UFC 331 Best Bets for Los Angeles: Tsarukyan ITD, Pantoja Submission & More

Saturday's UFC 331 card at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles is headlined by Joshua Van defending the flyweight title against former champion Alexandre Pantoja. Arman Tsarukyan meets Mauricio Ruffy in a five-round lightweight co-main event, while Iwo Baraniewski, Gable Steveson, and Patricio Pitbull round out the main card. My UFC 331 best bets stay away from most straight moneylines and target specific outcomes instead.

My top pick is Tsarukyan to beat Ruffy inside the distance at -155. I'm also backing Pantoja to submit Van, Baraniewski to score another first-round knockout, and Charles Jourdain to outpoint Marlon Vera on the prelims.

💰 UFC 331 best bets

See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights.

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🚀 My best UFC 331 pick: Tsarukyan inside the distance (-155) vs. Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy is dangerous enough on the feet that I don't want Arman Tsarukyan spending five rounds testing his striking. The easier path is wrestling, and we've already seen Ruffy struggle when an opponent commits to it. Benoit Saint Denis landed three takedowns, controlled him for 4:38, and eventually submitted him with a rear-naked choke in Round 2.

Tsarukyan averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and turns that pressure into finishes. He overwhelmed Dan Hooker with two takedowns and 6:02 of control before securing an arm-triangle in the second round. He also owns recent knockout wins over Beneil Dariush and Joaquim Silva.

Ruffy's power keeps the straight moneyline interesting, but five rounds give Tsarukyan plenty of time to find a finish. At -155, I'll back his wrestling and ground offense to end this before the scorecards.

🔥 More UFC 331 predictions

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Pantoja by submission (+270) vs. Van

The first fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van gave us almost nothing to handicap. Pantoja suffered an arm injury just 26 seconds in, handing Van the belt. The rematch should tell us much more about how Van handles one of the best grapplers the division has seen.

Pantoja has an obvious path. He submitted Kai Asakura with a rear-naked choke in 2024, then did the same to Kai Kara-France in his next title defense. Against Kara-France, he got the fight down almost immediately, controlled the opening round, and eventually took the back for the finish in Round 3.

Van owns 81% takedown defense, so this isn't an easy assignment. Still, +270 only needs to hit about 27% of the time. If Pantoja wins, I think his back-taking and submission game offer the most appealing route.

Baraniewski Round 1 KO/TKO (+110) vs. Menifield

Iwo Baraniewski hasn't shown much interest in letting his fights develop. He's 9-0 with nine first-round finishes, including seven knockouts, and his last three UFC wins ended at 1:29, 0:28, and 1:25 of Round 1.

Alonzo Menifield gives him another matchup where an early knockout is very live. Menifield was stopped by Volkan Oezdemir in 1:27 last November, Carlos Ulberg knocked him out in 12 seconds, and Azamat Murzakanov also finished him with strikes in 2024.

Baraniewski still gets hit, which makes laying a big moneyline price less appealing. I'm happy to embrace the volatility instead. We've barely seen him operate outside the opening minutes of a fight, and at +110, I'm betting his power produces one more fast start.

Jourdain by decision (-125) vs. Vera

Charles Jourdain finally looks settled at bantamweight. He's 3-0 since dropping to 135 pounds, submitting Victor Henry and Davey Grant before taking a unanimous decision over Kyler Phillips earlier this year. Marlon Vera comes in going the other direction with four straight losses.

The striking numbers favor Jourdain's ability to bank minutes. He lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25. Vera lands 4.18 and absorbs 5.34, and his last loss to David Martinez saw him outlanded 71-42 in significant strikes.

Vera's granite chin makes this an easy decision bet. Each fight during his current four-fight skid has reached the scorecards. Jourdain should be busier and cleaner over three rounds, but I'm not counting on him to put Chito away. 

📝 UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 fight card

• Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja, Flyweight (title)
• Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Lightweight
• Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi, Featherweight
• Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf, Heavyweight
• Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski, Light Heavyweight
• Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain, Bantamweight
• Tai Tuivasa vs. Robelis Despaigne, Heavyweight
• Michael Aswell Jr. vs. JooSang Yoo, Featherweight
• Ryan Gandra vs. Ozzy Diaz, Middleweight
• Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira, Middleweight
• Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura, Flyweight
• Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito, Featherweight

💡 How I'm betting UFC 331

I'm leaning almost entirely into method-of-victory markets for UFC 331. Tsarukyan is a sizable favorite, Baraniewski is around -245 just to win, and Pantoja gives us a much bigger number if we're willing to be specific about how he gets his hand raised. The straight moneylines don't interest me nearly as much as those individual outcomes.

Tsarukyan is the one I'm willing to pay juice on because the matchup gives him multiple finishing routes. Ruffy has already been submitted after struggling with sustained wrestling, while Tsarukyan has the ground-and-pound and submission game to punish him if the fight stays there.

Pantoja at +270 is the higher-variance play. Van is difficult to control, but Pantoja's recent title run was built around getting to dominant grappling positions and taking the back. Baraniewski's bet is even more aggressive, but nine first-round finishes in nine professional wins make Round 1 the natural place to attack him.

Jourdain by decision rounds out the card. Recently, all Vera has done is lose rounds without threatening a finish.

📺 How to watch UFC 331

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 19
• Time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
• TV: Paramount+