It's the final week of the Premier League season, and although the title and Champions League spots have been secured, there are still several very intriguing matches. Check out our Premier League props and best bets for Matchday 38 based on the best EPL odds.
Manchester City are officially the champions of England for the third straight year, as the league was decided in unceremonious fashion when Arsenal lost to Nottingham Forest last Saturday. The City players didn't let the lack of a climactic finish dampen their mood, though, as evidenced by the fact that they apparently drank all of the alcohol in Manchester while celebrating, according to manager Pep Guardiola.
The top-four teams have also been decided, with Liverpool's draw at home to Aston Villa and United's subsequent win against Chelsea sealing the former's fate.
At the bottom of the table, Leicester and Leeds will give everything they have in this final match week, as they're both only two points back of Everton for the final spot in the Premier League next season.
Here are our Premier League props and best bets for Matchday 38 (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Premier League schedule and odds for Matchday 38
(odds via DraftKings)
- Southampton (+600) vs. Liverpool (-240)
- Arsenal (-270) vs. Wolves (+700)
- Manchester United (-185) vs. Fulham (+475)
- Everton (-205) vs. Bournemouth (+550)
- Leicester (-105) vs. West Ham (+255)
- Brentford (+310) vs. Manchester City (-125)
- Crystal Palace (-145) vs. Nottingham Forest (+370)
- Leeds (+170) vs. Spurs (+140)
- Aston Villa (+105) vs. Brighton (+230)
- Chelsea (+185) vs. Newcastle (+140)
Check out our top soccer picks.
Premier League best bets for Matchday 38
- Player prop: Jamie Vardy anytime goal (+175 via FanDuel) vs. West Ham ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Parlay: Leeds double chance + both teams to score (+110 via PointsBet) vs. Spurs ⭐⭐⭐
- Spread: Liverpool -1.5 (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Southampton ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Newcastle (+140 via BetMGM) vs. Chelsea ⭐⭐⭐
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Premier League top picks
Player prop: Jamie Vardy anytime goal vs. West Ham (+175 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Of the two teams in the drop zone, Leicester have the better chance to clinch safety thanks to their superior goal differential over Leeds (and Everton, for that matter). The Foxes need all three points, and their talisman up top will answer the call following a rocky campaign.
Jamie Vardy has just three goals in the Premier League this season, but he's managed 6.7 expected goals, showing his ability to create chances but an inability to finish them. However, with safety on the line, Vardy should be locked in on Sunday and display the quality of old.
It's important to remember that this is a player who scored at least 15 Premier League goals in six of the last seven campaigns entering the 2022-23 season. Sure, he's getting a bit long in the tooth, but he showed his quality as recently as Matchdays 33 and 34, scoring in each game.
At these relatively long odds, it feels wrong not to back one of Leicester's most prolific players in a match that means more to the club than any it's played in the last five-plus years.
Parlay: Leeds double chance + both teams to score vs. Spurs (+110 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
Now, onto the other team fighting for safety. Leeds' chances of staying up are much slimmer than Leicester's due to their poor goal differential and strength of opponent (though who knows what Spurs are doing anymore). Leeds need to win their match while hoping for both Leicester and Everton to lose - if the latter draws, Leeds will need to beat Spurs by three-plus goals.
Knowing that, it's easy to see why the home side will push for goals on Sunday, which will open up the match. Spurs may be in poor form, but they're still plenty capable of scoring against the worst-defending home side in the Premier League (Leeds sit last both with their 33 goals conceded and 30.7 expected goals allowed).
I wouldn't fault anyone for simply playing the Leeds moneyline, as it comes at a significantly longer price. However, I'm not especially confident that the home side can win this match, so I prefer to play this more probable SGP at plus money.
Both PointsBet and DraftKings offer this parlay at +110. Among our other best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers this SGP at +108 and BetMGM is at +105. Caesars doesn't allow you to parlay the two markets.
Spread: Liverpool -1.5 vs. Southampton (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite a late impressive run of form, Liverpool won't finish in the top four this season after drawing Aston Villa at home. For some, the season will be defined by the resiliency shown in the latter stages of the campaign. However, for many, including Liverpool star Mohamed Salah, it's impossible to not be disappointed.
Now, in their final match of the season, Liverpool will unleash all of their frustration on the worst team in the Premier League.
Southampton have been downright pitiful this season, and they've actually been even worse at home. Their 0.56 points per match and minus-18 goal differential are easily the worst marks in home matches across the Premier League.
I considered betting on a Salah goal, but those odds are shorter than these at our best sportsbooks, and it's entirely possible Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp rotates the squad and deploys Salah off the bench.
Regardless of who starts up top for Liverpool, though, they will score plenty of goals, be it through silky-smooth play or rage-induced counterattacking madness.
PointsBet offers an equal +100 on this spread bet, making it and DraftKings the best options among our best live betting sites.
Moneyline: Newcastle ML vs. vs. Chelsea (+140 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
This is equal parts a bet on Newcastle to fight for third place and a bet against a Chelsea side just begging for the season to end. The Blues might have ruined our final bet in last week's column with their 89th-minute goal against Manchester United, but they will do no such thing this week, as we're rolling with Newcastle's moneyline in a match that should be dominated by the away team.
The Magpies need a win plus a United draw or defeat if they hope to secure third place. However, they can only control what they do, so they'll be sure to put out their best XI to fulfill their part.
Meanwhile, Chelsea are coming off an embarrassing 4-1 defeat at Old Trafford, and not even the fact that this is the club's final home match of the season can convince me to back them. Chelsea have taken five points from their last 10 Premier League matches (I had to triple-check that due to how ridiculous it sounds) and have been outscored 18-8 during that span.
For their part, Newcastle are the third-best away side in the Premier League this season at 1.72 points per match, and they've also managed the third-best goal differential in such matches.
Talent-wise, Newcastle are the far superior club and will show that again in what could serve as somewhat of an audition for their Champions League performances next season.
PointsBet and DraftKings both list the Newcastle moneyline at +135, while FanDuel and Caesars are slightly shorter at +130. Head to BetMGM to maximize your potential profit on our final best bet of the 2022-23 Premier League season.
Premier League Matchday 38 best bets made 5/26/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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