Klint Kubiak to Raiders: History of Super Bowl Coordinators Hired as Head Coaches

A week ahead of the Super Bowl, it was announced that the Seattle Seahawks' offensive play-caller would be headed to Las Vegas, with Klint Kubiak to the Raiders as the official head coaching hire for Mark Davis, Tom Brady, and John Spytek.

But with Seattle set to play in the Super Bowl on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC) from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., will Kubiak's Raiders' hire hurt the Seahawks, and should recent history impact your Super Bowl predictions? The Seahawks remain a 4.5-point betting favorite.

📜 History of Super Bowl coordinators when leaving for HC jobs

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

The "brain drain" trend: 0-5 since 2014

In recent history, Super Bowl teams have struggled when their coordinator(s) accept a head coaching job before the Big Game - those teams are 0-5 since 2014. The most prominent example of this is Kyle Shanahan, who was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons during the most infamous loss in Super Bowl history. 

With the Falcons up 28-3 on the New England Patriots midway through the third quarter of Super Bowl 51 (2016-17), Atlanta was outscored 31-0 the rest of the way and lost in overtime. The day after the Super Bowl loss, Shanahan was officially announced as the San Francisco 49ers' head coach.

It hasn't always been a curse to lose a coordinator

Given changes in the NFL coaching hiring process, coordinators accepting head coaching jobs prior to the Super Bowl was uncommon before the 1990s. And even then, the few times it happened between 1990 and 2004, it often involved dynasty-like teams losing coordinators.

The coordinators who accepted head coaching jobs before their teams played in the Super Bowl went undefeated in the Big Game between 1990 and 2004. However, each of those coordinators worked for teams with either a Pro Football Hall of Fame (or soon to be) head coach or a Pro Football Hall of Fame (or soon to be) quarterback ... or both.

Those seven coordinators all worked for head coaches who won at least two Super Bowls, and in some cases did it with hall of fame-level QBs: Bill Belichick (Bill Parcells), Dave Wannstedt and Norv Turner (Jimmy Johnson, Troy Aikman), Mike Shanahan and Ray Rhodes (George Seifert, Steve Young), Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel (Bill Belichick, Tom Brady).

*Bill Parcells, then head coach of the Patriots, effectively accepted the New York Jets' head coach job prior to New England's Super Bowl matchup with the Green Bay Packers (he brought his staff to New York with him, too, including Belichick)

🏴‍☠️ Klint Kubiak to Raiders: The "distraction" factor

See all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for Super Bowl 2026.

Can Kubiak and the Seahawks break the curse?

While the last five coordinators to accept head coaching jobs before the Super Bowl all ended up losing the Big Game, it's important to note that none of them coached for teams that were as big a favorite as the Seahawks are this Sunday.

And a key reason Seattle is a 4.5-point betting favorite against the Patriots is because of the side of the ball that Kubiak doesn't coach. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in NFL history, and as our C Jackson Cowart highlighted in his Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction & early picks, Seattle boasts a top-15 defense all-time by DVOA.

That's all because of Mike Macdonald, who could become the first defensive play-calling head coach to win a Super Bowl. So, while recent history supports the coordinator curse, I don't see it having any real merit when you dig deeper into this Seahawks team and its Super Bowl matchup.

And our Dustin Saracini doesn't see the Kubiak situation impacting Sam Darnold at all, with his Super Bowl same-game parlay backing the Pro Bowl QB to thrive.

📉 Super Bowl betting perspective: Should the line move?

Don't miss our Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction for Super Bowl 60 on Sunday.

The Seahawks are the exception to the rule

The latest Super Bowl odds have Seattle -4.5, making the Seahawks one of the biggest Super Bowl favorites in recent memory. 

In the last decade, only two teams have been as big, or bigger, a favorite as the Seahawks are against the Patriots on Sunday (the Los Angeles Rams in 2023 and the Carolina Panthers in 2016).

And despite the "coordinator curse," Kubiak accepting the Raiders head coaching job has had no impact on the odds at our best Super Bowl betting sites. Seattle opened and remains a 4.5-point favorite.

That's because on paper, the Patriots aren't even a top-five team in the NFL. They've been schedule merchants this season and rank between No. 8 and No. 10 by most advanced metrics. That's with the Seahawks overwhelmingly being ranked No. 1.

Although in most cases a coordinator for a Super Bowl team accepting a head coaching job before the biggest game of their lives should have some impact on the spread, this is the rare occurrence where it's justified that the line didn't move.

I don't think Kubiak leaving should have much influence on anyone's Seahawks vs. Patriots prediction, and I'm with our Gary Pearson in sticking with Seattle to cover.