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Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 18: Will ATS Woes Continue for Kansas City?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 7, 2023 7:12 AM EST • 2 min 36 sec read.

The Kansas City Chiefs might boast a dominant 13-3 record, but their recent run against the spread has left a lot to be desired. Can KC cover the number against the Las Vegas Raiders? Read on for our top Chiefs-Raiders NFL pick based on the top odds.

The Chiefs (13-3) should know by Saturday exactly what they’re playing for as uncertainty over the Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals postponement is expected to be clarified in the near future. Regardless of how the NFL intends to handle the situation, Kansas City should be motivated against a rival as it looks to lock down the AFC’s best winning percentage.

The Raiders (6-10) gave the San Francisco 49ers a scare behind Jarrett Stidham. Can the career backup put together another quality performance against a playoff-bound opponent? 

Here is our best Chiefs vs. Raiders NFL pick for Week 18 (odds via Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Game Info

Date: Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Weather: Dome

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 10-point road favorites and have moved between -9 and -9.5 at most sportsbooks. K.C. is drawing 56% of the cash and 54% of the tickets.

The total opened at 50.5 and has climbed to 52.5. The Over is still the popular pick, drawing 61% of the cash and 77% of the tickets.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick

Raiders +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Though there’s functionally nothing left to play for in Vegas this week, it feels noteworthy that the Raiders are 5-2 ATS in home games this season. They also proved themselves as capable competitors last week in the wake of the quarterback change from Derek Carr to Jarrett Stidham. An overtime loss to the 49ers certainly wasn’t on many bingo cards in Week 17.

This is also a rivalry in which the Raiders have been tossed around quite a bit in recent years, losing 16 of the last 19 meetings. So if you had any questions about what the Raiders’ motivation might look like, throw those out the window. Las Vegas lost the first meeting this season at Arrowhead Stadium, but covered the spread in a 30-29 defeat.

I like the Raiders here as the number just feels inflated given that four of Kansas City’s last five contests have been one-score games. The Chiefs have been abysmal for spread bettors this season at 5-10-1 ATS. That’s tied for the second-worst ATS record in the league. The Chiefs are 3-5 ATS in road games and are 2-3 ATS when favored by double-digits.

Though the Chiefs are still capable of making a Super Bowl run, they’ve played down to their competition on numerous occasions this season. The Raiders have some fight left in them as the team looks to keep Davante Adams and upcoming free agent Josh Jacobs invested amid a potentially murky future at the quarterback position.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Best Odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+9 (-110)+9.5 (-115)+8 (-110)+9.5 (-110)+8.5 (-110)

This spread has been on the move Saturday, and Caesars is offering the best number on the +9.5 spread. For comparison, BetMGM is also charging a -110 vig, but its spread is 1.5 points lower at +8. The importance of shopping for the best odds and line available couldn’t be more on display than it is here with the disparity across our top-rated shops.

Chiefs-Raiders pick made 1/5/2023 at 4:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.