CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[jellobiafra]

Can somebody give me the best option for books where I could make these wagers? I just called BetJam and they don't offer it.


Edit:

Just checked my old Sportsbook.com account and they have it for the game tonight. Don't know if they offer it for every game but I guess I might have to put money back into that place again.

[Bobby518]

Line at Sportsbook.com is now +105 YES, and -135 NO.

[peterpan19]

ok so just checked 4 possible books for this type of betting
bookmaker:even
betus: even
thegreek: -105
sportsbook.com: +105

GL

[Mr.Bushido]

bet365: even

[jellobiafra]

I'll just do a book to book transfer and open an account at the Greek. I just checked and they even offer sign up bonus on book to books. You could almost run a system just transferring funds from book to book, play for a month or so to release all bonuses and then move it to the next book in the system. Rinse and repeat. I guess you could try to keep cycling it though and get reload bonuses too maybe. lol.

[therber2]

CK, simple question here: So, you bet first inning of all games, BUT do you double on only nationally televised games or all games of the day? Thanks.

[italiano22]

Is there going to be a run in the first inning today?

[SportsChic]

I vote yes...

[solobass]

Booked Play

Braves +110

[JayRow]

Don't start until May. Otherwise it's not a CK play.

[Dexter]

the phillies will raise the banners tonight in philadelphia, and i expect a hangover effect to favor the braves in this game. derek lowe has had a great spring with a 24/2 k/bb ratio in 22inn. i do expect great things from brett myers this year, but he has historically struggled vs the braves with an era/whip of 4.57/1.29, and in 2 home games last year vs atl gave up 10er in 8 inn - while lowe has been solid vs the phillies with a 2.96/1.17 era/whip including a 6inn 2er performance at philly last year. the phillies are 4-7 in home games vs atl with brett myers starting.lowe is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a ratio from last year of 1.59 while myers is more of a fly ball pitcher with a .94 ground ball to fly ball ratio. expect a homer or 2 by atl to make the difference in this little league park where the wind will be blowing out at 10mph (not a huge factor, but in this stadium it could be).

-braves +5.5

[Jimbo42]

Hey guys do any of you know of a website with archived mlb games WITH the lines on the game.....Vegasinsider I used for 2008 but can't seem to get 2007 or 2006... Thanks for the help..

[peterpan19]

jimbo

sportsbettingstats.com

[Jimbo42]

jimbo

sportsbettingstats.com

Sweeeet! nice site!

[MaddCapper25]

Hey guys,

I've been using covers.com to look up historical lines. I just checked out sportsbettingstats.com and noticed that the two sites vary significantly on some of the lines. Example, covers has the ML on the 7/9/08 BOS game that J. Beckett pitched as -241, but sporstbettingstats has the ML at +100.

Any idea as to why the disparity? Which is the more accurate one?

Thanks!

[peeiempee]

Everyone I guess is hitting the greek up. -130 for run scored in 1st inning

[Skelaton4]

So Should I use betus for this system?

[peeiempee]

betus and 5dimes all have it at +105

[google99]

i'd say no runs 1st -120

[joanapoker]

first game scored! bet365 ofered at +100 today!

I'm still waiting for CK or others to help me with my questions.....

[solobass]

braves 4.5 cashed now need the game.....in lowe we trust

[cocknocker]

You guys see how the Braves scred two runs in the first inning today? It's just that simple. You guys are over-complicating something that is very simple

[solobass]

You guys see how the Braves scred two runs in the first inning today? It's just that simple. You guys are over-complicating something that is very simple

amen brother. 1st inning cash 4.5 inning cash now just need the game for the braves trifecta

[Dexter]

braves looking good right now, but we all know how bullpens can blow up at any time. i think now that baseball is here, i will likely only play my nba "big" games to keep my daily card at no more then the 1-5 plays i like to make. and on avg, i like to make maybe 2-3 plays per day.

[rjohnny]

I understand under your system you don't start till May. Your reasoning being you are letting the batters catch up to the pitching. Is this belief based on historical numbers or just your belief? I think I saw a post where April '08 was negative and '07 was positive. Also on nationally televised games are you only referring to ESPN or Fox and the new Tbs. If so how do you treat games that are televised regionally. Last question how come on live betting you are playing the 3rd inning just to break even at best with favorable lines? 1st 200 2nd 400 and 3rd 600(why not 800).

[Dexter]

james shields does not like fenway park. tb is 0-3 in games he started at boston. last years 2 starts in boston totaled 11er in 4ip. beckett on the flip side had a solid 20ip for 6er in his 3 home starts vs tb. for his career, the redsox are 4-2 in home games he started vs tb.

-redsox (ML to follow once booked tomorrow)

aaron cook has a career 4.85/1.50 era/whip in games vs ari. last years 2 starts in arz resulted in 8er in 11ip. his team is 3-5 at the dbacks in games hes started. webb was solid vs the rockies last year pitching 3 home games (all wins) giving up 9er in 22ip. he has a career 3.80/1.28 in starts vs the rockies - in his 12 home starts vs col, the dbacks have gone 8-4 in those games.

-dbacks (RL -1.5 - odds to follow once booked)

runs should be few and far between when liriano and king felix hook up. hernandez has a career 2.48/.96 vs the twins while liriano has a 1.50/1.00 era/whip vs the mariners. last year, liriano had 1 home start vs sea and gave up 0 er in 7ip. hernandez has only pitched twice in minny, but not since 2007. both starts back then were solid (15ip/5er). each teams best hitter (mauer/suzuki) will be out for this game as well.

under twins

[cocknocker]

first game scored! bet365 ofered at +100 today!

I'm still waiting for CK or others to help me with my questions.....

joanapoker, please PM me for questions. I have found that there are too many idiotic questions. No one else is gonna give a person a way to make 150 more wins than losses in any sport, yet the stupid questions keep on coming, and I have grown tired of them

[Dexter]

hang on, maybe im tired but y'all are confusing me. for live betting assuming even odds(which i wont have time to do) this should be the structure for a $100 dollar bet on inn 1.

1st inn = $100
2nd inn = $200
3rd inn = $400

[trinitiy]

very interesting system, just wondering what book you guys are using for this? I think I might give Betcris a try.

[rjohnny]

^
that's correct. Cocknocker has been wrong twice. First in referencing a post as correct and then posting incorrect information. But be careful if you try to point this out to him you will be called an idiot.

[BrandonLaz]

I honestly say we stop all this system talk until it starts in May. It is pretty obvious how to use the system I do not understand where all these questions are coming from. Dex I love all 3 of your plays and am probably going to have to jack them from you.

[AzNDooM]

serz rjohnny, im new to this sbrforum and after months and months of reading even I know that CK is right. You must of not read the WHOLE Forum correctly cause hes been posting it for ages. His records are proven and I seriously was quite skeptical before I started following his picks and systems. I actually spent 1 month tracking his bets and what do you know, he always seemed to be on the money. I only now follow his heavy plays as its gone 6-2 for me in the past two weeks (personal option) and add Dexters heavy plays as an adjustment w/ Phoenix32/Jimbo42 as a third tail as they are regulars but dont hit as wellz as the other two.

In addition this is probably the best advice ive been given by anyone after reading books and books nothing is better then this stuff. (I just wish they had some Australian Books that do 1st runs and live betting).

Looks like im going to have to open a book at betUS before MAY. Still saving up for the 4k bankroll, but will hopefully be there by deadline.

[Dexter]

nice brandon - im just afraid the sox game may get cancelled. yeah, the system is pretty simple. lets just roll with it come may. but i will not be chasing at all until maybe the playoffs, as there is no way me or my partner will have the time to sit there and place bets/watch scores each night live.

[Dexter]

For the playoffs I have a total of 34 games. If you played them normally you would have ended up with a 23-11 (+12 differential) record. If you doubled till the 3rd. inning you would have ended up with a 31-3 record (+10 differential). Remember a loss when you are doubling up till the 3rd. inning is a loss of 7 units because you would lose 1 unit+2 units+4 units.

thx for the research - doubling up is not something i looked into for the tv games or playoffs, but after seeing this im pretty sure im just going to do the 1st inn only all year.

[Skelaton4]

I am curious as to what the difference would be if you only double up and do not triple up during the playoffs