The most important game of the NFL's Week 14 slate is an NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, and we offer our best Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction based on the best NFL odds.
In a pivotal matchup, the San Francisco 49ers dominated the Philadelphia Eagles for a convincing 42-19 victory last week. Philadelphia's defeat marked the end of its five-game winning streak and halted a six-game run of home victories that extended back to last postseason.
Approaching their Week 14 showdown, the Eagles maintain a one-game lead over the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) in the NFC East. This sets the stage for a crucial battle as they aim to preserve their divisional lead against a formidable opponent and maintain their advantage in the Super Bowl odds.
The Cowboys, with a 6-0 home record, are seeking redemption after their previous 28-23 road loss to the Eagles in Week 9. A win in this upcoming clash would propel Dallas to first place in the division, leveraging a stronger divisional record (4-1) compared to the Eagles (who would fall to 3-1 with a loss).
In conjunction with our Eagles vs. Cowboys NFL player props and our Eagles-Cowboys parlay, here is our best Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction for Sunday Night Football (SNF odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Eagles vs. Cowboys prediction: Sunday Night Football
Over 52 (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cowboys have won 14 consecutive home games, and last week’s 41-35 victory over the Seattle Seahawks was their only one of six home victories this season that was by fewer than 20 points.
While the home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head matchups between Philadelphia and Dallas, we are avoiding backing the Cowboys on the point spread, considering that none of their nine wins this season have come against teams that currently have a winning record.
Scheduling had a lot to do with why the 49ers were three-point road favorites against the Eagles last week, as they had 10 days to prepare after playing on Thursday of the previous week, while the Eagles played their third game in 13 days. The second of those three games was particularly draining for Philadelphia, as its defense was on the field for 97 snaps in an overtime win against Buffalo.
Now the Eagles have the same scenario facing a Cowboys team that is on 10 days of rest. That means their defense should once again be in trouble against Dak Prescott, who ranks in the top two among all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns, TD-INT ratio, passer rating, wins, and completion percentage.
Per PFF’s Sam Monson, Prescott went from leading the league in interceptions last season to having the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.4%) in the NFL this season. He faces a gassed Eagles defense coming off a season-low Defensive Success Rate (per ESPN Analytics) and a season-worst 8.0 yards per play.
At one point, the 49ers scored touchdowns on six consecutive possessions against the Eagles and went 4-for-4 in the red zone while converting 8 of 11 third downs. Philadelphia’s tackling was also suspect, as 32.5% of San Francisco’s yards (148 of 456) came after contact.
We also expect Philadelphia to keep up with the scoring, as it put up 28 points in the first meeting despite averaging just 3.3 yards per carry against a Cowboys defense that entered last week ranked in the top 10 in yards per carry to running backs.
This is a four-star play, as the Over has cashed in each of the last six meetings between these NFC East rivals.
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Eagles vs. Cowboys best odds
As Over backers, our go-to shop is BetRivers, as none of our other top sportsbooks offer a total as low as 52. We would only play this number up to 52.5 and would pass at 53, so be sure to shop around and take advantage of the best number.
Both teams are profitable to the Over this season, as Philadelphia has an O/U record of 7-5, and the Over has cashed in eight of Dallas’s 12 games.
The total has increased throughout the week from its opening number at all the top sportsbooks, with the biggest jump happening at FanDuel, which has gone from 49.5 to 52.5. The betting splits align with this movement, as 65% of the early wagers have backed the Over.
BetMGM is the only shop offering a spread of Cowboys -3, as all others are a half-point higher at -3.5. Sharp action is likely driving the movement on the point spread, as the Cowboys have gone through the key number of -3 from an opening number of -2.5 or -3 at all sportsbooks except for BetMGM, despite 51% of the wagers backing the Eagles. BetMGM got to -3.5 on Monday afternoon but has since lowered to -3.
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 10 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: Indoors
Eagles-Cowboys prediction made 12/6/2023 at 8:36 a.m. ET
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