MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

Play the under when there is a game 3 of a 3 game home series when roofs are closed. Only losing season was 2004 (-$70). This season, the OU is 14-25-3 (+$970, ROI 20.5%)

Today's play would be the Dbacks vs Giants (roof is closed for game)

nice one otunj! I'm guessing the parameter ...temperature is something one has too look up to see if it's active? If so, would you track it here..? Notice the getaway under is on this game as well. Also be careful with links...mods do not like them!

[otunj]

Thanks and unlinked I'll also track the games here. The teams that play indoors are Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Dbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rays. Some of them actual have the status of the roofs on their website or they have responded my inquiries on twitter.

Also, where are the hammer plays listed?

[JMon]

Thanks and unlinked I'll also track the games here. The teams that play indoors are Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Dbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rays. Some of them actual have the status of the roofs on their website or they have responded my inquiries on twitter.

Also, where are the hammer plays listed?

ohh boy many many pages ago..lol. hammer play is on my monitor only list as of now due to under performance.

Original query

H and p:margin>=3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2007<season and SG > 1 and total>6.5

hammer play...simply change win margin of more than 7..

p:margin>7

[JMon]

Mad Max appears to respond well after giving up two or more HRs....appears to be a decent price...

starter=Max Scherzer and s:SHRA>=2 and 20100530<=date

this appears to be a winner!

[JMon]

History tells to back a NL team putting a lot of runs b2b, even with a season-to-date subpar BA

Sum(hits@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=.250 and conference=NL and p:runs>=8 and pp:runs>=8 and 2006<=season and 150>=line>=-250 and SG<4

winner on the Reds!!

[Alex Vaile]

this appears to be a winner!

Nice wins JMon 2 and 0 with hammer looking good!

[JMon]

Nice wins JMon 2 and 0 with hammer looking good!

yes...hammer play coming in. !!

[JMon]

With so many games, do you guys think there is home field advantage in MLB?

[Alex Vaile]

With so many games, do you guys think there is home field advantage in MLB?

Well as many athletes are superstitious and creatures of habit, I think there is an advantage to playing at home. They can drive the same way, sleep in their own beds, (probably) and see their family. That brings a level of calmness and familiarity to the day in my opinion. Probably have to take into account level of experience and maturity as well which is a whole other issue but yes I'll say there is an advantage.

[Alex Vaile]

Thanks and unlinked I'll also track the games here. The teams that play indoors are Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Dbacks, Mariners, Marlins, Rays. Some of them actual have the status of the roofs on their website or they have responded my inquiries on twitter.

Also, where are the hammer plays listed?

Thanks for the play I took it live and am hoping to ride on your query.

[JMon]

Well as many athletes are superstitious and creatures of habit, I think there is an advantage to playing at home. They can drive the same way, sleep in their own beds, (probably) and see their family. That brings a level of calmness and familiarity to the day in my opinion. Probably have to take into account level of experience and maturity as well which is a whole other issue but yes I'll say there is an advantage.

Nice...when I think of home field advantage and the number of games in MLB; I think of the working man. That is, the working man is predominately off on the weekends and therefore America's past time is to saddle up and take the kids, wife, gf or what ever to the ball park. That being said...home field advantage in MLB normally rests on the weekends. Tickets sales probably prove it and so does this query.

site==away and D and (day=Sunday or day=Saturday) and (SG=2 or SG=3 or SG=4) and 200>=line>140

Here we fade the road dog on Sat or Sun ....

filters... series game 2-4 and line parameters 200>=line>140. One losing year since '04. Playing heavy fav...I suppose for good reason.

enjoy

[JR007]

With so many games, do you guys think there is home field advantage in MLB?

not as far as first five innings goes, you guys might want to explore these type of bets, especially on the moneyline, which offer significant value

[Akajason18]

JMon what is your current record for the season..no disrespect or even an attempt to troll..i will be going to vegas on the 4th for a week and just looking for the sbr posters that i can back when i put some money down on some games.

[Alex Vaile]

Well 2 and 2 to start the picks for a total of 0 units. All plays are for 1 unit.
Today its
Under 7 +110 in Washington Atl
Under 7 -115 in San Diego
Mil - 126
Top 3 plays supported by queries. Bottom 2 plays supported by trends
Giants -143
Marlins +101

4 and 1 today on posted plays for +3.1 units. Good job everyone

[JMon]

JMon what is your current record for the season..no disrespect or even an attempt to troll..i will be going to vegas on the 4th for a week and just looking for the sbr posters that i can back when i put some money down on some games.

In this thread..guessing I would be up, but haven't tracked. I try to only post good queries in here as I am sure some may be tailing and I feel bad if it loses. Overall in MLB, I am down 8+ units; mainly due to May...took it on the chin. April was good and June the last few weeks have been solid. BOL in Vegas! Ill be up there for the second time in August.

[JMon]

4 and 1 today on posted plays for +3.1 units. Good job everyone

Job well done Alex!!!

[Alex Vaile]

Job well done Alex!!!

Thanks Jmon. 3 and 0 looks pretty darn good too. Everybody rolling today.

[emceeaye]

Two NL vs AL queries pointing in same direction

Just in case, here's a game Ive been looking forward to for weeks.

1. team=Pirates and o:conference=AL and A and WP<50
2. conference=NL and o:conference=AL and A and 230>=line>-105 and month<8 and 9.5>=total>=7

[emceeaye]

Nice Jmon, thanks! Simple, yet powerful.

Nice...when I think of home field advantage and the number of games in MLB; I think of the working man. That is, the working man is predominately off on the weekends and therefore America's past time is to saddle up and take the kids, wife, gf or what ever to the ball park. That being said...home field advantage in MLB normally rests on the weekends. Tickets sales probably prove it and so does this query.

site==away and D and (day=Sunday or day=Saturday) and (SG=2 or SG=3 or SG=4) and 200>=line>140

Here we fade the road dog on Sat or Sun ....

filters... series game 2-4 and line parameters 200>=line>140. One losing year since '04. Playing heavy fav...I suppose for good reason.

enjoy

[otunj]

Jmon, if you have different queries showing the same plays do you just bet one total play or bet the same thing as they are different queries? Example, my indoor under query and your getaway under had Dbacks under today. I would assume you would bet the under twice. I may be wrong

[otunj]

double posted...sorry

[Alex Vaile]

A query from Bases supports this play. I like it today as 1 of my posted plays.
p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7

1st posted play for today: + 3.1 units
Over 7.5 -105 White Sox Baltimore
Over 7.5 +115 White Sox Baltimore playing for 1 more unit at plus odds.

[Alex Vaile]

H and month > 5 and season > 2009 and 1.2 > tA(BPRA) > .6 and 8 > (s:SRA - os:SRA) > -4 and (p:hits + os:walks) < 15 and month != 8 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 5 and 30.7 > (p:SIP + pp:SIP + ppp:SIP + pppp:SIP) > 18.7 and (op:SIP + opp:SIP + oppp:SIP + opppp:SIP) > 19.4 and total > 6.4 and pu margin > -6.6 and streak < 5 and o:streak < 6 and -8 < ou streak < 4 and os:SPT < 123 and team != Twins and team != Red Sox and o:team != Indians and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO + ssss:SSO) > 9 and (s:SSO + ss:SSO + sss:SSO) < 26 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO + osssss:SSO) > 13 and (os:SSO + oss:SSO + osss:SSO + ossss:SSO) < 31

2nd posted play for today:
Under 8.5 -110 in Reds Cubs game

[Alex Vaile]

Third posted pick:
Cincinnati Reds currently even money

Just riding the hot team with the hot starter. Not sure what's up with the line but I'm going to go with it. Best of luck guys!

[Alex Vaile]

3 and 0 today for + 3.15 units
+ 6.25 units on posted plays. 9 and 3 so far.

[JMon]

Looking good Alex, keep it going

[otunj]

3 and 0 today for + 3.15 units
+ 6.25 units on posted plays. 9 and 3 so far.

Good job Alex. Also went 3-0 with Cubs under and White Sox over. Also faded White Sox with:

team=White Sox and A and 2<=o:streak and SG!=SGS and date>=20130504

[Alex Vaile]

Good job Alex. Also went 3-0 with Cubs under and White Sox over. Also faded White Sox with:

team=White Sox and A and 2<=o:streak and SG!=SGS and date>=20130504

Right on, glad u got on those picks. Winners are winners. It's nice to have positive feedback. Keep it up!

[Alex Vaile]

Looking good Alex, keep it going

Yup I'll try thanks. Who do u like today?

[Alex Vaile]

First posted pick 6/24:

Under 8 -120 Brewers vs. Nationals.

Same query as yesterday's.

[emceeaye]

Nice WS query, Jmon. Thanks!

I also was on Baltimore su yesterday. Your query is active again today. Also supporting it is the following that was posted earlier in this thread:

tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA) and SG = 2 and s:SRA < 5 and 8 > ss:SRA > 0 and (s:SHA + s:SWA) < 12 and os:SHRA > 0 and oss:SHRA < 2 and (game number < 41 or 87 > game number > 61 or 103 > game number > 90 or game number > 130) and op:HR < 4 and op:hits < 14 and p:margin > -7 and -10 < pp:margin < 9 and -10 < opp:margin < 9 and streak > -4 and tA(hits, N=10) > 8.1 and oA(runs, N=10) < 5.3 and -243 < line < 165 and s:SPT > 76 and os:SPT > 66 and SGS < 5 and oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(errors, N=10) < 1.2

Good job Alex. Also went 3-0 with Cubs under and White Sox over. Also faded White Sox with:

team=White Sox and A and 2<=o:streak and SG!=SGS and date>=20130504

[Alex Vaile]

Second posted play 6/24:

Over 7 + 105 Athletics vs. Mets

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7

3rd posted play 6/24:

Over 7.5 -115 Red Sox vs. Mariners

[emceeaye]

card today

Today's card (all based on queries posted this thread):
As/Mets over
RS/Mariners over
Orioles su
Blue Jays su
As su
Tigers su
Angels SU
Brewers/Nationals under

[Alex Vaile]

Today's card (all based on queries posted this thread):
As/Mets over
RS/Mariners over
Orioles su
Blue Jays su
As su
Tigers su
Angels SU
Brewers/Nationals under

Nice. Good luck today!
What query favors blue jays? I'm just curious to look at that. Thanks

[otunj]

Second posted play 6/24:

Over 7 + 105 Athletics vs. Mets

Alex, what do you do if you have 2 different set of queries that have opposite plays for the same game? Example... your query says to play the over, but I have one that says the under. Here's mine:

season>=2011 and conference=AL and o:conference=NL and AF and 10>total>=7

However, mine only is 2011 to present. Also, mine has a z-score of 3.13 (pretty good) whereas yours has one of 8.27 (unbelievable).