Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction, Picks & Odds: Get Ready for Chiwiwis
My Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos prediction for UFC Vegas 121 betting preview backs Rosas in Saturday's bantamweight main event at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Rosas - whose “Chiwiwis” celebration has made him popular - is a -172 betting favorite. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET.
Rosas and Barcelos are both on five-fight win streaks. Barcelos owns 88% takedown defense and lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute, but Rosas is 18 years younger and averages 6.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s youth vs. experience in this main event.
🩸 Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos predictions: UFC Vegas 121
See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights.
| Market | Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick to win | Rosas Jr. to win | -172 via FanDuel | 1.5 units to win 0.87 |
| Method of victory | Rosas Jr. by points | +230 via BetMGM | 0.5 units to win 1.15 |
| Best bet | Rosas Jr. by submission or points | -115 via FanDuel | 3 units to win 2.61 |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 4.63 units
💰 Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos best bet: Rosas Jr. by submission or points (-115)
Rosas by submission or decision removes the KO, which is least likely, in my eyes. He has only two knockouts in 12 career wins, while Barcelos has been stopped by strikes once in 27 pro fights.
Rosas landed 16 takedowns and controlled Rob Font for 10:05 in March, but Barcelos owns 88% takedown defense. Barcelos' resistance should push this fight deep. If the 39-year-old fades, a late submission remains live. At -115, I prefer covering both likely routes to laying -172 on the moneyline.
It should be time for Chiwiwis.
🆚 Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos fight preview
Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.
Barcelos is the cleaner striker, landing 4.65 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy, and his 88% takedown defense presents a serious test. He also landed six takedowns and logged 7:45 of control against Montel Jackson in April, so Rosas cannot count on easy grappling exchanges.
Rosas has leaned on control during this streak. He landed 16 of 18 takedowns against Font, four against Vince Morales, and three against Aoriqileng, winning each by decision. Barcelos should have cleaner moments early, but I trust Rosas' youth and repeated entries to take over as the fight reaches the championship rounds.
With similar skillsets on either side, the fighter with the better gas tank will win.
Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. to win (-172 via FanDuel)
📊 Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos odds
Odds via FanDuel; subject to change.
| Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| -172 | Win outright | +134 |
| +600 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +500 |
| +330 | Win by submission | +1500 |
| +230 | Win by decision | +300 |
⚖️ Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos tale of the tape
| Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Age | 39 |
| 5'9" | Height | 5'7" |
| 135 lbs | Weight | 135 lbs |
| 67 in | Reach | 67 in |
| 12-1 | Record | 22-5 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 6 | Wins by submission | 3 |
📺 How to watch Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos: UFC Vegas 121
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Time: 8 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: Meta APEX (Las Vegas)
- TV: Paramount+
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