CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[jellobiafra]

I'm curious as to what the percentages will be for bets at + and -....with or without vig. It seems kind of like a random proposition that just happens to fall on one side more often than the other. I mean if there's really no handicapping involved then why wouldn't you just play the bets where you're getting + odds....or cap it at like -110 or even maybe

[Dexter]

Baseball Umpire Report Sorted by Under % For the 2008 Season</B>#Umpire#GOverUnderOver %Under %OV UnitsUN UnitsRPGBBPGSOPG1S RAKOS2020.0%100.0%-2.42.05.510.522.02M CARLSON1010.0%100.0%-1.21.05.06.09.03C TILLER61420.0%80.0%-3.22.88.07.012.34B DAVIDSON34102330.3%69.7%-14.111.98.07.313.85R KULPA33102231.3%68.8%-13.310.27.86.215.16M ESTABROOK2271531.8%68.2%-8.76.88.26.313.07D BEAL62433.3%66.7%-2.11.88.07.015.28M FOSTER34112134.4%65.6%-10.88.88.46.613.99B KNIGHT34122235.3%64.7%-10.78.28.86.812.810A HERNANDEZ34112035.5%64.5%-10.37.38.56.312.711E MONTAGUE2691636.0%64.0%-7.95.88.16.913.212C MERIWETHER33122136.4%63.6%-9.86.98.96.413.913W BELL36111936.7%63.3%-9.06.39.16.413.814C BUCKNOR34122037.5%62.5%-8.85.98.46.113.415B MILLER37132138.2%61.8%-8.86.68.05.813.416B ONORA35132138.2%61.8%-8.75.88.65.913.417D DEMUTH34132138.2%61.8%-9.05.78.56.213.718B HOHN26101638.5%61.5%-7.24.57.57.114.019P EMMEL35142140.0%60.0%-7.94.48.05.713.720D SCOTT34142041.2%58.8%-7.24.49.36.814.121A FLETCHER33121741.4%58.6%-5.93.28.17.214.322B DRECKMAN33141942.4%57.6%-6.23.08.36.613.623M WEGNER35141942.4%57.6%-5.92.99.27.913.924J NELSON34141942.4%57.6%-6.33.18.35.514.325M MUCHLINSKI73442.9%57.1%-1.20.410.04.015.926K DANLEY28121642.9%57.1%-5.12.68.46.912.927B RUNGE35141843.8%56.3%-5.31.79.05.913.628R DRAKE37162044.4%55.6%-5.41.78.76.514.429D EDDINGS34151845.5%54.5%-3.51.29.66.314.230P NAUERT33151845.5%54.5%-3.90.69.16.013.131T BARRETT35161945.7%54.3%-4.21.28.36.014.632S BARRY30141646.7%53.3%-2.8-0.39.97.112.633M WINTERS32151746.9%53.1%-2.80.08.86.413.334J WOLF34151746.9%53.1%-2.1-0.59.17.013.935T HALLION35161847.1%52.9%-2.3-0.69.36.313.536G CEDERSTROM35161847.1%52.9%-2.7-0.78.56.013.537F CULBRETH36161847.1%52.9%-3.4-0.38.87.213.538D COUSINS36171947.2%52.8%-3.4-0.49.37.512.839R MARSH1991047.4%52.6%-1.3-0.710.57.311.740J LAYNE32151648.4%51.6%-2.3-1.59.47.913.141P CUZZI33151648.4%51.6%-2.2-0.88.55.815.542E COOPER34161650.0%50.0%-1.3-2.79.56.112.943C GUCCIONE37171750.0%50.0%-1.4-3.09.86.612.844J HOYE37171750.0%50.0%-0.2-2.810.16.914.645M EVERITT36161650.0%50.0%-1.0-2.39.66.414.146G GIBSON36161650.0%50.0%-0.4-2.79.57.413.347L BARKSDALE34161650.0%50.0%-0.6-2.19.08.312.948P SCHRIEBER30151550.0%50.0%-1.2-1.69.78.412.749C RELIFORD29141450.0%50.0%-0.6-2.19.97.213.450J KELLOGG36181751.4%48.6%0.3-3.89.57.112.751D IASSOGNA33171651.5%48.5%0.4-3.78.66.515.252B GORMAN35171651.5%48.5%0.3-3.89.55.813.753T WELKE36171651.5%48.5%0.7-3.79.16.514.754E HICKOX32161551.6%48.4%0.1-3.69.66.614.455J JOYCE35171553.1%46.9%1.7-5.19.66.212.556G DAVIS33171553.1%46.9%0.8-4.69.87.013.557R REED137653.8%46.2%0.7-2.18.57.612.758M REILLY35191654.3%45.7%2.4-5.89.36.813.659E RAPUANO36181554.5%45.5%1.9-5.49.66.912.360T TIMMONS34181554.5%45.5%2.6-5.510.16.014.661M DIMURO33181554.5%45.5%2.3-5.89.26.612.862A JOHNSON35181554.5%45.5%2.3-5.59.68.014.263J CRAWFORD2311955.0%45.0%1.8-3.811.37.811.864T MCCLELLAND35191555.9%44.1%3.8-6.610.37.812.265J WEST34171356.7%43.3%3.0-6.310.26.113.466B WELKE34191457.6%42.4%4.2-7.510.37.013.767L DIAZ34191457.6%42.4%4.7-8.19.55.814.168S HOLBROOK36211558.3%41.7%5.3-9.210.87.113.269L VANOVER32171258.6%41.4%4.0-7.310.17.113.370C FAIRCHILD36211460.0%40.0%6.6-10.211.07.613.171A MARQUEZ35201360.6%39.4%6.8-10.010.58.414.072H WENDELSTEDT35201360.6%39.4%6.5-9.79.86.914.073T TSCHIDA34211361.8%38.2%7.5-11.09.97.414.574M HUDSON34211361.8%38.2%7.6-11.710.17.913.675J REYNOLDS35211165.6%34.4%9.7-13.710.36.113.076J MEALS35231265.7%34.3%10.8-14.69.96.513.577T TICHENOR128466.7%33.3%3.9-5.59.36.312.878K CAUSEY96366.7%33.3%2.9-3.810.46.810.979G DARLING34231167.6%32.4%11.9-16.19.96.412.680D REYBURN43175.0%25.0%1.8-2.611.87.013.381A CAMPOS2518578.3%21.7%13.2-16.511.66.614.882D COLON220100.0%0.0%2.0-2.313.05.014.583C MOSER110100.0%0.0%1.0-1.215.09.06.0

this is some sick information, but hard to read. can you take 1 umpire and give me an example of what the stats/%'s you have listed mean? i assume bolded means the % of his games that have stayed under? - will statfox always list the umpire well before first pitch?

[cocknocker]

Well I think that they give that information in the morning of the game. The umps are not listed tonight. The bold number is thepercentage amount of games they call that go under. I don't know what the hell all of the other numbers are anymore after i cut and pasted it, lol! I only darkened the important information!

[RoagBettor]

Dex, will you be posting your MLB plays in a separate thread or this one?

Thanks.

[cocknocker]

Play#1 for me: with the reverse line movement involved and a 13-1 career record I wil lbe backing Jake Peavy and the San Diego Padres to pick up the win in their home opener. Since there is no information on the umpire I will hold off on the total. It seems that Statfox is not up to snuff with the umpire listings yet.

San Diego-135

[cocknocker]

Dex, will you be posting your MLB plays in a separate thread or this one?

Thanks.

I don't know about him but this is where I will be making my plays although I may start up seperate threads daily for baseball as I find it is more effective if I seperate my system from my daily plays matter of fact I think I will start up a thread for my daily plays starting now!

[RoagBettor]

CK, I think that's a good idea to have a separate thread for your daily leans/plays like you do for the NBA, particularly since there are so many questions (relevant and irrelevant) about your system.

Thanks.

[Dexter]

Dex, will you be posting your MLB plays in a separate thread or this one?

Thanks.

no, they are here on page 6. if you ever want to look up someones plays, i would suggest drilling down to that members posts only. since these threads have such high volume, posts can def be missed. i do that a lot

[cocknocker]

Don't trip Dexter. I have already started our daily baseball thread just to keep things neat around here, and to have this page devoted entirely to the system only

[Mr.Bushido]

Will there be a score in the 1 inning

NY Mets (Jo Santana) @ CIN Reds (A Harang) +110

CLE Indians (C Lee) @ TEX Rangers (K Millwood) -130

TB Rays (J Shields) @ BOS Red Sox (J Beckett) even

COL Rockies (A Cook) @ ARI Diamondbacks (B Webb) +110

NY Yankees (C Sabathia) @ BAL Orioles (Jeremy Guthrie) even

WAS Nationals (J Lannan) @ FLA Marlins (R Nolasco) +105

PIT Pirates (P Maholm) @ STL Cardinals (A Wainwright) +105

CHI Cubs (C Zambrano) @ HOU Astros (R Oswalt) +105

LA Dodgers (H Kuroda) @ SD Padres (J Peavy) +130

DET Tigers (J Verlander) @ TOR Blue Jays (R Halladay) +110

SEA Mariners (F Hernandez) @ MIN Twins (F Liriano) +110

OAK Athletics (D Braden) @ LA Angels (J.Saunders) even

from bet365

[cocknocker]

Thank you Mr. Bushido for pointing out my point that 75% of all of these types of bets are almost always made at + money or more than even money. The books are paying YOU to make these bets!

[hii]

does anyone know if sportsbetting.com offers first inning bets?

[seanjohn007]

damn this is some good shit. i dont know how you found it but thanks for sharing ck

[joanapoker]

If some of you guys are getting an hard time to find a book that offers good odds at first innings, go check bet365.

bet365 is my book! I'm not advertising here but they are great! Cashouts in 2 hours, payout of the bets in seconds after the game ends, Support real-time very

effective etc...

And baseball bets?? you name it....they have it all! amazing. but I guess for most of you wont work because they do not accept US citizens!

[trinitiy]

If some of you guys are getting an hard time to find a book that offers good odds at first innings, go check bet365.

bet365 is my book! I'm not advertising here but they are great! Cashouts in 2 hours, payout of the bets in seconds after the game ends, Support real-time very

effective etc...

And baseball bets?? you name it....they have it all! amazing. but I guess for most of you wont work because they do not accept US citizens!

thanks, ill check them out

[spongerat]

i've actually been doing this for years during the time just before playoffs and during playoffs and making a killing. however i must issue a warning to those that follow:

blindly betting "yes" for the run in the first inning is robotic and books pick up real quick what you're doing. I have either been limited on that prop, had it removed completely, or had the lines shaded against "yes" at several books, including some of the ones mentioned. I now use a multi-book strategy to try to prolong the wager being offered but they eventually all catch on

[TheCommish]

Comparing a couple of books:

Bet365 and The Greek, Bet365 is giving better odds on most games.

Listed below: first line = bet365, 2nd line = the greek

NY Mets (Jo Santana) @ CIN Reds (A Harang) +110 +110
CLE Indians (C Lee) @ TEX Rangers (K Millwood) -130 -130
COL Rockies (A Cook) @ ARI Diamondbacks (B Webb) +110 +100
NY Yankees (C Sabathia) @ BAL Orioles (Jeremy Guthrie) even -105
WAS Nationals (J Lannan) @ FLA Marlins (R Nolasco) +105 -105
PIT Pirates (P Maholm) @ STL Cardinals (A Wainwright) +105 -105
CHI Cubs (C Zambrano) @ HOU Astros (R Oswalt) +105 +100
LA Dodgers (H Kuroda) @ SD Padres (J Peavy) +130 +110
DET Tigers (J Verlander) @ TOR Blue Jays (R Halladay) +110 +100
SEA Mariners (F Hernandez) @ MIN Twins (F Liriano) +110 +100
OAK Athletics (D Braden) @ LA Angels (J.Saunders) even -105

[Panekkkk]

i've actually been doing this for years during the time just before playoffs and during playoffs and making a killing. however i must issue a warning to those that follow:

blindly betting "yes" for the run in the first inning is robotic and books pick up real quick what you're doing. I have either been limited on that prop, had it removed completely, or had the lines shaded against "yes" at several books, including some of the ones mentioned. I now use a multi-book strategy to try to prolong the wager being offered but they eventually all catch on

Can you point out which books have done this? Did you switch every month or did you only switch books when you noticed that they had caught on?

CK can you confirm whether you have stuck with the same book throughout this process?

[cocknocker]

I have been with Greek.com doing i since I started and have had absolutely no problems

[thebestthereis]

i may be an idiot here but i will ask. i know you place the 1st inning score yes bet, but what if there is no score? is there a bet offered for the 2nd inning once the 1st is complete? same for 3rd? so on.....

[spongerat]

yes but the greek doesn't offer the same value as other books on this bet, and when you're looking at winning around 53-55% value matters

[Croat]

That`s what I want to know too.
And how long does 1 inning last? (yea, I`m from Europe and don`t know sh_t about baseball)

[007Fatty]

so wat do you guys do?
you bet on every score in the first inning?
and you make a profit??

[thebestthereis]

I thought it was a chase for the 1st three innings until you won...if you lost after the 3rd you lost period. This is what I was under the impression it was. That is easy, but I didn't know they offered a 2nd inning line/prop of score yes/no....and so on for the 3rd, 4th, etc.

[Panekkkk]

yes but the greek doesn't offer the same value as other books on this bet, and when you're looking at winning around 53-55% value matters

Who offers better value? Has bet365 ever wisened?

[Croat]

CK I guess you could (should) write FAQ or "How to" on 1st page of this thread because apparently many ppl still have questions about this great system.

Please write some kind of "Guide for dummies".

[Panekkkk]

Anybody down for keeping track of nationally televised games? A list would be nice...

[CashMoney]

i've actually been doing this for years during the time just before playoffs and during playoffs and making a killing. however i must issue a warning to those that follow:

blindly betting "yes" for the run in the first inning is robotic and books pick up real quick what you're doing. I have either been limited on that prop, had it removed completely, or had the lines shaded against "yes" at several books, including some of the ones mentioned. I now use a multi-book strategy to try to prolong the wager being offered but they eventually all catch on

What kind of bullshit is that? So if your betting strategy was to pick favorites everyday and you lost the book wouldn't give a crap, but you win and they mess with you? I would withdraw and never, ever play with a book like that again.

[trinitiy]

NATIONAL LEAGUE THESE PROPS GO 5 MINUTES BEFORE GAME TIME
10:05 AM 6901 YES - NYM/CIN SC 1ST INN +120
6902 NO - NYM/CIN SC 1ST INN -150

12:35 PM 6903 YES - COL/ARI SC 1 INN +110
6904 NO - COL/ARI SC 1 INN -140

1:05 PM 6905 YES - WAS/FLA SC 1 INN +105
6906 NO - WAS/FLA SC 1 INN -135

1:10 PM 6907 YES - PIT/STL SC 1ST INN +115
6908 NO - PIT/STL SC 1ST INN -145

4:00 PM 6909 YES - LAD/SDG SC 1ST INN +130
6910 NO - LAD/SDG SC 1ST INN -160

4:00 PM 6911 YES - CUB/HOU SC 1ST INN +115
6912 NO - CUB/HOU SC 1ST INN -145

11:00 AM 6915 YES - CLE/TEX SC 1ST INN -135
6916 NO - CLE/TEX SC 1ST INN +105

1:00 PM 6919 YES - NYY/BAL SC 1ST INN EV
6920 NO - NYY/BAL SC 1ST INN -130

4:10 PM 6921 YES - DET/TOR SC 1ST INN +115
6922 NO - DET/TOR SC 1ST INN -145

5:05 PM 6923 YES - SEA/MIN SC 1ST INN +120
6924 NO - SEA/MIN SC 1ST INN -150

6:00 PM 6925 YES - OAK/LAA SC 1ST INN EV
6926 NO - OAK/LAA SC 1ST INN -130

these are Betcris lines and they look so much nicer, still undecided on what book to use though.

[Panekkkk]

Bet 365 - Not as nice

CLE Indians (C Lee) @ TEX Rangers (K Millwood)
Book Closes Apr 06 11:05
1st Innings - Yes-130
1st Innings - No-110
COL Rockies (A Cook) @ ARI Diamondbacks (B Webb)
Book Closes Apr 06 12:40
1st Innings - Yes+110
1st Innings - No-150
NY Yankees (C Sabathia) @ BAL Orioles (Jeremy Guthrie)
Book Closes Apr 06 13:05
1st Innings - Yes+100 1st Innings - No-140
WAS Nationals (J Lannan) @ FLA Marlins (R Nolasco)
Book Closes Apr 06 13:10
1st Innings - Yes+105
1st Innings - No-145
PIT Pirates (P Maholm) @ STL Cardinals (A Wainwright)
Book Closes Apr 06 13:15
1st Innings - Yes+105 1st Innings - No-145
CHI Cubs (C Zambrano) @ HOU Astros (R Oswalt)
Book Closes Apr 06 16:05
1st Innings - Yes+105
1st Innings - No-145
LA Dodgers (H Kuroda) @ SD Padres (J Peavy)
Book Closes Apr 06 16:05
1st Innings - Yes+130 1st Innings - No-170
DET Tigers (J Verlander) @ TOR Blue Jays (R Halladay)
Book Closes Apr 06 16:15
1st Innings - Yes+110 1st Innings - No-150
SEA Mariners (F Hernandez) @ MIN Twins (F Liriano)
Book Closes Apr 06 17:10
1st Innings - Yes+110 1st Innings - No-150
OAK Athletics (D Braden) @ LA Angels (J.Saunders)
Book Closes Apr 06 18:05
1st Innings - Yes+100 1st Innings - No-140

BetUS - nice


Mon, Apr 06, 2009 EST Time Rot # Team Run Line Moneyline Total Team Total 4:10p
1005 WAS/FLA Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+105 1006 WAS/FLA Score in 1st Inning - No -135 Lannan & Nolasco Must Start.
4:15p
1007 PIT/STL Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+110 1008 PIT/STL Score in 1st Inning - No -140 Maholm & Wainwright Must Start.
7:05p
1009 LAD/SD Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+140 1010 LAD/SD Score in 1st Inning - No -170 Kuroda & Peavy Must Start.
7:05p
1011 CUB/HOU Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+110 1012 CUB/HOU Score in 1st Inning - No -140 Zambrano & Oswalt Must Start.
4:05p
1017 NYY/BAL Score in 1st Inning - Yes
Ev 1018 NYY/BAL Score in 1st Inning - No -130 Sabathia & Guthrie Must Start.
7:15p
1019 DET/TOR Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+120 1020 DET/TOR Score in 1st Inning - No -150 Verlander & Halladay Must Start.
8:10p
1021 SEA/MIN Score in 1st Inning - Yes
+125 1022 SEA/MIN Score in 1st Inning - No -155 Hernandez & Liriano Must Start.
9:05p
1023 OAK/LAA Score in 1st Inning - Yes
Ev 1024 OAK/LAA Score in 1st Inning - No -130

[Panekkkk]

TheGreek.com - terrible lines


Baseball Props April 6, 2009 – Cubs vs Astros
4/6/2009 6:00 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
355 Yes +100
356 No -130

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Cleveland Indians vs Texas Rangers
4/6/2009 1:00 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
455 Yes -115
456 No -115

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4/6/2009 2:35 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
155 Yes +100
156 No -130

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays
4/6/2009 6:10 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
605 Yes +100
606 No -130

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
4/6/2009 6:00 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
305 Yes +110
306 No -140

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles
4/6/2009 3:00 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
555 Yes -105
556 No -125

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels
4/6/2009 8:00 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
705 Yes -105
706 No -125

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis
4/6/2009 3:10 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
255 Yes -105
256 No -125

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins
4/6/2009 7:05 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
655 Yes +100
656 No -130

Baseball Props April 6, 2009 - Washington Nationals vs Florida Marlins
4/6/2009 3:05 PM Will there be a run scored in the first inning Both starting pitchers must go for action. Game must go 1 inning for action. Max wager is $300.
205 Yes -105
206 No -125

[Panekkkk]

Notice to all:

May 07 and May 08 were both profitable (+37 and +62 more games with runs in the 1st inning or something like that). However, someone noted May 05 was negative (I calculated -17). If May is negative in '09, there is a chance that you lose your 4k investment right off the bat.

May of 05 was -17, 17 x 200 = -3400... Somebody else calculated -21, 21 x 200 = -4200 (broke)

Much of this then depends on a solid May (without the live chasing that is and assuming an average +100 odd for the YES)

[CashMoney]

Notice to all:

May 07 and May 08 were both profitable (+37 and +62 more games with runs in the 1st inning or something like that). However, someone noted May 05 was negative (I calculated -17). If May is negative in '09, there is a chance that you lose your 4k investment right off the bat.

May of 05 was -17, 17 x 200 = -3400... Somebody else calculated -21, 21 x 200 = -4200 (broke)

Much of this then depends on a solid May (without the live chasing that is and assuming an average +100 odd for the YES)

Incorrect. Your not taking into consideration the wins you would have as well. Say the record for May of 05 was 200 wins and 221 losses. At + 100

200 wins = $20,000
221 losses = -$22,100
Total loss of -$1,900

With a starting roll of $4K you would have still had a $1,900 roll for the month of June. Also considering that more often then not you're at even money or + money even with a losing record you would take a small hit or possibly be + money.

CK is the man

[Killer Chihuahua]

Incorrect. Your not taking into consideration the wins you would have as well. Say the record for May of 05 was 200 wins and 221 losses. At + 100

200 wins = $20,000
221 losses = -$22,100
Total loss of -$1,900

With a starting roll of $4K you would have still had a $1,900 roll for the month of June. Also considering that more often then not you're at even money or + money even with a losing record you would take a small hit or possibly be + money.

CK is the man

Panekkk is using 200$ a game, not 100$ like in your example which is the bet amount to bank roll ratio that CK suggested.....he is correct in that a -21 game month would kill your bankroll! just the chance we are all going to take

[Dexter]

ck - see post 212