WM Phoenix Open Picks & Outright Odds: Top Finishes, Long Shots & Hole in One Props
The 2026 PGA Tour season delivers its deepest field of the season thus far, and Scottie Scheffler sits atop the oddsboard as we make our WM Phoenix Open picks. Scheffler's +240 odds at BetMGM imply a 29.41% chance to win, putting him well ahead of other notable names in the 123-player field, including two-time tournament winners Brooks Koepka (+4500) and Hideki Matsuyama (+2500). Defending champion Thomas Detry is not in the WM Phoenix Open field.
Dubbed "The People's Open," the WM Phoenix Open is annually played at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Ariz., and will conclude on Super Bowl Sunday, typically a couple hours before kickoff.
🔥 Best WM Phoenix Open picks
Here are my best golf picks on the board for the WM Phoenix Open:
Top 5 finish: Xander Schauffele (+310)
Schauffele has had an incredible history at the WM Phoenix Open, earning four top-10 finishes and six top-25 finishes. While he's never won, these odds are far too long for a player with that much success at a single tournament. While Scheffler gets all the headlines, Schauffele has been knocking on the door for years. With his elite ball-striking consistency, course history, and coliseum composure, bet on Schauffele to finish top five.
Esten McLaren has Schauffele at No. 4 in his WM Phoenix Open power rankings.
Top 20 finish: Brooks Koepka (+200)
An outright ticket at +4000 looks like the sexy pick, but the sharper play is backing Koepka to crack the top 20. He settled for a T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, yet his tee-to-green performance was elite.
Nearly seven strokes were lost on the greens at Torrey Pines for Koepka, which points to likely positive putting regression this week. Returning to the comfortable surfaces at TPC Scottsdale, Koepka is a strong candidate to rebound and push toward the top of the leaderboard. In his last WM Phoenix Open appearance back in 2022, he tied for third at 15-under.
Will there be a hole-in-one? NO (-120)
We are revisiting this prop play after wagering it last year and losing in Round 2. I'm looking to get my revenge. The 162-yard par-3 16th has earned the nickname "the loudest hole in golf," with estimates suggesting 16,000 to 20,000 fans crammed into grandstands each year. This is where the damage has been done - we've seen 12 hole-in-ones at the tournament, with Emiliano Grillo the latest to do so in 2025. The odds are still in our favor, and I'm fading the coliseum this week.
Our Esten McLaren took a deeper look at the WM Phoenix 16th hole specials, along with all the props you should play for this week. Here's a snippet of his best prop for one of the most famous holes in golf:
🎯 Closest to the pin on No. 16 (Round 1): Sam Burns +9600
Burns ranks third on the PGA Tour with an average proximity of 19-feet-1 on approaches from 150-175 yards this season. Though he's had just five such attempts (including from the fairway and rough), he was 65th last season as well at 27-feet-5.
Burns has also made two birdies out of nine holes where he approached the green from 150-175 yards. That 22.22% birdie-or-better percentage is good enough to rank 38th on Tour early in the season. As a bonus, Burns is fourth on Tour this season in par-3 scoring average, and he ranked 37th last season in the same metric.
💸 WM Phoenix Open long shots: Best sleeper picks
Before I get into my favorite sleeper pick for the WM Phoenix Open, here are the best value plays on the board.
| Player | Best Odds | Recent Form | Course History |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Knapp | +5000 | T-5 (Farmers) | Trending up |
| Sahith Theegala | +4500 | T-7 (Farmers) | Multiple Top 10s |
| Keith Mitchell | +7500 | T-11 (Farmers) | 4 Top 25s in 6 years |
| C. Bezuidenhout | +8000 | T-27 (Farmers) | T-4 last year |
Sahith Theegala (+4500)
Though his odds are shortening, Theegala often fluctuates in the long-shot range. He famously nearly won here as a rookie and thrives in the "Coliseum" atmosphere. Theegala has two top 5 finishes, placing third in his rookie season. At +4500 betting odds, you could do worse.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000)
The South African is often overlooked because he isn't a "bomber," but his precision and elite short game make him a threat on this layout. He finished T-4 here last year. He excels at avoiding bogeys and scrambling, which is critical when the greens get firm and fast in the Arizona sun. If he can continue to avoid a dreaded blowup hole, Bezuidenhout is a great bet at these long odds.
Additional WM Phoenix Open long-shot picks via LJ Blut's sleepers article:
Min Woo Lee (+7000)
Min Woo Lee has played one tournament this season, finishing T-38 at The American Express. He also finished T-12 at last year’s WM Phoenix Open and has had success at TPC Scottsdale.
Distance is an advantage here, and Lee has plenty of it. He’s long off the tee without sacrificing accuracy, allowing him to attack drivable par 4s and create scoring chances on the par 5s. Lee performs well in events where scoring is required. The WM Phoenix Open often becomes a birdie-fest, and Lee’s aggressive style and ability to go low make him a strong fit for this setup.
Andrew Novak (+10000)
Andrew Novak enters the WM Phoenix Open coming off a fantastic performance last weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he finished T7. He will need to carry that form into the WM Phoenix Open.
Confidence and rhythm from a top finish can carry over, especially early in the season. TPC Scottsdale rewards accuracy off the tee and solid approach shots. Novak’s game is built on accuracy, giving him a solid chance to attack the drivable par 4s and score well on the par 5s. With the price of +10000, it is worth a play.
📊 WM Phoenix Open odds to win
Here are the live WM Phoenix Open odds via our best golf betting sites; odds will update in real time:
🏆 Who's favored to win the WM Phoenix Open?
Scottie Scheffler (+240)
It’s rarely a mistake to back Scheffler. He’s teeing it up for just the second time this season after rolling to a four-shot win in his 2026 debut two weeks ago. He was around +300 for that victory, and now his odds are even shorter at an event he’s already won on two occasions.
The two-time WM Phoenix Open champion, who won back-to-back three and four years ago, has won seven of 22 events dating back to last season. That's a 31.8% win rate, meaning his 29.41% implied win probability at the +240 odds represents the slightest value. We would need Scheffler's WM Phoenix Open odds to be at least +215 (31.75% win probability) to warrant an outright bet, and can bet him down to that number this week.
💰 WM Phoenix Open outright pick: Nick Taylor (+7500)
Here is my early pick to win the WM Phoenix Open, part of our best golf picks this week.
Nick Taylor struggles to get much respect from our best sports betting sites. The Canadian returns to the WM Phoenix Open, where he won two years ago, at No. 55 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). He finished T-13 in the season-opening Sony Open (where he shared the first-round lead) and tied for 27th in The Americana Express two weeks ago.
Like Scheffler, he returns to play after a week of rest, and he'll look to join Scheffler, Koepka, and Matsuyama as a two-time champion at TPC Scottsdale. The +7500 odds are far too high and represent an implied win probability of just 1.32%. Taylor's putting and short game (0.46 strokes gained: around-the-green per round) make him an excellent course fit.
🪢 Playoff success a point in Taylor's favor
Another strong point in Taylor's favor is the fact each of his past three PGA Tour wins came via a playoff, including the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. Six of the past 10 runnings of this event were decided via a playoff, with TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course lending itself to tight finishes as the raucous crowd makes an impact.
Pick made by Esten McLaren on Monday.
⚖️ WM Phoenix Open odds: Top 20 finish
The WM Phoenix Open has produced its share of surprise champions, including Detry and Taylor. That makes it sensible to take a few shots on longer-priced golfers this week, but it’s also worth keeping in mind that Scheffler is in the field and has captured close to one-third of his last 22 starts. To balance out those long-shot outrights, it’s smart to mix in placement bets like Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20. Below are the odds for the Top 20 market, where everyone except Scheffler is priced at plus money:
💡 How I'm betting the WM Phoenix Open
The WM Phoenix Open is one of my favorite tournaments to be each year. I find the tournament and course a little more predictable than most each year, as course history and past experience (and success) matter greatly in this event.
The last two winners (Nick Taylor and Thomas Detry) had pre-tournament odds of at least +10000, but five of the previous eight winners were priced between +2000 and +5000, offering a real profit opportunity despite the star-caliber of those typically in attendance.
Here's what you need to know about the course and key stats, and my WM Phoenix Open power rankings offer my best bets and top 10 golfers:
TPC Scottsdale course stats
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,261
- Greens: Bermuda
- Architect: Tom Weiskopf
- Comparable courses: Glen Oaks Club, TPC Craig Ranch, Pinehurst No. 2
Key stats
Here are the key stats I use to handicap the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, with a heavy weight toward course history and past success in this particular tournament, given the one-of-a-kind fan environment and its impact on golfers:
- Strokes gained: approach
- Proximity from 150-175 yards
- Strokes gained: around-the-green
- Driving distance
📺 How to watch the WM Phoenix Open
The 2026 WM Phoenix Open will be available on PGA Tour Live Betcast via ESPN+ from 9:15 am.m. through 7:30 p.m. ET each day from Thursday through Sunday.
Here's how to watch the tournament:
| Day | Time slot | Channel |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday-Friday | 3:30-7:30 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday | Noon-3 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Saturday | 3-6:30 p.m. ET | CBS |
| Sunday | Noon-3 p.m. ET | Golf Channel |
| Sunday | 3-6 p.m. ET | CBS |
PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ will carry WM Phoenix Open coverage from 9:15-7:30 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday, 11:30-6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, and 11-6 p.m. ET on Sunday.
👀 WM Phoenix Open betting report from BetMGM
Here is how the betting action is coming in on the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at BetMGM as of Wednesday:
Tournament winner
Line movement (opening to current)
- Brooks Koepka +5000 to +4500
- Xander Schauffele +2200 to +2000
Most tickets
- Scottie Scheffler 22.3%
- Brooks Koepka 8.7%
- Xander Schauffele 5.3%
Most handle
- Scottie Scheffler 56.8%
- Brooks Koepka 5.8%
- Hideki Matsuyama 5.5%
Biggest liabilities
- Scottie Scheffler
- Brooks Koepka
- Hideki Matsuyama
Most bet winner without Scottie Scheffler (tickets)
- Cameron Young +1600
- Si Woo Kim +1800
- Brooks Koepka +3300
- Hideki Matsuyama +2000
- Maverick McNealy +2500
Most bet first-round leader (tickets)
- Scottie Scheffler +900
- Keith Mitchell +5000
- Cameron Young +3300
- Maverick McNealy +4000
- Si Woo Kim +3300
Top finishes
| Player | Top 5 (tickets) | Top 10 (tickets) | Top 20 (tickets) | Top 40 (tickets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -210 | |||
| Brooks Koepka | +800 | +400 | +200 | -160 |
| Si Woo Kim | +400 | +200 | -110 | |
| Cameron Young | +400 | +200 | ||
| Maverick McNealy | +500 | +250 | +120 | |
| Sahith Theegala | +333 | |||
| Chris Gotterup | +150 | |||
| Pierceson Coody | +200 | |||
| Tony Finau | -105 | |||
| Adam Schenk | +210 | |||
| Daniel Berger | -130 |
Will there be a Hole-In-One?
- Yes (-125): 59% tickets, 38% handle
- No (+100): 41% tickets, 62% handle
⭐ WM Phoenix Open featured groups
Here are the featured groups for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open television coverage; full Round 1 and 2 tee times can be seen here (all times ET).
Thursday featured groups (Round 1)
| Tee time | Golfer 1 | Golfer 2 | Golfer 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:15 a.m. | Scottie Scheffler | Jordan Spieth | Chris Gotterup |
| 2:44 p.m. | Brooks Koepka | Xander Schauffele | Cameron Young |
| 9:53 a.m. | J.J. Spaun | Sahith Theegala | Sam Burns |
| 2:22 p.m. | Max Homa | Joel Dahmen | Keith Mitchell |
| 10:04 a.m. | Ben Griffin | Wyndham Clark | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| 2:33 p.m. | Viktor Hovland | Hideki Matsuyama | Collin Morikawa |
Friday featured groups (Round 2)
| Tee time | Golfer 1 | Golfer 2 | Golfer 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10:04 a.m. | Brooks Koepka | Xander Schauffele | Cameron Young |
| 2:55 p.m. | Scottie Scheffler | Jordan Spieth | Chris Gotterup |
| 9:42 a.m. | Max Homa | Joel Dahmen | Keith Mitchell |
| 2:33 p.m. | J.J. Spaun | Sahith Theegala | Sam Burns |
| 9:53 a.m. | Viktor Hovland | Hideki Matsuyama | Collin Morikawa |
| 2:44 p.m. | Ben Griffin | Wyndham Clark | Matt Fitzpatrick |
There will also be featured holes coverage of Nos. 16, 17, 4, and 12.
⛳ WM Phoenix Open tournament info
- Where: TPC Scottsdale (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
- When: Thursday, Feb. 5 - Sunday, Feb. 8
- Field: 121
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+240 via BetMGM)
- Defending champion: Thomas Detry
- Purse: $9.6 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
📜 WM Phoenix Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com:
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Thomas Detry | -24 | +10000 |
| 2024 | Nick Taylor | -21 (playoff) | +12500 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -19 | +1200 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -18 (playoff) | +2500 |
| 2021 | Brooks Koepka | -19 | +4000 |
| 2020 | Webb Simpson | -17 (playoff) | +1400 |
| 2019 | Rickie Fowler | -17 | +2000 |
| 2018 | Gary Woodland | -18 (playoff) | +5000 |
| 2017 | Hideki Matsuyama | -17 (playoff) | +1000 |
| 2016 | Hideki Matsuyama | -14 (playoff) | +2500 |
❓ WM Phoenix Open FAQs
Who is favored to win the WM Phoenix Open?
Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite to win this week's WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, with his +240 outright odds representing an implied win probability of 29.41%.
Who won the WM Phoenix Open last year?
Thomas Detry won last year's WM Phoenix Open by seven strokes at 24 under par.
Where is the WM Phoenix Open?
The WM Phoenix Open is played annually at TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course in Scottsdale, Ariz.
When is the WM Phoenix Open?
The 2026 WM Phoenix Open will be played from Thursday, Feb. 5 through Sunday, Feb. 8. The tournament finishes on Super Bowl Sunday each year, typically a couple hours before the Big Game.
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