NFL Award Predictions: Who Are the Favorites & Finalists for NFL Honors?
I'm offering my NFL award predictions by exploring the betting markets for every major award ahead of NFL Honors tonight. That includes MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, the top rookies, and more. The show begins at 9 p.m. ET (NBC, NFL Network) from the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
🏆 NFL MVP favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL MVP are Matthew Stafford (Rams), Drake Maye (Patriots), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Josh Allen (Bills), and Christian McCaffrey (49ers). Stafford is the massive NFL MVP odds favorite at -450 odds at FanDuel Canada, which translates to an implied probability of more than 80%. Most major sportsbooks closed the market at the end of the regular season.
Trailing Stafford is second-team All-Pro Maye (+350), who will start for the Patriots in the Super Bowl this Sunday. Lawrence, Allen, and McCaffrey round out the list of finalists, but are being given less than a 1% chance of taking home Most Valuable Player tonight.
NFL MVP odds
Closing NFL MVP odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford (Rams) | -450 | 81.81% | $2.22 |
| Drake Maye (Patriots) | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | +30000 | 0.33% | $3000 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Christian McCaffrey (49ers) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL MVP prediction
Stafford has this award in the bag, as the closing betting odds show. The Rams passer had his best season as a pro at age 37, throwing for a career-best 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns. His touchdowns total, in particular, far outpaces fellow MVP finalist Drake Maye.
Though Stafford fell just short of a Super Bowl appearance, he'll take home his first NFL MVP award as a solid consolation prize for the 2025 season.
Prediction: Matthew Stafford (-450 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Offensive Player of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Offensive Player of the Year are Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks), Puka Nacua (Rams), Christian McCaffrey (49ers), Bijan Robinson (Falcons), and Drake Maye (Patriots).
Smith-Njigba has a 92.59% implied probability to win the award at -1250 odds, per the closing NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds. The closest finalist to the Seahawks star receiver is Nacua at +700, then McCaffrey (+12500) and Robinson (+12500).
NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds
Closing NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) | -1250 | 92.59% | $0.80 |
| Puka Nacua (Rams) | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Christian McCaffrey (49ers) | +12500 | 0.79% | $1250 |
| Bijan Robinson (Falcons) | +12500 | 0.79% | $1250 |
| Drake Maye (Patriots) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL Offensive Player of the Year prediction
I'm admittedly a little surprised that Nacua isn't being given a greater chance to win OPOY, but I think the narrative advantage is what gives Smith-Njigba the edge.
While Nacua's quarterback (Stafford) will likely take home MVP tonight, Smith-Njigba's signal-caller (Darnold) is nowhere to be found on any award finalist list or oddsboard. JSN is seen as the primary reason for Seattle's success this season, which will earn him the hardware over Nacua.
Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1250 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Defensive Player of the Year are Myles Garrett (Browns), Will Anderson Jr. (Texans), Nik Bonitto (Broncos), Aidan Hutchinson (Lions), and Micah Parsons (Packers).
Garrett is the favorite to win the award at -20000 odds, per the closing NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. That translates to a 99.5% implied probability. The other finalists don't have much of a shot to take home DPOY at +20000 odds each (0.5% probability).
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
Closing NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Garrett (Browns) | -20000 | 99.50% | $0.05 |
| Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) | +20000 | 0.50% | $2000 |
| Nik Bonitto (Broncos) | +20000 | 0.50% | $2000 |
| Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) | +20000 | 0.50% | $2000 |
| Micah Parsons (Packers) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL Defensive Player of the Year prediction
Voters probably could have just given this award to Garrett sometime in November.
The Browns pass-rusher set the all-time single-season sacks record with 23 and will be rewarded with his second career DPOY honor as a result.
Prediction: Myles Garrett (-20000 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year are Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers), Jaxson Dart (Giants), Tyler Shough (Saints), TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots), and Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers).
The closing NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds had McMillan as the favorite at -20000 betting odds (99.5% implied probability). Rookie quarterbacks Dart and Shough are the closest to McMillan on the oddsboard at +1600 and +4500, respectively.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Closing NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) | -20000 | 99.50% | $0.05 |
| Jaxson Dart (Giants) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Tyler Shough (Saints) | +4500 | 2.17% | $450 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) | +12500 | 0.79% | $1,250 |
| R.J. Harvey (Broncos) | +40000 | 0.25% | $4000.00 |
| Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year prediction
McMillan was everything the Panthers needed him to be this season as a star rookie receiver.
He led Carolina in all major receiving categories and helped the team make the postseason for the first time since the 2017 season. While other rookies had higher highs, no freshman was more consistent than McMillan.
Prediction: Tetairoa McMillan (-20000 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year are Carson Schwesinger (Browns), James Pearce Jr. (Falcons), Nick Emmanwori (Seahawks), Xavier Watts (Falcons), and Abdul Carter (Giants).
The closing NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds had Schwesinger as the overwhelming -20000 favorite (99.5% implied probability).
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
Closing NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger (Browns) | -20000 | 99.50% | $0.05 |
| James Pearce Jr. (Falcons) | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Nick Emmanwori (Seahawks) | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Xavier Watts (Falcons) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Abdul Carter (Giants) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year prediction
This has been the year's quietest award race, though Schwesinger played a major role in the Browns fielding one of the NFL's top defenses.
The Cleveland linebacker led the team in total tackles and tallied two interceptions and 2.5 sacks.
Prediction: Carson Schwesinger (-20000 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Coach of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Coach of the Year are Mike Vrabel (Patriots), Mike Macdonald (Seahawks), Liam Coen (Jaguars), Ben Johnson (Bears), and Kyle Shanahan (49ers).
Vrabel closed as the NFL Coach of the Year odds favorite at the end of the regular season at -270, giving him an implied probability of 72.97% to win the award. This is the closest race, according to the betting markets, with Macdonald priced at +250 odds.
NFL Coach of the Year odds
Closing NFL Coach of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Coach | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel (Patriots) | -270 | 72.97% | $3.70 |
| Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Liam Coen (Jaguars) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Ben Johnson (Bears) | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| Kyle Shanahan (49ers) | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
NFL Coach of the Year prediction
There's nothing NFL Coach of the Year voters love more than a first-year coach who turns around his team.
While Coen and Johnson both accomplished that feat as well, no one did it better than Vrabel. The Patriots tied for the best record in the league at 14-3 after back-to-back four-win seasons before Vrabel was hired.
In one of the strongest Coach of the Year races in recent memory, Vrabel's star power elevates him above the pack for his second career Coach of the Year award.
Prediction: Mike Vrabel (-270 via FanDuel Canada)
🏆 NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorites and finalists
The five finalists for NFL Comeback Player of the Year are Christian McCaffrey (49ers), Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars), Aidan Hutchinson (Lions), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), and Stefon Diggs (Patriots).
McCaffrey closed as the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds favorite at -4000 odds, implying a 97.56% chance he wins the award. No other player is remotely close.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds
Closing NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds via FanDuel Canada
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (49ers) | -4000 | 97.56% | $0.25 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) | +17500 | 0.57% | $1,750 |
| Dak Prescott (Cowboys) | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Stefon Diggs (Patriots) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction
It appeared as if McCaffrey's career could be winding down after an injury-riddled 2024 season in which he appeared in just four games.
But the 49ers superstar was back to his usual dominant self this year. He was selected first-team All-Pro after topping 2,000 scrimmage yards for the third time in his career. CMC is a shoo-in to go home with this award tonight.
Prediction: Christian McCaffrey (-4000 via FanDuel Canada)
🔥 NFL award predictions
| Award | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Most Valuable Player | Matthew Stafford (Rams) |
| Offensive Player of the Year | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Myles Garrett (Browns) |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year | Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) |
| Defensive Rookie of the Year | Carson Schwesinger (Browns) |
| Coach of the Year | Mike Vrabel (Patriots) |
| Comeback Player of the Year | Christian McCaffrey (49ers) |
| Protector of the Year | Joe Thuney (Bears) |
| Assistant Coach of the Year | Klint Kubiak (Seahawks) |
❓ NFL Honors FAQs
When is NFL Honors 2026?
NFL Honors is on Thursday, Feb. 5, beginning at 9 p.m. ET.
Where is NFL Honors 2026?
The 2026 NFL Honors will take place at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
How to watch NFL Honors 2026
NBC and NFL Network will broadcast NFL Honors nationally.
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