Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[samrock67]

Morrow fade updated and NYY fade added in post 137

[samrock67]

I'm out for the weekend...please keep an eye on the Stifler thread for the remaining 4 potential plays, 2 of which are currently qualified as plays(Oak fade and Cubs fade).

Will check in tomorrow night with what will hopefully be a fantastically productive recap...

BOL GENTLEMEN!!!

[J.M. Disciple]

With a 29-39 record (42.6%) what odds do you need to show a profit with that win rate?

Answer +139 odds will qualify as break even or ahead if you win 42% of your games.

At $100 a pop flat betting. ($100 x 58 losses) - ($139 x 42) = +$38

So anything above +139 odds should be +EV I would think.

[illisdre]

owell start fresh i guess.

[ColdBeerHere]

Yepp, oh well start a new.....Here's today's plays for 4-20 pending any "A" bets by Stifler, or any "P" bets....

B Bets
S1 SD Fade: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S1 Clev Fade: Houston -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -102 ---> will this line change to + ?
S3 SF: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S3 NYY Fade: Tor -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -105 ---> will this line change to + ?

[dalogester]

thx so much cold beer.

[DollarBill10]

Yepp, oh well start a new.....Here's today's plays for 4-20 pending any "A" bets by Stifler, or any "P" bets....

B Bets
S1 SD Fade: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S1 Clev Fade: Houston -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -102 ---> will this line change to + ?
S3 SF: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S3 NYY Fade: Tor -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -105 ---> will this line change to + ?

What about the Cubs FADE: MIL? They only won by 1 run yesterday...

[ColdBeerHere]

Yepp, oh well start a new.....Here's today's plays for 4-20 pending any "A" bets by Stifler, or any "P" bets....

B Bets
S1 SD Fade: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S1 Clev Fade: Houston -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -102 ---> will this line change to + ?
S3 SF: SFGiants -1.5 (+140) 2u
S3 NYY Fade: Tor -1.5 (+185) 2u ml -105 ---> will this line change to + ?

Don't forget to add St.Louis -1.5 +200 1u

[ColdBeerHere]

What about the Cubs FADE: MIL? They only won by 1 run yesterday...

unless I am missing something I don't think it's a play...I don't see where Stifler posted it anywhere

[DollarBill10]

unless I am missing something I don't think it's a play...I don't see where Stifler posted it anywhere

Stifler's page POST 589

[ColdBeerHere]

Stifler's page POST 589

nice catch...we must have missed it...so let's add that play

B bet

S3: Cubs fade: Brewers -1.5 (+185) 2U

[ColdBeerHere]

omg what happened in the Houston game ? How does a pitcher allow 8 runs in 1/3 of an inning ? And how does a manager allow the pitcher to remain in the game for that long to allow that many runs ?

Wow...

[Hustler11]

omg what happened in the Houston game ? How does a pitcher allow 8 runs in 1/3 of an inning ? And how does a manager allow the pitcher to remain in the game for that long to allow that many runs ?

Wow...

Don't know, don't care. My money was on the indians! Lol, it is crazy though.

[samrock67]

Be home soon, will have an update within the next hour. Needless to say, not a good weekend so far...

[samrock67]

4/20/13

Current Stifler record: 39-1, +2.497u
RL Record: 35-2(+57.97u), 9 series pending(-13u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 15-32
B bet: 12-13
C bet: 5-6
D bet: 4-2

4/19 RECAP

A Bets
S1 SD fade:San Fran -1.5(-105) 1u
S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+205) 1u
S3 SF: San Fran-1.5(-105) 1u
S3 TB: TB -1.5(+180) 1u +1.8u
S3 NYY fade:Tor -1.5(+170) 1u
S3 Oak fade: TB -1.5(+180) 1u +1.8u
S3 Cubs fade: Mil -1.5(+190) 1u
P1 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+140) 1u
P1 Morrow fade: NYY -1.5(+158) 1u +1.58u
P2 Hudson: Atl -1.5(+140) 1u

D Bets
S3 SD fade: SF -1.5(+100) 8u

Pending:
S1 SD fade
S2 Cle fade
S3 SF
S3 NYY fade
S3 Cubs fade
P1 Hudson
P2 Masterson
P2 Hudson

[cooler54]

wow u guys are really hitting the jackpot with your game 4 plus odds....congrats tonight!

[samrock67]

4/20/13

I know this is late, but here is what today's card was:

(A Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+200) 1u WINNER +2u
(B Bet) S1 SD fade:SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+195) 2u
(B Bet) S3 SF: SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S3 NYY fade:Tor -1.5(+181) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Cubs fade:Mil -1.5(+185) 2u WINNER +2.7u
(A Bet) S3 Bos): Bos -1.5(+154) 1u
(A Bet) S3 CHW: White Sox -1.5(+125) 1u
(A Bet) P1 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u


Pending:
S2 Cle fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S3 NYY fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S3 Bos, B bet on 4/21/13
S3 CHW, B bet on 4/21/13
P2 Masterson, next start
P1 Hudson, next start
P2 Hudson, next start
P1 Buehrle, next start
P2 Buehrle, next start

[Roadkill86]

My San Francisco bet was canceled because I didn't take the action line, and Richard was a late scratch. Should I be taking the action line on all these bets?

[samrock67]

My San Francisco bet was canceled because I didn't take the action line, and Richard was a late scratch. Should I be taking the action line on all these bets?

Yes...the only time pitching matchups matter is for the 3 Pitching systems

[ColdBeerHere]

4/20/13

I know this is late, but here is what today's card was:

(A Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+200) 1u
(B Bet) S1 SD fade:SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+195) 2u
(B Bet) S3 SF: SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S3 NYY fade:Tor -1.5(+181) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Cubs fade:Mil -1.5(+185) 2u WINNER +2.7u
(A Bet) S3 Bos): Bos -1.5(+154) 1u
(A Bet) S3 CHW: White Sox -1.5(+125) 1u
(A Bet) P1 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u


Pending:
S2 Cle fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S3 NYY fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S1 Stl, B bet on 4/21/13
S3 Bos, B bet on 4/21/13
S3 CHW, B bet on 4/21/13
P2 Masterson, next start
P1 Hudson, next start
P2 Hudson, next start
P1 Buehrle, next start
P2 Buehrle, next start

Hey Sam, Welcome Back...Might want to correct that St.Louis wager....They beat the Phillies 5-0 today so they covered the -1.5 rl

[samrock67]

Hey Sam, Welcome Back...Might want to correct that St.Louis wager....They beat the Phillies 5-0 today so they covered the -1.5 rl

Thanks, all posts fixed.

[samrock67]

4/21/13

Current Stifler record: 41-1, +4.497u, 7 series pending
RL Record: 36-2(+57.97u), 9 series pending(-13u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 15-32
B bet: 12-13
C bet: 5-6
D bet: 4-2

4/20 RECAP
(A Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+200) 1u WINNER +2u
(B Bet) S1 SD fade:SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+195) 2u
(B Bet) S3 SF: SF -1.5(+154) 2u WINNER +2.08u
(B Bet) S3 NYY fade:Tor -1.5(+181) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Cubs fade:Mil -1.5(+185) 2u WINNER +2.7u
(A Bet) S3 Bos): Bos -1.5(+154) 1u
(A Bet) S3 CHW: White Sox -1.5(+125) 1u
(A Bet) P1 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Buehrle:Tor -1.5(+181) 1u


Pending:
S2 Cle fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S3 NYY fade, C bet on 4/21/13
S3 Bos, B bet on 4/21/13
S3 CHW, B bet on 4/21/13
P2 Masterson, next start
P1 Hudson, next start
P2 Hudson, next start
P1 Buehrle, next start
P2 Buehrle, next start

[samrock67]

4/21/13

(C Bet) S2 Cle fade: Hou -1.5(+195) 4u
(C Bet) S3 NYY fade: Tor -1.5(+145) 4u
(B Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+135) 2u
(B Bet) S3 CHW: CHW -1.5(+135) 2u
(A Bet) P1 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 1u
(A Bet) P2 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 1u

**Denotes line not available at time of post
Alternate lines for S2 Cle fade: ML(+107), +1.5(-150)
Alternate lines for P1, P2 Fister: ML(-103), +1.5(-210)

[dlunc3]

since there is two boston games today, I guess we would play the 2nd one as our C bet if the first one loses?

[dalogester]

good question, wondering the same.

[samrock67]

It's a good question...doubleheaders do make for an interesting situation. I'll ask Stifler what he thinks, just posted in his thread.

As for today- the Sox are playing well and due to recent events, I think they're going to be playing hard and be focused. The pitching matchups are pretty even...Santana has gone 8 innings in his last 2 starts but Dempster's been a strikeout machine. Guthrie has also been pitching well but has subpar career numbers against the Sox.

I think we'll take one of these today.

[samrock67]

Ok, per Stifler's response, the 2nd game of a doubleheader would be a play for the next game in the chase if the 1st game did not cover. Thanks for the heads-up dlunc.

[ColdBeerHere]

anyone know how to bet "action" at 5dimes on the runline ? They have the option for the moneyline but I don't see anywhere to bet action on the runline.

[samrock67]

anyone know how to bet "action" at 5dimes on the runline ? They have the option for the moneyline but I don't see anywhere to bet action on the runline.

I haven't been able to bet action on the RL either...which I thought was weird, but looking at my history all of my RL bets have been listed pitchers

[illisdre]

dam i keep waking up late and missin these plays!

[kosti]

I haven't been able to bet action on the RL either...which I thought was weird, but looking at my history all of my RL bets have been listed pitchers

Are you able to bet live at 5dimes on the run line? Luckily I missed the pregame wager last night on SD fade and played it live in top of 1st inning...this is at bet365 though....not sure if the other books do live RL bets.

[ColdBeerHere]

maybe I am thinking of another book but I thought there was always the option to bet action at 5dimes ? That would be real amateurish if you can't bet action there....

The live bet might be a possibility but it's not practical - I am not always going to be at my pc when a game starts to put an action live bet in....


sidenote - looks like we got "C" bet on Boston tonight

[samrock67]

For tonight:

(C Bet) S3 Bos: Bos -1.5(+140) 4u

[dalogester]

I just want to make sure when you say 4 units does that mean you are betting 4x normal unit size or to WIN 4 units?

[samrock67]

I just want to make sure when you say 4 units does that mean you are betting 4x normal unit size or to WIN 4 units?

Betting 4 units

This system is running on a 1-2-4-8 system:

A Bet- Bet 1 unit
B Bet- Bet 2 units
C Bet- Bet 4 units
D Bet- Bet 8 units