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Commanders vs. Lions Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: NFL Divisional Round

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 18, 2025 12:41 PM EST • 3 min 44 sec read.

Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin and linebacker Bobby Wagner celebrate as we make our best Commanders vs. Lions player prop picks.
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin and linebacker Bobby Wagner celebrate after winning an NFC wild-card playoff against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images.

After reaching the NFC Championship Game last year, the Detroit Lions will attempt their climb back as they host the Washington Commanders tonight at 8 p.m. ET (FOX) at Ford Field.

Running back David Montgomery returns for the Lions this week, but I'm targeting his teammate as one of my best Commanders vs. Lions player prop picks for this NFC showdown.

Commanders vs. Lions player prop picks: NFL Divisional Round

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

  • Terry McLaurin touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 rushing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Commanders vs. Lions touchdown prediction

Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown scorer (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via Caesars | Implied probability: 43.48%

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After hauling in a touchdown last weekend, McLaurin has now scored in six of his last seven games. He led the Commanders with 13 touchdowns in the regular season and gets a solid matchup this week.

Though the Lions are allowing just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game this season, they’ve struggled in the back half of the year.

They allowed 1.7 passing touchdowns per game over their last three, despite not allowing a single one to Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold in Week 18. And while the Lions played Darnold well, they were aided by him missing some wide-open red-zone throws.

Considering how hot McLaurin has been, it’s surprising to see the price greater than +100. Caesars and FanDuel offer +130, so bet at either of those sportsbooks.

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Best Commanders vs. Lions prop picks

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 83.5 rushing yards (-109) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%

Gibbs doesn’t hit this number only if Montgomery returns and immediately receives his usual workload. But I think Montgomery will be used in a limited fashion this weekend, and Gibbs has proven that he’s more than capable of putting the run game on his back.

Gibbs rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the three games that Montgomery missed. He averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in two of those games, and he’s about to take on a defense that allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry this season. 

This prop is set between 81.5 and 84.5 at our best sports betting apps. Because I’m so confident in Gibbs this week, I’m taking the best price regardless of the total. Right now, the best price is -109 at Caesars.

Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 rushing yards (-113) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -113 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.05%

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Daniels hasn’t topped 40 yards in either of his last two games, but he has cleared 65 yards in three of his last five. This season, he’s topped 55 rushing yards in six games, and while the Lions allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing per game, they struggled a bit against mobile quarterbacks.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen ran for 68 yards against them, and Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson managed 61. Richardson’s numbers are a bit inflated since 35 of those yards came on the game's first drive. However, the numbers show that the Lions can give up big plays to quarterbacks who like to run, and Daniels hasn’t been shy about using his legs.

The total is set at either 54.5 or 55.5 at our best sportsbooks. Not only is FanDuel one of the sportsbooks offering the lowest total, but it’s also the only one offering a price better than -115.

Commanders vs. Lions expert picks & predictions

Commanders vs. Lions game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 18
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Lions -8.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

NFL Divisional Round expert picks

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.