30% is def a chunk which is why i wonder how this would do with doing -1 runline to protect from those 1 run losses which will eventually add up
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Comment -
Just bear in mind that following a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy counters the expected increase in losses by significantly reducing the amount you will lose on a series. A series loss can be anywhere from 20-50 units whereas here every loss is always 15u.
Only time will tell if the wins can stay ahead of the losses....Comment -
And, for what it's worth, I am making note of when a chase covers by 1 run and whether it still continues to cover if you continue the chase regardless.Comment -
4/16/13
Current Stifler record: 28-1, -8.503u
RL Record: 25-1(+41.83u), 2 series pending(-2u in play)
Bet Records
A bet: 9-19
B bet: 9-8
C bet: 4-4
D bet: 3-1
4/15 RECAP
S3
(D Bet) Oak: Oak -1.5(+110) 8u +1.1u
(A Bet) Tor: Toronto -1.5(+145) 1u
(A Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(+125) 1u
Pending:
S3 Tor, B Bet on 4/16/13
S3 SD fade, B Bet on 4/16/13Comment -
4/16
(B Bet) S3 Tor:Tor -1.5(+135) 2u
(B Bet) S3 SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(+125) 2u
(A Bet) S3 Baltimore: Baltimore -1.5(+160) 1uComment -
Thanks for doing all of this samrock. Excuse my question, I am not quite sure I am completely understanding everything quite yet. Since the system currently has 1 loss (25 - 1) then wouldn't that mean that for our A,B,C,D records we should have one loss reflected in our D bet record? It seems like the only way the system could have a loss is if we lose our D bet. Right now I am seeing the D bet record as a perfect 3 - 0. Where am I misunderstanding the system?
Sorry, this is probably a dumb question,,,just getting the hang of it.
Thanks in advance and again thanks for putting this together!Comment -
Nice to cash that Oakland D bet
Comment -
Good luck tonight guys,
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BOL guys, let's keep this rolling!Comment -
Using the +odds at 1 2 4 8? Not trying to win 1 unit per series? Just trying to make sure I understand your up +41 units with a 25 win series record and 1 loss... where 1 loss would be like 4-5 units so +20 units if you were trying to just win 1 unit per series. Curious to how this turns out. Might be onto some thing, but if i am not mistaken guy named darknight tested some thing like this before.... I think he only did it to win 1 unit per series though which is why he might of failed.
Good LuckComment -
Correct JM- not trying to win 1 unit per series here...a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy will always yield >1 unit(unless the line is +100) and a loss is 15u(1+2+4+8). What I hope is that the increase in average units won/series will stay ahead of the inevitable additional losses.Comment -
4/17/13
Current Stifler record: 29-1, -7.503u
RL Record: 25-1(+41.83u), 3 series pending(-7u in play)
Bet Records
A bet: 9-20
B bet: 9-10
C bet: 4-4
D bet: 3-1
4/16 RECAP
S3
(B Bet) S3 Tor:Tor -1.5(+135) 2u
(B Bet) S3 SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(+125) 2u
(A Bet) S3 Baltimore: Baltimore -1.5(+160) 1u
Pending:
S3 Tor, C Bet on 4/17/13
S3 SD fade, C Bet on 4/17/13
S3 Baltimore, B Bet on 4/17/13Comment -
4/17/13
(C Bet) S3 Tor: Tor -1.5(+145) 4u
(C Bet) S3 SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(-120) 4u
(B Bet) S3 Baltimore: Bal -1.5(+190) 2u**
**Alternative options: ML(+101) or +1.5(-155)
I am going to keep track of Stifler's pitching system as well, so I will post those bets too. Today's P2 looks as follows:
(A Bet) Masterson: Cle -1.5(+145) 1uComment -
Eh, screw it...I'm following the Pitching System as well....BR I am using is small so no biggie...So if I can turn it into something it will be cool if not no big deal....
I think that Dodgers game is the first game we had to pay juice on -1.5
Hate payin' juice
Comment -
If you want to be conservative you can drop the 1-2-4-8 down to .5-1-2-4, knowing that other systems are kicking into play and we will be getting a lot more bets as the season goes on...Comment -
Good point Sam...I like that idea....Comment -
edit. wrong thread.Comment -
Where are you getting your numbers from? Stifler had 350 series last year and 388 the year before...113-7 makes no sense whatsoever...
These numbers are based on the spreadsheet he posted on the first page, which I assume is based on this year's teams...were there only 120 series last year? This is only my first year following Stifler for MLBComment -
checking in...Comment -
Our faith will be tested once again tomorrow, barring an amazing comeback by the Jays...
R.A. Dickey on the mound for the Jays, Sale on the mound for the Sox...early RL at +160 on 5DComment -
Hi Sam,
Yes I generally also apply a stratagey like that... although mine is usually less aggressive than yours. usually 1 - 1.5 - 2 - 2.5
But thats usually took keep the bet size from escalating when playing point spread. However, with run-line we keep the bet size from escalating because the odds are better, (nothing escalates your bet more than getting a line of 1.5 or -200.)
So I'm happy to see this, I made some real good profit last year. Unfortunately, the teams still have to win, and many of us from Stiflers, have had a rough time.
Will follow.Comment -
4/18/13
Current Stifler record: 29-1, -7.503u
RL Record: 25-1(+41.83u), 4 series pending(-18u in play)
Bet Records
A bet: 9-21
B bet: 9-11
C bet: 4-6
D bet: 3-1
4/17 RECAP
S3
(C Bet) S3 Tor: Tor -1.5(+145) 4u
(C Bet) S3 SD fade: LA Dodgers -1.5(-120) 4u
(B Bet) S3 Baltimore: Bal -1.5(+190) 2u**
**Alternative options: ML(+101) or +1.5(-155)
(A Bet) Masterson: Cle -1.5(+145) 1u
Pending:
S3 Tor, D bet on 4/18/13
S3 SD fade, D bet on 4/19/13
S3 Bal, C bet on 4/18/13
P2 Masterson, B Bet on next startComment -
Not happy about that Dodgers loss last night...oh well. For those of you who are playing Stifler and keeping an eye on this thread, there is a good chance that I personally will be switching completely to the RL system and perhaps dropping it down to .5-1-2-4. For the Dodgers D bet tomorrow night I will probably be betting on the RL regardless, and a loss would completely cripple my bankroll. I don't know if Stifler's numbers from the backtesting are just super misleading or if the system is underperforming early(which would just be a shame), but I can't afford to be playing catch-up the whole season. At least with this system I know that the most I stand to lose is 7.5 units per series(.5-1-2-4) or 15 if I bump it up to 1-2-4-8. If the regular Stifler system picks up steam I may jump back on. I'm at a loss right now, as the Angels and Dodgers have just completely crushed what I thought was going to be a super profitable year. Not losing hope just yet, but disappointed in early losses. Anyway, bets for today:
(D Bet) S3 Tor:Tor -1.5(+170) 8u
(C Bet) S3 Bal: Bal -1.5(+225) 4u**
(A Bet) P1 Price fade: Bal -1.5(+225) 1u**
(A Bet) P2 Price fade: Bal -1.5(+225) 1u**
** Alternative options: ML(+111) and +1.5(-155)Comment -
So when you put alternative options, are you counting a -1.5 RL as a loss if it doesnt cover and the ML or +1.5 as wins if they do?Comment -
Sorry for misleading record. The one I posted was for a different system. I will edit the post if I can. I got mixed up with the RL system based on another system.
All the talk in here from .5-1-2-4 to 1-2-4-8 has good merit. I would apply the .5-1-2-4 at first, than if you lose a series up the next few series to 1-2-4-8 until you reach a profit again.
There was another system that took the biggest favorite of the day at -1RL and would run a chase with it. If a chase lost he would play next few series for 1.25units until all the money was made back. If he lost another series during that time before the money was made back he would up it again. Even at 2-4-8-16, you are only looking at 30 units which is not bad at all. I might jump on board this train if my labby starts getting too out of hand. Right now its fine even though I am down 5.5units this week. My bets are still only 2u to win 1.5u based on the odds. If I have to start making 5-10 unit bets, than this system would have some good merit.
Just my 2 cents
I really hope this system works out well.
PPS
You ever hear of Wallco's 1-3-5 system? Its a money management strategy for the NBA based on John Morrison system. A = to win 1 unit, B = to win 1 unit loss + 3 additional units, C is to win A + B loss + 5 addtional units. The deeper the series went the more profit the system made as long as it did not lose all 3. Its a money management recovery system and showed a decent profit over 10 years of NBA testing he did. He is now testing a 1-7-5 system. The difference with this system is that say stifler wins ML, but you lose RL. He would drop the series and take the 1u loss. If ML lost than obviously RL lost as well, so you would continue onto B.
Just some different things to think about as you are learning the best way to run this system. I am not suggesting doing this right away until proper test is made. Just trying to think outside the box.Comment -
checking in (late I know)Comment -
Good stuff sam... I like what I am seeing in here. I wish I had a few free weeks to backtest it!
Everything looks great so far though. The only recommendation I would have is similar to what JMD said.. If Stiffler's version 1 system gets a win (meaning if a team wins by only 1 run), yet this system loses due to the fact that the -1.5 did not cover, I think it might be beneficial to quit the series at that point and recover the losses later. Since the risk amount is so small with this system, you could easily just take the total loss and add 20% to each of the next 5 series until it is recovered.
The nice thing about systems like this is that winning a bet on the C or D bet means more profit then if the bet would have won on the A or B bet.. So A and B losses are actually good in theory (as long as they win later)!
BOLComment -
JMD and dlunc-
Thanks for the support. I am going to be putting a lot more work into this later in the season. I'm finishing up my second year of med school so things have been busy and are only getting busier, but starting July I will be doing some major work- full back testing, devising the best betting strategy, and possibly developing a system or 2(independent of this one) that I hope to be in place by mid July and if not then next year(I won't reveal too much but the numbers look promising).
I'm also very eager to see how things play out.
as for stopping a series when it loses on Stifler- ill have to check when I get home(on my phone now) but I think that would take away close to 50% of the series and potentially a larger percentage of the profit. I will check in again later tonight with the numbers.Comment -
Also, JMD-
The misleading records I was talking about where the ones Stifler posted at the beginning of his thread. I don't mean to say they aren't correct, I just think that there is a chance they are based on the current teams and pitchers in Stiflers system and may not necessarily be reflective of how the system will perform on a yearly basis. I could be wrong. I hope I am.Comment -
Congrats with med school. Will look forward to back tested results. Some of these systems the units on C and D are just crazy amounts with these MLB favorites. I have 9 games so far today and 0-3 so far. Yesterday went 4-8. Really puts a quick dent in your BR. I am just so glad I am not chasing with a traditional format. Constantly seeking and revising my plan. Favorites similar to last year are not doing so well this week.Comment -
Book it, boys...another D bet success
Maybe the O's bats will wake up in these last 3 innings and make this a great night...Comment -
Sweeet!
Manage to get 8.2 units on this D bet win!Comment -
Booooooooooooommm......now
Let's get those O's bets !!!Comment
