Rams vs. Colts Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 4: Is Indianapolis Overvalued Off Upset?
Carrying a two-game losing streak, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and we're offering our top Rams vs. Colts predictions based on NFL odds from our best sports betting apps to prepare you for the Week 4 matchup.
The Los Angeles Rams have experienced a two-week slide since their impressive season opener against the Seattle Seahawks. Now, they are heading to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the 2-1 Indianapolis Colts, who are coming off their own statement victory – a 22-19 overtime win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.
This win has elevated Indy's head coach Shane Steichen in the Coach of the Year odds, and the Colts will have their No. 1 quarterback, Anthony Richardson, back after the rookie missed Week 3 due to a concussion.
Here is our best Rams vs. Colts prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Rams vs. Colts prediction
Rams ML (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL bettors tend to overreact to one week’s worth of results, much more so than other sports bettors, and it would be very easy to let what happened last week with these two teams cloud our judgment. Indianapolis’ odds decreased rapidly from +700 to +280 to win the AFC South at DraftKings after last week’s upset of Baltimore.
Meanwhile, the Rams were in the spotlight on national television on Monday Night Football last week and mustered their only offensive touchdown in garbage time with one minute left in the fourth quarter. However, we will not overreact to one week and are backing Los Angeles to win outright.
While Indianapolis’ upset of Baltimore was impressive, one must consider that the Ravens were without seven injured starters, including two key offensive linemen (tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum) and two of their best players in the secondary (cornerback Marlon Humphrey and safety Marcus Williams). During the game, running back Gus Edwards and wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace all got injured as well.
In the win, Indianapolis allowed Lamar Jackson to complete his first 10 passes of the game, the most consecutive completions to start a game in Ravens history. And while Matthew Stafford is 4-8 as a starter with a 12-12 TD-INT ratio since winning Super Bowl LVI, his connection with wide receivers Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell is significant enough to pose problems for the Colts secondary.
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Los Angeles was on track to have a preparation issue as it was unclear whether Anthony Richardson would recover from a concussion that kept him out of last week’s game in time. However, while he and center Ryan Kelly remain in the concussion protocol, both returned to practice on Wednesday, increasing the chances they play Sunday and allowing the Rams to devise a game plan for the quarterback’s unique skill set.
In addition, an injury to an interior lineman does not bode well when going against the best defensive linemen in the sport. Aaron Donald will be motivated to get to the quarterback, as the Colts are one of three NFL teams he has not recorded a sack against.
This is a three-star play, as Richardson dazzled by becoming the first Colts player with a passing touchdown and rushing touchdown in his NFL debut. However, he is still raw, and his 13 college starts were tied for the fewest by a first-round quarterback over the last 20 years.
Richardson’s -14.2% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) was the second-worst of any quarterback in the preseason (min. 20 pass attempts), so we will give the nod to the team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback in this game.
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Rams vs. Colts best odds
Caesars (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
| Rams ML | Rams ML | Rams ML | Rams ML | Rams ML |
| -115 | -110 | -110 | +100 | -110 |
Rams moneyline backers have an easy choice for their go-to shop, as Caesars is the only one offering plus-money odds.
It will be interesting to see if the line moves if there is surprising news that Gardner Minshew will be under center for the Colts for the second straight week, but for now, we are happy to get a plus-money return on this moneyline. Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last five games against NFC opponents.
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Rams vs. Colts odds
Rams vs. Colts odds analysis
As you would expect from a game with moneyline odds being so close to a virtual pick ’em (-110 odds on each side), the point spread is similarly split, with Indianapolis as low as +1 (-110) at DraftKings and as high as -1.5 (-102) at FanDuel.
The line has jumped the fence multiple times at FanDuel, opening at Colts -1.5, then briefly going to +1.5 before returning to -1.5. DraftKings was the only shop to get to -2 on either side (the Colts were 2-point favorites on Tuesday morning), but that number did not last long. Indianapolis is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
There is a similar gap among the totals across all sportsbooks. Caesars is the only shop as low as 45.5, at least one point lower than all its competitors, while DraftKings and BetRivers are on the high end at 47. At this time, 70% of early O/U wagers have backed the Under, and the Under is 5-1 in Los Angeles’ last six road games.
Rams vs. Colts game info
- When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Rams-Colts prediction made 9/28/2023 at 4:14 p.m. ET
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