MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**Alex Vaile** · 06-08-14, 03:42 PM

Come on twins!

**JMon** · 06-08-14, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Wow this query and hammer play getting worked so far. Astros rolling much to my dismay.

mind boggling for sure. Going to the monitoring list before I lose money on it

**Alex Vaile** · 06-09-14, 02:58 PM

Ya putting money on the twins can b tough. Well here's to a better day!
Any awesome looking queries for today?

**otunj** · 06-09-14, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by JMon

mind boggling for sure. Going to the monitoring list before I lose money on it

Odd question. Which one is the hammer play?

NEVERMIND. FIGURED IT OUT

**emceeaye** · 06-09-14, 11:18 PM

good one with High N

Here's a good one I came up with with a high N, and trying to increase win:loss ratio while still maintaining a good size N (i.e.,at least 200). This is because the low N ones often have low statistical power and are therefore not adequately reliable. If you're curious about the degree of reliability of low sample size queries with high win:loss ratio, google "statistical power" or something close.

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and HF

**hyahya** · 06-09-14, 11:43 PM

add line>-150 and things get much rosier.

**emceeaye** · 06-10-14, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by hyahya

add line>-150 and things get much rosier.

Thanks. The following one might be a little easier on our wallets though...couldn't keep it at N=200 but I'll play with it a little more to get it over 200 even if the result is at the expense of a few less win rate percentage points:

HF and p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(LOB)>.53+oA(LOB) and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and (WP, N=26)>(o:WP, N=26) and o:site streak<=-3 and s:QS

**JMon** · 06-10-14, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Here's a good one I came up with with a high N, and trying to increase win:loss ratio while still maintaining a good size N (i.e.,at least 200). This is because the low N ones often have low statistical power and are therefore not adequately reliable. If you're curious about the degree of reliability of low sample size queries with high win:loss ratio, google "statistical power" or something close.

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and HF

good work

add 15%roi, hitting at a 70%clip and only one losing year in dB. I added line parameter, conference foe and identified series game 2, 3, 4 and eliminated months 8, 9, 10 with maintaining a high number of games.

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and H and conference=o:conference and -215<=line<=-110 and 5>SG>1 and month<8

**emceeaye** · 06-10-14, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by JMon

good work

add 15%roi, hitting at a 70%clip and only one losing year in dB. I added line parameter, conference foe and identified series game 2, 3, 4 and eliminated months 8, 9, 10 with maintaining a high number of games.

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and H and conference=o:conference and -215<=line<=-110 and 5>SG>1 and month<8

Nice. I tweaked it a bit, eliminating line parameter but kept your other parameters. Has a 72% win rate and ROI is good as well.

p:LOB>po:LOB+4 and tA(LOB)>oA(LOB) and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and WP>o:WP and o:site streak<=-3 and conference=o:conference and 5>SG>1 and month<8

Or tweaked this way with over 200:

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(LOB)>.53+oA(LOB) and s:QS and line<-130 and WP>o:WP and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and HF

**tarosill** · 06-10-14, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Here's a good one I came up with with a high N, and trying to increase win:loss ratio while still maintaining a good size N (i.e.,at least 200). This is because the low N ones often have low statistical power and are therefore not adequately reliable. If you're curious about the degree of reliability of low sample size queries with high win:loss ratio, google "statistical power" or something close.

p:LOB>po:LOB+5 and tA(runs)/tA(hits)>oA(runs)/oA(hits) and tA(runs, N=11)>oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11)>oA(hits, N=11) and HF

This one is another possible version that I like.

HF and p:LOB > po:LOB + 5 and tA(runs, N=11) > oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11) > oA(hits, N=11) and streak = 1 and line > -160 and 1 < SG < 5

**Alex Vaile** · 06-10-14, 12:27 PM

Total query active today from Bases
H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and p: ou margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < o: ou streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31
Good results!

**emceeaye** · 06-10-14, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by tarosill

This one is another possible version that I like.

HF and p:LOB > po:LOB + 5 and tA(runs, N=11) > oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11) > oA(hits, N=11) and streak = 1 and line > -160 and 1 < SG < 5

Nice Tarosill. Thanks!

**Roadkill86** · 06-10-14, 05:22 PM

LOL wut?

team=Mariners and H and STDSERA<3 and o:STDSERA>5 and o:WP>=50

**Semper Fidelis** · 06-10-14, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Roadkill86

LOL wut?

team=Mariners and H and STDSERA<3 and o:STDSERA>5 and o:WP>=50

So that means we take the Yankees tonight?

**BasesLoaded314** · 06-11-14, 03:37 AM

(p:LOB - po:LOB) > 5 and (tA(runs) / tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) >
-.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 <
(tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA
< 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday
and o:starter rest < 10

**Alex Vaile** · 06-11-14, 12:13 PM

Total play by bases active:
season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak
> -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16
> op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and
os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11
and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and
team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors +
pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and
(op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors +
opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

**Alex Vaile** · 06-11-14, 12:21 PM

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 >line and os:SRA<7 and oss:SRA<9 and s:SRA<8 and ss:SRA!=0 and site streak<6 and op:BPRA<4

**JR007** · 06-11-14, 08:13 PM

**green7** · 06-12-14, 07:54 AM

Good find on the totals Alex V

Much appreciated....got the NYY/SM 6' at plus money.

Very nice!

Just a note.......UNDERs are 80-54 in NL DAY games this year so far.

In the history of the database, AL DAY games had about a 52% under rate and the NL games were about 50-50. Scoring is down,...there is a theory that when the weather warms up, the ball travels further which should yield more runs. I haven't seen an totals advantage with that in the database as the books and the linemakers do their homework too.

Away underdogs though do seem to do worse in hot weather.

Also, teams with >60 WP are poor plays, especially as favorites....as Away Favorites, it is a 5.9% percent return to go against such teams.

playoffs=0 and tA(W)>=.6 and C and game number>25 and AF

Versus home favorites it is a 4.8% return as a go against in conference games.

playoffs=0 and tA(W)>=.6 and C and game number>25 and HF

We've just seen San Fran lose 3 straight home games as favorites and the Athletics have lost 2 out of 3 from the Angels. Also the Blue Jays were flirting with the over 60 mark and have lost two straight series to the Cards and the Twins as big home favorites. Regression to the mean.

Meanwhile teams with a WP of <=42 are historically good as home dogs bringing a 2% ROI (use your favorite filters to improve return) in conference games.

playoffs=0 and tA(W)<=.42 and C and game number>25 and HD

**green7** · 06-12-14, 08:31 AM

As a side note

Betting 4 percent of your bankroll on any one game...and winning 10 units a month will increase your bankroll 4000% after 10 months. I calculated this by upping the wager at the end of each month to the new 4 percent from what the 4 percent of bankroll was the previous month.

Breaking that down further, to achieve that kind of an increase, we as bettors only have to win 2.5 units a week.

Say we had a mythical 10,000 dollars in our bankroll

We would be betting 400 dollars per game our first month.

If we won 10 units a month with a starting stake of 10,000

Month bankroll won balance at the end of the month

0 10,000 4,000 14,000
1 14,000 5,600 19,600
2 19,600 7,840 27,440
3 27,440 10,976 38,416
4 38,416 15,366.4 53,784.4
5 53,784.6 21,512.96 75,297.56
6 75,297.56 30,119.02 105,416.58
7 105,415.58 42,166.63 147.587.21
8 147,587.21 59,032.89 206,620.10
9 206,620.10 82,648.04 289,268.14
10 289,268.10 115,707.26 404,975.36

That's only less than a half unit a day....after two months our stake will almost have doubled...after 6 months it will have increased 10x, after 8 months our bankroll will have increased 20x and after 10 months, our bankroll will have increased to 40 times its initial value.

**posey** · 06-12-14, 10:36 AM

I have been playing around with the database quite frequently, but I wasn't able to set up a query which shows me e.g. a team's WP over their last 10 games. How do I do that?

**BasesLoaded314** · 06-12-14, 10:54 AM

tA(wins, N=10)

**posey** · 06-12-14, 11:02 AM

Ah okay, thank you, very much appreciated.

**JMon** · 06-12-14, 11:37 AM

AD and p:hits>=3 and p:runs=0 and season>=2013 and 9>total>7and SG=3

**emceeaye** · 06-12-14, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by BasesLoaded314

tA(wins, N=10)

Can someone please clarify terms for WP over the first 30 games of the season?

Thanks in advance.

**green7** · 06-12-14, 03:25 PM

games won out of last 10

tS(W, N=10)

Over past 30 games it is:

tS(W, N=30)

For the first 30 games, I don't know....probably Joe at sportsdatabase googlegroups would be able to help you.

**JMon** · 06-13-14, 07:44 AM

Originally posted by green7

tS(W, N=10)

Over past 30 games it is:

tS(W, N=30)

For the first 30 games, I don't know....probably Joe at sportsdatabase googlegroups would be able to help you.

can't you use the game number parameter?

**JMon** · 06-13-14, 07:44 AM

team=Pirates and A and p:HW and pp:HW and 20080527<=date

**JMon** · 06-13-14, 08:01 AM

team=White Sox and HF and FGS and p:errors=0 and pp:errors=0 and ppp:errors=0 and p:runs<=6

**otunj** · 06-13-14, 09:42 AM

Fade the Rays SU or fade Rays RL. Strong start to 2014

S(1@t:starter and t:site = away and to:team) is None and team = Rays and season = 2014 and o:WP < 55

SU: 6-15 (-2.33, 28.6%) avg line: -105.6 / -104.9 on / against: -$1,160 / +$1,048 ROI: -47.1% / +43.0%
RL: 4-17 (-2.83, 19.0%) avg line: 109.4 / -121.5 on / against: -$1,453 / +$1,392 ROI: -58.2% / +49.1%
OU: 8-12-1 (-0.55, 40.0%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$515 / +$310 ROI: -22.3% / +13.3%

**Alex Vaile** · 06-13-14, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by JMon

team=Pirates and A and p:HW and pp:HW and 20080527<=date

Here's to Miami today!

**Alex Vaile** · 06-13-14, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by JMon

team=White Sox and HF and FGS and p:errors=0 and pp:errors=0 and ppp:errors=0 and p:runs<=6

Quite the return on the totals in this one! Thanks JMON.

**posey** · 06-13-14, 11:45 AM

Not active today but sample size seems to be okay and it comes up from time to time:

93-103 (-0.36, 47.4%)	avg line: -115.7 / 105.5	on / against: -$2,736 / +$1,786	ROI: -11.6% / +8.5%
44-77 (-1.19, 36.4%)	avg line: 132.2 / -146.5	on / against: -$2,448 / +$1,825	ROI: -17.8% / +9.6%
91-99-6 (0.42, 47.9%)	avg total: 8.6	over / under: -$1,790 / -$100	ROI: -8.3% / -0.5%

**b1slickguy** · 06-13-14, 12:58 PM

season>=2011 and conference=AL and o:conference=NL and AF and 10>total>=7

**green7** · 06-13-14, 07:14 PM

versus a home favorite >=60 winning percentage

HF and game number > 30 and tA(W) >= .6 and not DIV and C and SG = 1 and playoffs = 0