NFL Odds, Lines Wild Card Weekend: Thompson Starting for Dolphins Moves Number
The Buffalo Bills received a huge influx of betting action following the announcement that the Miami Dolphins are preparing as if rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson will start Sunday’s matchup. Here’s our analysis of the NFL odds and lines for Wild Card Weekend.
Bettors aren’t buying the Thompson-led Dolphins, and Buffalo is closing in on becoming a two-touchdown home favorite for Sunday’s wild-card clash.
It’ll be just the third career start for the rookie out of Kansas State, and he’ll have the formidable Buffalo defense staring him down for four quarters. The Bills capped off the 2022 season ranked fourth in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders while allowing the seventh-lowest EPA per play.
They're good, and the Dolphins' flight back to sunny Miami might not leave quick enough Sunday afternoon.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Wild Card Weekend, and how we think they'll move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
Check out our Wild Card Weekend Teaser Picks, Wild Card Weekend ATS Power Rankings, and all of our top NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds and Lines: Sunday
Dolphins vs. Bills Pick
Spread: Bills -13
Following Wednesday’s announcement that QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is ruled out for the weekend and the Dolphins are preparing as if Thompson will start against the Bills, there’s been an influx of money on Buffalo. The Bills have climbed as high as -13.5 home favorites through FanDuel and PointsBet, and our other top-rated sportsbooks have the spread at -13. It’s entirely possible that there will be buyback on the Dolphins, but I’m expecting this line to trade closer to the key number of 14 than 10 on Sunday.
Total: 43.5
There was just a slight, half-point dip to this total in response to the Thompson news, but the number is still trading in the key range of 43-44 as of Thursday afternoon. The Over received the majority of early betting action, and considering Buffalo’s offensive upside, I think there could be a second wave of recreational money coming in on the Over. With that being said, we’re probably not going to see this total stray too far from the noted key range.
Giants vs. Vikings Pick
Spread: Vikings -3
The betting action on this game has balanced out following an early surge of money coming in on the New York Giants. It makes sense, too. The G-Men went 13-4 against the spread during the regular season, and they covered the number during their Week 16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. I could be proven wrong, but I’m not expecting this spread to move too far off the key number of 3. I’m also expecting recreational money to come in on the 13-4 Vikings later this week.
Total: 48
This is another total that is trading between the key range of 43-44 and key number of 51. As a result, there’s some wiggle room to move it without being overly vulnerable to an influx of money on the opposite side. There’s been back-and-forth betting action as of Thursday afternoon, and this total is trading as high as 48.5 through FanDuel. I’m not surprised to see the number creeping up, but I’d expect buyback on the Under before it reaches 51.
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Ravens vs. Bengals Pick
Spread: Bengals -10
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (knee) missed practice again Thursday, so I’m not expecting him to play Sunday. Neither are bettors, as the Cincinnati Bengals have climbed to a double-digit favorite as of Thursday afternoon. With 10 a key number, there’s potential for buyback on the Ravens, but I’m anticipating the public steam inflating this spread even further and it could close closer to the key number of 13 than 10 on Sunday.
Total: 40.5
This total was trading at 43.5 on Monday, with the big drop coming Wednesday when Jackson didn’t practice. There hasn’t been any additional movement as of Thursday afternoon, though. With the line now settled in the key range of 40-41, if you see any additional movement, I expect it to be a small adjustment.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds and Lines: Monday
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Cowboys -2.5
After a tidal wave of money flowed in on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers early this week, this spread has hit a dam at Dallas Cowboys -2.5. It’s proven to be an accurate number as of Thursday afternoon. A number of sportsbooks are charging a higher vig for the Dallas side, too. Additionally, while I’m expecting a second wave of money from public bettors backing Big D leading into kickoff, I’m not sure this line returns to the key number of 3.
Check out our NFL Wild Card Weekend upset picks!
Total: 45.5
There’s been little movement to this total. PointsBet had the lowest number (44.5) available Monday, but 45.5 is the consensus number across our top-rated shops as of Thursday afternoon. I think the number should be trading closer to the key range of 43-44, but I’m not expecting significant movement from 45.5 in either direction.
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