CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[Skelaton4]

Anyway to start this system with 500$ and work up from there?

[tweek]

CK... great results... do you have the individual lines you got for each of the games you could share with us?

[cocknocker]

Well I like to use both Greek and Betus. i know that Betus gets a bad rap but I have been using them for years. But what I like about Betus is that it seems that every nationally televised game has live betting offered on it with this book. I hear that Bodog is good for live wagering also. I think that live wagering is much like the JM system as you double up to cover your losses and the beauty of it is you don't have to wait for another game to get your money back. You can get it back right there in the same game!

[Cheme82]

I actually backtracked the totals when doubling up till the 3rd. inning. (starting in May)

Total games: 2,043
First 3 innings when run/s scored: 1,775
First 3 innings with no run/s scored: 268
Differential: -101 [1,775-(7*268)]

That's why I found doubling up till the 3rd. to be -EV. I know this was for the whole season but even breaking it down by month, doubling up would have ended up in negative units in May, June, and July. August and September would have shown a profit but not as much as just playing regurlarly. The only month that would have shown a better total if you doubled up is October. Without doubling up you would have picked 12 units, doubling up you would have shown +16.

I know you said you only do it on televised games, but unless there is a correlation between runs scored in the first 3 innings and televised games, I find it hard to be able to pinpoint which games to double up on and which ones not.

[esz04]

An article about first inning betting: http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/b...irstinning.htm

Obviously not the most amazing article, but I found it with a quick google search and was curious. It seems to suggest that there is you have to lay worse odds on the over for the first inning. Is that not true?

[tweek]

I actually backtracked the totals when doubling up till the 3rd. inning. (starting in May)

Total games: 2,043
First 3 innings when run/s scored: 1,775
First 3 innings with no run/s scored: 268
Differential: -101 [1,775-(7*268)]

That's why I found doubling up till the 3rd. to be -EV. I know this was for the whole season but even breaking it down by month, doubling up would have ended up in negative units in May, June, and July. August and September would have shown a profit but not as much as just playing regurlarly. The only month that would have shown a better total if you doubled up is October. Without doubling up you would have picked 12 units, doubling up you would have shown +16.

I know you said you only do it on televised games, but unless there is a correlation between runs scored in the first 3 innings and televised games, I find it hard to be able to pinpoint which games to double up on and which ones not.

I just ran this query on my database and got 2096 games having a run in the first 3 innings, and 332 not.

[Cheme82]

May 07

Total games: 422
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 242
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 180
Differential: +62

[tweek]

AH... I'm just realizing why you have so few games (you are starting in May!)... re-ran the queries:

1st run scores: 1078-932 (+146)
3rd run scores: 1744-266

This is without playoff games... so our numbers are probably pretty similar.

[Cheme82]

Hew tweek, remember I am doing it starting in May. Nice article link by the way, thanks.

CK: I remember you saying that you usually got + money on your lines. The article suggests you usually lay -120 on the yes for the runs scored so you will have to hit 55% to make a profit. Last year the system hit 53.8% starting in May. I think the lines we get are what determines the success of the system. In the years that you have been wagering, have you consistently seen + money on those lines?

[Cheme82]

Anyway to start this system with 500$ and work up from there?

Just divide your bankroll by 40 and that's the size of your bets. You could play the system with $40 bucks and do $1 wagers.

[Skelaton4]

awesome thank you i might do this starting in mid April or may

[bailey]

2005 Results(did this quickly so it could be slightly off
May 207-227 -20
June 209-175 +34
July218-188 +30
Aug 209-209 0
Sept 225-173 +52
Oct 18-12 + 6

Total
1086-972 +114

[trumpdown]

Seems like a dream...until we all find out we are betting into - lines. Before anymore research continues perhaps it would be best to find this MOST important info. out first. Are we betting into a - first inning run scored?

[cocknocker]

I actually backtracked the totals when doubling up till the 3rd. inning. (starting in May)

Total games: 2,043
First 3 innings when run/s scored: 1,775
First 3 innings with no run/s scored: 268
Differential: -101 [1,775-(7*268)]

That's why I found doubling up till the 3rd. to be -EV. I know this was for the whole season but even breaking it down by month, doubling up would have ended up in negative units in May, June, and July. August and September would have shown a profit but not as much as just playing regurlarly. The only month that would have shown a better total if you doubled up is October. Without doubling up you would have picked 12 units, doubling up you would have shown +16.

I know you said you only do it on televised games, but unless there is a correlation between runs scored in the first 3 innings and televised games, I find it hard to be able to pinpoint which games to double up on and which ones not.

The obvious is that the playoffs produced a 31-3 mark for beginners. Over the season I only ost around roughly 20 or so times. Games that are natiaonally televised are mostly on Wednesdays on ESPN and a ton of them down the stretch in October and November. What I do find peculiar is that there aren't taht many in the beginning of the season that are offered live, and that I think shut the numbers down a bit. But fr the most part, there are only around 130 or so televised games. I think that what is happenng is taht the games that are nationally televised are games between heavy hitting teams, and not those pitching gems that produce games that the public maynot be interested in. I have no idea why the doubling up method works so well, but I think that may have something t odo with it.

[cocknocker]

Hew tweek, remember I am doing it starting in May. Nice article link by the way, thanks.

CK: I remember you saying that you usually got + money on your lines. The article suggests you usually lay -120 on the yes for the runs scored so you will have to hit 55% to make a profit. Last year the system hit 53.8% starting in May. I think the lines we get are what determines the success of the system. In the years that you have been wagering, have you consistently seen + money on those lines?

I would saythat the usual line is +120. I think that the public is laying the NOT line which is almost always negative money. The majority of wagers that I make are for positive or + money. I find that I made a lot of wagers at +160 for pitching matchups between say two aces....In the time that I have been doing it, the only team that sticks out for a lot of negative money for a run to score is th CUBS in the day games when the wind is blowing out. other than that, no other team is consistently at negative numbers

[cocknocker]

May 07

Total games: 422
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 242
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 180
Differential: +62

Now that is BIG money when you take into account that you play them for $300.00 a pop! $300.00 X 62=$18,600.00 for one month's work with no homework involved! That is what the beauty of this system is!

[Cheme82]

If we can average a +100 line then it would be amazing because each unit on the +side will be a unit earned.

October 2007

Total games: 29
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 18
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 11
Differential: +7

September 2007

Total games: 415
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 240
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 175
Differential: +65

Just missing June, July, and August 2007.

Thanks for doing 2005 Bailey.

[trumpdown]

The obvious is that the playoffs produced a 31-3 mark for beginners. Over the season I only ost around roughly 20 or so times. Games that are natiaonally televised are mostly on Wednesdays on ESPN and a ton of them down the stretch in October and November. What I do find peculiar is that there aren't taht many in the beginning of the season that are offered live, and that I think shut the numbers down a bit. But fr the most part, there are only around 130 or so televised games. I think that what is happenng is taht the games that are nationally televised are games between heavy hitting teams, and not those pitching gems that produce games that the public maynot be interested in. I have no idea why the doubling up method works so well, but I think that may have something t odo with it.

CK~ I appreciate your thread as I stumbled upon it, but when you said you have only lost 20 or so times do you mean when you are "doubling up" as this would equate to 20 x 7 or 140 losses. If this being the case that would not be $$ Again this is just the way I interpreted your words so I could be incorrect.

Also all games first innings really have to be + for a fair research spreadsheet to be initiated. Otherwise how can an accurate one be recorded? And even if this is true that all games first innings are + $$ surely a book would catch on to this, so this must not be true depending on the pitcher or team.

And if this isn't true than one could say only to bet on a + $$ first inning, but then wouldn't the number of units to potentially win, diminish?

[tweek]

CK~ I appreciate your thread as I stumbled upon it, but when you said you have only lost 20 or so times do you mean when you are "doubling up" as this would equate to 20 x 7 or 140 losses. If this being the case that would not be $$ Again this is just the way I interpreted your words so I could be incorrect.

Also all games first innings really have to be + for a fair research spreadsheet to be initiated. Otherwise how can an accurate one be recorded? And even if this is true that all games first innings are + $$ surely a book would catch on to this, so this must not be true depending on the pitcher or team.

And if this isn't true than one could say only to bet on a + $$ first inning, but then wouldn't the number of units to potentially win, diminish?

Good post trump... The only way to really know is to track the lines for each day. I will do so this year (and post the results as the season progresses).

[Cheme82]

Hey CK, that would make sense as far as the televised games being games that are likely to produce more runs since people enjoy a high-scoring game more than a pitching duel (I like a duel better by the way, watching pitchers like Cliff Lee dominating the way he did last year is just great).

That might explain why doubling up on televised games was +EV for you. If you think about it, after a pitcher has gotten out of the 1st. inning with no damage he tends to settle down and also he just got done with the top of the order so the next innings he will be facing weaker hitters. Also a lot of pitchers have a very small window to get runs on them (like Tom Glavine on his good years with the Braves), if you didn't score a run in the first on him you were screwed because he will settle down and just be really hard to hit.

[peterpan19]

ok so to sum it up you just need 5 easy steps to turn 4k into 60k
1 put 4k into an account that offers 1st inning bets
2 bet every game 1st inning run scored starting may 1
3 start with 100 per game
4 200 per game starting august 1
5 bet until the third inning and double up each time for every national televised game until a run is scored

its that easy... gosh I love it

GL

[cocknocker]

I think that August is another hot month. Last year we went 240 and 183 in that one. What I found to be interestingis that when you have two people in the same household doing it, it is like magic. That is why for all those who are married, it is good to have the Missus fire up an account as well. Then 57 wins turns into 114 wins and so on.

[cocknocker]

CK~ I appreciate your thread as I stumbled upon it, but when you said you have only lost 20 or so times do you mean when you are "doubling up" as this would equate to 20 x 7 or 140 losses. If this being the case that would not be $$ Again this is just the way I interpreted your words so I could be incorrect.

Also all games first innings really have to be + for a fair research spreadsheet to be initiated. Otherwise how can an accurate one be recorded? And even if this is true that all games first innings are + $$ surely a book would catch on to this, so this must not be true depending on the pitcher or team.

And if this isn't true than one could say only to bet on a + $$ first inning, but then wouldn't the number of units to potentially win, diminish?

20 losses against 96 wins means cash. Just like in the playoffs when I lost only three times doubling up versus 31 wins. The math is simple.

[cocknocker]

Man I love this thread and I am the creator of it! So much good input and research from all different angles. This is why I love the degenerate wagering community. No degree necessary!

[trumpdown]

So you mean around 3 games of 3-inning losses of doubling up compared to 96 Wins. Doubling up and losing 20 different games for 3 innings would again equate to a 140 actual unit loss...correct? I apologize in advance if I am cluttering your thread. Just what appeared to look like $$$ is now having some gray area.

[cocknocker]

No problem, trumpdown. In the 96 wins the cash came before the 3rd inning. Some in the 1st and some in the 2nd and some on the 3rd. In the 20 losses the third inning came and went without a run being scored. In those 96 wins you negated the loss of the previous innings by surpassing what you put up on those prior innings, much like the JM system when an A bet looses and either the B or the C bet cashes the ticket.

And let's be generous with the 20 number as I said roughly, and that means just that... "rough". To say that doubling up consitutes a loss is to say that the JM system for wagering on NBA doesn't work. Anyone who says that the JM system doesn't work is a person who obviously has not tried the system with real money, and therefore would not be qualified to speak on it's effectiveness. The JM system works and so does this one.

If the system doesn't seem like it will work for you, you are more than welcome to sit on the sideline and then come back and see what those who actually used it will say when the season is over. I think that that woud be enough proof for you for next year.

[trumpdown]

Fair enough and thank you for responding Obviously I don't want to miss out on an opportunity just need to sort out a few things, since I'm sure I am not alone in questioning, as most here haven't been graced with this system before. So I will continue to soak up information for now, (if you don't mind) and when the time comes look forward to joining this very appealing proposition.

[Chi_archie]

I think that August is another hot month. Last year we went 240 and 183 in that one. What I found to be interestingis that when you have two people in the same household doing it, it is like magic. That is why for all those who are married, it is good to have the Missus fire up an account as well. Then 57 wins turns into 114 wins and so on.

what's the point of opening another account?


why not just double the amount from the first?

I'd not want to risk giving the books a reason to with hold payments due to fraud suspecion (ie. two accounts one household, same bets.....bonus whoring)

[corona]

why not just double the amount from the first?

books put limits on prop bets.

[corona]

can someone with a spreadsheet of past seasons check out the results of april?

maybe its profitable to do the reverse of this trend for the first 2-3 weeks of the season (aka. bet that no runs will be scored in the first inning)

[bailey]

I know thr Greek offers thre 1st inning prop anyone know if 5Dimes and Betjam offer this?

[bailey]

can someone with a spreadsheet of past seasons check out the results of april?

maybe its profitable to do the reverse of this trend for the first 2-3 weeks of the season (aka. bet that no runs will be scored in the first inning)

I did April 2005 which was 199-176 +23
I think April 2008 was 193-204 -11

[Dexter]

income tax refund gets put to work...

[Skelaton4]

Would a sight like WSEX work for you system CK?

[therber2]

CK, Just to clarify "doubling up" do you mean scenario A or B:

A.) Cover
1.) $200 First inning
2.) $400 Second inning (if Lose)
3.) $600 Third inning (if Lose)

...or

B.) Chase
1.) $200 First Inning
2.) $400 Second Inning (if Lose)
3.) $800 Third Inning (if Lose)

Also, do you bet all games 1st inning or just the nationally televised/+line games?

If you just do the dog lines, then scenario A should work as a chase.

Thanks bro.