Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[samrock67]

Good stuff sam... I like what I am seeing in here. I wish I had a few free weeks to backtest it!

Everything looks great so far though. The only recommendation I would have is similar to what JMD said.. If Stiffler's version 1 system gets a win (meaning if a team wins by only 1 run), yet this system loses due to the fact that the -1.5 did not cover, I think it might be beneficial to quit the series at that point and recover the losses later. Since the risk amount is so small with this system, you could easily just take the total loss and add 20% to each of the next 5 series until it is recovered.

The nice thing about systems like this is that winning a bet on the C or D bet means more profit then if the bet would have won on the A or B bet.. So A and B losses are actually good in theory (as long as they win later)!

BOL

This is what I love about this system

[samrock67]

Alright, looks like we're gonna need a walk-off 2-run homer or better for this O's win...been done before, let's go O's!

[ColdBeerHere]

I'm on the ml but gl to you sam and anyone else on the rl.....

Let's see that 2 run walk off !

[illisdre]

I'm on the ml but gl to you sam and anyone else on the rl.....

Let's see that 2 run walk off !

... im pretty sure the only chance we have of winning this RL bet is if we get a homer with a man on base.
walkoff would end the game.

if im wrong... its cuz i don't know the rules well enuf

[illisdre]

Wooooooooooow

[illisdre]

Matt Wieters - #32 C

he just hit a homer and gave us a big up... make sure your a fan of this guy.

[Jellybeans]

GRAND SLAM!!!

[dogs1972]

Wow! Congratulations fellas.

[samrock67]

... im pretty sure the only chance we have of winning this RL bet is if we get a homer with a man on base.
walkoff would end the game.

if im wrong... its cuz i don't know the rules well enuf

A "walk-off" simply means a game-ending hit. So, a 2 run "walkoff" would be a 2 run homer in the bottom of the 9th or any inning after that...

but wow, I'll take a grand salami too!!!

cheers guys, what a great night!

[illisdre]

A "walk-off" simply means a game-ending hit. So, a 2 run "walkoff" would be a 2 run homer in the bottom of the 9th or any inning after that...

but wow, I'll take a grand salami too!!!

cheers guys, what a great night!

thanks for the tip.

i thought we had a chance to score a homer, what a great way to end the night.
Theres some teams that Run Lines go great for. Cheers!

[Jellybeans]

Another 10.5 units in the bank
Nice that a win can be more than 1 unit.

[samrock67]

Yea, I made back 17 units tonight...soooo happy

[Jellybeans]

But 1u = $10 for me, because you gonna have more losses than wins.
Nevertheless, nice way to add to my bankroll.

[ColdBeerHere]

i'm doin' the 1-2-4-8 chase....granted a tiny BR but still 20 units tonight for me.

[illisdre]

i'm doin' the 1-2-4-8 chase....granted a tiny BR but still 20 units tonight for me.

caution my friend caution.

would it not make more sense to increase your unit size slightly,, and decrease those ratios slightly.

for instance... if you won 40 A bets... and lost one D bet... that would be awful

[samrock67]

-1.5 RL for the Dodgers tomorrow isn't up yet on 5D, but seeing that they are +117 on the ML is a pretty good sign that the -1.5 RL is going to be +200 or better...

[samrock67]

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/baseball_run_lines.htm

A very interesting read on the logical approach to the RL with some very interesting statistics at the bottom...

[Jellybeans]

I think it is a San Diego Fade...so should be a bet on San Francisco

[illisdre]

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/ba..._run_lines.htm

A very interesting read on the logical approach to the RL with some very interesting statistics at the bottom...

Yea i read that article last year. I think the greatest point that translates to the system is we risk less. We will surely lose more games than playing ML, that is inevitable. But, the failure of Stiflers system has generally been on the backs of big favourites, like the LAD

Remember that -300 Dodgers ML yesterday... where they got there ass handed to them (San diego was +400 on Alternate RL)

[illisdre]

theres also teams which are more preferential on Run Line.

+For instance, Over/Under
-Stadiums
games in Colorado will be higher scoring, thus more run line success - this is factored into the run line usually.
-Pitchers - bad pitchers more runs etc.

What is interesting to me is over the past years i have witnessed some teams perform really well on RL
My observations below, are generalizations, but i found some interesting coincidences last year. (no evidence provided, i may be wrong)

Pitsburgh for instance, may lose alot of games, but when they win, they win by more than 1 run
NY yankees, boston, usually too.
I would usually steer clear of west coast teams, Oakland, SF, Seattle, LAD, LAA - found them to often be low scoring.

*Ofcourse, some of this is factored into the odds already

[cooler54]

Sorry for misleading record. The one I posted was for a different system. I will edit the post if I can. I got mixed up with the RL system based on another system.

All the talk in here from .5-1-2-4 to 1-2-4-8 has good merit. I would apply the .5-1-2-4 at first, than if you lose a series up the next few series to 1-2-4-8 until you reach a profit again.

There was another system that took the biggest favorite of the day at -1RL and would run a chase with it. If a chase lost he would play next few series for 1.25units until all the money was made back. If he lost another series during that time before the money was made back he would up it again. Even at 2-4-8-16, you are only looking at 30 units which is not bad at all. I might jump on board this train if my labby starts getting too out of hand. Right now its fine even though I am down 5.5units this week. My bets are still only 2u to win 1.5u based on the odds. If I have to start making 5-10 unit bets, than this system would have some good merit.

Just my 2 cents
I really hope this system works out well.

PPS
You ever hear of Wallco's 1-3-5 system? Its a money management strategy for the NBA based on John Morrison system. A = to win 1 unit, B = to win 1 unit loss + 3 additional units, C is to win A + B loss + 5 addtional units. The deeper the series went the more profit the system made as long as it did not lose all 3. Its a money management recovery system and showed a decent profit over 10 years of NBA testing he did. He is now testing a 1-7-5 system. The difference with this system is that say stifler wins ML, but you lose RL. He would drop the series and take the 1u loss. If ML lost than obviously RL lost as well, so you would continue onto B.

Just some different things to think about as you are learning the best way to run this system. I am not suggesting doing this right away until proper test is made. Just trying to think outside the box.

Good stuff JM...that wallco 135 betting system sounds like it could be sick particilarly with this system and all the extra units u can make the + odds...youd almost be hoping your A bets lose..lol

[samrock67]

Jellybeans you are right, it's a SD fade so the bet is on San Fran, and unfortunately they are heavy favorites...quick look at the RL is -120, hopefully that moves a little in our favor.

I'm not opposed to seeing how different betting strategies backtest, but the idea behind the way this chase is to set up is that you are risking relatively little over the course of the chase. I didn't run the numbers yet but I think if you stopped a series if it won on the ML but not the RL you would be cutting out a LOT of profit. Ill run those numbers today. Also, a 1-3-5 strategy doesn't cover all 4 bets...just stating the obvious.

[samrock67]

4/19/13

Current Stifler record: 31-1, -5.503u
RL Record: 30-1(+58.93u), 2 series pending(-8u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 11-21
B bet: 9-11
C bet: 5-6
D bet: 4-1

4/18 RECAP

(D Bet) S3 Tor:Tor -1.5(+170) 8u WINNER +6.6u
(C Bet) S3 Bal: Bal -1.5(+225) 4u** WINNER +6u
(A Bet) P1 Price fade: Bal -1.5(+225) 1u** WINNER +2.25u
(A Bet) P2 Price fade: Bal -1.5(+225) 1u** WINNER +2.25u

** Alternative options: ML(+111) and +1.5(-155)

Pending:
S3 SD fade, D bet on 4/19/13
P2 Masterson, next start

[ColdBeerHere]

theres also teams which are more preferential on Run Line.

+For instance, Over/Under
-Stadiums
games in Colorado will be higher scoring, thus more run line success - this is factored into the run line usually.
-Pitchers - bad pitchers more runs etc.

What is interesting to me is over the past years i have witnessed some teams perform really well on RL
My observations below, are generalizations, but i found some interesting coincidences last year. (no evidence provided, i may be wrong)

Pitsburgh for instance, may lose alot of games, but when they win, they win by more than 1 run
NY yankees, boston, usually too.
I would usually steer clear of west coast teams, Oakland, SF, Seattle, LAD, LAA - found them to often be low scoring.

*Ofcourse, some of this is factored into the odds already

I actually started experimenting with Away Team RL's a couple of seasons ago until I got sidetracked into another system, and then sidetracked into life and the real world and could not finish either....It is a project I would like to resume at some point....Here's a link to that thread if anyone is interested.....

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/1105435-rl-away-team-experiment.html

Again, at this point I don't have the time to do either one of my systems I started in that thread which is why I am here having fun with a small BR, and this system.

[Want2Win]

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/ba..._run_lines.htm

A very interesting read on the logical approach to the RL with some very interesting statistics at the bottom...

This article is good stuff and you are doing a GREAT job! Going to the website, I tried to find the continuation of this article, but couldn't find it. Do you have it or know where to find it?

thanks!

[Woody723]

What games will you be playing the RL on today? Reds, giants, Rockies,w sox?

[samrock67]

What games will you be playing the RL on today? Reds, giants, Rockies,w sox?

There is an S3 D bet on the Giants...as for A bets, I'm waiting for Stifler to post his plays so I can post here.

[samrock67]

Well, still waiting for Stifler to post but in the meantime:

(D Bet) S3 SD fade: SF -1.5(+100) 8u

[on3]

checking in

[theanswer03k]

following here too, great stuff

[illisdre]

locked and loaded. GL!

[samrock67]

4/19/13

Big day boys...BUCKLE UP AND LET'S GET ER DONE!!!

A Bets
S1 SD fade:San Fran -1.5(-105) 1u
S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+205) 1u
S3 SF: San Fran-1.5(-105) 1u
S3 TB: TB -1.5(+180) 1u
S3 NYY fade:Tor -1.5(+170) 1u
P1 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+140) 1u
P1 Morrow fade: NYY -1.5(+158) 1u
P2 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+140) 1u

D Bets
S3 SD fade: SF -1.5(+100) 8u

[samrock67]

FOR SATURDAY, 4/20


I am unable to post on Saturdays since I work weekends, so please see and/or refer people to Post #137 for potential B Bets for 4/20

All A bets, 1u on the RL, as usual. See the Stifler thread for tomorrow's A bets(if any): http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-b...013-a-p17.html

[samrock67]

Summary of tonight:

[ColdBeerHere]

Alright I've had about enough of the Padres screwing me over in this short year so far.....Time for some payback !!!

San Diego you got to ask yourself one question......