MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

10-2 (+8.57) Post season

Play KC Royals -103



SDQL: Fading Giants here. Since 2013, this playoff specific spot is 10-2 (3-1 this year) with an average margin of victory of 2.9 runs.

(s:SRA + ss:SRA) = 3 and A and playoffs = 1 and season>2009 and os:SRA!=0

SDQL: Since the 2011 season we have seen home dogs of 160 or less in playoff games go 18-6 SU (4-0 this season) against a team that has more than 92 wins. Royals won in this spot back on Oct 14th of this year. Note RL is 21-3, but is a bit juicy for me to play.

HD and line<=160 and playoffs=1 and 2011<=season and o:wins>92

BOL if you decide to play!

[JMon]

I'm a little gun shy after that brutal loss yesterday.

But came with this a bit ago and wanted to see fellow miner's thoughts on this rather simple playoff specific spot. The basis is we have a home team, in the playoffs, coming of an embarrassing loss of 5 or more runs at home. It is a small sample but has happened at least once since 2004. We see teams coming back strong winning their next game at a 66.7% clip.

Now, if you eliminate the important SG=4 (motivational edge from either team) from the equation it hits at a 73.3% clip.

Finally, being down one game at home this almost becomes a "must win" if you will, as we see a look ahead road game coming up. No team want to be down 0-2 going on the road in a playoff game. We reference this parameter by using n:A. Now we see the win percentage jump to 84.6%

SDQL

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4 and n:A


KC Royals -120

[Alex Vaile]

I'm a little gun shy after that brutal loss yesterday.

But came with this a bit ago and wanted to see fellow miner's thoughts on this rather simple playoff specific spot. The basis is we have a home team, in the playoffs, coming of an embarrassing loss of 5 or more runs at home. It is a small sample but has happened at least once since 2004. We see teams coming back strong winning their next game at a 66.7% clip.

Now, if you eliminate the important SG=4 (motivational edge from either team) from the equation it hits at a 73.3% clip.

Finally, being down one game at home this almost becomes a "must win" if you will, as we see a look ahead road game coming up. No team want to be down 0-2 going on the road in a playoff game. We reference this parameter by using n:A. Now we see the win percentage jump to 84.6%

SDQL

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4 and n:A


KC Royals -120

Although your queries were strong, I couldn't pull the trigger against my hometown Giants. And now it's even more pressure on royals. If things go bad early do they start pressing? These queries for today have limited sample size and Peavy been real good lately, but against AL teams he wasn't great.

Why aren't Royals favored by more? Being that it us a "must win? I'm just curious. I'm thinking today is the day for a Royals too as none of the a giants have seen Ventura before. Best of luck JMon!

[Alex Vaile]

Dr. M

TAKE UNDER 7 -110

team= Royals and p:margin <=-5 and p:BL=0 and SG<SGS and date >= 20130501

[JMon]

Although your queries were strong, I couldn't pull the trigger against my hometown Giants. And now it's even more pressure on royals. If things go bad early do they start pressing? These queries for today have limited sample size and Peavy been real good lately, but against AL teams he wasn't great.

Why aren't Royals favored by more? Being that it us a "must win? I'm just curious. I'm thinking today is the day for a Royals too as none of the a giants have seen Ventura before. Best of luck JMon!

I think most of line has to do with a rookie pitching in game two of the World Series, but has moved a lot since opening.. I think I will take shot on the Royals again tonight...cheers!

[Alex Vaile]

Good win JMon! I went with it tonite just too much on the line for KC

[emceeaye]

I'm a little gun shy after that brutal loss yesterday.

But came with this a bit ago and wanted to see fellow miner's thoughts on this rather simple playoff specific spot. The basis is we have a home team, in the playoffs, coming of an embarrassing loss of 5 or more runs at home. It is a small sample but has happened at least once since 2004. We see teams coming back strong winning their next game at a 66.7% clip.

Now, if you eliminate the important SG=4 (motivational edge from either team) from the equation it hits at a 73.3% clip.

Finally, being down one game at home this almost becomes a "must win" if you will, as we see a look ahead road game coming up. No team want to be down 0-2 going on the road in a playoff game. We reference this parameter by using n:A. Now we see the win percentage jump to 84.6%

SDQL

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4

H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4 and n:A


KC Royals -120

Nicely articulated rationale, Jmon. And nice support for it with a series of queries...I wish I would've had the time to take a look at this post yesterday.

Nice one!

[JMon]

Good win JMon! I went with it tonite just too much on the line for KC

Nicely articulated rationale, Jmon. And nice support for it with a series of queries...I wish I would've had the time to take a look at this post yesterday.

Nice one!

Thanks guys

[JMon]

11-3 (+8.54) 2014 Post season

Play SF Giants -127, gm 3

SDQL: Giants 6-0 SU in this spot since '07 (1-0 this season)- if you recall we won on them in this spot back on Oct. 14th, Hudson vs. Lackey. All playoffs teams are 11-0 SU (ave margin of victory 3.5 runs) since '09.

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and 2007<=season and total>6.5 and team=Giants

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and 2009<=season and total>6.5 and playoffs=1

SDQL; fading Royals in this spot. Playoff teams are 4-24 since 2008 (1-2 this season), losing by an average margin of 2 runs.

playoffs=1 and STDSERA<=2.00 and A and (SG=3 or SG=2 or SG=6 or SG=7) and 2008<=season

[emceeaye]

11-3 (+8.54) 2014 Post season

Play SF Giants -127, gm 3

SDQL: Giants 6-0 SU in this spot since '07 (1-0 this season)- if you recall we won on them in this spot back on Oct. 14th, Hudson vs. Lackey. All playoffs teams are 11-0 SU (ave margin of victory 3.5 runs) since '09.

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and 2007<=season and total>6.5 and team=Giants

HF and p:A and -7 < p:margin < 0 and tS(W, N=12) > 6 and 0 < s:SRA < 5 and 2009<=season and total>6.5 and playoffs=1

SDQL; fading Royals in this spot. Playoff teams are 4-24 since 2008 (1-2 this season), losing by an average margin of 2 runs.

playoffs=1 and STDSERA<=2.00 and A and (SG=3 or SG=2 or SG=6 or SG=7) and 2008<=season

Great rational eand queries...I'm just a little concerned about Hudson who has a losing record on the year, and whose ERA practically doubled post-all star break. I think his one past outing against KC he gave up 4 runs. He gave up 13 runs in his past 4 outings, and 4 in his last outing which was against Cards.

However, as JMON is pointing out, situationally, a lot of evidence points to Giants...difficult one.

[Alex Vaile]

Gotta roll Giants. One thing to consider is the loss of the DH for KC and how that affects their lineup. I heard some great stats today about the recent AL teams in the world series and their lack of success in NL parks.

[Alex Vaile]

Well it was a well played game and I was wrong about the the lack of DH being a factor. Giants had some chances but couldn't get the biggest hits.

[JMon]

11-4 (+7.27) 2014 Post season

Play KC Royals -140

SDQL: Fade Giants here. Note the important part of the query where the bull pen gets rocked for 4+ runs. Giants are 2-14 in this role since 2009.

sA(SHRA) <= .5 and p:BPRA >= 4 and line >= -140 and SG > 1 and team=Giants and 2009<=season

SDQL: Play on Royals. This playoff specific spot is 32-12 since 2004 with an average margin of victory of 1.5 runs. We see how a home playoff teams do after clobbering their oppt. by 5 or more runs in a playoff game. This spot is 2-0 this playoff season.

playoffs = 1 and site = home and p:margin >= 5 and p: playoffs = 1

SDQL: Play on Royals. Here we see how home teams do after shutting out their oppt and smoking them by 8 or more runs. This spot is 51-18 since 2008 and is 7-3 on this season.

H and po:runs=0 and op:margin<=-8 and SG>1 and 2008<=season and -230<line<=-115

Bol if you play and Go Royals

[JMon]

Just found this spot, fading a playoff team playing six playoff games following a loss are are in a series(omitting SG=6) are 2-20 since 2004 (4-10 since 2007 on RL)- Fade Giants

Enjoy!

SDQL

pppppp: playoffs=1 and p:L and playoffs=1 and SG=SGS and SG!=6

[nash13]

H and day = Sunday and total=9 and rest=0 and (SG=3 or SG=4) and month not in [6,8]

[nash13]

H and -100>=line>=-150 and tA(walks@season)<=3 and tS(hits>=12,N=3)=3

[mdunlap3]

Gentlemen, want to keep this thread going this season?

[mdunlap3]

Really small N on this one, very simple, going to take a small shot on it today.

Play Cards

SDQL: starter= Lance Lynn and A and DIV and month=4

English: Lance Lynn in an away divisional game in April.

6-0 in his career in this situation

[birdsfan]

team = Orioles and p:L and SG = 2 and SGS = 3 and season >= 2012

[birdsfan]

team = Blue Jays and p:L and pp:L and SG = 3 and SGS = 3 and H

[Alex Vaile]

team = Blue Jays and p:L and pp:L and SG = 3 and SGS = 3 and H

Looks good birds but not active today.

[birdsfan]

Looks good birds but not active today.

Yeah I know Toronto series is four games but figured I throw it up for when it does come active.

This is actually active for tonight

team = Rays and p:W and pp:W and SG = 3 and SGS = 4

[Alex Vaile]

Ya it didnt go that route in that game but good to know. Its tough when the sample size is so limited. Thanks for posting!

[Alex Vaile]

First play 4/19: (Courtesy of JMon)

Play Houston Astros + 106

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2008<=season and SG > 1

[Alex Vaile]

Gonna start up a new thread for this season. 2015 SDQL Baseball Thread