streams or as a last fall back live-tickers will help.

I would really appreciate an answer (if you have time bcs I know you're busy) as to how you think I can bet on baseball. I mean will it be enough to follow your daily leans thread since I can't follow your system? Will that be enough to come out of this with a profit?

I wouldn't expect CK or another poster here placing bets that he isn't sure of being +eV.

There's an amazing amount of information available throughout the internet and especially this excellent forum here. I'd advise you to gather all of it, at least as much as you can, cross reference, come up with your own thoughts and contribute to any discussion - standing on your feet ( even on the shoulders of giants ) is way superior to blindly following in one's wake.

And I wish everybody a very profitable baseball season!

(Here I'd like to mention that I also value a lot of the other people's input. I don't want to be ungrateful for all the great stuff I've read in this forum.)

full ack !

rgz,
Mris

[joanapoker]

good input from MrBushido and suicidekings!

good work

we all look like kids in a candy store, waiting for CK to delivery us the sweets

good luck all

[Cassidy]

Mr.Bushido I think the most neutral way at choosing a book to track this system, is the official one by CK, thegreek (1st innings). I know there may be other ones with better lines, which obviously are the best choices for real playing, but regarding this system and the official "how-to-do" rules by CK, it would be more accurate if tracked playing the EXACT way he does, in order to finally keep the same scores and profits he will state on his personal record (or at least the closest as possible).

Aside this, we can track as well the record on the best books which offer the best lines.

Just an opinion.

[peterpan19]

the greek:
net: -0.95 units (april 6th)

for more details contact me if you want the exact lines

GL

[CashMoney]

Again, incorrect. With a $4K bankroll it's $100 a game until August in which you double your bet to $200 a game. WTF????

I stand by my original comment....CK IS THE MAN

I'm a retard

[jellobiafra]

I'm very interested in seeing how these play out in regards to + odds games and - odds games. If this proves to be a totally random occurrence without real regard to any handicapping factors - ie pitchers and park - and the + games are equally as likely to hit as the - games..... well you know how happy that will make us. It would mean we're getting better than even odds and we're getting paid the juice for it. We become the house. And then we all hammer this shxt into the ground until the books figure it out and we kill the golden goose.... but I digress.

[million2one]

Mr. Bushido thanks for tracking the sample plays.
Will you be tracking the results all thoughout April and posting?
I'm just curious to see where we would stand at the end of April.

Officially I'm not starting until May 1st. If CK say so, I listen. End of Story

UR the man CK, ,thanks for all you great information in MLB and NBA.

[million2one]

BTW,

Anyone here playing the JM Baseball system?
Is there a thread for it where I can see posted plays?
I know the system but don't have the latest version.
I could start a thread for it if there is not one already.

Sorry CK, i will never make mention of this again.

[Cheme82]

Hey guys thanks to everyone that helped in getting the MLB sheets ready. We now have the system backtracked all the way to 2004. More than 10,000 games backtracked and the system holds steady producing about 150 wins every year. Totals for the 5 years are 5,617 wins, 4,863 losses, and 10,480 total games. About 53.5%, not much of an edge but the key is the fact that there is no homework involved and the volume of bets is what makes the 53.5% turn into a decent profit.

I have been monitoring the lines the past 2 days and they look very nice as yesterday's lines were positive on average and today's look about even on average.

I worked on a money management system that produces way better results than flat betting. For anyone that doesn't have the spreadsheets yet just send a $50 money order to....... nah, just shitting with you, I sound like Morrison .

Just PM me your e-mail and I will send the completed sheets from 2004 to 2008.

[peeiempee]

So no one answered my question. Does betus allow betting on a run scored the whole game? Probobaly not cause that's a guarantee win. But just checking...

[therber2]

"SHopping around is key. Open account in as many books as you can that offer this type of bet and shop around because today for the Atlanta game I saw -130 to +105 range.

Also a lot of people think it is more likely that no run scores so hopefully books won't change the vig too much."

This is great advice from Chime. He and I were looking at the numbers. I figured that from 2008 the average break even line would have had to be -113.5 or so.

If you do this I would make it a point to shop for -110 or less. Thanks Cheme for your research. If anyone wants to see the break even calculation for 2008 PM me or Chime. I will see what it was for the previous years.

Finding good lines is key. Doesn't seem as though anything in the -130ish range will do you any good.

[bsebal7]

Not going to start doing this until May like it was suggested....but the greek wrote me this earlier today.... I hope they offer this during the season on the national broadcast games... so far no luck. Any other good books that have all games on television offered for the LIVE BETTING by inning for the 1st 3 innings?

On Tue, Apr 7, 2009 at 6:16 PM, The Greek Customer Service <support@thegreek.com> wrote:
Dear Shawn,

The Cubs is on TV but the Angels is not; However, we will not be offering that line today.

You can check back tomorrow.

Thanks for choosing the Greek and sorry for any inconvenience.

Best Regards,
Swayna
Customer Service Dept.

[rjohnny]

Can someone logically explain why this system waits till May to begin?
-If the book is paying you to make this wager...it just doesn't start paying you in May it's the whole season.
-the numbers that people have researched for April seem to be positive.

I'm not trying to stir things up here I'm just looking for an answer supported by data.

[suicidekings]

Crumbs Day 2 Results (Tracking only, for now)

The original bankroll for the purpose of tracking was set at $1000, and the bet size is always adjusted to 1u = 2.5% of the previous day's final balance. All games are chased through the 3rd inning as needed, and all lines are taken from Bet365.

Tuesday, April 7th:
Starting Bankroll: $1063.19 (+1.49u)
Initial Bet Size: $26.58

Record after the First Inning: 7-5 (+2.12u)
Record after the Second Inning: 9-3 (+0.52u)
Record after the Third Inning: 11-1 (+3.17u)

Results for the Day:
Net Gain: $84.26 (+3.17u)

YTD:
22-2 (+5.66u)
New Bankroll: $1147.45
________________________________________ ___________

[suicidekings]

I want to point out that not all games available for the first inning allow live in-game betting. Bet365 has a few of the games available, but maybe about a third of the total games for the day. That makes the totals shown above inflated beyond what you can actually acheive. If you were to only place the bet on the first inning, the results for the last 3 days would have been:

Sunday, April 5: 1-0 (+1u)
Monday, April 6: 5-6 (-0.4u)
Tuesday, April 7: 7-5 (+2.12u)
YTD: 13-11 (+2.72u)

Even though the record through 3 innings is listed at 22-2, like all chase systems, losses are expensive. A loss under these circumstances consists of losing 6 units, which represents 15% of your total bankroll...

Also, Cheme calculated the average break-even line over the long term as +107 over the course of the season. Monday's average line was +106, and today's was +101 at Bet 365.

[cocknocker]

Hey guys thanks to everyone that helped in getting the MLB sheets ready. We now have the system backtracked all the way to 2004. More than 10,000 games backtracked and the system holds steady producing about 150 wins every year. Totals for the 5 years are 5,617 wins, 4,863 losses, and 10,480 total games. About 53.5%, not much of an edge but the key is the fact that there is no homework involved and the volume of bets is what makes the 53.5% turn into a decent profit.

I have been monitoring the lines the past 2 days and they look very nice as yesterday's lines were positive on average and today's look about even on average.

I worked on a money management system that produces way better results than flat betting. For anyone that doesn't have the spreadsheets yet just send a $50 money order to....... nah, just shitting with you, I sound like Morrison .

Just PM me your e-mail and I will send the completed sheets from 2004 to 2008.

All of which brings us to part two. Taking the over for the 1st inning if it is availale on a particular book. Both my wfe and myself will be doing it at the same time so we will end up with 300 wins total on average this year.

[trinitiy]

thank you suicidekings for tracking this

[suicidekings]

CK:

Question for you.. I'm keeping track of the average line for each day as I track the system, and previously calculated that you would need a +107 average to maintain profitability over the long run, assuming a 53%/75%/86% winning percentage on the 1st/2nd/3rd innings from past seasons.

Wednesday's lines are now up at the book I'm using, and the average is -107. With 15 games in action, if you were playing tomorrow, you would be putting up 37.5% of your total bankroll just on the first inning. In your experience, how often are you going to be seeing lines that have a - average like this? And do you personally have a limit to how steep the prices are before you decide to skip a day?

[Cassidy]

suicidekings your talking only about chasing? 1st/2nd/3rd at 1/2/3 units each? I assume that, so for the first innings only, a +100 average, would be far enough with the over shown by the stats for 1st innings >50%

One thing I think CK didnt mention, is if he wager the same amount in all plays (1st innings) no matter what is the line + or -. I mean, you just wager 1 unit risk, not to win 1unit when there is -EV. If your standard wager is, lets say 200 a play, when a line is for instance -115, you play just 200 too right?

[MaddCapper25]

Terrible lines at TheGreek today:

Florida

Washington

-125

Philadelphia

Atlanta

-115

Arizona

Colorado

-130

Baltimore

New York Y

-125

Toronto

Detroit

-125

Boston

Tampa Bay

100

Cincinnati

New York M

100

Texas

Cleveland

-130

Houston

Chicago C

-115

Minnesota

Seattle

110

Chicago W

Kansas City

100

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

-105

Los Angeles A

Oakland

-115

San Diego

Los Angeles D

-105

San Francisco

Milwaukee

105

[jellobiafra]

Have you guys noticed how many views this thread has? I just don't think this is going to last. When they notice 5,000 more people playing this prop bet across the board every day they are going to adjust the lines. Looks like the Greek is already on to us.

[grappler145]

i agree Jello

[CashMoney]

The lines at BetUS only has 2 games at+ money

[therber2]

i agree Jello

Yeah, it seems like even shopping around the lines are not what CK said they would be. The whole concept was to play a slightly greater than 50% hit rate at + prices. Could it be that CK's season thread volume is having an effect on the lines? I'm just going to track this first month, and see what the average priceline is. Let's see if it actually is +lines.