MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**posey** · 05-27-14, 05:58 AM

5-20 (-2.36, 20.0%)	avg line: 137.6 / -152.2	on / against: -$1,413 / +$1,373	ROI: -54.6% / +35.2%
14-11 (-1.22, 56.0%)	avg line: -138.0 / 126.6	on / against: -$50 / -$74	ROI: -1.4% / -2.8%
8-13-4 (-0.06, 38.1%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$635 / +$400	ROI: -23.1% / +14.5%

**barryt** · 05-27-14, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by nbilln

16-5 (1.24, 76.2%)	avg line: -138.8 / 126.5	on / against: +$924 / -$974	ROI: +31.0% / -45.1%
10-3 (0.27, 76.9%)	avg line: 144.8 / -160.0	on / against: +$1,184 / -$1,344	ROI: +87.7% / -64.9%
6-12-3 (-0.55, 33.3%)	avg total: 8.9	over / under: -$675 / +$545	ROI: -29.8% / +23.1%

wow look at this

after yesterday

SU: 17-5 (1.59, 77.3%) avg line: -138.7 / 126.4 on / against: +$1,024 / -$1,074 ROI: +33.1% / -47.5%
RL: 11-3 (0.79, 78.6%) avg line: 145.1 / -160.3 on / against: +$1,370 / -$1,547 ROI: +94.5% / -68.0%
OU: 7-12-3 (-0.50, 36.8%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$575 / +$425 ROI: -24.3% / +17.2%

But, I presume, there were 8 pushes on the RL. And only 22 opportunities lifetime , about 2 a year. With my luck, I would be too busy or sick those days. LOL...and the SG=1 is unnecessary: No 0-0 final score in MLB...lol...

Ps run line usually 1.5 so guess there aren't 8 pushes any idea why the discrepancy ?

**posey** · 05-27-14, 06:38 AM

That's real thunder.

10-1 (2.18, 90.9%)	avg line: 114.8 / -126.4	on / against: +$1,147 / -$1,252	ROI: +97.0% / -85.2%
9-2 (2.59, 81.8%)	avg line: -108.9 / -103.2	on / against: +$811 / -$838	ROI: +56.5% / -60.1%
3-6-2 (-1.00, 33.3%)	avg total: 7.7	over / under: -$345 / +$280	ROI: -28.6% / +23.0%

6-1 (3.14, 85.7%)	avg line: -156.5 / 142.8	on / against: +$420 / -$430	ROI: +36.9% / -61.4%
2-1 (2.50, 66.7%)	avg line: 164.7 / -179.0	on / against: +$219 / -$247	ROI: +73.0% / -46.0%
4-3-0 (0.29, 57.1%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: +$75 / -$110	ROI: +9.4% / -14.8%

**barryt** · 05-27-14, 07:15 AM

[QUOTE=posey;21931983]

23-7 (1.60, 76.7%)	avg line: -124.7 / 113.8	on / against: +$1,505 / -$1,585	ROI: +39.0% / -49.5%
11-13 (0.88, 45.8%)	avg line: 126.6 / -140.8	on / against: +$116 / -$287	ROI: +4.2% / -8.0%
13-17-0 (0.02, 43.3%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$620 / +$335	ROI: -18.2% / +10.5%

11-2 since 2010.[/QUOTE

this SDQL is a new toy for me and have some questions. Here's 2 that apply here.
there are 30 results, but only 24 on the RL. What happened to other 6 ? RL is usually 1.5 , so they wouldn't be pushes!
This is an interesting stat, but very difficult to apply in future. It really requires terrific record keeping and only occurs about 3 x per year. Does it apply today?
i guess you can save it in 'my trends' at Killer?
rsvp if you have time.
tx
barryt

**barryt** · 05-27-14, 07:40 AM

SU: 5-20 (-2.36, 20.0%) avg line: 137.6 / -152.2 on / against: -$1,413 / +$1,373 ROI: -54.6% / +35.2%
RL: 14-11 (-1.22, 56.0%) avg line: -138.0 / 126.6 on / against: -$50 / -$74 ROI: -1.4% / -2.8%

lot of 1 run wins by philly. 9? New at this but when the RL and SU line are at odds maybe one shouldn't put too much faith in the trend continuing?
barryt

**posey** · 05-27-14, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by barryt

this SDQL is a new toy for me and have some questions. Here's 2 that apply here.
there are 30 results, but only 24 on the RL. What happened to other 6 ? RL is usually 1.5 , so they wouldn't be pushes!
This is an interesting stat, but very difficult to apply in future. It really requires terrific record keeping and only occurs about 3 x per year. Does it apply today?
i guess you can save it in 'my trends' at Killer?
rsvp if you have time.
tx
barryt

Yes it does apply today. As you see in the last line of the table when you use the query @ killersports.com, the query shows the game:

May 27, 2014

Tue

home

Phillies

Cole Hamels - L

Rockies

Jorge De La Rosa - L

-118

7.0

To be honest I don't know why there are fewer games tracked with run line compared to overall.
Of course it's difficult to apply in the future, but I look for those kind of occurences. I think you can save those queries at 'my queries', but I don't do it, I simply use bookmarks in my browser for it.

Regarding 1-run-wins: to be honest I don't care for that. A win is a win is a win. A research at hardballtimes stated the following for 2010 and 2011:

As you can see, a team’s record in one-run games is very much correlated with a team’s overall win percentage. The color of each data point corresponds to the team’s Pythagoras record. While we see a linear relationship, there are clear outliers, mainly in the area below 0.500.

The better a team, the more one-run games occur. Of course we talk about GAMES and not WINS here. But in the end what matters to me is the ROI%. It would be relevant for me if I thought about playing the RL, which I don't.
You also have to take into account that I always post more than 1 relevant query for a game. Doing this I try to reduce margin for error, so to say.

**posey** · 05-27-14, 08:40 AM

Athletics

13-3 (2.62, 81.2%)	avg line: -136.8 / 124.4	on / against: +$945 / -$985	ROI: +42.5% / -59.7%
5-4 (1.28, 55.6%)	avg line: 135.9 / -145.8	on / against: +$253 / -$292	ROI: +27.8% / -22.3%
7-8-1 (-0.78, 46.7%)	avg total: 9.4	over / under: -$175 / +$40	ROI: -10.1% / +2.2%

35-13 (2.19, 72.9%)	avg line: -146.2 / 134.9	on / against: +$1,613 / -$1,743	ROI: +22.9% / -36.3%
12-16 (0.32, 42.9%)	avg line: 143.3 / -156.2	on / against: +$232 / -$389	ROI: +8.3% / -8.9%
20-26-2 (-0.59, 43.5%)	avg total: 9.2	over / under: -$865 / +$375	ROI: -16.5% / +7.1%

Didn't do well last year, but otherwise pretty consistent.

**posey** · 05-27-14, 09:31 AM

Lester liking the under on the road, so do the Braves at home

11-3 (1.93, 78.6%)	avg line: -117.5 / 107.5	on / against: +$742 / -$822	ROI: +42.6% / -53.5%
8-4 (1.42, 66.7%)	avg line: -114.2 / 102.1	on / against: +$508 / -$542	ROI: +31.9% / -38.0%
3-9-2 (-0.86, 25.0%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$645 / +$570	ROI: -43.1% / +36.0%

8-7 (0.60, 53.3%)	avg line: -109.6 / -100.4	on / against: +$17 / -$107	ROI: +1.0% / -6.6%
9-6 (0.30, 60.0%)	avg line: -113.6 / -100.2	on / against: +$372 / -$434	ROI: +17.8% / -22.6%
2-11-2 (-1.57, 15.4%)	avg total: 7.9	over / under: -$1,005 / +$885	ROI: -60.5% / +54.1%

10-6 (0.44, 62.5%)	avg line: -136.0 / 126.0	on / against: +$209 / -$259	ROI: +9.4% / -16.0%
5-11 (-0.88, 31.2%)	avg line: 145.5 / -159.7	on / against: -$375 / +$293	ROI: -22.6% / +10.8%
4-10-2 (-1.38, 28.6%)	avg total: 7.1	over / under: -$670 / +$565	ROI: -38.7% / +31.2%

6-2 (1.88, 75.0%)	avg line: -109.3 / -100.7	on / against: +$397 / -$437	ROI: +43.0% / -49.5%
5-3 (1.88, 62.5%)	avg line: -119.2 / 104.0	on / against: +$196 / -$239	ROI: +16.8% / -21.3%
3-5-0 (0.19, 37.5%)	avg total: 7.2	over / under: -$230 / +$155	ROI: -27.2% / +16.9%

21-8 (1.59, 72.4%)	avg line: -155.7 / 141.7	on / against: +$990 / -$1,090	ROI: +21.7% / -37.6%
13-16 (0.09, 44.8%)	avg line: 146.7 / -160.0	on / against: +$155 / -$287	ROI: +5.3% / -6.0%
9-19-1 (-0.48, 32.1%)	avg total: 7.2	over / under: -$1,150 / +$890	ROI: -36.8% / +27.2%

**barryt** · 05-27-14, 12:37 PM

Tx. For the kind reply.
Just would add
if the run line mimicked the Money line, my confidence would be higher.
bookmarking is ok, but as a time saver ' my trends ' alerts to the reoccurrence. Book marking by team would be useful.
tx again
barryt

**posey** · 05-27-14, 12:50 PM

I think you can make certain folders (e.g. for all teams a folder) for your bookmarks in nearly all modern browers.

Regarding RL mimicking the ML I do know what you mean, be sure of that. I simply don't look too much into that, but that doesn't mean the you shouldn't.

BOL.

**JMon** · 05-27-14, 01:42 PM

Friends the database for mlb started tracking ml's in 2004. RLs did not start being tracked until 2007, explaining the number of games discrepancy. One can see this by typing 'and season' at the end of a query and sort by year

**JMon** · 05-27-14, 04:06 PM

FYI...Hammer play is active tonight

**Alex Vaile** · 05-27-14, 04:20 PM

Thanks JMON I'm on it!

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-27-14, 11:27 PM

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 >line

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 >line and os:SRA<7 and oss:SRA<9 and s:SRA<8 and ss:SRA!=0 and site streak<6 and op:BPRA<4

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 > line and os:SRA < 7 and oss:SRA < 9 and s:SRA < 8 and ss:SRA != 0 and site streak < 6 and p:margin > -4 and 1.6 > STDSWHIP > 1.0 and op:BPRA<4

month = 6 and season > 2009 and F and (SG = 2 or SG = 3) and day != Sunday and 14 > p:hits > 3 and 10.01 > total > 6.49 and op:hits < 17 and pp:hits < 12 and opp:hits > 3 and ppp:hits > 2 and 9 > os:SSO > 0 and oss:SSO < 7 and 15 > streak > -4 and 5 > o:streak > -6 and 10.01 > p:total > 6.49 and o

u streak > -5 and 2 > (tA(runs) + oA(runs) - total) > -.6 and team!=Astros and team!=Brewers and o:team!=Rockies and o:team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Marlins

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 04:28 AM

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak
> -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16
> op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and
os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11
and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and
team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors +
pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and
(op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors +
opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

**Dougie_Fre$h** · 05-28-14, 04:49 AM

You need to be freaking Matt Damon in Goodwill Hunting to get this Sh1t. Anyone care to explain this system in easy terms?

I myself have my own system... 36-15-1 so far in Baseball and ytd:201-117-3 overall

Would love to have some input for you guys.

**JMon** · 05-28-14, 06:48 AM

looking at the Philly game last night and wanted to see how a team did after having more hits and team left on base then their oppt and still lose by a margin. Couple of losing years, but still nice results fading a fav in this spot.

Not active tonight.

-5<=p:margin<=-3 and p:hits>po:hits and p:TLOB>po:TLOB and -205<=line<=-115 and total<10.5 and SG<4 and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday

**barryt** · 05-28-14, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by JMon

Friends the database for mlb started tracking ml's in 2004. RLs did not start being tracked until 2007, explaining the number of games discrepancy. One can see this by typing 'and season' at the end of a query and sort by year

Tx Jmon
barryt

**b1slickguy** · 05-28-14, 07:47 AM

Only a 27 game sample, but fair results.
Good luck.

AD and p:hits>=3 and p:runs=0 and 9>total>7and SG=3 and season>=2013

**Alex Vaile** · 05-28-14, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by Dougie_Fre$h

You need to be freaking Matt Damon in Goodwill Hunting to get this Sh1t. Anyone care to explain this system in easy terms?

I myself have my own system... 36-15-1 so far in Baseball and ytd:201-117-3 overall

Would love to have some input for you guys.

There is a database across the road that these querys are entered into. This language is defined using a glossary of terms that speak to the many different situations that a baseball game has init. Google the term sdql database and you can learn about the querys. What's your formula about, I see you ve been on a tear lately.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-28-14, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by BasesLoaded314

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 >line

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 >line and os:SRA<7 and oss:SRA<9 and s:SRA<8 and ss:SRA!=0 and site streak<6 and op:BPRA<4

month = 6 and F and o:streak = 1 and SG != 1 and -120 > line and os:SRA < 7 and oss:SRA < 9 and s:SRA < 8 and ss:SRA != 0 and site streak < 6 and p:margin > -4 and 1.6 > STDSWHIP > 1.0 and op:BPRA<4

month = 6 and season > 2009 and F and (SG = 2 or SG = 3) and day != Sunday and 14 > p:hits > 3 and 10.01 > total > 6.49 and op:hits < 17 and pp:hits < 12 and opp:hits > 3 and ppp:hits > 2 and 9 > os:SSO > 0 and oss:SSO < 7 and 15 > streak > -4 and 5 > o:streak > -6 and 10.01 > p:total > 6.49 and o

u streak > -5 and 2 > (tA(runs) + oA(runs) - total) > -.6 and team!=Astros and team!=Brewers and o:team!=Rockies and o:team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Marlins

Bases, I see you have some awesome querys you've put out lately but most focus on June. Any querys that are active for what's left of May?

**Alex Vaile** · 05-28-14, 10:54 AM

season >= 2014 and A and (-105 <= line <= 185) and p:AL and pp:AL and op:W and opp:W and SG=3 and o:WP>50 and WP<50.
This query active today. Good returns

**The Prairie** · 05-28-14, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Dougie_Fre$h

You need to be freaking Matt Damon in Goodwill Hunting to get this Sh1t. Anyone care to explain this system in easy terms?

I myself have my own system... 36-15-1 so far in Baseball and ytd:201-117-3 overall

Would love to have some input for you guys.

Care to share your parameters? Maybe your "system" could be entered into the database to see previous year's results.

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Bases, I see you have some awesome querys you've put out lately but most focus on June. Any querys that are active for what's left of May?

I don't have much for may but heres what I have saved:

DIV and D and p:W and 40 < o:WP < 50 and season >= 2010 and line <= 166 and month = 5
WP > 50 and H and 165 > line >= 100 and o:WP > 50 and SG < 4 and month = 5
month = 5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110)
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110) and s:SRA<6
H and -185>line>=-235 and Sum(o:earned runs-starter earned runs@team and season)/Sum(9-starter innings pitched@team and season)<=3.75 and month=5 and 2008<=season and conference=o:conference and total<10.5
WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and A
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110) and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA!=0 and day!=Wednesday and F
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-131) and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA!=0 and day!=Wednesday and F
month=5 and streak = -4 and 0<o:streak<3 and D

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 02:22 PM

oops all those -6110's replace with -6 < o: streak<-1 and ( line>110

**Alex Vaile** · 05-28-14, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by BasesLoaded314

I don't have much for may but heres what I have saved:

DIV and D and p:W and 40 < o:WP < 50 and season >= 2010 and line <= 166 and month = 5
WP > 50 and H and 165 > line >= 100 and o:WP > 50 and SG < 4 and month = 5
month = 5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110)
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110) and s:SRA<6
H and -185>line>=-235 and Sum(o:earned runs-starter earned runs@team and season)/Sum(9-starter innings pitched@team and season)<=3.75 and month=5 and 2008<=season and conference=o:conference and total<10.5
WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and A
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-110) and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA!=0 and day!=Wednesday and F
month=5 and streak = 2 and -6<o:streak<-1 and (line>110 or line<-131) and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA!=0 and day!=Wednesday and F
month=5 and streak = -4 and 0<o:streak<3 and D

Right on Bases! Thanks

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 04:35 PM

H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and p: ou margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8 < o: ou streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31

**JMon** · 05-28-14, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by BasesLoaded314

H and month > 5 and season>2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8>(s:SRA-os:SRA)>-4 and (p:hits + os:walks)<15 and month!=8 and s:SRA<6 and os:SRA<5 and 30.7>(p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP)>18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP)>19.4 and total>6.4 and p: ou margin>-6.6 and streak<5 and o:streak<6 and -8<o: ou streak<4 and os:SPT<123 and team!=Twins and team!=Red Sox and o:team!=Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO)>9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO)<26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO +osssss:SSO)>13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO +ossss:SSO)<31

nice !

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 04:46 PM

edited so that it displays correctly now. theres 2 spaces before "ou" that need to be removed

**JMon** · 05-28-14, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

season >= 2014 and A and (-105 <= line <= 185) and p:AL and pp:AL and op:W and opp:W and SG=3 and o:WP>50 and WP<50.
This query active today. Good returns

very small sample; but look how the reds do with starting Baily when trying to avoid a three game sweep in a three game series on the road. Been contemplating Reds all day....uggh

starter=Homer Bailey and A and p:L and pp:L and SG=SGS=SG=3

**barryt** · 05-28-14, 05:59 PM

Gets better but smaller sample if you extend to opp:W for Blue Jays and Dodgers and ppp:L for Reds

**BasesLoaded314** · 05-28-14, 10:05 PM

AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2

**sballen** · 05-29-14, 12:15 AM

Where can i access the query? I didn't see a link on the first page. Is this query familiar to sql language? Thanks in advance.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-29-14, 12:25 AM

Google the term SDQL database and it will show u where to go

**Alex Vaile** · 05-29-14, 12:27 AM

Reds win!! Good thing for your querys guys. Thanks for putting out the info!