Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[alexknyc]

Seem to have jinxed myself...

Looks like we are looking at the 1st loss of the season as the White Sox are about to drop 3 straight after winning the first game by 1.

Be careful with RL favorite chases... I backtested Atari's system that way two years ago and it was not even close to even with the ML chase.

[samrock67]

Be careful with RL favorite chases... I backtested Atari's system that way two years ago and it was not even close to even with the ML chase.

I'm just using this to keep track, haven't started betting yet...just seeing how Stifler's system ends up doing on the RL

[ColdBeerHere]

Seem to have jinxed myself...

Looks like we are looking at the 1st loss of the season as the White Sox are about to drop 3 straight after winning the first game by 1.

The White Sox weren't a play tonight, were they ?

[samrock67]

The White Sox weren't a play tonight, were they ?

totally my bad, that's TDK's system...I have to remember not to confuse the 2.

My apologies CBH, the only bets for today are the LAA C bet and the Seattle A bet.

[ColdBeerHere]

Ouch just as things were going well I made a mistake placing a bet...I bet (risked) 8 units instead of 4 on the Angels....Hate when I do that kind of stuff

[samrock67]

S3

(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09 | LA Angels -1.5(+158) 1.76u
(A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle -1.5(+135) .641u

Pending:
S3 LAA, D bet on 4/12/13
S3 Tex fade, B bet on 4/12/13

[samrock67]

4/12/2013

Current Stifler record: 23-0, 2 series pending
RL Record: 21-0(+40.95u), 2 series pending(-8u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 8-15
B bet: 7-7
C bet: 4-3
D bet: 2-0

4/12/13
Interesting situation today as Seattle is an underdog. Your choice as to whether you want to take the ML or be super bold and go with the RL for some SUPER JUICE...

S3
(D bet) LAA: LAA -1.5(+100) 8u
(B bet) Tex fade: Sea ML(+129) OR -1.5(+245) 2u

[samrock67]

I also apologize in advance but I work weekends so I won't be able to post plays on Saturdays. I will post any potential plays based on open series on Friday, but any new series you will have to look at Stifler's thread and remember that it is just a 1-unit bet for all A bets on Saturday.

Sorry for the inconvenience, best of luck on our 3rd D bet!

[ColdBeerHere]

4/12/2013

Current Stifler record: 23-0, 2 series pending
RL Record: 21-0(+40.95u), 2 series pending(-8u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 8-15
B bet: 7-7
C bet: 4-3
D bet: 2-0

4/12/13
Interesting situation today as Seattle is an underdog. Your choice as to whether you want to take the ML or be super bold and go with the RL for some SUPER JUICE...

S3
(D bet) LAA: LAA -1.5(+100) 8u
(B bet) Tex fade: Sea ML(+129) OR -1.5(+245) 2u

Tough call on that one....I'll have to think about it...I just laid an 11unit bet on the Angels RL....Wish me luck....After my mistake that's to recoup and win one unit....

I am going to have to think about that Seattle play....ML or RRL.....hmmm, tough call there.....

[samrock67]

Tough call on that one....I'll have to think about it...I just laid an 11unit bet on the Angels RL....Wish me luck....After my mistake that's to recoup and win one unit....

I am going to have to think about that Seattle play....ML or RRL.....hmmm, tough call there.....

Yea, especially against Darvish, it's a really tough call. Winning by 1 is going to be hard enough LOL

[samrock67]

NYY line added.

S3
(D bet) LAA: LAA -1.5(+100) 8u
(B bet) Tex fade: Sea ML(+129) OR -1.5(+245) 2u
(A bet) NYY: NYY -1.5(+130) 1u

[samrock67]

Potential games for Saturday, 4/13


(C bet) Sea -1.5, 4u
(B bet) NYY -1.5, 2u

All A bets, 1u(please see Stifler thread)

[ColdBeerHere]

Think i'll play conservative and take seattle ml....+129 is fine with me....no need to get greedy

[ColdBeerHere]

Wow he just had a late addition of Oakland...about an hour before first pitch...I just got my wager in on the ml +105

[ColdBeerHere]

Also noticed that PITT was added later in the day as well...I actually missed that one...So I picked up a free unit on that series if we can close it out

[samrock67]

4/13/2013

Current Stifler record: 27-1, -9.503u
RL Record: 23-1(+28.97u), 2 series pending(-6u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 9-16
B bet: 8-8
C bet: 4-3
D bet: 2-0


Here is what today's card looked like:

S3 Pit, B bet(2u)- still pending
S3 Oak, B bet(2u)

[ColdBeerHere]

ugh...double space for me now on Pittsburgh.

[samrock67]

4/14/13

Current Stifler record: 27-1, -9.503u
RL Record: 24-1(+33.51u), 1 series pending(-3u in play)
Bet Records
A bet: 9-16
B bet: 9-8
C bet: 4-3
D bet: 2-0

4/13/13 RECAP

S3 Pit, B bet(2u)- WINNER, +1.76u
S3 Oak, B bet(2u)

Pending:
S3 Oak, C bet(4u) on 4/14/13

[Jellybeans]

Very interesting thread.
If a team is +101 or higher on the ML, do you take the-1.5 RL or +1.5 RL?
Only concern I have here is, after the All-Star break or near the end of the season, you might have more 1 run wins, since teams try get into the playoffs.
But nice work Sam, hope we get some extra $$$

[ColdBeerHere]

Jellybeans if the team is + on the ml I have been going with that....I actually just grabbed Oakland at +109 for my "C" bet

[samrock67]

Jellybeans-

It's a long, long season. I only started this because I was very curious to see how a full season pans out on the RL. This is my first year following Stifler's chase system. I have followed other chase systems before and found that the percent of chases that wind up covering on the RL is significantly higher than one might have predicted. Hopefully this thread will give some insight into whether the profit brought about by the better odds will cover the increased number of losses this system is bound to have. I predict that we will come out on top.

As for when a team is +101 or better on the ML, it's a very intriguing dilemma- I understand that as an underdog, the odds dictate that it is enough of an "accomplishment" if an underdog ends up winning, but this IS a RL system...and if the underdog IS going to win, I don't think that the odds of them winning by 2 is theoretically any worse than them winning the game in the first place. I'm fine with just taking the ML and being happy that they won, but the +200 odds or better that you will probably get on the RL is very tempting...

[Jellybeans]

Thanks for the clarification.
What I have meant to ask was, for tracking purpose, when a team becomes a +101 or better, which would have been used, the -1.5 or +1.5
Yes, i agree on the winning by 2, since it is base on a RL chase.
So in theory, base on the 1-2-4-8, each chase loss would be 15u, but a win could be more than 1u.
So a C bet could potentially give 6u or more, then again, this is all speculation, nothing have been back tested, but very interesting.
Just sign up with 5Dimes, liked the reduced juice.
Pros and Cons on 5Dimes? Was using local casino for all wagering, but driving there daily was too much and the odds where far worst than on-line.

[samrock67]

When I team becomes +101 or better, I prefer to use -1.5, but I would sooner consider taking the ML over the +1.5. The situation has only come up once, I believe. Taking the +1.5 in that situation will always yield a profit of <1u if they do cover/win(not the worst thing in the world) while, assuming you would get odds better than +200, taking the -1.5 will most probably yield profit of 3u or greater. It't definitely something to consider- you have 3 viable options when a team becomes a dog during a chase.

I think the numbers I list are going to be based on taking the -1.5 for every game. I will continue to monitor the differences when such a situation comes up.

Based on the 1-2-4-8, a loss will yield 15u and a win will ALWAYS yield more than 1u(unless the odds on the winning game are +100).

The highest individual yield for a series has been 4.2 units(D bet win). The current average yield for a series is around 1.23u

[samrock67]

04/14/13

S3
(C bet) Oak -1.5(+200) 4u**

**Other options: ML(+109), +1.5(-150)

[Jellybeans]

Nice to have this thread.
Where we can discuss Stifler's thread and not clog it.
GL to us all

[samrock67]

04/14/13

S3
(C bet) Oak -1.5(+200) 4u**

**Other options: ML(+109), +1.5(-150)

Pending:
S3 Oak, D bet on 4/15/13

[ColdBeerHere]

When I team becomes +101 or better, I prefer to use -1.5, but I would sooner consider taking the ML over the +1.5. The situation has only come up once, I believe. Taking the +1.5 in that situation will always yield a profit of <1u if they do cover/win(not the worst thing in the world) while, assuming you would get odds better than +200, taking the -1.5 will most probably yield profit of 3u or greater. It't definitely something to consider- you have 3 viable options when a team becomes a dog during a chase.

I think the numbers I list are going to be based on taking the -1.5 for every game. I will continue to monitor the differences when such a situation comes up.

Based on the 1-2-4-8, a loss will yield 15u and a win will ALWAYS yield more than 1u(unless the odds on the winning game are +100).

The highest individual yield for a series has been 4.2 units(D bet win). The current average yield for a series is around 1.23u

That will be helpful.....


Also liking the fact we got the A's as a heavy ml favorite for a D bet...But still positive juice on the RL

[samrock67]

4/15/13

Current Stifler record: 27-1, -9.503u
RL Record: 24-1(+39.23u), 1 series pending(-7u in play)
Bet Records
A bet: 9-16
B bet: 9-8
C bet: 4-4
D bet: 2-0

S3

(D Bet) Oak: Oak -1.5(+110) 8u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -1.5(+145) 1u
(A Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(+125) 1u


potential plays:
- S3 Cin, if line <+100

[cooler54]

Has anyone started playing this yet, or are you all just monitoring it still?

[ColdBeerHere]

Ya I.m playing it

[mwbrewers]

I personally like the way this system plays. With that being said, are you considering changing some of the teams that are being used in this chase? I know you are just copying Stiflers plays, but since this has worked well so far, it's probably beneficial to start commiting to it. Teams like the Angels are used in the chase, but they have proven to let us down this year

[samrock67]

Has anyone started playing this yet, or are you all just monitoring it still?

Ive started running a .5-1-2-4 line instead of the standard 1-2-4-8 and if this continues on this pace I will bump it up in the future.

[samrock67]

I personally like the way this system plays. With that being said, are you considering changing some of the teams that are being used in this chase? I know you are just copying Stiflers plays, but since this has worked well so far, it's probably beneficial to start commiting to it. Teams like the Angels are used in the chase, but they have proven to let us down this year

I know it's easy to hate on the Angels because how bad they have been. I get it. I'm mad at them too LOL. But it's early- too early to be making changes like that just yet. It will take time before we see trends start to emerge. What I will say is that I will definitely keep a closer eye on the teams in each system and whether how good/bad of a team they are actually impacts their ability to cover.

[NYC's Finest]

can someone tell me how many games in the MLB are won by 1 run the past 5 seasons? Would also be helpful if it's just the favored team that is -1.5. would really appreciate it!

[cooler54]

I know the mlb overall is like 30% for one run games i believe