Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja Prediction, Picks & Odds: Pantoja Will Get Revenge

Our Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja prediction in this UFC 331 betting preview backs Pantoja to reclaim the flyweight title Saturday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Pantoja is a +106 underdog at FanDuel, with the main card beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Van has won seven straight and stopped Tatsuro Taira in Round 5 in May. Still, Taira also landed eight takedowns and had Van in trouble on the ground. Pantoja's durability and back-taking ability give the former champion a route to wear Van down and reclaim the belt after an injury spoiled the first Van-Pantoja showdown.

🩸 Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja predictions: UFC 331

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Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: +6.87 units

💰 Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja best bet: Pantoja by submission or points (+130)

Pantoja by submission or points covers two potential fight scripts. Van surrendered eight takedowns and 10:38 of control to Taira in May, while Pantoja previously landed eight takedowns against Brandon Royval and nine against Steve Erceg.

Pantoja then submitted Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France in his next two wins. He has only two UFC KO victories, so I am comfortable removing the knockout route to improve the price from +106 to +130. His durability — no real KOs beyond the injury in the first fight — gives him time to keep forcing grappling exchanges.

🆚 Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja fight preview

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Van is the cleaner, busier striker, landing 8.43 significant strikes per minute. His pace broke Taira in the fifth round, but Van also absorbs 5.82 significant strikes per minute and spent more than 10 minutes under Taira's control at UFC 328. Pantoja does not need to win a pure boxing match to make this competitive.

Pantoja averages 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and has repeatedly sustained that approach over five rounds. Before the freak elbow injury in their first meeting, all five of Pantoja's career losses had come by decision. I trust that durability to keep him attacking Van's grappling defense until the fight changes.

Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja to win (+106 via FanDuel)

💡 How I'm handicapping Van vs. Pantoja

Pantoja is my 2-unit underdog play at +106. Van owns the striking edge, but the price gives me a former champion with proven five-round durability and a grappling style that attacks the biggest weakness Taira exposed in Van's last title defense.

Pantoja by submission gets 1 unit at +280. The 1.5-unit best bet on Pantoja by submission or points at +130 is the stronger derivative because it captures both likely routes to victory while discarding a KO outcome, which I trust far less. Total exposure is 4.5 units, all built around Pantoja reclaiming the belt.

📊 Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja odds

Odds via FanDuel; subject to change.

⚖️ Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja tale of the tape

📺 How to watch Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja: UFC 331

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026
• Time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
• Location: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
• Streaming: Paramount+