MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**JMon** · 06-01-14, 05:11 PM

nicely done EMC and TAR

**JR007** · 06-01-14, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by JMon

been meaning to ask the getaway parameters of a under...and I will convert.

that's a tough one buddy, would guess the resting of key players, how fast the games are called, umpire records on getaway days, strike to ball ratio's.....probably beyond the reach of sdql.....nevertheless "unique" factors to that given day.....probably would need the overall record for the Thursday afternoon games as a start, but don't kill yourself over it....think that there is an overall edge there though

umpires have to catch planes as well

**JMon** · 06-01-14, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by JR007

that's a tough one buddy, would guess the resting of key players, how fast the games are called, umpire records on getaway days, strike to ball ratio's.....probably beyond the reach of sdql.....nevertheless "unique" factors to that given day.....probably would need the overall record for the Thursday afternoon games as a start, but don't kill yourself over it....think that there is an overall edge there though

umpires have planes as well

there was a fella that posted some basic parameters in your thread.

**JR007** · 06-01-14, 07:08 PM

as you can see 'statistical parameters' are a bit advanced for me

**posey** · 06-02-14, 10:46 AM

My bet of the day features the Mariners and King Felix against the Yankees and David Phelps. I am still using basic and simple queries. Of course the amount of queries for one single game is very high when testing certain parameters for one game. But as I said earlier I try to use this method to reduce the margin for error (or how you ever wanna call it) and reduce meaningless queries and focus on what was going on lately. Here are the ones for this game:
team = Yankees and H and season > 2013 and month > 4
team = Mariners and A and season > 2013 and month > 4
team = Mariners and o:STL and season > 2013 and month > 4
starter = Felix Hernandez and A and season > 2013
starter = David Phelps and season > 2013
starter = Felix Hernandez and o:team = Yankees and season > 2009 (especially look at the runs per game for the Yanks in this one!)
team = Mariners and A and o:team = Yankees and season > 2010
All of those queries point towards taking King Felix and the Mariners.

**tarosill** · 06-02-14, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by posey

My bet of the day features the Mariners and King Felix against the Yankees and David Phelps. I am still using basic and simple queries. Of course the amount of queries for one single game is very high when testing certain parameters for one game. But as I said earlier I try to use this method to reduce the margin for error (or how you ever wanna call it) and reduce meaningless queries and focus on what was going on lately. Here are the ones for this game:
team = Yankees and H and season > 2013 and month > 4
team = Mariners and A and season > 2013 and month > 4
team = Mariners and o:STL and season > 2013 and month > 4
starter = Felix Hernandez and A and season > 2013
starter = David Phelps and season > 2013
starter = Felix Hernandez and o:team = Yankees and season > 2009 (especially look at the runs per game for the Yanks in this one!)
team = Mariners and A and o:team = Yankees and season > 2010
All of those queries point towards taking King Felix and the Mariners.

Here is one that point towards NY Yankees.

H and p:HF and p:M8 = 1 and p:margin < -1 and SG = 1

Probably a no bet for me.

**nbilln** · 06-03-14, 04:35 AM

26-8 (2.09, 76.5%)	avg line: -150.9 / 138.7	on / against: +$1,550 / -$1,630	ROI: +30.3% / -47.9%
21-13 (0.59, 61.8%)	avg line: 140.0 / -151.9	on / against: +$1,536 / -$1,769	ROI: +45.1% / -34.3%
17-17-0 (2.21, 50.0%)	avg total: 9.5	over / under: -$140 / -$120	ROI: -3.7% / -3.2%

21-2 (3.04, 91.3%)	avg line: -136.5 / 126.5	on / against: +$1,820 / -$1,875	ROI: +57.6% / -78.8%
17-6 (2.07, 73.9%)	avg line: 135.1 / -147.2	on / against: +$1,773 / -$1,944	ROI: +73.3% / -56.0%
11-12-0 (0.39, 47.8%)	avg total: 9.5	over / under: -$190 / +$10	ROI: -7.5% / +0.4%

17-5 (3.82, 77.3%)	avg line: -142.7 / 132.7	on / against: +$959 / -$1,009	ROI: +30.8% / -45.9%
17-5 (2.32, 77.3%)	avg line: 144.7 / -157.2	on / against: +$1,996 / -$2,212	ROI: +90.7% / -64.0%
9-12-1 (-1.00, 42.9%)	avg total: 10.0	over / under: -$425 / +$195	ROI: -17.6% / +8.1%

look at the recent results for these.... wow.

**barryt** · 06-03-14, 10:23 AM

New to this: some questions.
in killer sports query results, sometime the starting pitchers names are in GREEN or RED. DITTO W/L results. What's the significance.?
i looked all over the killer site and couldn't find an explanation.
Can someone help me!
tx in anticipation
barryt

**otunj** · 06-03-14, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by nbilln

26-8 (2.09, 76.5%)	avg line: -150.9 / 138.7	on / against: +$1,550 / -$1,630	ROI: +30.3% / -47.9%
21-13 (0.59, 61.8%)	avg line: 140.0 / -151.9	on / against: +$1,536 / -$1,769	ROI: +45.1% / -34.3%
17-17-0 (2.21, 50.0%)	avg total: 9.5	over / under: -$140 / -$120	ROI: -3.7% / -3.2%

21-2 (3.04, 91.3%)	avg line: -136.5 / 126.5	on / against: +$1,820 / -$1,875	ROI: +57.6% / -78.8%
17-6 (2.07, 73.9%)	avg line: 135.1 / -147.2	on / against: +$1,773 / -$1,944	ROI: +73.3% / -56.0%
11-12-0 (0.39, 47.8%)	avg total: 9.5	over / under: -$190 / +$10	ROI: -7.5% / +0.4%

17-5 (3.82, 77.3%)	avg line: -142.7 / 132.7	on / against: +$959 / -$1,009	ROI: +30.8% / -45.9%
17-5 (2.32, 77.3%)	avg line: 144.7 / -157.2	on / against: +$1,996 / -$2,212	ROI: +90.7% / -64.0%
9-12-1 (-1.00, 42.9%)	avg total: 10.0	over / under: -$425 / +$195	ROI: -17.6% / +8.1%

look at the recent results for these.... wow.

Here's another that points to Rockies as the play

team = Rockies and F and 5 <= p: pitchers used and p:L and date >= 20120901

12-0 (3.00, 100.0%)	avg line: -142.8 / 132.8	on / against: +$1,200 / -$1,200	ROI: +70.7% / -100.0%
8-4 (1.50, 66.7%)	avg line: 138.4 / -150.3	on / against: +$763 / -$869	ROI: +63.3% / -47.9%
7-5-0 (1.29, 58.3%)	avg total: 9.7	over / under: +$180 / -$255	ROI: +13.8% / -19.1%

**Alex Vaile** · 06-03-14, 11:39 AM

Straight from the killer querys page active today
team=Royals and date>=20100709 and NGT and A and 6<=p:runs and p:NGT
Also a good one
team=Rangers and date>=20090921 and tA(runs, N=5)<2.5 and p:margin<=3

**tarosill** · 06-03-14, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by barryt

New to this: some questions.
in killer sports query results, sometime the starting pitchers names are in GREEN or RED. DITTO W/L results. What's the significance.?
i looked all over the killer site and couldn't find an explanation.
Can someone help me!
tx in anticipation
barryt

"W" in Green => margin= +1
"L" in Red => margin= -1

I'm not sure about starter's name, but I guess it has something to do with starter's earned runs in the referenced game.
Check out these queries.

H and margin = 1 and season = 2014
H and margin = -1 and season = 2014
H and QS = 1 and season = 2014
H and BS = 1 and season = 2014

**Alex Vaile** · 06-03-14, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by tarosill

"W" in Green => margin= +1
"L" in Red => margin= -1

I'm not sure about starter's name, but I guess it has something to do with starter's earned runs in the referenced game.
Check out these queries.

H and margin = 1 and season = 2014
H and margin = -1 and season = 2014
H and QS = 1 and season = 2014
H and BS = 1 and season = 2014

I got excited when I saw these queries but don't they just bring up all the 1 run games? It doesn't highlight active games for the day as far as I can see.

**Coach Potato** · 06-03-14, 03:51 PM

wats ur win/loss record?

**green7** · 06-03-14, 04:48 PM

Going versus good team series game 1 on road

A and game number > 30 and C and SG = 1 and not DIV and tA(W) > .6

versus Timmy and the Giants.....gets worse if they are a dog.

AD and game number > 30 and C and SG = 1 and not DIV and tA(W) > .6

**JMon** · 06-03-14, 05:57 PM

My rendition of the MLB Getaway Day. These games normally fall on Wednesday, Thursday and most predominantly, Sunday. Sunday will be the day I use within my situation(s) of this day. In short, a Getaway Day is the last game of series and the road team is leaving.

The basic logic behind a Getaway Day is resting starters, lack of motivation- looking to get home after playing a night game which ends with a day game, look-ahead situations, and end of starter rotation.

I will focus on two situations (a fade and under play) that relate to the Getaway Day. I will also list plays and track its progression. For ease of tracking I will name them Situation A and B.

Situation A: FADE

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play)

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
NL conference team
A favorite of 140 or below and a dog of 200 and below (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: FADE

2014: 11-19 (+513)
2013: 33-53 (+814)
2012: 31-55 (+1794)
2011: 25-65 (+3504)
2010: 32-61 (+2115)
2009: 42-53 (-5)
2008: 44-56 (+60)
2007: 36-69 (+2560)

Situation B: UNDER

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
Can NOT be a NL East team
Can NOT be in the month of April
Total from 10.5 to 7 (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: (O/U)

2014: 11-11-2 (-120)
2013: 37-81-2 (+4085)
2012: 48-62-7 (+930)
2011: 56-51-10 (-1190)
2010: 63-70-11 (+60)
2009: 62-80-2 (+1160)
2008: 62-71-4 (+260)
2007: 56-78-7 (+1590)
2006: 51-73-1 (+1615)
2005: 52-62-3 (+205)
2004: 46-64-5 (+1340)

(c)Jmon

**emceeaye** · 06-04-14, 12:36 AM

[QUOTE=JMon;21982453]My rendition of the MLB Getaway Day. These games normally fall on Wednesday, Thursday and most predominantly, Sunday. Sunday will be the day I use within my situation(s) of this day. In short, a Getaway Day is the last game of series and the road team is leaving.

The basic logic behind a Getaway Day is resting starters, lack of motivation- looking to get home after playing a night game which ends with a day game, look-ahead situations, and end of starter rotation.

I will focus on two situations (a fade and under play) that relate to the Getaway Day. I will also list plays and track its progression. For ease of tracking I will name them Situation A and B.

Situation A: FADE

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play)

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
NL conference team
A favorite of 140 or below and a dog of 200 and below (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: FADE

2014: 11-19 (+513)
2013: 33-53 (+814)
2012: 31-55 (+1794)
2011: 25-65 (+3504)
2010: 32-61 (+2115)
2009: 42-53 (-5)
2008: 44-56 (+60)
2007: 36-69 (+2560)

Situation B: UNDER

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
Can NOT be a NL East team
Can NOT be in the month of April
Total from 10.5 to 7 (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: (O/U)

2014: 11-11-2 (-120)
2013: 37-81-2 (+4085)
2012: 48-62-7 (+930)
2011: 56-51-10 (-1190)
2010: 63-70-11 (+60)
2009: 62-80-2 (+1160)
2008: 62-71-4 (+260)
2007: 56-78-7 (+1590)
2006: 51-73-1 (+1615)
2005: 52-62-3 (+205)
2004: 46-64-5 (+1340)

(c)Jmon

[/QUOTEJ

Jmon,
excellent-Thank you!!

**emceeaye** · 06-04-14, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by JMon

My rendition of the MLB Getaway Day. These games normally fall on Wednesday, Thursday and most predominantly, Sunday. Sunday will be the day I use within my situation(s) of this day. In short, a Getaway Day is the last game of series and the road team is leaving.

The basic logic behind a Getaway Day is resting starters, lack of motivation- looking to get home after playing a night game which ends with a day game, look-ahead situations, and end of starter rotation.

I will focus on two situations (a fade and under play) that relate to the Getaway Day. I will also list plays and track its progression. For ease of tracking I will name them Situation A and B.

Situation A: FADE

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play)

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
NL conference team
A favorite of 140 or below and a dog of 200 and below (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: FADE

2014: 11-19 (+513)
2013: 33-53 (+814)
2012: 31-55 (+1794)
2011: 25-65 (+3504)
2010: 32-61 (+2115)
2009: 42-53 (-5)
2008: 44-56 (+60)
2007: 36-69 (+2560)

Situation B: UNDER

Parameters (these must be met to consider a play

Last game of a three game series
Road team
Day game
Played a night game the day before
Sunday game
Can NOT be a NL East team
Can NOT be in the month of April
Total from 10.5 to 7 (* lines are dependent on database lines)

Tracking: (O/U)

2014: 11-11-2 (-120)
2013: 37-81-2 (+4085)
2012: 48-62-7 (+930)
2011: 56-51-10 (-1190)
2010: 63-70-11 (+60)
2009: 62-80-2 (+1160)
2008: 62-71-4 (+260)
2007: 56-78-7 (+1590)
2006: 51-73-1 (+1615)
2005: 52-62-3 (+205)
2004: 46-64-5 (+1340)

(c)Jmon

Jmon, thanks buddy!!

**tarosill** · 06-04-14, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

I got excited when I saw these queries but don't they just bring up all the 1 run games? It doesn't highlight active games for the day as far as I can see.

Yes, you are right. Those queries cannot be used for predictions, since the game parameters margin, QS and BS are not known until the end of the game.
If we want to use the search query for prediction the outcome of the game, all game parameters must be known before the game start.
For example the queries:

H and p:margin = -1 and pp:margin = -1 and ppp:margin = -1 and pppp:margin > 0

H and p:runs = 2 and pp:runs = 2 and ppp:runs = 2 and pppp:margin > 0

can be used for prediction since all game parameters are known before the start of the game.

**barryt** · 06-04-14, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by tarosill

"W" in Green => margin= +1
"L" in Red => margin= -1

I'm not sure about starter's name, but I guess it has something to do with starter's earned runs in the referenced game.
Check out these queries.

H and margin = 1 and season = 2014
H and margin = -1 and season = 2014
H and QS = 1 and season = 2014
H and BS = 1 and season = 2014

tx for that.
i was surprised though that the H and BS=1 didn't have all red pitchers as QS=1 had all green pitchers. So I conclude that green=QS but red is not just BS. Of course I couldn't find a definition for the shortcut BS and was assuming it was the opposite of QS i.e. Bad Start.

**b1slickguy** · 06-05-14, 05:24 PM

Not active tonight.

starter= 'Max Scherzer' and SIP<9 and s:starter strike outs>s:starter hits and s:A and season>=2010 and H

With JMon's help I was able to piece this together. Thank you, Jmon! MLB is my weakest sport using sdql, but increasing my knowledge with this thread. Thank you all. Try inserting other pitchers, switching both of the home/away parameters and increasing the number of seasons. Greinke, Felix H. and Kershaw have some interesting results.
Good luck.

**JMon** · 06-05-14, 05:59 PM

Slicker, nice job

**sunshine11** · 06-05-14, 06:17 PM

Hi what are results of the 4 L streak. Without filters and add only play the top twenty teams? Team has to
won at least 2 of 3 before the losing streak. I'm curious. Not good I guess. I've been lucky so far? Thanks

**emceeaye** · 06-05-14, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by b1slickguy

Not active tonight.

starter= 'Max Scherzer' and SIP<9 and s:starter strike outs>s:starter hits and s:A and season>=2010 and H

With JMon's help I was able to piece this together. Thank you, Jmon! MLB is my weakest sport using sdql, but increasing my knowledge with this thread. Thank you all. Try inserting other pitchers, switching both of the home/away parameters and increasing the number of seasons. Greinke, Felix H. and Kershaw have some interesting results.
Good luck.

Nice, Slicker and Jmon!

I went ahead and took the s:SO>s:starter hits term and it gave me food for thought to come up with this below. It has a good WP, but welcome any tweaks that would improve it.

WP>12+o:WP and s:starter strike outs>=.81*so:hits and s:A and HF and season>=2010 and s:SRA<6 and tA(BPRA, N=6)<2 and s:SPT/s:SIP<=15 and s:SPT/so:at bats<3.9

Now, if you lower the difference between WP and o:WP to st like WP>4+o:WP, then the sample size gets comfortably larger despite a decrement in win:loss percentage. Although not as compelling, WP is still acceptable and frequency of plays will increase.

**tarosill** · 06-06-14, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by sunshine11

Hi what are results of the 4 L streak. Without filters and add only play the top twenty teams? Team has to
won at least 2 of 3 before the losing streak. I'm curious. Not good I guess. I've been lucky so far? Thanks

I'm not sure about the top twenty teams but generally results are not good for the previous seasons. However this season is an exception.

streak = -4 and SG = 3 and season = 2014

This is a good example how results may vary from season to season.

**posey** · 06-06-14, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by tarosill

I'm not sure about the top twenty teams but generally results are not good for the previous seasons. However this season is an exception.

streak = -4 and SG = 3 and season = 2014

This is a good example how results may vary from season to season.

Addition to that: we still are only at the beginning of June. This season has a lot of games left. I would assume that the overall trend of the season will be similar to previous seasons. I think Sunshine was more or less lucky, sadly.

**JMon** · 06-06-14, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by posey

Addition to that: we still are only at the beginning of June. This season has a lot of games left. I would assume that the overall trend of the season will be similar to previous seasons. I think Sunshine was more or less lucky, sadly.

I really should not be laughing...for fukk sake the tool was demanding pics in our thread. lol

**JMon** · 06-07-14, 09:53 AM

A and 130>=line>=-125 and tA(HR)<=.9 and S(o:SHRA)>=1 and STDSERA<=3.2 and t:conference=AL and 2007<=season and SG<3 and rest=0 and team=Indians

**Alex Vaile** · 06-07-14, 10:49 AM

Thanks JMON
From Bases a total play with 3 games active today.
month = 6 and season > 2009 and F and (SG = 2 or SG = 3) and day != Sunday and 14 > p:hits > 3 and 10.01 > total > 6.49 and op:hits < 17 and pp:hits < 12 and opp:hits > 3 and ppp:hits > 2 and 9 > os:SSO > 0 and oss:SSO < 7 and 15 > streak > -4 and 5 > o:streak > -6 and 10.01 > p:total > 6.49 and o: ou streak > -5 and 2 > (tA(runs) + oA(runs) - total) > -.6 and team!=Astros and team!=Brewers and o:team!=Rockies and o:team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Marlins

**JMon** · 06-08-14, 08:48 AM

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line>=-140 and SG>1 and team=Astros and 2008<=season

**JMon** · 06-08-14, 08:55 AM

ref post #750

Situation A: FADE the following teams

Wash -125
NYM +130
ATL -102

**JMon** · 06-08-14, 10:15 AM

ref post#750

Situation B: UNDER

CHW UN 8
Oak UN 8.5
BOS UN 7.5

**emceeaye** · 06-08-14, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by JMon

ref post#750

Situation B: UNDER

CHW UN 8
Oak UN 8.5
BOS UN 7.5

Thanks Jmon!
Curious, what unders on Mets, Braves and Padres, which were the other teams suggested by the query?

**Alex Vaile** · 06-08-14, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by JMon

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line>=-140 and SG>1 and team=Astros and 2008<=season

Hammer play also active in this one pointing to same outcome

**JMon** · 06-08-14, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Thanks Jmon!
Curious, what unders on Mets, Braves and Padres, which were the other teams suggested by the query?

sorry I'm not following

**Alex Vaile** · 06-08-14, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by JMon

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line>=-140 and SG>1 and team=Astros and 2008<=season

Wow this query and hammer play getting worked so far. Astros rolling much to my dismay.