Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[samrock67]

Upon recommendation from ColdBeerHere(props) and permission from Stifler(a thousand thanks), I will be using this thread to keep track of Stifler's Chase system's performance on the RL and posting plays for those who are interested.

For those of you who bet "to win" 1 unit, this will save you money on your chases. Significant money.
For those of you who bet a certain amount per game and ignore unit size, this could turn out to be very profitable.

USE THIS SYSTEM AT YOUR OWN RISK. I have not backtested Stifler's stats in prior years, and I don't plan to. This thread is solely for the purpose of monitoring how Stifler's system does on the RL. If you choose to use these bets instead of or in addition to Stifler's plays, please do so at your own risk. I cannot yet vouch for the efficacy of this system. We will see how things pan out in 2013.

The Stifler Chase System can be found here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2253014-mlb-chase-2013-a.html

If you haven't done so already, please make sure you fully understand Stifler's system before betting. The idea here is simple- all of Stifler's bets are ML bets. When the team you are betting on wins, the series is over. With this system, the series is only over if the team covers the RL. If they do not, the chase proceeds until they do. Since this is pretty much a repeat of Stifler's system, each series will be a 4-game chase.

Lines will be based on the book I use, which is 5Dimes.

I will try to post plays as early as possible, but please bear in mind that any new series will depend on Stifler posting in his chase thread, which thankfully, he is very good about.

Again, thanks to Stifler for permission to go ahead with this.

[samrock67]

Current Stifler record: 16-0, 2 series pending
RL Record: 15-0(+15.00u), 3 series pending(-2.05u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 6-11
B bet: 2-6
C bet: 4-2
D bet: 1-0


Here is what today's card would have looked like. The lines posted are final lines from scoresandodds.com.
NOTE: For future lines, I will post the given line at the time of the posting(per 5Dimes) and will only update it if there is significant movement during the day.

4/8/13



S3
(D Bet) SF: SF -1.5(+115) 3.39u
(A Bet) Bal fade: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
(A Bet) Boston: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
(A Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Seattle -1.5(+130) .769u
(A Bet) ChC: ChC -1.5(+160) .625u
(A Bet) Cin fade: St. Louis -1.5(+180) .555u

[abzflabz]

Checkin in

[rustie]

Will be keeping a eye on this too, Thanks Samrock

[ColdBeerHere]

Checking in also, thanks Sam

[Tolrad]

I'm watching as well.

[Thadeus]

Interesting... thanks a lot

[samrock67]

4/8/13



S3
(D Bet) SF: SF -1.5(+115) 3.39u
(A Bet) Bal fade: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
(A Bet) Boston: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
(A Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Seattle -1.5(+130) .769u
(A Bet) ChC: ChC -1.5(+160) .625u
(A Bet) Cin fade: St. Louis -1.5(+180) .555u

Pending
S3 TB fade, B bet on 4/9/13
S3 ChC, B bet on 4/9/13
S3 Cin fade, B bet on 4/9/13

[samrock67]

4/9/2013

Current Stifler record: 18-0
RL Record: 15-0(+15.00u), 3 series pending(-2.05u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 7-11
B bet: 2-6
C bet: 4-2
D bet: 2-0

S2

(A bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u

S3
(B Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u| Texas -1.5(+145) 1.29u
(B Bet) Cubs: Cubs -1.5(+160) .625u | Cubs -1.5(+185) .878u
(B Bet) Cin fade: St.Louis -1.5(+180) .555u | St. Louis -1.5(+180) .864u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Detroit -1.5(+170) .588u
(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u
(A Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u

[mrk77]

checking in

[bigdog56]

Thanks for doing this. I'm expecting positive results here!

[laca07]

Just throwing it out there, you may be better off running this as a RL -1 system. That extra half will earn you some pushes. It will cost you more, however.

Either way, thanks for tracking this!

[ColdBeerHere]

alright Sam I'm tailing...Got a little in an account which I plan on following this system....No big money....

I wanted to do a home team RL chase of some kind...,..I may do it down the road but for now I want to follow this.....Love the + odds and no juice...FWIW I am risking one unit each step of the chase so units are 1 - 2 - 4 - 8

Let's have some fun withh this, and make some money

***for record purposes my BR is starting with 66 units*** - putting this in this post so I can look back in the future to see how much my BR has hopefully grown.

[samrock67]

Just throwing it out there, you may be better off running this as a RL -1 system. That extra half will earn you some pushes. It will cost you more, however.

Either way, thanks for tracking this!

I hear ya, except the idea is not to push, but to win. A push in the scheme of the chase would just be counted as a loss.

[ColdBeerHere]

Biggggg Night....Up over 11 units with LAA pending...

that's what I'm talking about

[figue]

[samrock67]

CBH-

The 1-2-4-8 strategy isn't a terrible idea, but just based on the numbers on my spreadsheet, you never end up risking more than 7 units total on a series. The variance in series cost is crazy- cheapest series was .588 units and most expensive was 6.8 units. More often than not you could probably do a RL chase for 5-6 games and still not spend as much as a regular 4-game chase.

[samrock67]

S2

(A bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u

S3
(B Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u| Texas -1.5(+145) 1.29u
(B Bet) Cubs: Cubs -1.5(+160) .625u | Cubs -1.5(+185) .878u
(B Bet) Cin fade: St.Louis -1.5(+180) .555u | St. Louis -1.5(+180) .864u
(A Bet) Tor fade: Detroit -1.5(+170) .588u
(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u
(A Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u

Pending
S2 Pit fade, B Bet on 4/10/13
S3 LAA, B Bet on 4/10/13
S3 ChW fade, B Bet on 4/10/13

[samrock67]

4/10/2013

Current Stifler record: 22-0
RL Record: 19-0(+19.00u*), 3 series pending(-2.07u in play)
* Assumes you are trying to win 1u per series

Bet Records
A bet: 8-14
B bet: 5-6
C bet: 4-2
D bet: 2-0

4/10/13

S2

(B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u | Arizona -1.5(+110) 1.54u

S3
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09u
(B Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u | Washington -1.5(+135) 1.25u

[ColdBeerHere]

Thnx for posting sam....yes I like your idea of possibly being able to chase for 5 or 6 games....are you going to chase that far or just stick to the 4 games ?

[samrock67]

Thnx for posting sam....yes I like your idea of possibly being able to chase for 5 or 6 games....are you going to chase that far or just stick to the 4 games ?

For now I'm actually just keeping track- I'm still in the process of making up money lost on the basketball season. I'd like to grow my roll a little bit and see how this system performs over the course of 1-2 months before diving in.

[samrock67]

4/10/13

S2

(B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u | Arizona -1.5(+110) 1.54u

S3
(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09u
(B Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u | Washington -1.5(+135) 1.25u

Pending:
S3 LAA, C bet on 4/11/13

[samrock67]

CBH-

I'm going to run the numbers to see what the profit would look like if you followed a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy. I expect the results will be drastically different. Stay tuned...

[ColdBeerHere]

CBH-

I'm going to run the numbers to see what the profit would look like if you followed a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy. I expect the results will be drastically different. Stay tuned...

ok great, let me know

[samrock67]

Awesome stuff...

So if you use the following system:

A bet- risk 1 unit
B bet- risk 2 units
C bet- risk 4 units
D bet- risk 8 units

You would be up 40.95 units as of today. awesome, awesome stuff...especially knowing that the most you risk per series is 15 units, which you would easily lose in a regular series loss anyway.

[laca07]

Good stuff here, CBH & samrock. Thanks very much. Sam - how long would you take you to run #s on Stif's plays from last season? Probably not worth your time, just curious.

[ColdBeerHere]

Awesome stuff...

So if you use the following system:

A bet- risk 1 unit
B bet- risk 2 units
C bet- risk 4 units
D bet- risk 8 units

You would be up 40.95 units as of today. awesome, awesome stuff...especially knowing that the most you risk per series is 15 units, which you would easily lose in a regular series loss anyway.

very nice...Ya I think I am up around 12 or 13 units just in the two days I have bet it

[samrock67]

4/11/2013

Current Stifler record: 23-0
RL Record: 21-0(+21.00u*), 2 series pending(-1.78u in play)
* Assumes you are trying to win 1u per series

Bet Records
A bet: 8-14
B bet: 7-7
C bet: 4-2
D bet: 2-0

11.04.2013

S3

(B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09 | LA Angels -1.5(+158) 1.76u
(A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle -1.5(+135) .641u

[TheDarkKnight01]

good stuff here, keep up the great work buddy.

[samrock67]

I'm considering making my life and hopefully the rest of yours easier by changing the format of my posts.

Since the 1-2-4-8 system seems to be more profitable, and it is much easier to keep track of, would everyone be ok if I switched my posts to using that betting strategy?

A bet- risk 1 unit
B bet- risk 2 units
C bet- risk 4 units
D bet- risk 8 units

You would be up 41 units to date(40.95 to be exact) using this system.

This is what today's card would look like:

S3

(C Bet) LAA -1.5, 4u
(A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle -1.5, 1u

[cooler54]

wow interesting stuff guys...with the +41 units so far a huge chunk of that is coming from the +money u are making from taking the runline i assume? whereas with stiflers ml system it would be 23 units so far?

[samrock67]

wow interesting stuff guys...with the +41 units so far a huge chunk of that is coming from the +money u are making from taking the runline i assume? whereas with stiflers ml system it would be 23 units so far?

the +41 units is if you follow the 1-2-4-8 betting strategy, and yes, it's from taking every game at -1.5, when the odds are anywhere from +100 to +180(usually average +150).

[ColdBeerHere]

That would be awesome Sam if you just went with the 1-2-4-8......Like you said a losing series is only 15u

[samrock67]

Ok, since CBH seems to be the only person who is ACTUALLY using this thread to bet, I will honor him by switching to his betting strategy.

From now on, the system will reflect the following betting strategy:

A bet: Risk 1 unit
B bet: Risk 2 units
C bet: Risk 4 units
D bet: Risk 8 units

This way, the most you will ever stand to lose on a series is 15 units(pretty cheap for a 4-game chase). As you can plainly see, the +41 units through 21 wins amounts to an average of almost 2 units/series...

Looking forward to seeing the success continue!

[samrock67]

Seem to have jinxed myself...

Looks like we are looking at the 1st loss of the season as the White Sox are about to drop 3 straight after winning the first game by 1.