UFC 268: Namajunas vs. Zhang MMA Odds and Betting Picks

A championship rematch between Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili highlights a tremendous UFC 268 card. Thug Rose knocked Zhang out cold with a head kick in April and now Zhang is looking to exact her revenge. Will Rose defend her title? Find out how we lean in our Namajunas and Zhang picks.

Namajunas is the sitting UFC women's strawweight champion and is 8-3 in the UFC. She's won two straight fights and five out of six overall. Just one of those wins went to decision. Zhang is 5-1 in the UFC and her previous loss to Thug Rose was her first since 2013. She's won by decision three times and stoppage twice.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday's women's strawweight UFC matchup between Namajunas and Zhang (Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Namajunas vs. Zhang Match Info

Date/Time: Saturday, November 6, 10 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Namajunas vs. Zhang Betting Odds Analysis

There are varying odds across sites so make sure you shop around. Thug Rose has +105 odds from DraftKings but is -105 or -110 at most other books. She opened at -125 odds, so this shift is notable.

Zhang is getting considerable action after going from +100 to -120 at most sites. Bettors are expecting revenge for the title.

Rose Namajunas Betting Profile

Namajunas' return to action against Zhang back in April was as impressive as it gets. She finished a tenacious competitor in just 78 seconds, by far her shortest match. Zhang was her first opponent not named Jessica Andrade or Joanna Jedrzejczyk since 2017.

Namajunas' last loss to Andrade came via TKO after she was slammed by the larger athlete. Rose almost always wins the striking battle and is an excellent grappler on the ground but is vulnerable against larger opponents.

Zhang Weili Betting Profile

Zhang had won 21 straight matches until Rose knocked her out, meaning vengeance is certainly on her mind. She is a powerful fighter who theoretically is a problematic matchup against Rose. Three of her UFC fights have ended in the first round.

Namajunas vs. Zhang Betting Picks

Zhang (-125) ????Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+330) ?

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Namajunas vs. Zhang Betting Predictions

Zhang to win (-125) ????

It's hard to consider anything we saw in the last fight as predictive for this matchup. Rose is a phenomenal fighter on the ground and has length while standing. She's proven to be strong and tenacious with punches and will outclass most boxers. But Zhang fits the prototype of a rocked-up, physical boxer who can spray jabs that cause more damage than Rose's peppering hits.

Both of their matchups against Andrade are most telling of how a multi-round battle should go. Unless Namajunas can get Zhang to the ground, Zhang can stand up and withstand some hits and deliver powerful blows that will quickly rack up damage. I think Zhang is the better striker and will avoid going to the ground despite being respectable on her back.

Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+330) ?

Both fighters' resumes are filled with finishes in the third or fifth round. I'd be shocked to see this one go the distance considering Rose's ground game and Zhang's overall power. Expect an emotional battle with numerous momentum swings.

Playing the decision brings a smaller reward for us, and Rose's lack of bulk and size stands out at every angle of the matchup. I like Zhang to take power swings in the third round and log a TKO to reclaim her title.

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Picks made 11/03/2021 at 10:32 p.m. ET