Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

[samrock67]

That would be awesome Sam if you just went with the 1-2-4-8......Like you said a losing series is only 15u

Yea, it just makes sense given the odds we've been getting. Ironically the later in the series it gets, the more we seem to profit. I'll have to mess around with different betting patterns and see what happens.

[illisdre]

if LAA can't beat seattle.. theyre just going to keep screwing us.. Have they won a single game in our series?

[samrock67]

Yea, I think the Angels are a team that looked good on paper and they're just turning out to be a disaster.

[ColdBeerHere]

what was the final unit tally for yesterday ?...It took me a while to get my deposit through so I was only able to play some of the games...But I ended up being 11 units down....ouch.....

[samrock67]

4/25/13

Current Stifler record: 55-1, +18.497u, 7 series pending
RL Record: 45-5(+20.09u), 11 series pending(-27u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 20-41
B bet: 13-20
C bet: 6-10
D bet: 6-5

4/24 RECAP
(D Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+125) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Tor fade: NYY -1.5(+140) 8u WINNER +4.2u
(D Bet) S3 Tex fade: Min -1.5(+192) 8u
(C Bet) S2 LAA: LAA -1.5(+135) 4u
(B Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(+140) 2u WINNER +1.8u
(B Bet) P1 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 2u
(B Bet) P2 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Hou fade: Bos -1.5(-130) 1u WINNER +.77u
(A Bet) S3 NYY: NYY -1.5(+140) 1u WINNER 1.4u
(A Bet) S3 Cin fade: Was -1.5(+160) 1u WINNER +1.6u
(A Bet S3 TB fade: CWS -1.5(+165) 1u WINNER +1.65u
(A Bet) S3 Bal fade: Oak -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) P1 Kuroda: NYY -1.5(+140) 1u WINNER +1.4u

Pending:
S2 LAA, D bet on 4/26/13
S1 Col fade, B bet on 4/26/13
S3 Bal fade, B bet on 4/26/13
S3 Oak, B bet on 4/26/13
P2 Masterson, C bet next start
P1, P2 Hudson, C bet next start
P1, P2 Buehrle, C bet next start
P1, P2 Fister, B bet next start(4/28)

[samrock67]

4/26/13

(D Bet) LAA: LAA -1.5(+120) 8u
(B Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5(+145) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Bal fade: Oak -1.5(+170) 2u
(B Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5(+170) 2u

[ColdBeerHere]

4/25/13

Current Stifler record: 55-1, +18.497u, 7 series pending
RL Record: 45-5(+20.09u), 11 series pending(-27u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 20-41
B bet: 13-20
C bet: 6-10
D bet: 6-5

4/24 RECAP
(D Bet) S1 Pit fade: Phi -1.5(+125) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Tor fade: NYY -1.5(+140) 8u WINNER +4.2u
(D Bet) S3 Tex fade: Min -1.5(+192) 8u
(C Bet) S2 LAA: LAA -1.5(+135) 4u
(B Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5(+140) 2u WINNER +1.8u
(B Bet) P1 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 2u
(B Bet) P2 Buehrle: Tor -1.5(**) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Hou fade: Bos -1.5(-130) 1u WINNER +.77u
(A Bet) S3 NYY: NYY -1.5(+140) 1u WINNER 1.4u
(A Bet) S3 Cin fade: Was -1.5(+160) 1u WINNER +1.6u
(A Bet S3 TB fade: CWS -1.5(+165) 1u WINNER +1.65u
(A Bet) S3 Bal fade: Oak -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5(+160) 1u
(A Bet) P1 Kuroda: NYY -1.5(+140) 1u WINNER +1.4u

Pending:
S2 LAA, D bet on 4/26/13
S1 Col fade, B bet on 4/26/13
S3 Bal fade, B bet on 4/26/13
S3 Oak, B bet on 4/26/13
P2 Masterson, C bet next start
P1, P2 Hudson, C bet next start
P1, P2 Buehrle, C bet next start
P1, P2 Fister, B bet next start(4/28)

Sam, maybe I haven't quite woken up yet...But shouldn't these unit total be higher ?

[samrock67]

Sam, maybe I haven't quite woken up yet...But shouldn't these unit total be higher ?

S3 Tor fade: (8u risk * 1.4) = 11.2 - 7u = 4.2u profit

S1 NYY: (2u risk * 1.4) = 2.8 - 1u = 1.8u profit

Don't think my math is off...

[dalogester]

can we start getting some series where we fade LAA for -1.5 units please? LOL

[samrock67]

can we start getting some series where we fade LAA for -1.5 units please? LOL

LOL I would think at this point the LAA should be classified as "AUTO-FADE"

[samrock67]

Reminder that I will not be able to post tomorrow, so please refer to post #251 for any potential C bets tomorrow and please refer here for any A bets tomorrow:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2253014-mlb-chase-2013-a.html

I assume ColdBeerHere will probably post tomorrow's bets at some point, so thanks in advance.

[illisdre]

thanks sam!

[ColdBeerHere]

OK guys here we go with today's picks...Looks like we got a double dose of New York along with some "C" bets

Saturday 4/27/13

S1

(A Bet) NYY: NY Yankees -1.5 (+145) 1u

S2

(A Bet) Phil fade: NY Mets -1.5 (+160) 1u
(C Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5 (+135) 4u
(C Bet) S3 Bal fade: Oak -1.5 (+150) 4u
(C Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5 (+150) 4u

[ColdBeerHere]

[illisdre]

there we go again.. oakland up 2.. and fukin griffin lets two home runs rip and how many walks

[samrock67]

4/28/13

Current Stifler record: 56-1, +19.497u, 11 series pending
RL Record: 48-6(+23.09u), 12 series pending(-36u in play)

Bet Records
A bet: 22-44
B bet: 13-27
C bet: 6-16
D bet: 7-6

[ColdBeerHere]

ouch....we need some wins

[samrock67]

4/28/13

(D Bet) S1 Col fade: Ari -1.5(+145) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Bal fade:Oak -1.5(+140) 8u
(D Bet) S3 Oak: Oak -1.5(+140) 8u
(B Bet) S1 NYY: NYY -1.5 (+180) 2u
(B Bet) S2 Phi fade: NYM -1.5(**) 2u
(B Bet) P1 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 2u
(B Bet) P2 Fister: Det -1.5(+150) 2u
(A Bet) S1 Stl: Stl -1.5(+110) 1u
(A Bet) S1 SD fade: SF-1.5(+140) 1u

[dalogester]

This is an absolutely huge day for this and stiflers system. An Oakland win by 2 would be monstrous.

[ColdBeerHere]

This is an absolutely huge day for this and stiflers system. An Oakland win by 2 would be monstrous.

Monsterous would be a good description. ?..this a agood day roday would give a nice cushion to move forward with the system. ?...
Comeon Oakland ! One time!!!

[ColdBeerHere]

Sorry aboutthecrappytypingbut I just gotmyfirst tablet and I am trying to figure out keybaord....I cant see wheni type forsomereason, lol

[ColdBeerHere]

Normally iam oNly playing the RRL on "A" bets....likethe mets today....but I sometimes go outside the box like with the yankees today...mayb1eim being a homer but im playing the RRL with them

[illisdre]

dam.. i like the A,B, bets,,, Oak is scary.. those guys can't hit a run recently

Good luck!

[ColdBeerHere]

Gettin depressing looking at all the scores....hate to sayit butif oakland doesnt hit im switching to a new system.....I've b1een meaning to start a new system...I finally have some time on my hands.....even f oakland does hit I will probably still start a new system

[whiteboy14]

Gettin depressing looking at all the scores....hate to sayit butif oakland doesnt hit im switching to a new system.....I've b1een meaning to start a new system...I finally have some time on my hands.....even f oakland does hit I will probably still start a new system

I'm going to have to bow out too if the A's cant pull it off. I believe in the system, I just wasn't in early enough to catch the hot start and build up my bankroll.....now the cold streak is going to send me packing. Good luck the rest of the way.

[samrock67]

Gettin depressing looking at all the scores....hate to sayit butif oakland doesnt hit im switching to a new system.....I've b1een meaning to start a new system...I finally have some time on my hands.....even f oakland does hit I will probably still start a new system

Something on here or your own thing?

[ColdBeerHere]

Something on here or your own thing?

My own thing....but like I said if oakland hits I might still follow this....just I have been meaning to get something cooking with runlines.....

[ColdBeerHere]

Well arizona hit but lookslike we are gonna need a 3 or 4 run HR in Oakland....Not good......

[illisdre]

hey guys... well we been hit by a disaster .. i think thats obvious .. at this rate were not going to survive long.

I'm hoping the system gets back on the "projected path".. luck has been against us in most cases.

And because of that... im going to be reducing my unit size, rendering the system as a small time experiment. Many of you I assume are using $10 Units... (i had originally been wanting to use $20). Im going to move this down to $5..

my fear is that once i do the system will start cashing. But its a mitigation strategy... and i don't want to wipe my BR.

[samrock67]

Still have a shot at the 2 D bets with a 2-run walk off or better...it's happened...

[whiteboy14]

Wow. Had a chance. That one hurts

[samrock67]

So, in the interest of betting on the RL, I decided to get creative and did a quick backtest on this season of teams with a positive run differential(which you would think is a good indicator of covering the RL) at this point to see what the numbers would look like if you continuously had tailed all of these teams from the beginning of the season and just chased them continuously. The teams that qualify:

Boston
NYY
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Detroit
Texas
Oakland
Atlanta
NY Mets
Pittsburgh
St Louis
Cincinatti
Arizona
Colorado
San Fran

The overall record is 168-19, and based on the 1-2-4-8 strategy, would mean that those 168 wins would have to be averaging a profit of 1.69u/win just to break even. I haven't run those numbers yet because that would take more time, but perhaps tomorrow I'll buckle down and run it just to see where things would stand.

[ColdBeerHere]

I'm going to try and put something together in the next few days...It will be good since we are about a month into the season with some stats to work with....

I am doing something similar to your idea with higher scoring teams

[illisdre]

The overall record is 168-19, and based on the 1-2-4-8 strategy, would mean that those 168 wins would have to be averaging a profit of 1.69u/win just to break even. I haven't run those numbers yet because that would take more time, but perhaps tomorrow I'll buckle down and run it just to see where things would stand.

168-19 .. 19 losses of 15u = 285u

That seems like a hefty loss number.
I like the RL... but i was hoping it wouldn't yield so many losses.

One simple way to make Stiflers system less risky, would be to play the heavy juice games as -1.5. Frankly playing on 1.5 odds for baseball is not my idea of value in almost any circumstance (particularly when we do not pick the games, the system picks the games).


However, we are at the 2.0 system because we want a lil more, and risk a lil less. Im hoping you guys find something, I'll try to pitch in my 2 cents.

[samrock67]

168-19 .. 19 losses of 15u = 285u

That seems like a hefty loss number.
I like the RL... but i was hoping it wouldn't yield so many losses.

One simple way to make Stiflers system less risky, would be to play the heavy juice games as -1.5. Frankly playing on 1.5 odds for baseball is not my idea of value in almost any circumstance (particularly when we do not pick the games, the system picks the games).


However, we are at the 2.0 system because we want a lil more, and risk a lil less. Im hoping you guys find something, I'll try to pitch in my 2 cents.

Looking at the numbers from the current RL system, the average profit per win is 1.74 units, so if that held true for this, the system would be in profit, albeit only by 7 units. I was just messing around to see what the numbers looked like, I have no plans to implement the system anytime soon. I just figured that Run Differential would be a good indicator as to what teams cover the RL more often than others.