NFL First Coach Fired Odds: Ranking the Top Hot Seat Candidates After Schedule Release

With the NFL schedule now set, we can start speculating on which head coaches may be in danger of losing their jobs early, even though the NFL first coach fired odds haven’t been released yet by our best sports betting sites.

While most early firing candidates typically come from teams expected to struggle, our top pick is a surprising name: a coach leading one of the top 10 contenders in the Super Bowl odds.

👉 As part of our NFL season predictions, we used ChatGPT to project all 272 games

🔥 Top hot seat candidates to lead the NFL first coach fired odds

🐅 Zac Taylor, Bengals

🏈 Bengals' 2025 strength of schedule: .509 (No. 14 toughest)
🏈 Taylor's career record: 46-52-1 (six seasons)
🏈 Taylor's playoff appearances: Two (5-2 record)

All is not right with the Cincinnati Bengals, and it may never be as long as Mike Brown owns the team. While the Bengals paid NFL MVP odds contender Joe Burrow two years ago, and both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins since then, they're neglecting their best defensive player, Trey Hendrickson.

Even with an offense that ranked No. 7 in EPA per play last season, Taylor wasn't able to lead the Bengals to the playoffs, and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo was scapegoated. Now with Anarumo out, and Hendrickson unhappy, the Bengals are supposed to be better than No. 27 in EPA per play on defense?

Taylor has a top-five QB and arguably the best one-two punch at receiver in the NFL. Anything short of a playoff berth should mean Cincinnati moving on, but the AFC North is a gauntlet, and the Bengals have to play the NFC North this year, too.

Brown is the problem. However, you can't fire an owner, and Taylor has been uninspiring as the Bengals' head coach.

🐶 Kevin Stefanski, Browns

🏈 Browns' 2025 strength of schedule: .519 (No. 13 toughest)
🏈 Stefanski's career record: 40-44 (five seasons)
🏈 Stefanski's playoff appearances: Two (1-2 record)

It's fair to say Stefanski is among the top 20 head coaches in the NFL - he's won the NFL Coach of the Year odds race twice after all. Still, the Cleveland Browns seem doomed to an eternity of disappointment, and rightfully so after the Deshaun Watson debacle.

Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry enter the season with questions about how much longer they'll be in Cleveland, with Jimmy Haslam's trigger finger likely getting itchy.

The team is set to start some combo of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, third-round pick Dillon Gabriel, and fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders at QB. That's probably the second-worst QB situation in the NFL after the New Orleans Saints, unless Sanders improbably lives up to his NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds buzz.

It's unlikely the Browns make much noise this season, and the team starts the season by playing all three of its division opponents and all three NFC North playoff teams over the first six weeks of the season. Cleveland may end up going into its bye week 0-8 if one of these QBs isn't at least serviceable.

Stefanski needs a fresh start and to get the Watson stench off him, and Cleveland looks like it would rather have its pick of the QBs atop the NFL draft odds than win games.

🐴 Shane Steichen, Colts

🏈 Colts' 2025 strength of schedule: .464 (No. 25 toughest)
🏈 Steichen's career record: 17-17 (two seasons)
🏈 Steichen's playoff appearances: Zero

The Indianapolis Colts seemingly have an unkillable general manager in Chris Ballard, who has been in charge of the team's front office since 2017, but has only seen the team reach the playoffs twice in that time. Since then, Chuck Pagano, Frank Reich, Jeff Saturday, and Steichen have coached this team.

While Steichen has shown promise, he's failed to make the playoffs and fallen short on the challenge of developing former No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson at QB. Now his job is likely on the line, and his backup plan if Richardson continues to falter is Daniel Jones ... yikes.

While the Colts don't have the toughest schedule in the world, their division rivals just added the No. 1 pick (Cam Ward) and the Heisman winner (Travis Hunter), on top of the Houston Texans having far and away the best roster. Does limping to a 7-10 record, at best, with Jones really earn Ballard and Steichen another year?

🗽 Brian Daboll, Giants

🏈 Giants' 2025 strength of schedule: .574 (No. 1 toughest)
🏈 Daboll's career record: 18-32 (three seasons)
🏈 Daboll's playoff appearances: One (1-1 record)

The only reason Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen aren't at the top of every hot seat list heading into the season with the league's hardest schedule is because of Jaxson Dart. No, not because he's some can't-miss QB savior, but because spending a first-round pick on a passer often extends the life of a coaching staff and front office.

The New York Giants didn't move on from Daboll and Schoen following this past season, even after Saquon Barkley made them look silly, so it's safe to assume John Mara and Steve Tisch aren't fully sold on moving on. Now, if Dart shows some promise, he could guarantee the pair another year in the Big Apple.

With that said, Dart was way overdrafted and likely won't be ready to start Week 1, plus the Giants open the season by playing six playoff teams in the first eight weeks.

Unless NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds favorite Abdul Carter does his best Lawrence Taylor impression, Daboll is going to need to pray Dart is ready to roll by midseason to ensure he gets another year.

⭐ Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys

🏈 Cowboys' 2025 strength of schedule: .557 (No. 5 toughest)
🏈 Schottenheimer's career record: 0-0 
🏈 Schottenheimer's playoff appearances: Zero

Rumors swirled that Jerry Jones would make a splashy hire and bring Colorado head coach Deion Sanders in to replace Mike McCarthy, and instead, he made the most boring and least unhinged move by promoting Brian Schottenheimer to bench boss.

Firing your head coach and hiring his offensive coordinator doesn't seem like a recipe for improvement, which is why I'm not sure we should assume Schotty is more than a placeholder.

The Cowboys are stuck in purgatory, and trading for George Pickens and drafting Tyler Booker in the first round probably won't change that, especially with the schedule the team is walking into this season. Even with a healthy Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys could start the Schotty era by going into their bye week with a 4-5 record, and then they play six playoff teams over their final seven games.

If Dallas can get to 9-8 this year, that would be a supernatural phenomenon, and I don't think any greater power is looking to hand Jones a miracle at this point. If the Cowboys go an uninspiring 7-10, would the team be willing to move on from Schotty and take a swing on a higher-profile coach?

⚠️ Honorable mentions:

🔮 2025 NFL season previews & predictions

Following the NFL schedule release, we broke down the odds for every game and asked AI to predict every game (and more). Below are our team-by-team schedules, odds, and predictions for Week 1 through Week 18.

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