Saints vs. Rams Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Thursday Night Football

Check out our top predictions for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams based on the best NFL odds.

C Jackson Cowart

Last updated: December 21, 2023 7:58 PM EST • 5 min read

Week 16 of the NFL season kicks off with the Los Angeles Rams traveling to face the New Orleans Saints in a key contest for each team's playoff hopes, and we have you covered with our Saints vs. Rams prediction for Thursday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.

Entering the final three weeks of the 2023 NFL regular season, the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and the Los Angeles Rams (7-7) cannot afford to slip up on Thursday if they aim to reach the postseason and maintain their chances for a Super Bowl run.

One of these teams will suffer a setback as they face off on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 16.

Since their Week 10 break, the Rams have surged, claiming four wins in five games to remain in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card berth. Meanwhile, the Saints ride a two-game winning streak into Thursday and are tied for the NFC South lead alongside the Buccaneers.

To accompany our Saints vs. Rams NFL player props and as part of our Week 16 NFL predictions, here is our best Saints vs. Rams prediction for Thursday Night Football (TNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saints vs. Rams prediction: Thursday Night Football

Rams -4 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For the first time in three weeks, we won't be subjected to backup QBs dueling under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football. That said, not every starter is built the same.

Rams starter Matthew Stafford has been on a heater over the last four weeks, leading the league in touchdown passes (12) while ranking in the top five in passing yards (265 YPG) and big-time throws (nine). Our Shane Jackson discusses what he expects from the Rams signal-caller in his Matthew Stafford player props.

He's also tossed just one interception during that stretch - the fewest of any full-time starter - and his 112.6 passer rating ranks behind only NFL MVP odds favorite Brock Purdy among qualified starters.

Saints QB Derek Carr looked sharp last week (218 yards, 3 TDs) against the lowly New York Giants, which marked his first game without an INT in over a month. Still, he's struggled to elevate this offense against competent defenses, especially as he plays through various injuries.

New Orleans' run game has been a mess, too, and faces a Rams front allowing the NFL's fifth-fewest rushing yards (89.2 YPG) since a Week 10 bye.

The biggest mismatch comes on the other side. The Saints' run defense has been a strength for years but has been gashed at times in 2023, especially over the back half of the season. They'll have hands full against emerging star Kyren Williams, who leads the league in rushing yards per game (95.3) and success rate (59.7%) and is averaging 131 yards over his last five games.

Fittingly, the Rams are 4-0 ATS since Williams returned from a midseason injury, and they're 2-0 ATS this season when laying at least four points. Expect both streaks to continue on Thursday.

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Saints vs. Rams best odds

DraftKings (-108)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
Rams -4	Rams -4.5	Rams -4	Rams -4	Rams -4
-108	-105	-110	-110	-110

As you can see above, the market is in near consensus on this game with the Rams dealing as 4-point favorites with -110 odds across most of our best sports betting apps.

One clear outlier is FanDuel, which is dealing L.A. as a 4.5-point favorite, while you can buy the Rams -4 at -108 odds via DraftKings. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to make sure you're getting the most out of whichever book you choose.

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Saints vs. Rams odds for Thursday Night Football

Saints vs. Rams odds analysis

The Rams opened anywhere from -3 to -3.5 across our best sports betting sites. We've already seen a strong move toward the home favorites, who are trading at -4 at all of our best sportsbooks except for FanDuel, where the Rams are 4.5-point chalk. Roughly 96% of the early money is backing L.A., though we'll obviously see a more logical split as kickoff nears.

We haven't seen any movement on the betting total, which opened at 44.5 and remains there early in the week. If you're eyeing the Under, FanDuel has the best price at -105.

Thursday Night Football game info

When: Thursday, Dec. 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewoood, CA
How to watch: Amazon Prime Video
Weather: Indoors

Saints-Rams prediction made Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.