MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

**emceeaye** · 06-24-14, 01:22 PM

Thanks Alex! To you too!
There are at least 2 queries which I think have been posted in this thread but if not, they may be mine that I forgot to post. In any case here they are:

1. (p:LOB - po:LOB) > 5 and (tA(runs) / tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) > -.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 < (tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA < 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday and o:starter rest < 10
16-8 this year

2. HF and p:LOB > po:LOB + 5 and tA(runs, N=11) > oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11) > oA(hits, N=11) and streak = 1 and line > -160 and 1 < SG < 5
4-1 so far this year

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Nice. Good luck today!
What query favors blue jays? I'm just curious to look at that. Thanks

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by otunj

Alex, what do you do if you have 2 different set of queries that have opposite plays for the same game? Example... your query says to play the over, but I have one that says the under. Here's mine:

season>=2011 and conference=AL and o:conference=NL and AF and 10>total>=7

However, mine only is 2011 to present. Also, mine has a z-score of 3.13 (pretty good) whereas yours has one of 8.27 (unbelievable).

Great question. I'm still a novice when it comes to sdql queries. I've been piggybacking off JMon and Bases loaded and many other guys who actually come up with these awesome queries. These couple total queries that I've been using are so profitable it doesn't seem correct. So to answer your question for me I think sample size is very relevant to game outcomes. You said your query dates back to 2011 and you mentioned a z-score which I'm sorry I don't even know what that means. I've been looking at the ROI percentage to help me determine if I think a query is worth it and anything over 20 is amazing. With 2 queries that cancel each other out you may want to just avoid this game entirely. But one could probably come up with lots of parameters to create a query so I guess it's possible to come across this often. Not sure if I helped. But on the surface the under seems like a solid play with 2 money pitchers that don't allow many runs. Yesterday I took over in Baltimore white sox and it didn't look great on paper but cashed in the end. I guess that's where these awesome queries come into play. Good luck otunj. Maybe JMON or emceeaye have a better explanation.

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 01:34 PM

4th posted play 6/24:

Baltimore -137
Supported by earlier query that looks great.

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Thanks Alex! To you too!
There are at least 2 queries which I think have been posted in this thread but if not, they may be mine that I forgot to post. In any case here they are:

1. tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) > -.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 < (tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA < 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday and o:starter rest < 10
16-8 so far this year

2. HF and p:LOB > po:LOB + 5 and tA(runs, N=11) > oA(runs, N=11) and tA(hits, N=11) > oA(hits, N=11) and streak = 1 and line > -160 and 1 < SG < 5
4-1 so far this year

Right on emceeaye thanks and good luck!

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 02:09 PM

Here is another one supporting Jays today from Bases Loaded a while back.
(p:LOB - po:LOB) > 5 and (tA(runs) / tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) >
-.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 <
(tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA
< 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday
and o:starter rest < 10

Good results

**otunj** · 06-24-14, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

you mentioned a z-score which I'm sorry I don't even know what that means.

The z-value measures the likelihood that an observed event would occur due only to chance. The larger the z-value, the less likely it is that chance alone would cause the event. A z-value of 2 or larger is typically called "statistically significant" -- the likelihood is less than 5% that chance would cause such an event. A z-value of 3 or larger indicates that the likelihood is less than three in a thousand that chance would cause the observed event.

**otunj** · 06-24-14, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by emceeaye

Thanks Alex! To you too!
There are at least 2 queries which I think have been posted in this thread but if not, they may be mine that I forgot to post. In any case here they are:

1. tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) > -.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 < (tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA < 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday and o:starter rest < 10
16-8 so far this year

call me an idiot, but I'm getting a 75-72 record in 2014 with the above query. What am I missing?

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by otunj

The z-value measures the likelihood that an observed event would occur due only to chance. The larger the z-value, the less likely it is that chance alone would cause the event. A z-value of 2 or larger is typically called "statistically significant" -- the likelihood is less than 5% that chance would cause such an event. A z-value of 3 or larger indicates that the likelihood is less than three in a thousand that chance would cause the observed event.

Oh ok I got it now. Thanks. And where is the z- value located? Also the query on the Jays I found has a nice ROI of over 25%.

**emceeaye** · 06-24-14, 04:01 PM

Yes, sorry--It didnt post correctly as is usually the case. Here it is again with the line added that was left out before:

(p:LOB - po:LOB) > 5 and (tA(runs) / tA(hits)) - (oA(runs) / oA(hits)) > -.0173 and 3.4 > (tA(runs, N=11) - oA(runs, N=11)) > -.5 and -.05 < (tA(hits, N=11) - oA(hits, N=11)) < 3.05 and line > -157 and HF and s:SRA < 8 and os:SHA > 2 and os:SHRA < 3 and os:SPT > 73 and day != Friday and o:starter rest < 10

Its the same one that Alex posted.

Originally posted by otunj

call me an idiot, but I'm getting a 75-72 record in 2014 with the above query. What am I missing

**JMon** · 06-24-14, 04:48 PM

BasesLoaded...finally was able to go through your last entries....outstanding job as usual

**JMon** · 06-24-14, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Yup I'll try thanks. Who do u like today?

A and line<=-125 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and 9 * oS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / oS(9 - starter innings pitched)<=3.75 and sA(SHRA)<=.5 and 2009<=season and team=Athletics

omit team=Athletics for original query

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by JMon

A and line<=-125 and Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.265 and t:conference=AL and 9 * oS(o:earned runs - starter earned runs) / oS(9 - starter innings pitched)<=3.75 and sA(SHRA)<=.5 and 2009<=season and team=Athletics

omit team=Athletics for original query

Ya I put As in yesterday when I saw it posted. Kazmir been pretty tough this year. On it as well. Good luck.

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 07:16 PM

[QUOTE=Alex Vaile;22126065]Second posted play 6/24:

Over 7 + 105 Athletics vs. Mets

Wow by the 4th inning the over hits!

**JMon** · 06-24-14, 07:22 PM

Indeed, I was one it[QUOTE=Alex Vaile;22129217]

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Second posted play 6/24:

Over 7 + 105 Athletics vs. Mets

Wow by the 4th inning the over hits!

**JMon** · 06-24-14, 07:26 PM

Didn't think oak would be getting throttled

**Alex Vaile** · 06-24-14, 09:24 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Didn't think oak would be getting throttled

No I didn't either. But I read that they had lost 6 of last 7 in new york. Still I thought kazmir would b a bit better. Maybe next time

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 12:45 AM

3 and 1 today posted plays + 1.7 units.
12 and 4 overall for + 7.95 units.

I hit the jays also and lost on As but didnt post those as plays before gametime. Another good day in here guys thanks. Good luck tomorrow!

**emceeaye** · 06-25-14, 12:57 AM

As/Mets over win
RS/Mariners over win
Orioles su loss
Blue Jays su win
As su loss
Tigers su win
Angels SU win
Brew/Nats under win

Originally posted by emceeaye

Today's card (all based on queries posted this thread):
As/Mets over
RS/Mariners over
Orioles su
Blue Jays su
As su
Tigers su
Angels SU
Brewers/Nationals under

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 02:21 AM

Originally posted by emceeaye

As/Mets over win
RS/Mariners over win
Orioles su loss
Blue Jays su win
As su loss
Tigers su win
Angels SU win
Brew/Nats under win

Let's keep it rolling. Nice job today!

**otunj** · 06-25-14, 09:31 AM

Indoor Games

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record:14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Plays:
Rays U7

Other possible indoor games and currently not a play:
Brewers - as of now, the roof is open
Blue Jays - current status is roof is unknown
Mariners: unknown status

**JMon** · 06-25-14, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by otunj

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record:14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Plays:
Rays U7

Other possible indoor games and currently not a play:
Brewers - as of now, the roof is open
Blue Jays - current status is roof is unknown
Mariners: unknown status

cool let us know. Based loaded has a query supporting the under in tB as well.

**otunj** · 06-25-14, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by JMon

cool let us know. Based loaded has a query supporting the under in tB as well.

which query? thanks!

Also, Jmon, if you have to profitable queries supporting the same thing, do you place just one bet or two?

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 10:59 AM

First posted play 6/25:

Detroit tigers -151

tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA) and SG = 2 and s:SRA < 5 and 8 > ss:SRA > 0 and (s:SHA + s:SWA) < 12 and os:SHRA > 0 and oss:SHRA < 2 and (game number < 41 or 87 > game number > 61 or 103 > game number > 90 or game number > 130) and op:HR < 4 and op:hits < 14 and p:margin > -7 and -10 < pp:margin < 9 and -10 < opp:margin < 9 and streak > -4 and tA(hits, N=10) > 8.1 and oA(runs, N=10) < 5.3 and -243 < line < 165 and s:SPT > 76 and os:SPT > 66 and SGS < 5 and oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(errors, N=10) < 1.2

**JMon** · 06-25-14, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by otunj

which query? thanks!

Also, Jmon, if you have to profitable queries supporting the same thing, do you place just one bet or two?

I flat bet everything 5% of bankroll. If I have multiple strong queries supporting a play, I will increase to 10%- there must be no conflicting queries (regardless of strength)- if there are, auto no play for me.

Anyway that's how I do it, each person is different in how they use it.

**JMon** · 06-25-14, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

First posted play 6/25:

Detroit tigers -151

tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA) and SG = 2 and s:SRA < 5 and 8 > ss:SRA > 0 and (s:SHA + s:SWA) < 12 and os:SHRA > 0 and oss:SHRA < 2 and (game number < 41 or 87 > game number > 61 or 103 > game number > 90 or game number > 130) and op:HR < 4 and op:hits < 14 and p:margin > -7 and -10 < pp:margin < 9 and -10 < opp:margin < 9 and streak > -4 and tA(hits, N=10) > 8.1 and oA(runs, N=10) < 5.3 and -243 < line < 165 and s:SPT > 76 and os:SPT > 66 and SGS < 5 and oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(errors, N=10) < 1.2

Tigers salty after putting up b2b runs of 8 or more...not bad on the RL either

p:runs>=8 and pp:runs>=8 and team=Tigers and 2009<=season

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Tigers salty after putting up b2b runs of 8 or more...not bad on the RL either

p:runs>=8 and pp:runs>=8 and team=Tigers and 2009<=season

22 and 4 sounds pretty good to me too. Let's see.

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 12:26 PM

Second posted play 6/25:

Under 7 -120 Padres Giants

season > 2008 and H and 10 > month > 5 and SG < 4 and 5 > streak
> -5 and 1 > tA(HR) > .7 and s:SRA < 6 and p:hits < 11 and 16
> op:hits > 4 and sss:SRA < 4 and rest = 0 and p:home runs < 2 and
os:SSO < 11 and oss:SSO < 10 and os:SHA < 11 and 2 < oss:SHA < 11
and p:IT < 6 and p:LOB < 21 and s:SPT < 122 and ss:SPT < 119 and
team != Rockies and team != Athletics and o:team != Blue Jays and (p:errors +
pp:errors + ppp:errors + pppp:errors + ppppp:errors + pppppp:errors) < 10 and
(op:errors + opp:errors + oppp:errors + opppp:errors + oppppp:errors +
opppppp:errors) < 8 and (p:temperature < 91 or p:temperature = Indoors)

Third posted play 6/25:

Under 7.5 even Marlins vs Phillies

**otunj** · 06-25-14, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by otunj

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record:14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Plays:
Rays U7

Other possible indoor games and currently not a play:
Brewers - as of now, the roof is open
Blue Jays - current status is roof is unknown
Mariners: unknown status

Brewers are not a play today. roof is open according the the roof status line. Yes, they have one of those

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 02:06 PM

[QUOTE=otunj;22132125]H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record:14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Plays:
Rays U7

Winner winner! Nice job. I hopped on it too. Thanks!

**JMon** · 06-25-14, 02:31 PM

raining money in here as of late..working together pays off you see!

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 05:08 PM

Definitely paying off!! Timmy has a no hitter going too through 8. Hope it pulls through with the under too!

**Alex Vaile** · 06-25-14, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by JMon

raining money in here as of late..working together pays off you see!

Winner winner # 2

**otunj** · 06-25-14, 05:36 PM

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record (prior to today):14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Just announced that the Rogers Centre dome will be closed

play:
Blue Jays U9

**JMon** · 06-25-14, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by otunj

H and series game=series games=3 and temperature=Indoors and season=2014

Play the under on indoor games that are 3rd game of 3 game series.
2014 record (prior to today):14-26-3 (ROI +22.1%)

Just announced that the Rogers Centre dome will be closed

play:
Blue Jays U9

ugh missed it, hope it hits for you

**otunj** · 06-25-14, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by JMon

ugh missed it, hope it hits for you

Sorry, I posted it a minute after they announced. Doesn't look like Mariners roof will be closed. It rarely is