How to Bet $20 on the NFL This Week: Week 5 NFL Betting Guide

After hitting on two of my top four plays last week, I am back with this week’s NFL betting guide for Week 5, which should be used as a means to get creative with various NFL picks while adhering to a responsible budget.

My NFL predictions for Week 5 fade the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and the injury-ravaged Baltimore Ravens while expecting another big win at a +210 payout for one of the AFC’s most surprising teams.

Here is how I would split up a $20 bankroll for Week 5. You can scale these picks to whatever your budget is for all your NFL picks throughout the weekend.

💵 NFL betting guide: Week 5

NFL expert picks for Week 5; check the latest NFL odds for the best odds.

Want to calculate these bets for your own budget? Check out our odds converter to determine the profit for any wager amount.

⚜️ Saints moneyline ($5)

Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart became the sixth quarterback since the 1970 merger to win his first start against a team that was 3-0 or better. But the celebration was muted after the Giants lost star wide receiver Malik Nabers to a torn ACL.

The Saints are off to their first 0-4 start since 2012, and their eight consecutive losses mark the team’s longest losing streak since 1980. But I am banking on quarterback Spencer Rattler to get his first win after starting his career 0-10, especially after the team had chances to take the lead late in the fourth quarter at Buffalo last week.

This line jumped the fence early in the week from New Orleans being a 1.5-point home underdog. But I am following the line movement and making this my most confident NFL pick of the week, as rookie quarterbacks are just 13-34 SU on the road within their first two starts.

New Orleans has as high as a 57.45% implied probability through BetMGM’s -135 odds to earn the win. But I am headed to FanDuel for a better payout, as its -124 odds would net $4.03 in profits on a $5 wager. 

⬇️ Eagles team total Under 24.5 ($4)

The Eagles have won 20 of their last 21 games (including playoffs) but are playing with fire, having been outgained in all four of their one-score victories this season.

I expect the Denver Broncos to employ a similar defensive game plan that Tampa Bay used last week, which completely stifled Philadelphia’s passing attack in the second half. 

In the first half last week, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts went 15-of-16 while not taking a sack and totaling a 98.3 QBR against a 50% blitz percentage. When Tampa Bay dropped back more and only blitzed 9% of the time in the second half, Hurts was 0-for-8 (and was off-target on five passes) while taking two sacks and totaling a 0.6 QBR.

DraftKings offers an appealing -105 price (carrying a 51.22% implied probability) to back Philadelphia’s team total Under of 23.5. But I am paying up slightly and moving this line through a key number while still being able to return $3.08 in profits on a winning $4 wager.

🟢 Seahawks -1.5 first-half spread ($4)

The Buccaneers have won the first half in each of their last five games against the Seahawks and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. However, I am betting against those trends, as the Bucs have been slow starters this season, and that could put them at a disadvantage in a raucous environment like Lumen Field.

Tampa Bay has averaged 130.8 yards per game in the first half (ranks 28th) while allowing 154.3 yards to its opponents (15th). But in the second half, Tampa Bay’s 205 yards-per-game average ranks second, while its defense ranks third by allowing 118.5 yards per game.

Because of these trends, I am foregoing the full-game 3.5-point spread and cutting it in more than half with bet365’s 1.5-point spread at 53.49% implied odds. If Seattle wins the first half by at least two points, my $4 wager would net $3.48 in profits.

🐂 Texans -1.5 ($3)

This is the first time Baltimore has had a losing record through four games of a season, and its 133 points allowed in that span are its most in franchise history. The Ravens have allowed at least 37 points and 380 total yards in three of four games, and things may only get worse with their slew of defensive injuries.

The Ravens have already ruled out Pro Bowl defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike for the rest of the season with a neck injury. In addition, linebacker Roquan Smith is expected to miss a couple of weeks, and the team will likely be without each of its starting cornerbacks for this game.

With Lamar Jackson ruled out, it will be even tougher sledding for running back Derrick Henry, who has rushed for 50 or fewer yards in three straight games, his longest streak since 2018.

DraftKings is the only one among the best sports betting sites charging less than the standard -110 juice to lay the points with the Texans. That is where I am headed for the best payout, hoping to return $2.78 in profits off my $3 wager.

🧨 David Montgomery to score 2+ touchdowns ($2)

Lions running back David Montgomery is coming off his third game without at least 10 touches since 2023. However, the game plan necessitated heavy passing volume when facing a Browns defense that had allowed 57 rushing yards per game, no rushes of 12 or more yards, and 9 rushing first downs through the first three games entering Week 4.

I expect head coach Dan Campbell will feed Montgomery more in the red zone this week, even though fellow running back Jahmyr Gibbs has scored a touchdown in eight straight games that the Lions have been favored. 

Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 76 points over the last two weeks and just saw J.K. Dobbins run for a season-high 101 yards while the Bengals had season highs in rushing yards (186) and rushing first downs (11) against them.

DraftKings’ +310 odds for Montgomery to score at least twice carry a 24.39% implied probability, but bet365’s +400 odds would net the biggest profit ($8) on a winning $2 wager. 

🐴 Colts -13.5 alternate spread ($2)

The Colts dropped to 4-9 against teams with winning records under head coach Shane Steichen in last week’s road loss to the Rams, a game in which they led with under four minutes to go in the fourth quarter. But that poor 4-9 record is not relevant when facing the 1-3 Raiders, and I do not expect Indianapolis to commit another three turnovers this week after playing turnover-free football for the first three games.

Under Steichen, Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS after a three-turnover game and has covered six of the 10 games following a game where they committed at least eight penalties the following week.

With this spread being -6.5, I am only driving the alternate line up by a touchdown while remaining under the key number of 14. That makes FanDuel’s +210 price at 32.26% implied odds enticing, especially compared to DraftKings’ +181 odds on the low end of the market. 

A $2 wager at FanDuel would return $4.20 in profits if Indianapolis wins by 14-plus points.

​​🧠 NFL betting strategy for Week 5

My overall betting strategy with a $20 budget plays things more conservatively with my biggest wagers. Thus, any wagers of $3 or more are usually placed on standard odds (moneylines, totals, against the spread), though I will mix in teasers when appropriate.

The final two $2 wagers are considered the “fliers” for the week, backing David Montgomery to score two touchdowns and driving the Colts’ point spread up a touchdown. Montgomery has three multiple-score games over the last two seasons, while two of the Colts’ three wins have been by at least 21 points, so neither is far-fetched.

It is important to me to return more in potential profits than my original stake amount, which we have done this week with $25.57 in potential returns off of our original $20 investment.